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nairda
05 Aug 11 13:20
Joined:
Date Joined: 05 Jan 07
| Topic/replies: 27,271 | Blogger: nairda's blog
The full extent of Betfair's fall from grace was epitomised when Numis Securities' Ivor Jones proposed that the company should merge with online bookmaker Sportingbet. The deal, would, he said, give Betfair "the first-class fixed-odds bookmaking product which it needs to round out its product depth and avoid a lengthy, expensive and risky process of building it internally". Purists balked at the notion, some even suggesting that it was a joke: it wasn't. Betfair's
http://www.bettingmarket.com/


beleagured CEO David Yu confirmed that there were indeed holes in the pure betting exchange model, and that it was the company's intention to incrementally develop the fixed odds side of its business. It has been a bad year for Betfair, the once high flying betting exchange. The biggest disaster by far, has been the dismal performance of the company's shares since they started conditional trading in London on Friday 22 October 2010. During the course of that day, shares in Betfair recorded an intra-day high of £16.09, before closing back at £15.50. This morning shares in the company were trading at a new low of 595p; a new low (and this despite the company's ongoing share buyback programme. The year has seen Betfair excluded from a number of European markets, such as France, Spain Greece, and also encounter some problems with its licence in the Italian betting market. A succession of the company's high profile television ads were banned by the ASA; its online casino was blacklisted by the leading industry website Casinomeister, where it still lingers in the "Rogue Section"; its poker arm was forced to migrate to another company's network; and the Observer recently reported that the company had experienced a large exodus of key staff. At the exchange level the company's horse racing product which once had the bookmakers running scared, is now devoid of liquidity in the mornings, and more often than not, it seems to take its lead from the on-course betting market. Negative vibes continue to surround the company's fledgling LMAX trading platform. There are many reasons as to why Betfair has taken on the mantle of a rudderless ship. For many punters, its betting exchange remains too complicated. Then there is the notion that the exchange is a shark infested pit; with small punters likely to be eaten up by professionals, who may perhaps be trading on the back of insider information. Mark Davies exodus from the company was a serious mistake, as he was the only person capable of projecting the bold revolutionary spirit that epotomised Betfair in its early days. Davies took the war to the bookmakers and was quick to highlight issues such as the integrity of the exchange product, whenever an owner, jockey or trader was involved in a case of insider dealing on the exchange. Davies is gone, and in his wake we find a muted silence. There are many who believe that under the stewardship of David Yu, the company has become too fixated with technology and with the holy grail of cracking the US market. Allegations also abound that the senior management at the company are both arrogant and blinkered, and do not know the slightest thing about the market that their company operates in. Betfair failed because it became too big for its own boots. It took its eye of the ball, and sought success in far flung corners, whilst taking its eye of the holy grail, that is the betting exchange.

http://www.bettingmarket.com/
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Report bf_fananatic August 5, 2011 1:28 PM BST
At the time you post today the footsie 100 is down nearly 2%. That means the top 100 listed companies are down 2% on there share price today due to worries over sovereign debt, bet.l (betfair) has gained 2% today!

(although this could change by market close time).

Seedy write ups in the press aren't always "fair" and only trade gloom and doom and your claim of failure of betfair is probably the best fairy story of the day. Cool
Report Rocket to the FACE August 5, 2011 1:29 PM BST
What about all the other points brought up in the admittedly biased article?
Report bf_fananatic August 5, 2011 1:34 PM BST
What, the bit about cracking the American market that is controlled through congress to be pro-casino and anti-online betting against the wishes of American gamblers.

or the statement that reckons the expected fall in a newly listed company is a direct disaster to a company with impecable 10 year profits.

Got any write ups on will hill s bookmakers they make massive losses of 100s of millions each year[;)]
Report nairda August 5, 2011 1:35 PM BST
here are many who believe that under the stewardship of David Yu, the company has become too fixated with technology

only thing you ever hear from betfair over the last 5 years, is about Technlogy

Allegations also abound that the senior management at the company are both arrogant and blinkered, and do not know the slightest thing about the market that their company operates in

LaughLaugh
Report bf_fananatic August 5, 2011 1:35 PM BST
the brain and the pen aren't always the best of friends
Report Rocket to the FACE August 5, 2011 1:35 PM BST
The bit about LMAX, banned ads, rogue casino, empty horsey markets etc.
Report nairda August 5, 2011 1:36 PM BST
Betfair failed because it became too big for its own boots. It took its eye of the ball, and sought success in far flung corners, whilst taking its eye of the holy grail, that is the betting exchange

