General Betting
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I'm going to add the figures for the larger markets of some of the main UK televised football games this season, and compare them with those from last season. Of course, this is a rather impressionistic analysis, but the longer it continues, the more validity it will have.
Feel free to post figures from any other games/sports, so we can work out whether liquidity really is dropping.
Stoke v Chelsea Sun 14/08/11 versus Liverpool v Arsenal Sun 15/08/10
Match odds £7.09m £11.6m
Correct score £1.0m £1.08m
Over/under 1.5 £553k £921k
Over/under 2.5 £960k £2.25m
Over/under 3.5 £152k £352k
Over/under 4.5 £137k £256k
Feel free to post figures from any other games/sports, so we can work out whether liquidity really is dropping.
Stoke v Chelsea Sun 14/08/11 versus Liverpool v Arsenal Sun 15/08/10
Match odds £7.09m £11.6m
Correct score £1.0m £1.08m
Over/under 1.5 £553k £921k
Over/under 2.5 £960k £2.25m
Over/under 3.5 £152k £352k
Over/under 4.5 £137k £256k
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Replies: 62
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I suppose tbf the games aren't comparable, because last year's was two marquee teams against each other, but still.
will be interesting to see how this unfolds. |
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VEP,
Yes, agreed. I thought of comparing with the Stoke v Chelsea fixture from last season, but it was a 3pm (ie. not televised in the UK) game, and so not comparable. |
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agree with viva - keep these comparisons going if you can though please , after 4 weeks or so you should have your answers
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Actually, West Brom v Man U liquidity great so far.
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You are also comparing a 1:30pm KO with a 4:00pm one
And the match today turned out to be goalless (2010 match finished 1-1), though I've never looked into whether goals affect amounts traded On the one hand, more goals mean some markets will reach settlement midway through a match (but there's always another total goals line to bet on) on the other hand, it might be that there's a bunfight in the market after a goal which slightly spikes the amount matched? Only speculating, still interesting to see your analysis. You just need to get a big enough sample of games and aggregate the figures for each batch. Also note whether bf are running any promos to incentivise people to bet more, such as the recent Super Summer one or whatever it was called |
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and...bigger the fav odds is , the more bias betfair matching is
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Eldrick,
Yes, I thought about the possible effect of goals on liquidity. I imagine that there is some positive correlation between goals and total betting volumes. More goals equals more overall interest on the part of the punters, and more panicky betting. As you imply, though, this raised liquidity may be spread across a wider range of markets. |
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I imagine that there is some positive correlation between goals and total betting volumes. More goals equals more overall interest on the part of the punters, and more panicky betting. As you imply, though, this raised liquidity may be spread across a wider range of markets.
_________________________ 100% correct |
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Contrarian
over time you will get a picture ...but we can all feel betfair is down a lot |
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West Brom v Man Utd Sun 14/08/11 4pm
Match Odds £12.1m Correct score £890k Over/under 1.5 £?? Over/under 2.5 £2m+ (??) Over/under 3.5 £836k Over/under 4.5 £467k Figures slightly incomplete, but the overall picture is clear. Liquidity was very high on this game, compared to last year. |
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did you notice the discrepancy in sending off betting between 1.30 and 4pm?
stoke game had 26K traded pre-ko, man u was £355 when I looked a bit before. the magic of halsey... |
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Was it Real v Barca in the Spanish supercup last season, if so this represents a decent standardised comparison. Same teams, same kick off time, on tv both occasions (although I can't remember last year- would need to check it was televised).
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Nothing to do with the fact people have less disposable cash or half the City are on redundancy watch?
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Contrarian
I did an extensive piece of work - that looked at EVERY matched exchange bet since Q1 Financial Year 2007. Soccer is cyclical, and growing, at a global level.... within that it is possible that the premiership is declining ( I can look for you if really interested) Soccer Q1 FY08 1,194,490,726 Q2 FY08 2,159,338,961 Q3 FY08 2,522,408,509 Q4 FY08 2,857,278,206 Q1 FY09 1,969,808,150 Q2 FY09 2,758,569,286 Q3 FY09 3,394,126,759 Q4 FY09 3,560,536,531 Q1 FY10 1,999,447,553 Q2 FY10 3,653,035,457 Q3 FY10 3,858,565,173 Q4 FY10 4,304,506,076 Q1 FY11 4,134,617,606 Q2 FY11 3,988,077,789 Q3 FY11 5,140,068,533 Q4 FY11 4,576,486,100 Q1 FY12 *** 3,389,543,476 Q1 FY12+++ 3,497,125,593 |
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Cheers Magician.
Are the quarters you refer to quarters of the financial year (starting in April)? |
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Ignore that - I've just seen that you already mentioned the financial year!
