the advantages of paying PC2

If I back one lumpy even money shot a week every week how am I getting 2-1?

Because if you are betting with money you've already won (through "nefarious" PC2 paying ways) any losses mean you avoid paying 60% on what you made before.

Say you've won 1,000 during the week (400 after charges)

Put it all on a bet at evens

If it wins you will get (after charges) 800

If it loses you get 0

I still don't get how that is 2-1 though, your example is evens surely, from 400-800. The fact the PC acts as a tidemark and means below that tidemark you are betting normally for a while doesn't mean you're getting better odds above true probability, you're getting normal odds that relative to what you normally have to pay when being charged PC, appear better.

If you're up 1,000 and put 400 on a 2.0 shot then

if it wins you'll end up with 560 after 60% pc

if it loses you'll end up with 240 after 60% pc

i.e. given you'd have collected 400 in the absence of this additional bet, you'll be £160 better off if it wins and £160 worse off if you lose.

Above ignores minimal normal commission side effects.

Nope, I just don't get it. To me for it to be 2-1 it would need to be a loss of 160 vs a potential gain of 320.

Yes you're right

All we're doing is taking out the 60%. You'd be just as well betting at evens somewhere else.

I think I get what you mean, its a relative action that occurs in the conditions of having charges calculated, very clever magician and a good I.Q. test for posters to see if they can spot the mechanism
your very sharp minded indeed!

I was saying you were getting evens an even money shot. Apologies if I didn't make that clear.

And YOU'RE not....[;)]

That was to bff...

Its a bit like pulling a rabbit out of a magicians hat when an even money is quoted as a 2/1 shot but if the magician fails to pull the rabbit out then you can bet he has a hat with a rabbit in it, or a loss that comes off his charge calculations !

Gerard shall I take it your in the BFF head shrinking sector of posters, unfortunately you just make me look brainier by acting so docile in your replies, so thank you to this sector of posters , you make me look so good[;)]

Magician said 2-1 for an evens shot Feck.

I think he's talking about what happens when you bet under the tidemark of what you have already paid PC on. But as stated previously, that isn't getting an even money shot at 2-1, that is simply getting your evens shot actually at evens. The point I think he is making is that whereas ordinarily your weekly evens shot becomes a 1.4 after PC, because you have already paid PC, then sustained some losses, it comes back to being evens again until you return over the tidemark. So the feel is a relative shift from backing an evens shot and getting 1.4, to backing evens and getting evens.

Or he could explain what he means!

Sumo seems the most right, but its relative, hell betfair just give us the keys and see if we can run betfair better for a couple of month

I think he's trying to flush out the gullible.

And I'm ashamed to say I fell for it until I thought about laying it off somewhere else, and realised I couldn't.

What I'd most like to know is why he has so many forum names with numbers after?

Just a point, many people are now in jail for causing riots and stealing millions of pounds in goods, surley they would of been better making a fair sporting exchange and creating there own premium charge
2, its a cunning plan

again its just a relative thought[;)]

The only "edge" here I can think of is that you can take your weekly profit and lump on. If you can lay it off elsewhere you won't lose much, just the commission. Over time this gets your commission ratio up. I need 1.3% more to get it over 5%, and reduce PC2 to 40%.

But because it's calculated on lifetime profits the numbers I need are big. It will take me a long time.

But the tidemark does at least protect from the risk of losing weeks, which are devastating given there is no refund.

ICS, my opening reply was to weatherman to show him his figures were wrong. I have no idea what magician is talking about.

OK. I'm sure he'll clarify it when the racing is done for the day.

PC means i need to bet more to win less...Their nothing good about it

Bit harsh. My numbers were right. They show an evens bet. 400 better, 400 worse.

Nairda what is your market interest?

nairda - are you still in Cyprus? I'm considering off loading my villa, unless I can find someone to rent it.

It has a "feature" which you might be interested in. I'll be out in November if you'd like to meet up.

Bit harsh. My numbers were right. They show an evens bet. 400 better, 400 worse.

But "If it wins you will get (after charges) 800" and "If it loses you get 0" are wrong.