Time will tell
Report nairda August 5, 2011 1:36 PM BST
Horse racing turnover is down 15% to 20% over the last 2 weeks
Report Rocket to the FACE August 5, 2011 1:37 PM BST
Who writes an article without knowing the difference between 'of' and 'off'? They need new journalists.
Report bf_fananatic August 5, 2011 1:37 PM BST
Thats old news isnt it, haven't betfair already changed and changing some of there top staff positions?
Report bf_fananatic August 5, 2011 1:40 PM BST
Sports betting is down everywhere except football and some minor sports, at least betfair have maintained some growth from other sectors, overseas and products, hardly a disaster as this journalist
states?
Report Rocket to the FACE August 5, 2011 1:41 PM BST
Why are you always so desperate to defend Betfair?


Answer in one short sentence.
Report bf_fananatic August 5, 2011 1:42 PM BST
I have stated that betfair is ready for the world but is the old fashioned and over-regulated betting world ready for betfir?
Report funkymonkey August 5, 2011 1:42 PM BST
There are many who believe that under the stewardship of David Yu, the company has become too fixated with technology and with the holy grail of cracking the US market.


This seems to ring very true to me. I find it very hard to see how they would ever dominate the US market should it open up fully to them, with these obscene taxations on winners, its a no-brainer that the Americans themselves would undercut the pricing and offer a fairer priced platform. The BF model is just taking too big a chunk of the pie to leave itself competative in such a scenario.
Report bf_fananatic August 5, 2011 1:43 PM BST
because its all one sided, I always bet on the under-dog there the better price, and betfair do have good form[;)]
Report Lori August 5, 2011 1:45 PM BST
bf_fananatic Joined: 17 Jul 11
Replies: 677 05 Aug 11 13:43   
because its all one sided, I always bet on the under-dog there the better price, and betfair do have good form
 

Just be thankful you joined a gambling forum and not a world war two discussion group I guess.
Report bf_fananatic August 5, 2011 1:47 PM BST
in the states you pay 27% taxes if you win the lottery, you dont in the UK, Americans love thinking there the saints of free trade when in reality there greed in the 1930 wall street crash ended up causing global depression and a war that ended over 20 million lives !
Report ZEALOT August 5, 2011 1:47 PM BST
PARAGRAPHS
you utter t!tCryCryCryCryCry
Report bf_fananatic August 5, 2011 1:48 PM BST
Which they then profited from in arms sales and national loans !
Report dlarssonf August 5, 2011 1:49 PM BST
Always bet on the underdog because they are the better price?  Holy fcuk no wonder you are on the forum 24/7 because with logic like that you will never have to worry about any pc chargesLaugh
Report bf_fananatic August 5, 2011 1:50 PM BST
I cant expect persons with a low iq to understand the lessons from history, but I just want to point out that don't expect to much fairness from the congress over there and considering there current debt
they will be out to tax,tax,tax!
Report bf_fananatic August 5, 2011 1:53 PM BST
Graded dog races are often won by the underdog, the grading system gives nearly all runners an equal chance in theory so outsiders are better value!
Report bf_fananatic August 5, 2011 1:54 PM BST
Try laying all favorites in trap 4 and backing all time dogs in trap 6 in outsiders and you will always make a profit, simple reallyLaugh[;)]
Report Lori August 5, 2011 1:55 PM BST
You've just revealed your system.

I'm going to be very rich.
Report Feck N. Eejit August 5, 2011 1:55 PM BST
bff, should that not read "the world is ready for a global exchange but is betfair's old fashioned, over-complex interface and commission system ready for the world?
Report bf_fananatic August 5, 2011 1:57 PM BST
Cant relate that to the data before me, sorry!
Report bf_fananatic August 5, 2011 1:58 PM BST
Perhaps the emotions always get the better of some punters
Report bf_fananatic August 5, 2011 1:59 PM BST
anyway I have work to do, enjoy slating the exchange on its own forum, good day
Report nairda August 5, 2011 2:20 PM BST
Betfair in USA isn't a bed thing....Betfair TVG would make a profit this year, if betfair just stop hiring new people there:)))

Betfair spends to much money on technology over it's peers..technology is just a tool, nothing more


I happy for betfair do all these things, Im just not happy to pay for it in a 40%-60% PC
Report hazel August 5, 2011 2:21 PM BST
This is rather sad to me.

