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16 Aug 11
22:30
Joined:
Date Joined:
25 Sep 07
Obvious there has been lots of anecdotal evidence of the impact of the PC2.
I keep reading “Market XXX was small or down on last year’s similar week 1 premiership game.. etc etc”
So thought it was time to have a real look at the REAL figures.... so got the following extracted from database.
Below you will see ‘total matched’ for four 17 days periods, across the main sports and “other”
a) 2011 17 days prior to PC2
b) 2011 17 days after PC2
c) Same 17 days as (a) for 2010
d) Same 17 days as (b) for 2010
Naturally there are some seasonal or tournaments impacts that I have not stripped out... and as the day set grows form 17 to 30,60,90 these seasonal impacts will dissipate.
Superficially I dont see any vast negative impacts... unless some markets that seem marginally down, like for like 2011v 2011 or 2011 v 2010, have had significantly BETTER games in the post PC2 2011 period (or like for like period), and turnover is still down.
i.e I don’t know if the 19th July to 4th August in 2010 – had only ONE premier league week or not? Etc etc
Experts in those fields could comment.
But liquidity post PC2 looks pretty robust to me, on the surface...
Discuss...
I keep reading “Market XXX was small or down on last year’s similar week 1 premiership game.. etc etc”
So thought it was time to have a real look at the REAL figures.... so got the following extracted from database.
Below you will see ‘total matched’ for four 17 days periods, across the main sports and “other”
a) 2011 17 days prior to PC2
b) 2011 17 days after PC2
c) Same 17 days as (a) for 2010
d) Same 17 days as (b) for 2010
Naturally there are some seasonal or tournaments impacts that I have not stripped out... and as the day set grows form 17 to 30,60,90 these seasonal impacts will dissipate.
Superficially I dont see any vast negative impacts... unless some markets that seem marginally down, like for like 2011v 2011 or 2011 v 2010, have had significantly BETTER games in the post PC2 2011 period (or like for like period), and turnover is still down.
i.e I don’t know if the 19th July to 4th August in 2010 – had only ONE premier league week or not? Etc etc
Experts in those fields could comment.
But liquidity post PC2 looks pretty robust to me, on the surface...
Discuss...
Show More
*profitable
that word seems to choke out of me these days, cant imagine why
[;)]
that word seems to choke out of me these days, cant imagine why
[;)]
Ballbriggs
you might be correct in that the effects will not be felt for some time.... and I will conrinue to update and post the tables as I can compare larger and larger periods like for like.
I take offense however when you say "these tables are not right"
can you pleas point out which figure in these tables you dont agree with and what figure you have instead. if one or two are different from yuor totals I will go back and double check the data extract.
SO WHICH DATA POINTS ARE INCORRECT?
you might be correct in that the effects will not be felt for some time.... and I will conrinue to update and post the tables as I can compare larger and larger periods like for like.
I take offense however when you say "these tables are not right"
can you pleas point out which figure in these tables you dont agree with and what figure you have instead. if one or two are different from yuor totals I will go back and double check the data extract.
SO WHICH DATA POINTS ARE INCORRECT?
Feck
If they where adding mickey mouse bets to the Horse racing market I would notice.
They are not doing anything significant overnight... as pre last5minutes.com totals are consistent
And cant see mickey mouse seeding occurring in the last few minutes either... and think even if they tried that... they would get caned by the pros.
so agree it is possible.... but ill take 1.01 they are doing so
If they where adding mickey mouse bets to the Horse racing market I would notice.
They are not doing anything significant overnight... as pre last5minutes.com totals are consistent
And cant see mickey mouse seeding occurring in the last few minutes either... and think even if they tried that... they would get caned by the pros.
so agree it is possible.... but ill take 1.01 they are doing so
they would get caned by the pros.
magician, if you were on zero commission it would be p1ss easy to trade the figures up without showing a loss. Even easier if you can skip the queue, examine it before it becomes public or check who's matching your bet. Not saying they're doing any of that but there's a dog's chance and none of them being caned by the pros. I honestly expect such things to happen anyway once their sportsbook is under way.
magician, if you were on zero commission it would be p1ss easy to trade the figures up without showing a loss. Even easier if you can skip the queue, examine it before it becomes public or check who's matching your bet. Not saying they're doing any of that but there's a dog's chance and none of them being caned by the pros. I honestly expect such things to happen anyway once their sportsbook is under way.
During the cricket walkout after the introduction of PC1 there were 50-100k chunks appearing and getting almost instantly matched after liquidity had fallen to a tiny fraction of the usual numbers for a week or so.
Where these bets were coming from and who was matching them is of course a matter for speculation.
Where these bets were coming from and who was matching them is of course a matter for speculation.
magicman- sorry, i mean something different to what you think i have say. i am sure tables are right on surface, i mean picture is misleading looking at overall turnover. if peoples dont trust betfair (i mean not to make more change in future and maybe ban all winner in the end) then their behaviour will change over long run. pc2 means BIG BIG PROFITS now for david yu. but lots of peoples will keep betting even if they are not winning as much as before, or if they are losing a little bit. they hopes their luck might change? however, the more you push down an iceberg into the water, the less space there is for everyone to hold on, and soon some will let go. maybe your table give misleading picture, and better tables could be created, of commission paid on each market, and broken down to category of user based on return per pound after commission eg 95-100p per pound, 90-95p per pound users, under 90p users, 100p-105p users etc.
What sort of effect will the recently ended summer promo have had? From my own point of view, I could see the top target was out of reach, but could also see with increased turnover that the 3rd target was possible so I did just that to get the bonus. BF's figs since July 18th will have been boosted to some extent by others like me who were going for a bonus payment.
Lori, would you agree the prices of those 50-100k offers when they first started appearing suggested the person behind them hadn't played the market before?
how much do you all make a week on horse betting? be honest
On this whole seeding / toying with numbers argument...
1 - Every trade on betfair is public information. I'm sure it would be illegal for them to publish false volume data (CEO's very much care about keeping their arses out of court / jail).
2 - Publishing false volume would not lead to £ profits, which is what they are in the business of making
3 - They have made a fair few statements about she restrictive conditions when they will participate in a market and these have been made in their prospectus etc. I suspect increasing this to include many markets would be perceived as a material change in their course of business by investors, and they should be notified (as I read the last annual report there was none of this).
1 - Every trade on betfair is public information. I'm sure it would be illegal for them to publish false volume data (CEO's very much care about keeping their arses out of court / jail).
