Is liquidity down on last year? A catalogue of statistics

I suppose tbf the games aren't comparable, because last year's was two marquee teams against each other, but still.

will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

VEP,

Yes, agreed. I thought of comparing with the Stoke v Chelsea fixture from last season, but it was a 3pm (ie. not televised in the UK) game, and so not comparable.

agree with viva -  keep these comparisons going if you can though please , after 4 weeks or so you should have your answers

Actually, West Brom v Man U liquidity great so far.

You are also comparing a 1:30pm KO with a 4:00pm one

And the match today turned out to be goalless (2010 match finished 1-1), though I've never looked into whether goals affect amounts traded

On the one hand, more goals mean some markets will reach settlement midway through a match (but there's always another total goals line to bet on) on the other hand, it might be that there's a bunfight in the market after a goal which slightly spikes the amount matched?

Only speculating, still interesting to see your analysis.

You just need to get a big enough sample of games and aggregate the figures for each batch. Also note whether bf are running any promos to incentivise people to bet more, such as the recent Super Summer one or whatever it was called

and...bigger the fav odds is , the more bias betfair matching is

Eldrick,

Yes, I thought about the possible effect of goals on liquidity. I imagine that there is some positive correlation between goals and total betting volumes. More goals equals more overall interest on the part of the punters, and more panicky betting. As you imply, though, this raised liquidity may be spread across a wider range of markets.

I imagine that there is some positive correlation between goals and total betting volumes. More goals equals more overall interest on the part of the punters, and more panicky betting. As you imply, though, this raised liquidity may be spread across a wider range of markets.
_________________________

100% correct

Contrarian

over time you will get a picture ...but we can all feel betfair is down a lot

West Brom v Man Utd Sun 14/08/11 4pm
Match Odds        £12.1m
Correct score     £890k
Over/under 1.5    £??
Over/under 2.5    £2m+ (??)
Over/under 3.5    £836k
Over/under 4.5    £467k

Figures slightly incomplete, but the overall picture is clear. Liquidity was very high on this game, compared to last year.

did you notice the discrepancy in sending off betting between 1.30 and 4pm?

stoke game had 26K traded pre-ko, man u was £355 when I looked a bit before.

the magic of halsey...

Was it Real v Barca in the Spanish supercup last season, if so this represents a decent standardised comparison. Same teams, same kick off time, on tv both occasions (although I can't remember last year- would need to check it was televised).

Nothing to do with the fact people have less disposable cash or half the City are on redundancy watch?

Contrarian

I did an extensive piece of work - that looked at EVERY matched exchange bet since Q1 Financial Year 2007.

Soccer is cyclical, and growing, at a global level.... within that it is possible that the premiership is declining ( I can look for you if really interested)


    Soccer
Q1 FY08     1,194,490,726
Q2 FY08     2,159,338,961
Q3 FY08     2,522,408,509
Q4 FY08     2,857,278,206
Q1 FY09     1,969,808,150
Q2 FY09     2,758,569,286
Q3 FY09     3,394,126,759
Q4 FY09     3,560,536,531
Q1 FY10     1,999,447,553
Q2 FY10     3,653,035,457
Q3 FY10     3,858,565,173
Q4 FY10     4,304,506,076
Q1 FY11     4,134,617,606
Q2 FY11     3,988,077,789
Q3 FY11     5,140,068,533
Q4 FY11     4,576,486,100
Q1 FY12 ***     3,389,543,476
Q1 FY12+++     3,497,125,593

Cheers Magician.

Are the quarters you refer to quarters of the financial year (starting in April)?

Ignore that - I've just seen that you already mentioned the financial year!

     match                            attendance   ftr(+/-)   match odds(main market) ftr(+/-)

  Stoke v Chelsea Sun 14/08/11         27,000 plus    0.61     £7.09m                       0.61
Liverpool v Arsenal Sun 15/08/10      44,000 plus    1.62     £11.6m                       1.64

Above you will note that when comparing attendances with the main indicator of liquidity at football
the match odds there is a striking coherence in the factors, this can only prove that liquidity is the same to a less than 1%.

Of course I understand that most persons using this forum do not look at information scientifically
so therefor there is plenty of room for ambiguity!

Those earlier years are not relevant in terms of determining how the supertax PC is going to adversely hit the current marketplace though, which I thought was the reason this thread was created, forgive me if i am wrong.

What is key is the figures from when the high rate beccame public knowledge and the following 6-12 months down the line, isnt it?

Funky Monkey....

I will update my figures shortly.... and then you can start to compare before and after PC for like for like periods.

Ok that will be interesting, thank you.