Not only are we reading articles like this in the media, we have a generally negative vibe about Betfair across a range of betting and financial forums.

Yet a few years ago Betfair was the bees knees. 

Want went wrong in the last few years can be summed up in three words... management, management, management
Report funkymonkey August 5, 2011 2:27 PM BST
I agree, I dont think its a bad thing either, just my feeling is that other companies will step in and increase competition there because the comm structure leaves too big a gap open to exploit.
Report mrbojangles August 5, 2011 2:36 PM BST
An outsider reading this could be forgiven for assuming this thread was discussing the demise of a company like Ratners,Northern Rock or some other "Failed" enterprise.

This companies balance sheet is pretty robust,plenty of cash and customer numbers increasing.....a position envied by most in these challenging times.

Increasing their presence in other territories will present challenges but they must persist in this quest or others will which will be more damaging long term.

The PC issue will sort itself out eventually as other competitors adopt similar charges(Easyjet,Ryanair fine examples of piggy backing ideas).
Report nairda August 5, 2011 2:47 PM BST
betfair has no debt and cash....but a 50mil share buy back on a falling share prices...a cash div pay out to shareholders ,, and 15% to 20% drop in turnover because of PC2, things can change real fast
Report Feck N. Eejit August 5, 2011 2:54 PM BST
Is the 15-20% drop a guess nairda?
Report nairda August 5, 2011 3:15 PM BST
no, not a guess....their a drop in horse racing,..it not 100% right, and there many factor, but their look to be a drop of 15% to 20%
Report DStyle August 5, 2011 3:19 PM BST
i am starting to wonder about the value of their technology.

they must have done some pretty bleeding edge stuff with oracle, but there's surely no way any of that can be betfair's proprietary software (?)
Report Johnny The Guesser August 5, 2011 3:23 PM BST
There is now a gap in the market for a crisp, clear, focused, exchange concentrating on providing value for money for all of its customers.It mustn't try to be everything to everybody and not chase ever increasing growth by diversfying away from its core markets.

This new exchange should not seek to take over the world but should provide a strong core product,coupled with a simple charging structure,that can provide long term sustainable profits together with a safe,secure,and fair,betting environment for everybody.

A few possible ideas :-

- Flat rate commission on all winning bets (2%)
- Transaction charge 0.2% on all bets.
- No in running horses.
- Hide the money queue

That'll do for starters...
Report DStyle August 5, 2011 3:25 PM BST
mrbojangles 05 Aug 11 14:36 
An outsider reading this could be forgiven for assuming this thread was discussing the demise of a company like Ratners,Northern Rock or some other "Failed" enterprise.

This companies balance sheet is pretty robust,plenty of cash and customer numbers increasing.....a position envied by most in these challenging times.



this of course is the most interesting bit of it all. what it confirms (as if everyone didn't already know) is that the core exchange business is profitable: there are no holes in the pure exchange betting model which require plugging to transform the business from a loss making one to a profitable one.
Report viva el presidente! August 5, 2011 3:26 PM BST
if they hadn't floated, where exactly would the evidence for this crisis lie?

in their cash pile or in their annual after tax profits?
Report DStyle August 5, 2011 3:29 PM BST
precisely vep - this is exactly it: it's all about forcing unnatural growth in order to satisify shareholders.

it's all very well "investing" in all these different products, but it's another matter entirely when you start interfering with your USP and most profitable part of the business.
Report nairda August 5, 2011 3:44 PM BST
DStyle

This is right...betfair need to take more money from core exchange business to pay for the other sh!t....Im not happy to pay for it
Report viva el presidente! August 5, 2011 3:57 PM BST
another thing to point out is that disposable incomes are at a more or less all-time post baldrick/luftwaffe low. and recreational (ie losing) gambling is ultimately discretionary spending.

so by what benchmark are current results being judged?

that's assuming that the key thing driving the share price down is results as opposed to possible regulatory pressure being priced in.
Report nairda August 5, 2011 4:01 PM BST
thing also to remember... core exchange business is where betfair make it's most money, and of this Horse racing is 42.1% and soccer is 42.3% of betfair ...this means, that if Betduck make big inroads on Horse racing and soccer, betduck can take a big profits away from betfair
Report viva el presidente! August 5, 2011 4:10 PM BST
it's been said before nairda that the biggest niche for a new exchange would be one focussed exclusively on a specific sport.