2 - Publishing false volume would not lead to £ profits, which is what they are in the business of making
3 - They have made a fair few statements about she restrictive conditions when they will participate in a market and these have been made in their prospectus etc. I suspect increasing this to include many markets would be perceived as a material change in their course of business by investors, and they should be notified (as I read the last annual report there was none of this).
betfair did not notify about skimbot martinch. they made hundreds of thousands of pounds, and did not tell peoples. do you really think they tell peoples everything,....?
betfair didn't tell us about booking high rollers, only after betfair stop it did they report
whats skimbot? is that the same as X matching?
They did highroller before it became a public company... it is fully disclosed in the prospectus
They did highroller before it became a public company... it is fully disclosed in the prospectus
martinch, the original skimbot did not give best execution to people who asked for a price for a runner (when they could have been matched at their offer by laying the other / all the other runners).
It now gives something approaching best execution but does not improve the exact reciprocal price.
Paulme, if you really want to win, rather than to bleat/to doubt others win/to feel envious of winners and sorry for yourself, decide on a realistic target in relation to your bank and set about winning it. Reverse-engineer what you have to do to win. On horses, suppose that a truly excellent judge willing to undergo a fair amount of variance has a 12.5% edge per bet.
The people winning six fig. amounts of money will have as low as a 0.3% advantage per bet (but will be making v.many bets). Their banks will be much larger than yours, but this is an advantage for you as you will be able to get filled in at much lower volume.
Collect all the data, try out a few hypotheses to see whether systems return that sort of advantage, find a few you are comfortable with and start playing y/s.
It now gives something approaching best execution but does not improve the exact reciprocal price.
Paulme, if you really want to win, rather than to bleat/to doubt others win/to feel envious of winners and sorry for yourself, decide on a realistic target in relation to your bank and set about winning it. Reverse-engineer what you have to do to win. On horses, suppose that a truly excellent judge willing to undergo a fair amount of variance has a 12.5% edge per bet.
The people winning six fig. amounts of money will have as low as a 0.3% advantage per bet (but will be making v.many bets). Their banks will be much larger than yours, but this is an advantage for you as you will be able to get filled in at much lower volume.
Collect all the data, try out a few hypotheses to see whether systems return that sort of advantage, find a few you are comfortable with and start playing y/s.
But they did inform us of X matching, in both forms, didn't they?
I can find this:
http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/03/15/new-betfair-bet-matching-system-is-a-step-backwards/
I have wondered how much they make on the X matching... lots and lots of slivers of a penny
I can find this:
http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/03/15/new-betfair-bet-matching-system-is-a-step-backwards/
I have wondered how much they make on the X matching... lots and lots of slivers of a penny
They didn't inform us of it until WillJons spotted it and wrote a thread about it.
.
http://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23542162/curious-about-some-odd-activity-at-betfair?sort_order=DESC&pg=48
http://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23542162/curious-about-some-odd-activity-at-betfair?sort_order=DESC&pg=48
wow... I never knew about that (I *think* the first I heard of it was an email from them).
I stand corrected.
I stand corrected.
good post magician
id keep an open mind regarding your term 'FACTUAL'
Martinch has just had his eyes opened as to the contempt and arrogance this outfit has for their customers - so if its their database, they can make it say what they like!
Worse corporate measures than this, occur all the time
id keep an open mind regarding your term 'FACTUAL'
Martinch has just had his eyes opened as to the contempt and arrogance this outfit has for their customers - so if its their database, they can make it say what they like!
Worse corporate measures than this, occur all the time
Birch2
They 'could' make it say what they like... except I monitor many of the markets live bet by bet.... so they cant lie on those sports... and to date they have not...
they could pump them up with real bets... but to make an impact they would leave lose loads of cash to the Pros... so cant see them doing that either.
They 'could' make it say what they like... except I monitor many of the markets live bet by bet.... so they cant lie on those sports... and to date they have not...
they could pump them up with real bets... but to make an impact they would leave lose loads of cash to the Pros... so cant see them doing that either.
when betfair will get 60% of the pro cash, it be good risk to take later on ...10 i win 4 i lose on even money bets
magician
do you think that their 'tekkie' people could bet & lay their own amounts, w/o leaving loads of cash for the pros?
do you think that their 'tekkie' people could bet & lay their own amounts, w/o leaving loads of cash for the pros?
Katverrat
no I don't think they are the sophisticated... and even that would show up as spikes in matched volume at sub second level, and that is not really happening
certainly not more than previously i.e the occasional big bet is matched between refresehes that that is not seen (by me as money on the screen) but I am sure it WAS money on the screen, it is just that you cant see everything....
no I don't think they are the sophisticated... and even that would show up as spikes in matched volume at sub second level, and that is not really happening
certainly not more than previously i.e the occasional big bet is matched between refresehes that that is not seen (by me as money on the screen) but I am sure it WAS money on the screen, it is just that you cant see everything....
"when betfair will get 60% of the pro cash, it be good risk to take later on ...10 i win 4 i lose on even money bets "
to pay 60% , you have to win more than 97.5% of your bets. so if you can place bet lose 10 or win 4 which you win 97.5% of the time, sounds like good bets to make[;)]
to pay 60% , you have to win more than 97.5% of your bets. so if you can place bet lose 10 or win 4 which you win 97.5% of the time, sounds like good bets to make
[;)]
if you are a 60% PC payer...
now even money chances are really 6/4 ( minus you normal com rate
now even money chances are really 6/4 ( minus you normal com rate
I hate to keep sounding like I am pro pc as I dont like being charged as much as anyone and really I
have no right to argue with those that have to pay it when I dont but my general point is that
if your clever surely persons can still make profits and increase them and if there liquidity is doubling and sometimes tripling every 3 years then thats around 27%-40% increased liquidity per year which will raise pro payers matched amounts and offset the charge pretty soon more so if one expands range of markets and/or bets in markets!
Its all relative and just needs putting into perspective, and ok betfair are getting big payments
and that money does not end up in customers bank accounts but that creates a healthy system of reliance and ensures the longevity of the eco-system and the acceptance of persistent winners as to ban them now would cut off betfairs extra profits, also betfair can hopefully use this extra income to further increase there growth and better deals for new and existing customers.
have no right to argue with those that have to pay it when I dont but my general point is that
if your clever surely persons can still make profits and increase them and if there liquidity is doubling and sometimes tripling every 3 years then thats around 27%-40% increased liquidity per year which will raise pro payers matched amounts and offset the charge pretty soon more so if one expands range of markets and/or bets in markets!
Its all relative and just needs putting into perspective, and ok betfair are getting big payments
and that money does not end up in customers bank accounts but that creates a healthy system of reliance and ensures the longevity of the eco-system and the acceptance of persistent winners as to ban them now would cut off betfairs extra profits, also betfair can hopefully use this extra income to further increase there growth and better deals for new and existing customers.
ballabriggs
19 Aug 11 11:43
"when betfair will get 60% of the pro cash, it be good risk to take later on ...10 i win 4 i lose on even money bets "
to pay 60% , you have to win more than 97.5% of your bets. so if you can place bet lose 10 or win 4 which you win 97.5% of the time, sounds like good bets to make
ballabriggs, you clearly don't understand how the PC2 works, so maybe tou should stp commenting on it all the time.
