General Betting
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09 Aug 11
02:23
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12 Mar 07
anybody else who will not automatically jump down my throat for asking.
I know you are a football bettor largely ( correct?) and I am having trouble convincing myself to bet on any and all cup related games anywhere at any level.
Any and all system analyses I have done personally seem to indicate great performance variances ( in a negative sense ) if cup games are included in the data bases.
It seems as if compiling odds and assessing good value on cup games seems to get distorted by factors such as different team tactics for knock out situations, problems in teams from different divisions, different countries playing each other.
Do you notice the same ?
It has got to the point that I essentially do not place any wagers on any cup games, even the top level European league type/cup competitions.
I know you are a football bettor largely ( correct?) and I am having trouble convincing myself to bet on any and all cup related games anywhere at any level.
Any and all system analyses I have done personally seem to indicate great performance variances ( in a negative sense ) if cup games are included in the data bases.
It seems as if compiling odds and assessing good value on cup games seems to get distorted by factors such as different team tactics for knock out situations, problems in teams from different divisions, different countries playing each other.
Do you notice the same ?
It has got to the point that I essentially do not place any wagers on any cup games, even the top level European league type/cup competitions.
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Are you serious mate? It's been like that for years, but you know what to do, just always back the outsider of the ties ...
BUT, Champions League is "CUP" games, are you saying you also avoid that too? In Scotland and germany, cup games are treated as serious as league games, so is it just English League teams you are talking about? What about league matches at the end of the season, they are even worse than some "cup" games where they don't give a **** if they win lose or draw .... |
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I'm not talking about games where teams are not trying, but games that don't seemingly conform to conventional valuation approaches because they are essentially one offs and often involve teams very different in ability and professionalism and culture. In those games it seems to be more of a case of really extraordinary, unpredictable things happening more often than any norm ( or norm I can measure against).
I am really just reporting my specific observations on this, as related to my particular betting strategies/preferences, and was only wondering if others can and do bet just as successfully on one off cup games as on other run of the mill league games ?. I can't at the moment at least. Not looking for any trade secrets, just a few rejoinders that maybe I should start to look a bit harder at these things than I'm apparently doing, and perhaps specifically why I should do so. |
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Btw I take your point, and agree with, messy unfocussed end of season games also being unbettable on in many cases.
Not leaving behind too much on the table maybe it seems ? |
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Frog I did notice that in my early betting days when I was betting mainly on overs/unders, I actually built my initial bank up backing overs on league games and unders on cup games, but looking back I was probably successful because even then I always strived to get top prices.
I'm not a match outcome predictor though, so can't comment on that. I quite like the end of season Italian matches though, some crazy prices to be had there, like 0-0 trading between 3.5 and 12.0 even before a ball is kicked, haha. |
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In cup matches, games are played because of a knockout ethos in a totally different mindset
and teams getting through each level reflect less of there divisional league table abilities and more of the ability to to win which will distort there perceived chance against there real chance. Confidence is the greatest factor in human sports and in any human activity, when a team perceives themselves to be inferior then they usually produce a defensive role that eventually gets cracked, But if truly believing they will win will do anything to get a goal and there progress through successive heats proves that believing in ones abilities and success are really the best tactics of any team. One only needs to look at how confidence can cause stock markets to climb and crumble, nations to fall and rise in power to see how important this human winning emotion really is |
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I'm not a match outcome predictor though,
Profitably predicting the result of sporting events is not possible in the long run IMO. |
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Yes Frog, it is more difficult to accurately assess the strength/motivation of teams in Cup matches, due to the reasons you give.
League Cup & FA Cup are best left alone altogether. Europa League is tricky. English and particulary Italian teams do not generally care about this competition at all . Spanish Teams do though. Champion's League is different as it is more important than the Leagues themselves, though hard to judge in the last couple of Group matches. End of Season League games are great though .Just back the teams with 'nothing to play for' that are up to twice the odds they should be. No evidence whatever that the market correctly factors in the extra incentive of those who 'need to win', it is a massively overated factor year after year. |
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Tks for your post tober.
Comforting to know that I'm seemingly not totally out of sync with others re cup games of any sort. |
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I think you're far more likely to find big value in cup games, friendlies and exhibitions in sport in general than any "regular" fixtures.
Taylor/Davis the reconstruction and Nadal/Federer exhibition 2 both spring to mind. (The first is self-explanatory. The second was a charity exhibition in Spain the day after a charity exhibition in Switzerland won by Federer. The players drove to the venues together. Nadal was a gigantic 1.26 and drifted to something like 1.5 in running. Taylor was odds against at one point in the reconstruction  ) |