I think there's some merit to that. BF's so diluted its USP, that thefootballexchange dot com or some such, aggressively marketed as a fan v fan thing and maybe throwing in a few prop bets and new markets, could really work.
Report nairda August 5, 2011 4:18 PM BST
I think betduck horse racing tirnover is about 15% to betfair...and raising
Report nairda August 5, 2011 4:19 PM BST
"refund commission on match odds markets involving Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man Utd & Man City"   LaughLaugh
Report funkymonkey August 5, 2011 4:25 PM BST
it's been said before nairda that the biggest niche for a new exchange would be one focussed exclusively on a specific sport.

I think there's some merit to that. BF's so diluted its USP, that thefootballexchange dot com or some such, aggressively marketed as a fan v fan thing and maybe throwing in a few prop bets and new markets, could really work.



I have said this several times on here before and I totally believe that would indeed work, especially in football. Given the right comm rates and a totally person to person feel, loads of people would migrate to it. No rip offs, just a low rate comm and a simple easy to use interface, coupled with a trust in the niche product and no need to satisfy shareholders or grow "fat". Just a steady roller. Makes perfect sense and I think it will be soon to come.
Report viva el presidente! August 5, 2011 4:30 PM BST
dragon's den, here we come!
Report nairda August 5, 2011 4:35 PM BST
funkymonkey

I think you will get to see this happen
Report funkymonkey August 5, 2011 4:38 PM BST
Lets hope so :)
Report Johnny The Guesser August 5, 2011 4:46 PM BST
I'm in!
Report ballabriggs August 5, 2011 4:51 PM BST
There are no hole in tradetionel bet excange model.  There are only hole in way charge are made to custemer.  Put a 60% charge flat on custemer is NUMNUMNUTSduh loooooooooooooool. Need a bigger TOBIN tax per trade, and smaller charge than 60% on remander.
Report viva el presidente! August 5, 2011 5:01 PM BST
utterly stupid idea ballabriggs, which I presume is pocket talk on your part.

charging per transaction discourages market makers and traders, and therefore results in slacker overrounds and a less competitive offer to the recreational punter. ie lost business  to traditional bookmakers.
Report ballabriggs August 5, 2011 5:54 PM BST
"charging per transaction discourages market makers and traders"

So trader pay similar comissens to rest of us?  Good news no?
Report viva el presidente! August 5, 2011 6:01 PM BST
not if they stop narrowing the spread in the markets you play, no.

where do you think those 100.2% overrounds come from? people with a 0.2% different opinion of what the true odds are, who are on commission-free deals the rest of us have never heard of?

ffs
Report caleyjags August 5, 2011 6:10 PM BST
bf_fananatic Date Joined: 17 Jul 11
Got any write ups on will hill s bookmakers they make massive losses of 100s of millions each year


http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/05/william-hill-idUSL6E7J40YD20110805

Fri Aug 5, 2011 6:21am EDT

* H1 operating profit 147.7 mln stg vs f'cst 141.6 mln

Peel Hunt upgraded its forecast for William Hill's full-year operating profit by 4 percent to 270 million pounds.
Report Misspoker August 5, 2011 6:17 PM BST
For somebody who claims to have never made a bet you know a lot about the place bf_fananatic
Report Feck N. Eejit August 5, 2011 7:12 PM BST
charging per transaction discourages market makers and traders, and therefore results in slacker overrounds and a less competitive offer to the recreational punter. ie lost business  to traditional bookmakers.

WALOFS. If middlemen are needed (and I don't think they are) then that's a function of the stupid interface.
Report DStyle August 5, 2011 7:14 PM BST
variable commission rates based on the number of submitted (i.e. including cancelled) bets in a single market with a ceiling.
Report Rollo Tomasi August 5, 2011 7:49 PM BST
In every other business new customers are given discounts. Betfair made the mistake of charging them the most.

5% for new customers but just 2% for those that were going to stay anyway was a fatal mistake. Hence they didn't get enough new customers so now have to try charge the ones who did stay too much.

They should have charged new customers 2% and increased it for people who were in profit - but not at the ridiculous rates they are now trying.

