General Betting
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I've spend years trying to analyse teams, tables, etc. to come up with reliable outcomes in football-matches.
But it's not easy.
But at some point it occure to me:
What if I try to follow the cashflow in betting?
In betting it's all about the money and no one want to lose. But there will always be those who lose there money in a bet no matter what.
But my guess is that if you follow the money on each outcome in a match you'll get an idea of about the moneys "oppinion" on the outcome.
The favourite in a match might have according to the odds about 60 pct chance of winning. But the money that have been put on this outcome is about 90 pct of the total amount of the money in this match.
My point is that it might be a better idea to follow the cashflow rather than trying to figure out the teams chances using tables, etc.
But no matter what you should always know a thing or two about the leagues and teams that you want to bet on. A little insight has never hurt anyone..
Am I wront about this way of thinking?
But it's not easy.
But at some point it occure to me:
What if I try to follow the cashflow in betting?
In betting it's all about the money and no one want to lose. But there will always be those who lose there money in a bet no matter what.
But my guess is that if you follow the money on each outcome in a match you'll get an idea of about the moneys "oppinion" on the outcome.
The favourite in a match might have according to the odds about 60 pct chance of winning. But the money that have been put on this outcome is about 90 pct of the total amount of the money in this match.
My point is that it might be a better idea to follow the cashflow rather than trying to figure out the teams chances using tables, etc.
But no matter what you should always know a thing or two about the leagues and teams that you want to bet on. A little insight has never hurt anyone..
Am I wront about this way of thinking?
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Am I wront about this way of thinking?
A few years ago it worked okay but other than in some specific markets now (or unless you've identified patterns with a computer - naked eye not good enough) then things have advanced too far for it to be of much use.
There's no reason the money should be smarter than you are, and if it is, then you're too late anyway.
A few years ago it worked okay but other than in some specific markets now (or unless you've identified patterns with a computer - naked eye not good enough) then things have advanced too far for it to be of much use.
There's no reason the money should be smarter than you are, and if it is, then you're too late anyway.
Yes you are wrong. The favourite will always have a disproportionate % of money matched in relation to it's price.Most people just back favourites.
Prices in football come in a lot for no good reason, reacting to team news that has been available (or predictable) all day, so factored into the price before the money comes. Those sort of gambles come from masses of recreational punters who find out 30 minutes before kick off that Rooney is not playing when the market makers knew this all along.
The worst thing though in following money is that if you wait for the money to move the price significantly you then take a worse price than most other backers.
Prices in football come in a lot for no good reason, reacting to team news that has been available (or predictable) all day, so factored into the price before the money comes. Those sort of gambles come from masses of recreational punters who find out 30 minutes before kick off that Rooney is not playing when the market makers knew this all along.
The worst thing though in following money is that if you wait for the money to move the price significantly you then take a worse price than most other backers.
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