I maintain that those are the right overall profit numbers for the week.

no,the greeks was driving me nuts....

if it wins you'll end up with 560 after 60% pc

if it loses you'll end up with 240 after 60% pc

All this does is restate my example with a 400 bet rather than 1,000. The only difference is you've used "end up with" as opposed to "get".

Shame. From what I gather about the way you bet, we could have swapped some ideas.

Apologies weatherman. I thought you were meaning put all of the £400 on.

All I can think magician is talking about is arbing with bookmakers (betfair owe you a "rebate" if the betfair end loses). I suppose you could call it an advantage with respect to paying 60% of your profits  mainly in pc's versus paying 60% of your profits all in normal commission but trying to get on with bookmakers is about as hard as trying to fool betfair you're a new customer.

I suppose it wouldn't be as hard for your average trader though.

have you had the villa rented out?  or your just using it for holidays?

Don't use the bloody thing at all.

It's empty 50 weeks of the year. I don't have any time to go there.

Bookmakers encourage people to lose, to play gambling machines that in my opinion should be in casinos
only and ferment a habit of continually looking for event adrenalin every so many seconds as if there matinée of an event sporting or simulated every 2-3 minutes wasn't enough! 

If your good enough beat there book system your booted out, no wonder there scared of betfair as there ethos and system is very clever and even if they do charge you more if your a high roller, there much
more honest a set-up then the bookmakers will ever be!

I suppose it wouldn't be as hard for your average trader though.

You mean because they don't care if the bets win or not?

I'm trying to work out how long it would take me to get my lifetime commission ratio over 5%. I think I'm looking at a number of years, which makes it an impractical exercise because the commission structure will almost certainly change in the interim.

Bookies pc2 is inbuilt into there books and should you afford it and manage a persist profit by a miracle of form evaluation , anyone winning more than a few grand will be told there being monitored as I have been and eventually closed down!

The point here is that PC2 creates an incentive to place bets elsewhere, regardless of whether they win or not.

Its just a charge, not a defining law of nature that zaps winners into anti-matter weatherman

weatherman, I was meaning from the point of view of getting the bets on. I've already had accounts restricted / closed with them all and have run out of friends and relatives cards.

Imagine a cake that double every 2 years, if you take a slice out from now on , 60% of it will be hollow but the cake keeps growing and you can take as big a slice as you can manage, is it really that bad a deal?

All I can think magician is talking about is arbing with bookmakers (betfair owe you a "rebate" if the betfair end loses). I suppose you could call it an advantage with respect to paying 60% of your profits  mainly in pc's versus paying 60% of your profits all in normal commission but trying to get on with bookmakers is about as hard as trying to fool betfair you're a new customer.

I should've pointed out you'd really need to be already due a rebate before doing this so you don't pay pc on the bet if the betfair end wins.

sorry doubles every 3 years whoops

Try and take some cake off the queen of hearts table at at ladbrokes and after your thrown out the door they will call you Alice through the looking glass for even daring[;)]

OK, if all I'm doing is arbing I'm unlikely to have much of an issue - a lot of my bets will lose. My account is not going to look very shrewd.

I looked at this before, as I'm sure a lot of people did when PC2 was announced, and concluded that any attempt at arbing would be a disaster if you won here and lost with the other side, but I failed to notice the "tidemark effect".

Betfair clearly love winners and there profits, customers clearly like betfairs liquidity and market lead,  let the games continue

bf_fananatic - you are making every thread unreadable whilst repeating the same points over & over with little reference to what the individual thread is about. It's no wonder several have blocked you. I will now do the same.

It does look like his specific aim on this thread is to hide the real message here.

Actually maybe we should let him.

Com on guys...

try harder

It might help if we knew what the question was magician. When I first read your opening post I thought betfair must have introduced rebates and scanned the other threads for the news.

Don't waste your time on this Feck (or anyone else) the OP obviously doesn't understand how the PC is implemented.  There is no "advantage" at all to paying the PC (unless you are deluded and consider martingale type staking to be an advantage).

After a losing week you've overpaid pc by 500. Following week you have one bet of a grand at evens. If it wins you near enough get the whole 1,000 if it loses they owe you a further 500.