19 Aug 11 11:43
"when betfair will get 60% of the pro cash, it be good risk to take later on ...10 i win 4 i lose on even money bets "
to pay 60% , you have to win more than 97.5% of your bets. so if you can place bet lose 10 or win 4 which you win 97.5% of the time, sounds like good bets to make
ballabriggs, you clearly don't understand how the PC2 works, so maybe tou should stp commenting on it all the time.
Magician, when are the next 3 month reports due to be published?
They 'could' make it say what they like... except I monitor many of the markets live bet by bet.... so they cant lie on those sports... and to date they have not...
they could pump them up with real bets... but to make an impact they would leave lose loads of cash to the Pros... so cant see them doing that either.
Magician, you cannot be serious. You'll be telling us next you know when Adam Heathcote goes on holiday. At zero percent commission betfair could bump up turnover and break even without even resorting to front running or queue peeking.
they could pump them up with real bets... but to make an impact they would leave lose loads of cash to the Pros... so cant see them doing that either.
Magician, you cannot be serious. You'll be telling us next you know when Adam Heathcote goes on holiday. At zero percent commission betfair could bump up turnover and break even without even resorting to front running or queue peeking.
By the way, banning all the pc2 payers because they do nothing more than win would actually cripple betfair as there exchange is totally different to a conventional bookmaker. without there liquidy value
the amount of matched bets would slow down which will effect all there charging systems and flaten there current profit margins, If the start to match the bets themselves then they cannot claim to be an exchange anymore and being a bookmaker they would have to drop prices, ban all winners etc
Under these conditions there longevity would be months not years as a profitable company
perhaps the best option was to charge the winners more and keep them on there side but it
is certainly a risky move by them raising the bar on charges!
the amount of matched bets would slow down which will effect all there charging systems and flaten there current profit margins, If the start to match the bets themselves then they cannot claim to be an exchange anymore and being a bookmaker they would have to drop prices, ban all winners etc
Under these conditions there longevity would be months not years as a profitable company
perhaps the best option was to charge the winners more and keep them on there side but it
is certainly a risky move by them raising the bar on charges!
can anybody post a single piece of evidence that that's actually happening, as opposed to convoluted speculation that it could be?
Well I am thinking of selling crystal balls to all the customers, not to be used for predicting the winners of races but to find out how much we can be expected to be charged for winning, what betfair will do next, what betfair want from us, what there share vale is, whos in charge of them and
i reckon my clairvoyant equipment may be the only way to find out and will sell like hot cakes[;)]
i reckon my clairvoyant equipment may be the only way to find out and will sell like hot cakes[;)]
One thing that is certain is that betfair will continue to be successful, how much success they afford others will be a different matter
pres, I'm not saying it's happening. I'm saying that if they needed to manipulate the figures they could and would have every reason to do so.
We seem to be mainly at loggerheads these days magician. Please do not take it personally. I have to call these things as I see them.
Also pres, if they were manipulating them, evidence wouldn't exist (outside of a confession) because of the inclusion of ping-pong money in betfair's figures.
4 weeks now of 'like 4 like' data - enjoy
| market | *2010 22nd June to 18th July | *2011 21st June to 17th July | *2010 19th July to 14th August | *2011 18th July to 13th August |
| Racing | 173193330 | 207474967 | 235696207 | 224823676 |
| Racing | 233667433 | 262355526 | 268262629 | 274832309 |
| Racing | 265593323 | 270291956 | 237172993 | 239428121 |
| Racing | 248625191 | 266720408 | 190073001 | 189949490 |
| Basketball | 603182 | 3131207 | 1614370 | 2231636 |
| Basketball | 2998784 | 6079156 | 1981741 | 1044464 |
| Basketball | 4535144 | 4356091 | 2241281 | 1051043 |
| Basketball | 4588200 | 2683569 | 2044001 | 1079473 |
| Cricket | 30650129 | 28752390 | 27760354 | 46746527 |
| Cricket | 46788233 | 70647461 | 40544508 | 65089622 |
| Cricket | 54937944 | 108999010 | 38386053 | 57227222 |
| Cricket | 38383120 | 59957170 | 24436407 | 72512980 |
| Golf | 3776828 | 4969318 | 5323529 | 3709932 |
| Golf | 7245676 | 4369428 | 7044625 | 5326052 |
| Golf | 6306862 | 7193612 | 7331986 | 7375197 |
| Golf | 30507071 | 29924707 | 18435627 | 18656876 |
| Greyhounds | 8742428 | 9848900 | 10578100 | 11135488 |
| Greyhounds | 12808598 | 12120335 | 12938977 | 12512774 |
| Greyhounds | 11871820 | 12099819 | 13075536 | 11951211 |
| Greyhounds | 12301352 | 12657297 | 10721403 | 10746202 |
| Other | 9718283 | 8826635 | 33202629 | 31033210 |
| Other | 19257592 | 30356207 | 28328571 | 24050852 |
| Other | 19879678 | 20249010 | 21794305 | 23556833 |
| Other | 18397438 | 20467587 | 9906373 | 11730367 |
| Soccer | 452392262 | 96528042 | 91508505 | 128281757 |
| Soccer | 495952067 | 152254184 | 144499104 | 174267101 |
| Soccer | 244499961 | 184199711 | 168377573 | 200642731 |
| Soccer | 167020109 | 191554032 | 122684549 | 156315863 |
| Tennis | 236603781 | 396835796 | 163674409 | 166473088 |
| Tennis | 264054047 | 416790320 | 175788201 | 198156286 |
| Tennis | 165645175 | 252704215 | 149452169 | 161357835 |
| Tennis | 177276303 | 218201300 | 202212471 | 197594653 |
perhaps obviously (or not) the 4 weeks are posted in order - top to bottom
By my calculations, comparing the 2011 before/after July 18 figures (aka Cols 3&5):
12 Ups
20 Drops
Segments on average Down by 20,084,840
Damning figures.
12 Ups
20 Drops
Segments on average Down by 20,084,840
Damning figures.