Chase me in say 4 weeks, when we have 4 weeks of data for the premiership....

and besides possible imbalances for blockbuster games, we will have a like for like period of 40 games

I don't study football match markets but I know it will stand up to the same theoretical
observations as any other sporting events and I cant imagine footie fans closing there betfair accounts
at the certain knowledge of making 250,000 out of the betfair company recently, isn't that a 6000/1 shot for the average unit customer?[;)]

Cheers Magician, that will be great.

bf_fananatic,

What does this even mean?

Above you will note that when comparing attendances with the main indicator of liquidity at football
the match odds there is a striking coherence in the factors, this can only prove that liquidity is the same to a less than 1%.

bf_fananatic,

The point is that the Super PC may have discouraged some of the larger liquidity providers. Of course it makes precious little difference to the recreational punters.

If you compare the attendances which is a very good indicator as to the popularity of the match
and that a high percentage of supporters are betting on these matches, then divide one with the other and vice versa, then do the same with the match odds liquidity figures you will see that the factors involved are almost identical, the only difference is less than 1%, punch the attendance figures
and liquidity figures in to  a calculator dividing each field by the opposing match item and you will see that my figures are pretty accurate!

I amazed me at its accuracy, what are the odds of it being a co-incidence!

It also co-insides with the understanding that mobile betting apps are the fastest growing sector of
exchange betting as clearly there is a strong relationship between persons at match and the liquidity!

Of course I completely agree with most of you that it would be very interesting to see what the effect of pc2 is having on liquidity and I totally agree that members should try to discover what the effect is, but its too early in the football season to make a judgment, perhaps ten week ends time you will have a better set of figures to evaluate, it should be very revealing!

bf_fananatic
14 Aug 11 20:51 Joined: 17 Jul 11 | Topic/replies: 803 | Blogger: bf_fananatic's blog
I amazed me at its accuracy, what are the odds of it being a co-incidence!



now do it for every game in the last 4 years and prove if it is or not

please NOTE

my two estimates for Q1 FY12, where based on the first 52 days of data from Q1 FY12


with Q1 FY12 - I can publish the actual results, soon, and betfairs comission income for the same period.

And for the record, its a crying shame that the worshipers of statistics, mathematics, programming skills, form, staking systems etc are the ones that have been penalized by pc1 and pc2 but we all have
to raise our game and not shrink to the challenge fellow members!

bf_f

those worshipers should embrace PC2, because in the long run (which they presumably will be around to profit from) the PC2 will hurt their "less evolved" competitors more than it will hurt them...

so far from a crying shame... they should view it as a blessing... but they might not do so for 5 years....

lets hope the pc2 doesn't ruin a good product core product and we all can make some loot!

Would we all be still looking at pc2 if Andy Black was still on-board, the true father of the betfair model as was

If a company rackets up charges to tap the lucky few then the lucky few should look at all the sporting spectrum of products and if widening there field of speculations and volumes then
its check-mate mr exchange mechanic, if you know where i am coming from[;)]

BFF

I believe we would.... an intelligent man that understands the exchange.... he would certainly

1) realize some customer where bad for Betfair and the exchange
2) try and address it

options (mine not his)

a) banning them
b) 'taxing' them
c) changing the exchange to stop them winning so fast.

out of a, b, c, i assume Betfair found "b" most palatable, and probably did not think or understand potential options for "c"

Its not the same without fafh joining in the threads, hes missed

or create 2 different markets , one exempt from persons getting pc2 or even pc1 with limited liquidity
and then the rest of the liquidity (90%) for the big guns too shoot at with the charges in place
The fact is by treating all betfair customers as equal they have placed a negative cloud over the majority of users, soem of which should be able to enjoy an easier gaming enviroment espially new customers!

There putting donkeys with little legs and big ears in with class horses and telling them all
they will get a lot less should they win the race? throwing babes in with sharks! no wonder there
is so much confusion in the race or pool!

All of this could have been avoided if they had heeded warnings very early on about the way their policies were disincentivising users from using the site. More users would have a stake in using the site, rather than how it is now, a bunch of prices set by automated superusers which may or may not be taken by the casual punters.

The fact is betfair is so big it could run a baby exchange inside it with better new customers comms rates and perks that would be the envy of other exchanges, but instead betfair cant visualize a better way so just wack up perceived charges for all and nothing given to newbies or the less fortunate!

Even the stock market has more than one division!

To many eggheads plugging routers in at betfair and no body plugging new ideas into the system,
you cant expect many more customers to strain the system if you cant come up with refreshing ideas

Now they have shareholders to appease the site will go backwards from a punter's perspective rather than forwards. This summer it was the top 500, what next?

True but the share holders want a better betfair just as much as we do so there will be some market force at work that will whip the management back into "betfair feel good factor over drive" and
its core benefactors and all customers must have a better deal or its curtains

Look at apple, so many years ago you would of thrown your shares in the bin, now there top dog[;)]

They want a more profitable Betfair, that doesn't necessarily mean a better Betfair. The cake will keep getting sliced I suspect.

I sense a change is coming

I think we all do...