2/1 an 1/1 shot??? An advantage of paying pc2??? I can just see the special offer addicts deserting bet.365 and heading for betfair in their droves. They should get the "cut out the middleman" mob on it right away.

Getafix, I'm sure the magician's got something up his sleeve (no pun intended). I just wish he'd hurry up and put me out of my misery.

THE MAGICIAN IS SWORN TO SECRECY BY THE INNER CIRCLE ,HES NOT ALLOWED TO TELL YOU HOW TO DO IT,HE CAN ONLY SHOW YOU IT

HE WONT TELL ME HOW TO SAW A HORSE IN HALF

I was hoping to be shot down in flames as an "advantage" would have been welcomed.  Feck, I think you are too kind to some posters lol... All I will say is "silence speaks volumes".

is it because say you're 200 up on the week & bet 100 at evens paying 50% if it loses you're 100 up week 50 after PC but if it wins you're 300 up after PC -150 after PC, so therefore you've bet 50 to win 100? (

ignore that, just another example of getting evens, 50 to win 50 ffs, too much beer

"Com on guys...try harder"

magican, can see how this work for 50% pc, but can no see how would work with 60% or 40%.  do you assume 50% pc?

ok with 60% pc you lose 100 or win 40 on even money chance.

if you lose 100, then next bet you either win 100 or lose 100.  if that win then bet 3 either win 40 or lose 100. 

but with bet 2, if bet 2 lose, then bet 3 either win 100 or lose 100.  so loss on bet 1 and bet 2 free up 60 each time, so you save 60 next bet each time.

if bet 2 lose, because you are long term winner you kind of lose 100, but free up 60 more pc, so you actually lose only 40.  if bet 2 win, you win 100 because of rebate system which is effectively in place.  so you are betting 40 to win 100.  which is 5 to 2.  i think magican is say something like this.

i think magican is right with 50% pc charge - bet 1 lose, so bet 2 is either lose 100 or win 100, and you in effect either lose only 50 (because it free up 50 in further rebate) or you win 100. 

is this right?

No, I covered that interpretation already.

cannot see in which post you say so inner city sumo.

inner city sumo
19 Aug 11 14:16 Joined: 18 Aug 02 | Topic/replies: 5,084 | Blogger: inner city sumo's blog
I still don't get how that is 2-1 though, your example is evens surely, from 400-800. The fact the PC acts as a tidemark and means below that tidemark you are betting normally for a while doesn't mean you're getting better odds above true probability, you're getting normal odds that relative to what you normally have to pay when being charged PC, appear better.
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inner city sumo
19 Aug 11 14:57 Joined: 18 Aug 02 | Topic/replies: 5,084 | Blogger: inner city sumo's blog
Nope, I just don't get it.  To me for it to be 2-1 it would need to be a loss of 160 vs a potential gain of 320.
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w
inner city sumo
19 Aug 11 15:30 Joined: 18 Aug 02 | Topic/replies: 5,084 | Blogger: inner city sumo's blog
Magician said 2-1 for an evens shot Feck.

I think he's talking about what happens when you bet under the tidemark of what you have already paid PC on. But as stated previously, that isn't getting an even money shot at 2-1, that is simply getting your evens shot actually at evens. The point I think he is making is that whereas ordinarily your weekly evens shot becomes a 1.4 after PC, because you have already paid PC, then sustained some losses, it comes back to being evens again until you return over the tidemark. So the feel is a relative shift from backing an evens shot and getting 1.4, to backing evens and getting evens.
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in none of your post inner city sumo do you say what i have say - that a loss of 100 with 50% pc is only really loss of 50 as you free up 50 more of extra pc rebate .  so if you place bet of 100 you win 100 or lose only 50 .  you do not say that anywhere!

There is no such thing as rebate. There are periods where you go back below what you have already paid PC on, but that is not rebate, that means you get evens about getting evens, that is not getting 2-1 about evens.

Let's work through what you say...

I have £1000. I bet £100 at Evens and lose. I now have £900.

I have £900. I bet £100 at Evens and lose. I now have £800.

I have £800. I bet £100 at Evens and win. I now have £900.