JFC
what do you get if you do the samne analysis for colums 1 and 4 :o)
(obviously soccer world cup needs to be discounted)
what do you get if you do the samne analysis for colums 1 and 4 :o)
(obviously soccer world cup needs to be discounted)
Ok here goes..using Magician's figures and excluding soccer because of the WC
Tennis.......down 25.5%
Greyhounds...down 3.3%
Other........down 25.6%
Golf.........down 4.2%
Cricket........up 13.2%
Basketball...down 28.6%
Horse Racing.down 8.8%
Overall......down 16.6% (slightly worse than last set of figures)
Caveat...I accept no resposibility if I have made a typo
Tennis.......down 25.5%
Greyhounds...down 3.3%
Other........down 25.6%
Golf.........down 4.2%
Cricket........up 13.2%
Basketball...down 28.6%
Horse Racing.down 8.8%
Overall......down 16.6% (slightly worse than last set of figures)
Caveat...I accept no resposibility if I have made a typo
"Overall......down 16.6% (slightly worse than last set of figures)" :O
oh well. at least david yu is staying and not bailing ship,..
oh well. at least david yu is staying and not bailing ship,..
I understand why Betfair have done what they've done... they thought it's going to raise extra revenue, but I don't understand why they completely lost sight of the bigger picture. If this measure doesn't bring in more cash in the short term, then it sure as dammit won't in the long term.
Said this before because I totally believe it and am saying it again in light of these figures. Fundamentally a betting exchange is the epitome of a free market and a free market works best with low taxation and incentivising business. They tipped the line with this super charge which was badly, and I expect far too hastily thought through. I'm sure there are plenty of people in the company that realise they've made a massive balls up.
I can't imagine too, how the majority of those people affected don't feel exploited and a large percentage of those affected are among the most important customers Betfair has. I know you need liquidity providers and recreational punters, but liquidity providers are more important per head, it's much harder and there are far fewer of them. Just like in the economy there are businesses and customers, but it's businesses that leads a country to wealth and every country knows first and foremost they need to encourage business. I know the exchange concept is unique in that given free trade it's very hard for it not to tend towards a natural monopoly and Betfair dominates as things stand, but I find it bizarre how a business thinks the best way to move forward is to alienate so many of it's most important customers who are only betting here because they have to, whereas they used to bet here because they wanted to. The brand suffers and the image suffers. It's marketing niche in the betting sector is built on it being a value product (albeit less value than it was as higher charges kick in), but it was a value product and the punters' champion. They stopped being the punters' champion around 2006/2007.
There are some people who believe in the mantra (fair) winning business is bad for business on here. I don't know if some people in Betfair believe that but it's on the whole rubbish imo.
Said this before because I totally believe it and am saying it again in light of these figures. Fundamentally a betting exchange is the epitome of a free market and a free market works best with low taxation and incentivising business. They tipped the line with this super charge which was badly, and I expect far too hastily thought through. I'm sure there are plenty of people in the company that realise they've made a massive balls up.
I can't imagine too, how the majority of those people affected don't feel exploited and a large percentage of those affected are among the most important customers Betfair has. I know you need liquidity providers and recreational punters, but liquidity providers are more important per head, it's much harder and there are far fewer of them. Just like in the economy there are businesses and customers, but it's businesses that leads a country to wealth and every country knows first and foremost they need to encourage business. I know the exchange concept is unique in that given free trade it's very hard for it not to tend towards a natural monopoly and Betfair dominates as things stand, but I find it bizarre how a business thinks the best way to move forward is to alienate so many of it's most important customers who are only betting here because they have to, whereas they used to bet here because they wanted to. The brand suffers and the image suffers. It's marketing niche in the betting sector is built on it being a value product (albeit less value than it was as higher charges kick in), but it was a value product and the punters' champion. They stopped being the punters' champion around 2006/2007.
There are some people who believe in the mantra (fair) winning business is bad for business on here. I don't know if some people in Betfair believe that but it's on the whole rubbish imo.
Interesting post CLYDEBANK29. Are there any other exchanges in the world where active and successful users - who are largely liquidity providers - are penalised? I’d be interested to know.
In my case, I haven’t bet here since the Wimbledon final (around that time they announced the new charge being introduced on 18th July). I can’t see how anyone would pay 40-60% (maybe some are).
It further demoralises normal PC payers from continuing to use the site and will continue to have a slow drain on the exchange as whole. If I was a normal PC payer I would be actively looking to change my habits and move away before getting anywhere near the top PC bracket.
I presume from all this that Betfair are expecting reduced liquidity and increased revenues (not from the higher PC payers - any tax over 50% will be actively avoided, it’s human nature - but from Betfair taking a more active role in their markets). The problem with this could be that they’re left with a site that:
(i) no longer attracts previous core users who want a purely exchange model and a largely level playing field, and
(ii) continues to receive a lukewarm response from the casual punter due to many features being unnecessary and overly complicated.
I will be interested in the outcome not for financial reasons as all my activity has ceased, but because I’ve spent a lot of time here in the past. Whilst I’ve done OK here over the years, I generally presumed it was a fairly symbiotic relationship between my activity and the success of Betfair. I was obviously mistaken and have effectively been shown the door.
In my case, I haven’t bet here since the Wimbledon final (around that time they announced the new charge being introduced on 18th July). I can’t see how anyone would pay 40-60% (maybe some are).
It further demoralises normal PC payers from continuing to use the site and will continue to have a slow drain on the exchange as whole. If I was a normal PC payer I would be actively looking to change my habits and move away before getting anywhere near the top PC bracket.
I presume from all this that Betfair are expecting reduced liquidity and increased revenues (not from the higher PC payers - any tax over 50% will be actively avoided, it’s human nature - but from Betfair taking a more active role in their markets). The problem with this could be that they’re left with a site that:
(i) no longer attracts previous core users who want a purely exchange model and a largely level playing field, and
(ii) continues to receive a lukewarm response from the casual punter due to many features being unnecessary and overly complicated.
I will be interested in the outcome not for financial reasons as all my activity has ceased, but because I’ve spent a lot of time here in the past. Whilst I’ve done OK here over the years, I generally presumed it was a fairly symbiotic relationship between my activity and the success of Betfair. I was obviously mistaken and have effectively been shown the door.
Are there any other exchanges in the world where active and successful users - who are largely liquidity providers - are penalised? I’d be interested to know.
If anything they will be thinking of commission reductions and incentives to stick offers up. It's a different set of rules they have to play by though as Betfair is the price maker.
If anything they will be thinking of commission reductions and incentives to stick offers up. It's a different set of rules they have to play by though as Betfair is the price maker.
Ok here goes..using Magician's figures and excluding soccer because of the WC
Tennis.......down 25.5%
Greyhounds...down 3.3%
Other........down 25.6%
Golf.........down 4.2%
Cricket........up 13.2%
Basketball...down 28.6%
Horse Racing.down 8.8%
Overall......down 16.6% (slightly worse than last set of figures)
is that the decline for 2011 or 2010
Tennis.......down 25.5%
Greyhounds...down 3.3%
Other........down 25.6%
Golf.........down 4.2%
Cricket........up 13.2%
Basketball...down 28.6%
Horse Racing.down 8.8%
Overall......down 16.6% (slightly worse than last set of figures)
is that the decline for 2011 or 2010
that's the relative increase or decrease in turnover for 2011 in the 4 weeks after the 18th July 2011 to the four weeks before the 18th July 2011
compared to
to the relative increase or decrease in turnover for the equivalent periods in 2010.