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match attendance ftr(+/-) match odds(main market) ftr(+/-)
Stoke v Chelsea Sun 14/08/11 27,000 plus 0.61 £7.09m 0.61 Liverpool v Arsenal Sun 15/08/10 44,000 plus 1.62 £11.6m 1.64 Above you will note that when comparing attendances with the main indicator of liquidity at football the match odds there is a striking coherence in the factors, this can only prove that liquidity is the same to a less than 1%. Of course I understand that most persons using this forum do not look at information scientifically so therefor there is plenty of room for ambiguity! |
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Those earlier years are not relevant in terms of determining how the supertax PC is going to adversely hit the current marketplace though, which I thought was the reason this thread was created, forgive me if i am wrong.
What is key is the figures from when the high rate beccame public knowledge and the following 6-12 months down the line, isnt it? |
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Funky Monkey....
I will update my figures shortly.... and then you can start to compare before and after PC for like for like periods. |
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Ok that will be interesting, thank you.
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Chase me in say 4 weeks, when we have 4 weeks of data for the premiership....
and besides possible imbalances for blockbuster games, we will have a like for like period of 40 games |
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I don't study football match markets but I know it will stand up to the same theoretical
observations as any other sporting events and I cant imagine footie fans closing there betfair accounts at the certain knowledge of making 250,000 out of the betfair company recently, isn't that a 6000/1 shot for the average unit customer?[;)] |
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Cheers Magician, that will be great.
bf_fananatic, What does this even mean? Above you will note that when comparing attendances with the main indicator of liquidity at football the match odds there is a striking coherence in the factors, this can only prove that liquidity is the same to a less than 1%. |
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bf_fananatic,
The point is that the Super PC may have discouraged some of the larger liquidity providers. Of course it makes precious little difference to the recreational punters. |
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If you compare the attendances which is a very good indicator as to the popularity of the match
and that a high percentage of supporters are betting on these matches, then divide one with the other and vice versa, then do the same with the match odds liquidity figures you will see that the factors involved are almost identical, the only difference is less than 1%, punch the attendance figures and liquidity figures in to a calculator dividing each field by the opposing match item and you will see that my figures are pretty accurate! |
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I amazed me at its accuracy, what are the odds of it being a co-incidence!
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It also co-insides with the understanding that mobile betting apps are the fastest growing sector of
exchange betting as clearly there is a strong relationship between persons at match and the liquidity! Of course I completely agree with most of you that it would be very interesting to see what the effect of pc2 is having on liquidity and I totally agree that members should try to discover what the effect is, but its too early in the football season to make a judgment, perhaps ten week ends time you will have a better set of figures to evaluate, it should be very revealing! |
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bf_fananatic 14 Aug 11 20:51 Joined: 17 Jul 11 | Topic/replies: 803 | Blogger: bf_fananatic's blog I amazed me at its accuracy, what are the odds of it being a co-incidence! now do it for every game in the last 4 years and prove if it is or not |
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please NOTE
my two estimates for Q1 FY12, where based on the first 52 days of data from Q1 FY12 with Q1 FY12 - I can publish the actual results, soon, and betfairs comission income for the same period. |
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And for the record, its a crying shame that the worshipers of statistics, mathematics, programming skills, form, staking systems etc are the ones that have been penalized by pc1 and pc2 but we all have
to raise our game and not shrink to the challenge fellow members! |
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bf_f
those worshipers should embrace PC2, because in the long run (which they presumably will be around to profit from) the PC2 will hurt their "less evolved" competitors more than it will hurt them... so far from a crying shame... they should view it as a blessing... but they might not do so for 5 years.... |
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lets hope the pc2 doesn't ruin a good product core product and we all can make some loot!
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Would we all be still looking at pc2 if Andy Black was still on-board, the true father of the betfair model as was
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If a company rackets up charges to tap the lucky few then the lucky few should look at all the sporting spectrum of products and if widening there field of speculations and volumes then
its check-mate mr exchange mechanic, if you know where i am coming from[;)] |
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BFF
I believe we would.... an intelligent man that understands the exchange.... he would certainly 1) realize some customer where bad for Betfair and the exchange 2) try and address it options (mine not his) a) banning them b) 'taxing' them c) changing the exchange to stop them winning so fast. out of a, b, c, i assume Betfair found "b" most palatable, and probably did not think or understand potential options for "c" |
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Its not the same without fafh joining in the threads, hes missed
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or create 2 different markets , one exempt from persons getting pc2 or even pc1 with limited liquidity
and then the rest of the liquidity (90%) for the big guns too shoot at with the charges in place The fact is by treating all betfair customers as equal they have placed a negative cloud over the majority of users, soem of which should be able to enjoy an easier gaming enviroment espially new customers! There putting donkeys with little legs and big ears in with class horses and telling them all they will get a lot less should they win the race? throwing babes in with sharks! no wonder there is so much confusion in the race or pool! |
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All of this could have been avoided if they had heeded warnings very early on about the way their policies were disincentivising users from using the site. More users would have a stake in using the site, rather than how it is now, a bunch of prices set by automated superusers which may or may not be taken by the casual punters.
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The fact is betfair is so big it could run a baby exchange inside it with better new customers comms rates and perks that would be the envy of other exchanges, but instead betfair cant visualize a better way so just wack up perceived charges for all and nothing given to newbies or the less fortunate!
Even the stock market has more than one division! |