It acts as a tidemark. Just because you are now winning below that tidemark does not constitute a rebate- £60 is not being freed up- you've paid PC already on that level, so you are still getting evens about evens, until you go back above that tidemark.

ah, i see now where you are wrong.

each time you place lose bet, commission is paid.  what you fail to see is tidemark at point you pay pc at goes up each time you place lose bet.  your example are wrong because there is more to calculation than you think there is.

i think my example are right, your examples is wrong.

No, yours are wrong. PC tidemark is calculated on a weekly basis on Sunday night, regular commission is paid on every bet, but everything relating to PC happens Sunday night.

that is not relevant .

what if you only place one bets per week?  [;)]

not when u win all the time on one other market

and  just like a odd bet on footy  and your hit with pc and it a daylight robbbery

that sadly the down fall  of

trillions of turnover is else where  which i wish it was  here

sunday night losing  ££££ 

and got it back at 2 am on monday

it all ??????? while paying pc

If you place one bet a week you are in big trouble!

The time it's calculated is relevant. You might be 10k up on Saturday, if you lose that 10k on Sunday the only space you've bought on PC is your regular implied commission, rather than the 10k win you blew!

you introduce paremeter not relevant to question at top of thread innercitysumo. 

plus if you place one bet a week which win 50k each week, you are not in troubles

now  gained  a Phobia of betting

fear of losing

will not bet as 98% are losing

and having 40% to 60 % cut on footy    get over it

Of course the parameter is relevant because it reflects the environment.

If you place a 50k winning bet every week you're not in trouble if you're happy to pay 60% in PC2.

if u  place  a bet

wow   your better off  elsewhere without the worry of 60%

ok, arguments in thread

start of week - you have pay full pc.  now you place bet 1 of 100 at evens.  if win and is only bet of week you win 40 or lose 100. 

if you place only win bets in week, you keep 40% of total wins.

if bet 1 lose you then place bet 2.  either win 100 or lose 100 and you keep 100 if you win to take you back to start of week.  if you lose you lose 100, but you can then win 200 with no pc2.  so if you are long term winner who pay pc2 you will usually reach higher high tide mark each week.  having lose bet free up space.  so because you are likely to win all of that 200 back, if bet 2 win you win 100, but if bet 2 lose you lose 100 but gain 60 in term of extra potential winning on bet 3 before you have to pay pc.  answer to magician question is something along these line.  your thought on timing, environment, paremeter etcetera are red herings.

try this betfair says( taking too much out )

ok   let  try betting just £2  in one week while on pc and the take out is 1.20 pence in the one week

high roller  u joking

no way

it so  wrong somewhere

it better if  it just  the higher u earn  like

5%  200 a week

10%1000 a week

25% 10000 a week

60% 50000 a week

that sort of thing

ballabriggs

not if u win 500  on other market all the time and only lose 200 on footy

the tide  is always high

and  with  pc getting 150

the FEAR is here

Phobia
Phobia Phobia Phobia

gained a  Phobia  a fear


of BETTING

having a panic attack
   cant bet will not  bet 


maybe trade

60% is that of something better than nill it that they hoping that why we stay

ok, arguments in thread

start of week - you have pay full pc.  now you place bet 1 of 100 at evens.  if win and is only bet of week you win 40 or lose 100. 

if you place only win bets in week, you keep 40% of total wins.

if bet 1 lose you then place bet 2.  either win 100 or lose 100 and you keep 100 if you win to take you back to start of week.  if you lose you lose 100, but you can then win 200 with no pc2.  so if you are long term winner who pay pc2 you will usually reach higher high tide mark each week.  having lose bet free up space.  so because you are likely to win all of that 200 back, if bet 2 win you win 100, but if bet 2 lose you lose 100 but gain 60 in term of extra potential winning on bet 3 before you have to pay pc.


Bf_ fanantic,

Before you have to pay PC?!You've already paid PC for it! All your argument is, is they won't charge you twice on the same part of the tidemark. We know that. I addressed that on the first page. That doesn't change an Evens into a 2-1. It means you go back to an evens being evens for a while, rather than an evens being 1.4.

it all way over my small head anyway it too much

I just remembered this thread...........

So, did anybody get the answer?

Magician - are you going to spill the beans?

The only advantage is that losses are only 40%/50%/60%