So for example in 2010 if turnover increased by 5% in the 4 weeks after the 18th July 2010 compared to the 4 weeks before it and in 2011 turnover decreased by 5% in the 4 weeks from the 18th July 2011 compared to the 4 weeks before that....the relative effect (comparative decline from 2010 to 2011) would be a decline of 10%
compared to
to the relative increase or decrease in turnover for the equivalent periods in 2010.
So for example in 2010 if turnover increased by 5% in the 4 weeks after the 18th July 2010 compared to the 4 weeks before it and in 2011 turnover decreased by 5% in the 4 weeks from the 18th July 2011 compared to the 4 weeks before that....the relative effect (comparative decline from 2010 to 2011) would be a decline of 10%
I don't know why anybody bothers looking at these figures. If you stripped all two way trades from the figures the turnover would plummet but the liquidity would pretty much stay the same. If the figures showed an increase you could say betfair were playing ping-pong to boost them, if they show a decrease you could say some 60%ers have jacked it but there's been no decrease in real liquidity. A pointless exercise.
Feck you have to use what there is and that is the only measure we have. It's speculation to suggest what type of turnover that has been lost and imo commission will be lost along the same lines. If its premium charge payers that they've lost then they've also lost their original pc1 payments. Secondly, if ping pong money is easy to win then you could argue it will suffer the least and it's those people that price whole markets up and gambling that will suffer the most as it takes much more effort. I can speak for myself to echo that stance as since the PC2 has been introduced, apart from a one week exception, I've virtually just done a little ping ponging or nothing at all.
I suppose ping-pong money would be the least likely to go Clydebank.
CLYDEBANK29
good post at 13:01. The exchange's monopoly position is what throws a spanner in the works. Without that Betfair would never have dreamed of doing this.
good post at 13:01. The exchange's monopoly position is what throws a spanner in the works. Without that Betfair would never have dreamed of doing this.
Clydebank, imv it's very hard for any kind of betting company to think of its clients in terms of either liquidity providers (i.e. suppliers) or punters (i.e. end customers).
It's more natural for them to think of anyone with an accnt. as a bettor and to be nettled at the amount that some bettors are taking them for (and e.g. to compare the profits of the most profitable players w/ those of the platform provider).
It's then inevitable that bf will begin to think how they can claw some of the money back.
I can accept that pc2 was hastily conceived and was intended partly to help project a trajectory of profit growth for the City, but my sense is that a strong motivation in some parts of the company was simply to do as well as big winners (or to stop them betting on terms where bf got the worse of the implicit profit share arrangement).
My suspicion all along with the new charges is that they wd be happy w/ 3-5 major liquidity providers per major sport on one side and a mass of price-taking recreational punters on the other. Why shd they accommodate anyone else at a rate of comm. to profit of less than 40%
It's more natural for them to think of anyone with an accnt. as a bettor and to be nettled at the amount that some bettors are taking them for (and e.g. to compare the profits of the most profitable players w/ those of the platform provider).
It's then inevitable that bf will begin to think how they can claw some of the money back.
I can accept that pc2 was hastily conceived and was intended partly to help project a trajectory of profit growth for the City, but my sense is that a strong motivation in some parts of the company was simply to do as well as big winners (or to stop them betting on terms where bf got the worse of the implicit profit share arrangement).
My suspicion all along with the new charges is that they wd be happy w/ 3-5 major liquidity providers per major sport on one side and a mass of price-taking recreational punters on the other. Why shd they accommodate anyone else at a rate of comm. to profit of less than 40%
Can anybody get the alternative figures for purple? Now that would be interesting.....
You'd have to strip out the made up money from the Duck's figures first ie the first 20k matched on every race, every day.
I think you may be looking at the matched bet volumes too soon. Are you sure that potential PC payers are actually paying the increased costs yet?
So I'm on the 40% charge (lifetime commission was around 35%), but due to the way Betfair calculated the lifetime charges and added in the one-off 'total charges', it put me on 41.9%, giving me a small buffer against the new fees.
Since the 18th of July, my commission rate has been about 21%. The premium portal page reports my lifetime charges as 40.97% - i.e. I'm pretty quickly eating into this 'buffer' before I start to pay the charges. At this rate, I have maybe six more weeks before I start to pay Betfair more money.
Other PC2 payers are probably in a similar situation - and I'm guessing that most won't really start changing their betting behaviour until they have to pay the new fees. So the betting patterns might not significantly change yet.
So I'm on the 40% charge (lifetime commission was around 35%), but due to the way Betfair calculated the lifetime charges and added in the one-off 'total charges', it put me on 41.9%, giving me a small buffer against the new fees.
Since the 18th of July, my commission rate has been about 21%. The premium portal page reports my lifetime charges as 40.97% - i.e. I'm pretty quickly eating into this 'buffer' before I start to pay the charges. At this rate, I have maybe six more weeks before I start to pay Betfair more money.
Other PC2 payers are probably in a similar situation - and I'm guessing that most won't really start changing their betting behaviour until they have to pay the new fees. So the betting patterns might not significantly change yet.
(Incidentally, although everyone on here seems to call it PC2, it appears Betfair label it PC3. Was PC2 when they changed the original premium charge to account for lifetime betting, rather than 60 weeks?)
do you have an update magician?
some people are reporting a drop in liquidity, maybe due to the recession like economics, or maybe for other reasons, such as a "big bot" moving off.
some people are reporting a drop in liquidity, maybe due to the recession like economics, or maybe for other reasons, such as a "big bot" moving off.
Hazel
I will try and rerun them tomorrow with anothe like for like comparison...
chase me in 2 days if they dont arrive
I will try and rerun them tomorrow with anothe like for like comparison...
chase me in 2 days if they dont arrive
Missing your data magician, its been quite interesting for us data junkies, looking forward to the update.
bf_fanatic
PM me perhap we can work on some data analysis together...