Well if the cake goes stale then someone else will bake a better fresher cake[;)]

To me it is pretty obvious that whilst Betfair liquidity may have declined a bit since this new charge, the other exchange has increased a lot more than any decline here, so if one adds the two together there is more going on.

48 replies, 17 from bf_fananatic

with out  bf_fananatic, betfair forum would be dead

Magician, do you have access to data on commission paid to Betfair per quarter (segmented by sport)?

It would be interesting to see how this correlates with bet volume.

In my own case my turnover is growing extremely rapidly, my profits (and commission generated) less so.

For instance comparing 2008 to 2010:

Bet Volume x88.0
Net Profit x5.4
Commission x11.4

Betfair revenue did not grow in-line with exchange ecosystem activity
–Exchange activity grew c. 20%
–Exchange revenue grew 8%

from.
http://corporate.betfair.com/~/media/Files/B/Betfair/pdf/fy11_analyst_presentation.pdf?

Sports:improving monetisation.

those worshipers should embrace PC2, because in the long run (which they presumably will be around to profit from) the PC2 will hurt their "less evolved" competitors more than it will hurt them...

so far from a crying shame... they should view it as a blessing... but they might not do so for 5 years....

magician, your thinking would be fine if there was no fallout from pc2 beyond those affected. I don't think that's the case though. We already agree that betfair facilitating middlemen and cheats erodes the advantages betfair has over bookmakers for leisure punters and pc2 doesn't change that. The threat of pc1 never mind pc2 also hangs over the heads of many existing / prospective users because of word of mouth bad publicity and lies about the charges. If the large bookmakers ever saw betfair as a threat (incredible that they don't) and asked you to generate anti-exchange advertising on their behalf imagine what you'd be able to come up with between the cheating and the commission. In pc2 betfair have also practically invited government taxation of exchange users. They've built their very own version of the sword of Damocles.

Sad thing is, it could all be avoided by getting shot of the middlemen and cheats which would create more churning, result in fewer lost customers and make it easier to get new ones. This would more than make up for the loss of pc's. The uniform of betfair's decision makers should include a rotating bow tie and a squirting flower imo.

Good post fne , I cant think that betfairs reason for the pc2 is because of middlemen and cheats, its probably the fact that revenues are not growing as fast as customer activity as the whole system is too beneficial to the advantaged winner. Bertfair could of been more careful in there application of a charging system as its now perceived to affect everyone that may make a good profit here and so has a very negative overtone.

A better approach would be the one you see in casinos and arcades, you have 10c,20c,50c,$1 etc machines to cater for different cash levels of players, in poker you have different stake levels.

With betfair newbies,regulars,bookmakers,traders,speculators are all thrown in together in the same market but if the pros had to play each other and the bookmakers it would be a different market and outcome , a smaller market with no premium charges for the smaller type of player would of been much better, of course you would have limitations on volumes and liquidity but it would be more acceptable all round , pros have the option of playing in either market but would still make a premium return after pc1 and pc2 compared to any other betting platform around or betting in the smaller betfair market.

If you give people a choice then its perceived fairer than treating all customers with different winning abilities and cash flow all the same when in fact they are entirely differnt.

bf_fananatic
Date Joined: 17 Jul 11
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seriously, people - if we all block this tool maybe he'll get the message and stop saturation bombing every interesting thread with his semi-literate drivel. surely by now no one can doubt that he has nothing of value to contribute.

magician - fascinating work, thanks for posting those figures.

seriously, people - if we all block this tool maybe he'll get the message and stop saturation bombing every interesting thread with his semi-literate drivel. surely by now no one can doubt that he has nothing of value to contribute.

Absolutely, it worked with the other fecker.

I currently have 2 in my blocked list and a spare slot if he ever comes back. (which he will) [;)]

Oh look who it is, the same 2 guys that recommend blocking me every time I make a post, both with names
linked to self-riotous characters, and both never liked FAFH oh which he wasn't someone who didn't have some good views on matters, I will not block anybody as I don't object to anyones opinion and if I am at some point out of order I will refrain from posting with a little reminder, anyway I prefer to read other members posts now and threads as there quite good and don't have much time myself.

viva el presidente!
15 Aug 11 12:53
Joined:  10 Jun 06 | Topic/replies: 9,037 |

9,037 posts, my god mr presidente your a hypocrite of the highest order, go block yourself and lie down

(Hands over ears)

La La La La La !!!

Man City v Swansea liquidity great so far. I'll post the final figures once the match is over.

ttt

Does liquidity = matched bets?

Am thinking of making a new exchange its going to be called the golden pound, its borrowed from
the pond shop idea, players will spend fortunes trying to win a golden pound prize, once a year, to ensure the prize doesn't get any bigger I will introduce pc1,pc2....pc97, I reckon I need about 3 million customers and say a billion turnover to make it work, anybody in