PM me perhap we can work on some data analysis together...
there will be a delay on this...
but chase early next week
but chase early next week
Go WILD everyone..... they look good to me
sport
*2010 26th April to 18th July || 4,008,637,103 || 2,749,193,868 || 102,111,159 || 620,336,568 || 3,041,806,933 || 152,414,133 || 137,826,967 304,805,405 || 11,117,132,137
*2010 19th July to 10th October || 3,083,207,724 || 2,347,847,261 || 116,817,151 || 506,215,477 || 2,785,312,346 || 148,967,907 || 90,254,364 312,644,813 || 9,391,267,043
|| || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || ||
*2011 25th April to 17th July || 2,772,368,307 || 3,597,405,256 || 119,316,077 || 1,167,173,758 || 3,381,828,258 || 144,541,774 || 142,907,830 287,683,354 || 11,613,224,615
*2011 18th July to 9th October || 3,465,785,233 || 2,526,658,614 || 72,998,288 || 959,342,770 || 2,767,445,467 || 141,863,587 || 92,553,940 350,169,404 || 10,376,817,304
sport
| Soccer | Tennis | Golf | Cricket | Horse Racing | Greyhounds | Basketball Other |
*2010 26th April to 18th July || 4,008,637,103 || 2,749,193,868 || 102,111,159 || 620,336,568 || 3,041,806,933 || 152,414,133 || 137,826,967 304,805,405 || 11,117,132,137
*2010 19th July to 10th October || 3,083,207,724 || 2,347,847,261 || 116,817,151 || 506,215,477 || 2,785,312,346 || 148,967,907 || 90,254,364 312,644,813 || 9,391,267,043
|| || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || ||
*2011 25th April to 17th July || 2,772,368,307 || 3,597,405,256 || 119,316,077 || 1,167,173,758 || 3,381,828,258 || 144,541,774 || 142,907,830 287,683,354 || 11,613,224,615
*2011 18th July to 9th October || 3,465,785,233 || 2,526,658,614 || 72,998,288 || 959,342,770 || 2,767,445,467 || 141,863,587 || 92,553,940 350,169,404 || 10,376,817,304
|| sport || Soccer || Tennis || Golf || Cricket || Horse Racing || Greyhounds || Basketball Other || Totals
|| *2010 26th April to 18th July || 4,008,637,103 || 2,749,193,868 || 102,111,159 || 620,336,568 || 3,041,806,933 || 152,414,133 || 137,826,967 304,805,405 || 11,117,132,137
|| *2010 19th July to 10th October || 3,083,207,724 || 2,347,847,261 || 116,817,151 || 506,215,477 || 2,785,312,346 || 148,967,907 || 90,254,364 312,644,813 || 9,391,267,043
|| || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || ||
|| *2011 25th April to 17th July || 2,772,368,307 || 3,597,405,256 || 119,316,077 || 1,167,173,758 || 3,381,828,258 || 144,541,774 || 142,907,830 287,683,354 || 11,613,224,615
|| *2011 18th July to 9th October || 3,465,785,233 || 2,526,658,614 || 72,998,288 || 959,342,770 || 2,767,445,467 || 141,863,587 || 92,553,940 350,169,404 || 10,376,817,304
| sport | Soccer | Tennis | Golf | Cricket | Horse Racing | Greyhounds | Basketball Other |
|| *2010 26th April to 18th July || 4,008,637,103 || 2,749,193,868 || 102,111,159 || 620,336,568 || 3,041,806,933 || 152,414,133 || 137,826,967 304,805,405 || 11,117,132,137
|| *2010 19th July to 10th October || 3,083,207,724 || 2,347,847,261 || 116,817,151 || 506,215,477 || 2,785,312,346 || 148,967,907 || 90,254,364 312,644,813 || 9,391,267,043
|| || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || ||
|| *2011 25th April to 17th July || 2,772,368,307 || 3,597,405,256 || 119,316,077 || 1,167,173,758 || 3,381,828,258 || 144,541,774 || 142,907,830 287,683,354 || 11,613,224,615
|| *2011 18th July to 9th October || 3,465,785,233 || 2,526,658,614 || 72,998,288 || 959,342,770 || 2,767,445,467 || 141,863,587 || 92,553,940 350,169,404 || 10,376,817,304
| sport | Soccer | Tennis | Golf | Cricket | Horse Racing | Greyhounds | Basketball Other | Totals |
|| *2010 26th April to 18th July || 4,008,637,103 || 2,749,193,868 || 102,111,159 || 620,336,568 || 3,041,806,933 || 152,414,133 || 137,826,967 304,805,405 || 11,117,132,137 ||
|| *2010 19th July to 10th October || 3,083,207,724 || 2,347,847,261 || 116,817,151 || 506,215,477 || 2,785,312,346 || 148,967,907 || 90,254,364 312,644,813 || 9,391,267,043 ||
|| || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || ||
|| *2011 25th April to 17th July || 2,772,368,307 || 3,597,405,256 || 119,316,077 || 1,167,173,758 || 3,381,828,258 || 144,541,774 || 142,907,830 287,683,354 || 11,613,224,615 ||
|| *2011 18th July to 9th October || 3,465,785,233 || 2,526,658,614 || 72,998,288 || 959,342,770 || 2,767,445,467 || 141,863,587 || 92,553,940 350,169,404 || 10,376,817,304 ||
sport
*2010 26th April to 18th July || 4,008,637,103 || 2,749,193,868 || 102,111,159 || 620,336,568 || 3,041,806,933 || 152,414,133 || 137,826,967 304,805,405 || 11,117,132,137 ||
*2010 19th July to 10th October || 3,083,207,724 || 2,347,847,261 || 116,817,151 || 506,215,477 || 2,785,312,346 || 148,967,907 || 90,254,364 312,644,813 || 9,391,267,043 ||
|| || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || ||
*2011 25th April to 17th July || 2,772,368,307 || 3,597,405,256 || 119,316,077 || 1,167,173,758 || 3,381,828,258 || 144,541,774 || 142,907,830 287,683,354 || 11,613,224,615 ||
*2011 18th July to 9th October || 3,465,785,233 || 2,526,658,614 || 72,998,288 || 959,342,770 || 2,767,445,467 || 141,863,587 || 92,553,940 350,169,404 || 10,376,817,304 ||
| Soccer | Tennis | Golf | Cricket | Horse Racing | Greyhounds | Basketball Other | Totals |
*2010 26th April to 18th July || 4,008,637,103 || 2,749,193,868 || 102,111,159 || 620,336,568 || 3,041,806,933 || 152,414,133 || 137,826,967 304,805,405 || 11,117,132,137 ||
*2010 19th July to 10th October || 3,083,207,724 || 2,347,847,261 || 116,817,151 || 506,215,477 || 2,785,312,346 || 148,967,907 || 90,254,364 312,644,813 || 9,391,267,043 ||
|| || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || ||
*2011 25th April to 17th July || 2,772,368,307 || 3,597,405,256 || 119,316,077 || 1,167,173,758 || 3,381,828,258 || 144,541,774 || 142,907,830 287,683,354 || 11,613,224,615 ||
*2011 18th July to 9th October || 3,465,785,233 || 2,526,658,614 || 72,998,288 || 959,342,770 || 2,767,445,467 || 141,863,587 || 92,553,940 350,169,404 || 10,376,817,304 ||
| sport | Soccer | Tennis | Golf | Cricket | Horse Racing | Greyhounds | Basketball Other |
|| *2010 26th April to 18th July || 4,008,637,103 || 2,749,193,868 || 102,111,159 || 620,336,568 || 3,041,806,933 || 152,414,133 || 137,826,967 304,805,405 || 11,117,132,137
|| *2010 19th July to 10th October || 3,083,207,724 || 2,347,847,261 || 116,817,151 || 506,215,477 || 2,785,312,346 || 148,967,907 || 90,254,364 312,644,813 || 9,391,267,043
|| || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || ||
|| *2011 25th April to 17th July || 2,772,368,307 || 3,597,405,256 || 119,316,077 || 1,167,173,758 || 3,381,828,258 || 144,541,774 || 142,907,830 287,683,354 || 11,613,224,615
|| *2011 18th July to 9th October || 3,465,785,233 || 2,526,658,614 || 72,998,288 || 959,342,770 || 2,767,445,467 || 141,863,587 || 92,553,940 350,169,404 || 10,376,817,304
**** it you could no make a more usless forum it that was your objective....
**** it you could no make a more usless forum it that was your objective....
amzing....
you cant type f u ( k
but you cant post a fu)king table without spending hours on formatting...
U S E L E S S
you cant type f u ( k
but you cant post a fu)king table without spending hours on formatting...
U S E L E S S
so if we exclude football which was distorted by the world cup, then the growth rate in volumes matched has fallen from 24.6% to 9.6%.
| sport | Soccer | Tennis | Golf | Cricket | Horse Racing | Greyhounds | Basketball | Other | Totals |
|| *2010 26th April to 18th July || 4,008,637,103 || 2,749,193,868 || 102,111,159 || 620,336,568 || 3,041,806,933 || 152,414,133 || 137,826,967 || 304,805,405 || 11,117,132,137 ||
|| *2010 19th July to 10th October || 3,083,207,724 || 2,347,847,261 || 116,817,151 || 506,215,477 || 2,785,312,346 || 148,967,907 || 90,254,364 || 312,644,813 || 9,391,267,043 ||
|| || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || ||
|| *2011 25th April to 17th July || 2,772,368,307 || 3,597,405,256 || 119,316,077 || 1,167,173,758 || 3,381,828,258 || 144,541,774 || 142,907,830 || 287,683,354 || 11,613,224,615 ||
|| *2011 18th July to 9th October || 3,465,785,233 || 2,526,658,614 || 72,998,288 || 959,342,770 || 2,767,445,467 || 141,863,587 || 92,553,940 || 350,169,404 || 10,376,817,304 ||
| sport | Soccer | Tennis | Golf | Cricket | Horse Racing | Greyhounds | Basketball | Other |
|| *2010 26th April to 18th July || 4,008,637,103 || 2,749,193,868 || 102,111,159 || 620,336,568 || 3,041,806,933 || 152,414,133 || 137,826,967 || 304,805,405 || 11,117,132,137
|| *2010 19th July to 10th October || 3,083,207,724 || 2,347,847,261 || 116,817,151 || 506,215,477 || 2,785,312,346 || 148,967,907 || 90,254,364 || 312,644,813 || 9,391,267,043
|| || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || ||
|| *2011 25th April to 17th July || 2,772,368,307 || 3,597,405,256 || 119,316,077 || 1,167,173,758 || 3,381,828,258 || 144,541,774 || 142,907,830 || 287,683,354 || 11,613,224,615
|| *2011 18th July to 9th October || 3,465,785,233 || 2,526,658,614 || 72,998,288 || 959,342,770 || 2,767,445,467 || 141,863,587 || 92,553,940 || 350,169,404 || 10,376,817,304
someone help me please before I smash my screen
| sport | Soccer | Tennis | Golf | Cricket | Horse Racing | Greyhounds | Basketball | Other | |
| *2010 26th April to 18th July | 4,008,637,103 | 2,749,193,868 | 102,111,159 | 620,336,568 | 3,041,806,933 | 152,414,133 | 137,826,967 | 304,805,405 | |
| *2010 19th July to 10th October | 3,083,207,724 | 2,347,847,261 | 116,817,151 | 506,215,477 | 2,785,312,346 | 148,967,907 | 90,254,364 | 312,644,813 | |
| *2011 25th April to 17th July | 2,772,368,307 | 3,597,405,256 | 119,316,077 | 1,167,173,758 | 3,381,828,258 | 144,541,774 | 142,907,830 | 287,683,354 | |
| *2011 18th July to 9th October | 3,465,785,233 | 2,526,658,614 | 72,998,288 | 959,342,770 | 2,767,445,467 | 141,863,587 | 92,553,940 | 350,169,404 | 10,376,817,304 |
??
LOL
missing three totals by the look of it....
missing three totals by the look of it....
| sport | Soccer | Tennis | Golf | Cricket | Horse Racing | Greyhounds | Basketball | Other | |
| *2010 26th April to 18th July | 4,008,637,103 | 2,749,193,868 | 102,111,159 | 620,336,568 | 3,041,806,933 | 152,414,133 | 137,826,967 | 304,805,405 | 11,117,132,137 |
| *2010 19th July to 10th October | 3,083,207,724 | 2,347,847,261 | 116,817,151 | 506,215,477 | 2,785,312,346 | 148,967,907 | 90,254,364 | 312,644,813 | 9,391,267,043 |
| *2011 25th April to 17th July | 2,772,368,307 | 3,597,405,256 | 119,316,077 | 1,167,173,758 | 3,381,828,258 | 144,541,774 | 142,907,830 | 287,683,354 | 11,613,224,615 |
| *2011 18th July to 9th October | 3,465,785,233 | 2,526,658,614 | 72,998,288 | 959,342,770 | 2,767,445,467 | 141,863,587 | 92,553,940 | 350,169,404 | 10,376,817,304 |
??
| sport | Footy | Tennis | Golf | Cricket | Horse Racing | Greyhounds | Basketball | Other | Total |
| *2010 26th April to 18th July | 4,008,637,103 | 2,749,193,868 | 102,111,159 | 620,336,568 | 3,041,806,933 | 152,414,133 | 137,826,967 | 304,805,405 | 11,117,132,137 |
| *2010 19th July to 10th October | 3,083,207,724 | 2,347,847,261 | 116,817,151 | 506,215,477 | 2,785,312,346 | 148,967,907 | 90,254,364 | 312,644,813 | 9,391,267,043 |
| *2011 25th April to 17th July | 2,772,368,307 | 3,597,405,256 | 119,316,077 | 1,167,173,758 | 3,381,828,258 | 144,541,774 | 142,907,830 | 287,683,354 | 11,613,224,615 |
| *2011 18th July to 9th October | 3,465,785,233 | 2,526,658,614 | 72,998,288 | 959,342,770 | 2,767,445,467 | 141,863,587 | 92,553,940 | 350,169,404 | 10,376,817,304 |
heres the code for the last one
||sport||Footy||Tennis||Golf||Cricket||Horse Racing||Greyhounds||Basketball||Other||Total||
||*2010 26th April to 18th July||4,008,637,103||2,749,193,868||102,111,159||620,336,568||3,041,806,933|... ||
||*2010 19th July to 10th October||3,083,207,724||2,347,847,261||116,817,151||506,215,477||2,785,312,3... ||
||*2011 25th April to 17th July||2,772,368,307||3,597,405,256||119,316,077||1,167,173,758||3,381,828,25... 11,613,224,615 ||
||*2011 18th July to 9th October||3,465,785,233||2,526,658,614||72,998,288||959,342,770||2,767,445,46... ||
||*2010 26th April to 18th July||4,008,637,103||2,749,193,868||102,111,159||620,336,568||3,041,806,933|... ||
||*2010 19th July to 10th October||3,083,207,724||2,347,847,261||116,817,151||506,215,477||2,785,312,3... ||
||*2011 25th April to 17th July||2,772,368,307||3,597,405,256||119,316,077||1,167,173,758||3,381,828,25... 11,613,224,615 ||
||*2011 18th July to 9th October||3,465,785,233||2,526,658,614||72,998,288||959,342,770||2,767,445,46... ||
| sport | Footy | Tennis | Golf | Cricket | Horse Racing | Greyhounds | Basketball | Other | Total | Total Ex Football |
| *2010 26th April to 18th July | 4,009 | 2,749 | 102 | 620 | 3,042 | 152 | 138 | 305 | 11,117 | 7,108 |
| *2010 19th July to 10th October | 3,083 | 2,348 | 117 | 506 | 2,785 | 149 | 90 | 313 | 9,391 | 6,308 |
| *2011 25th April to 17th July | 2,772 | 3,597 | 119 | 1,167 | 3,382 | 145 | 143 | 288 | 11,613 | 8,841 |
| *2011 18th July to 9th October | 3,466 | 2,527 | 73 | 959 | 2,767 | 142 | 93 | 350 | 10,377 | 6,911 |
| 2010 % difference pre to post | -23% | -15% | 14% | -18% | -8% | -2% | -35% | 3% | -16% | -11% |
| 2011 % difference pre to post | 25% | -30% | -39% | -18% | -18% | -2% | -35% | 22% | -11% | -22% |
| 2011 to 2010 difference | 48% | -15% | -53% | 1% | -10% | 0% | -1% | 19% | 5% | -11% |
Golf by far the biggest loser since PC3. I'm not surprised and it's going to become even worse.
I was trying to same that i 'heart this forum', but it doesn't seem to like a less than followed by a 3... and i don't heart it anymore. Here is what I was trying to post (referring to the table i posted below attempting to interpret Magician's numbers):
I did a few things I think are interesting:
1 - restated them in £ millions (not so interesting)
2 - added total excluding football so we can remove the WC effect
3 - added rows at the bottom.
If assume 2011 is the same as 2010 in terms of the sporting calendar then we would expect to see similar numbers for the "2011 % difference pre to post" to 2010 (even if betfair has grown or shrunk in the meantime) if PC had no impact.
4 - The final rows shows how far assumption 3 is from the truth and would be my estimate of the impact of PC on matched volumes
So it suggests -11% impact to me... I find these numbers pretty convincing
I did a few things I think are interesting:
1 - restated them in £ millions (not so interesting)
2 - added total excluding football so we can remove the WC effect
3 - added rows at the bottom.
If assume 2011 is the same as 2010 in terms of the sporting calendar then we would expect to see similar numbers for the "2011 % difference pre to post" to 2010 (even if betfair has grown or shrunk in the meantime) if PC had no impact.
4 - The final rows shows how far assumption 3 is from the truth and would be my estimate of the impact of PC on matched volumes
So it suggests -11% impact to me... I find these numbers pretty convincing
Thanks Magician for figures (and others for formatting).
So Magician says figures look good, gettingbetter2 says there has been a slow down in growth, and Martinch says impact of latest PC is negative.
So the conclusion is...................
So Magician says figures look good, gettingbetter2 says there has been a slow down in growth, and Martinch says impact of latest PC is negative.
So the conclusion is...................
Hazel
I forgot the impact of Soccer world cup...
So my "good" needs to be tempered now.... but I think others "bad" needs to be upgraded... because Soccer was/is rapidly growing pre-PC, and I suspect if you removed only Wcup games, and then compared like for like Soccer would be up...
As such perhaps not fair to exclude it... but equally not fair to include it.
I can strip out the world cup games.... but not sure I can be really bothered, and they would have predated the Turnover on other games...
I forgot the impact of Soccer world cup...
So my "good" needs to be tempered now.... but I think others "bad" needs to be upgraded... because Soccer was/is rapidly growing pre-PC, and I suspect if you removed only Wcup games, and then compared like for like Soccer would be up...
As such perhaps not fair to exclude it... but equally not fair to include it.
I can strip out the world cup games.... but not sure I can be really bothered, and they would have predated the Turnover on other games...
I can't read the right side of posts (the r/h side of forum goes blank) but there has been more than 100% increase in the number of football matches going in play this year, many of which have very little matched though.
Rugby World Cup would have a huge influence on the 'Other' figures.
Eddie there is a big difference on the golf but no ryder cup and no tiger in the fed ex probably explains some of it.
cheers martinch.
rate of increase down 11% post PC3 without football and the WC then.
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taking the relevant periods post 18th of July for 2010 and 2011 which therefore doesnt include the World Cup football did 3% better than other markets combined in 2011 compared to 2010.
Given that I expect the football season started earlier this year in prep for Euro 2012 and therefore there has been a bit more top class football in the 2011 period that 3% would probably be explained away and it is possible to conclude that the 11% broadly encompasses all turnover including football.
rate of increase down 11% post PC3 without football and the WC then.
............................
taking the relevant periods post 18th of July for 2010 and 2011 which therefore doesnt include the World Cup football did 3% better than other markets combined in 2011 compared to 2010.
Given that I expect the football season started earlier this year in prep for Euro 2012 and therefore there has been a bit more top class football in the 2011 period that 3% would probably be explained away and it is possible to conclude that the 11% broadly encompasses all turnover including football.
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