It's too late because with the initial "winners aren't welcome" PC they let the cat out of the bag that even a small commission rate adds up to 20% plus. Who is going to pay that now when they can see that the prices are no longer "20% better" to make up for it?
Report pmbets August 5, 2011 10:45 PM BST
I think people are just withdrawing the liquidity from the markets at a faster growing pace.
There are many reasons for this.But I think the long recession we are entering now is the main reason.
And it looks as if Betfair have introduced the PC2 charge at just the wrong time.
It reminds me of 2001-2002 when a person had to wait ages for someone to
put up a bad price .The spreads are getting wider and the liquidity reducing which is a very bad sign.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR August 5, 2011 11:11 PM BST
A specific exchange for football.
I would be in like flynn.
Report Duncan Disordorli August 6, 2011 8:36 AM BST
Accepting the obviously one sided view, it`s hard to disagree with that article.
The article astonishingly fails to even mention the PC and the untold damge it has not only done, but will continue to do. This immoral charge has ensured BF`s future growth will be affected even if those that ignore the exchange have zero chance of paying it. THIS is the shocking mismanagement blunder of all blunders..and there`s been many. That winners are unwelcome is no real shock..bookies have been playing that game for years, but wait for the reaction by BF to its fixed odds arm...do they think the sharks and winners are going to start losing ? The damage done to the share price is not just because of market conditions...this company has NOWHERE to go. The US is a pipedream and there is not a single serious gambler who doesn`t already use BF in this country.
Mark Davies is allowed to walk out of the door without even a director there to shake his hand. Andrew Black saw the storm coming and retires..I could go on, the firm totally lacks direction, management and worse understanding of the betting business. Only BF know how bad figures are today...that a horserace turns over £1M is a smokescreen. How many actual punters played in that race of the millions registered here ? I suggest comm figs retained by BF are at an alltime low. Yet what do they do ?...show punters the door by inferring that only mugs are welcome.

This firm COULD go bust you know. Because it is basically the emperor`s new clothes..there is nothing here....purple offers the same service yet still cannot take over the reins, astonishing. But BF will panic...and one wrong move could be disaster.

They have themselves to blame and could be seeding their own markets soon to cover the fact that this business is deteriorating rapidly...job losses will surely be the next step.
And you know what the worst aspect is ? Nobody really cares anymore...from the greatest ever innovation to a PR disaster in a decade...that takes some doing.
Betfair management you should all be ashamed of yourselves.
Report Latalomne August 6, 2011 8:43 AM BST
I've not placed a bet here since PC2 came in (or posted a comment), but this 'sport specific' exchange idea is a cracker, IMHO.  I always thought that 'the competition' needed to expand its portfolio of markets provided in order to compete, but, thinking about it, tennis and football specific exchanges, offering the full range of markets on the main tours/leagues would make much more sense.
Report DeKaiser August 6, 2011 10:02 AM BST
Corals in big financial trouble due to their bingo chain.
Report 1.01 Layer August 6, 2011 10:11 AM BST
I can see how the numbers lend themselves to specific exchanges for football, horses and probably tennis but what about golf, then cricket, rugby and all the minority betting sports.  Some poorhouse exchange(s) run on a shoestring with naff all passing trade from the "main" sports.
   
Some people are going to need some more screens Shocked
Report TheVis August 6, 2011 10:53 AM BST
Had to laugh at the opening piece with SportingBet being classed as "the first-class fixed-odds bookmaking product which it needs"

If they are first class then heaven help the rest of the industry Laugh
Report bf_fananatic August 6, 2011 1:14 PM BST
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Gee Nairda love the way the some press make successful companies look like silly cartoon characters
cant wait to tell crabby and gary about your crazy ideas when am at work flipping burgersBlush
Report Bobman84. August 6, 2011 4:16 PM BST
Very well said to the poster 'Duncan'.

Liquidity has not been as good this Saturday for the UK meetings as Saturdays in weeks gone-by.

Seems to be quite a changing place now.
Report funkymonkey August 6, 2011 4:54 PM BST
Yes, excellent post Duncan, sums it up very well indeed imo.

The thing that gets me is that we all know the exchange concept is a cracking one, and seeing as its basically open market for any company to use and replicate the idea of either niche exchanges as I have previously mentioned, or indeed just more purples and smarkets out there, there is absolutely no reason why start-ups cant simply create a basic, simple interface with low level comm for life.

Just because BF went the stock market route, needing ever-growing profits to satisfy the monster, does not mean small well organised companies cant simply operate effeciently on a budget, taking all the great ideas that made the exchange concept appeal in the first place and rolling with a modest but consistent profit, whilst being a win-win alliance with their customer base.

The argument that the other places then become shark pools as they just eat up the little guys does not stand up when the prices you can back and lay are identical, or in many cases better, than here, as we have been seeing now for sometime and it continues to grow.

I am not a bot player or a market maker, but i do play lots of markets and less and less are needed here as the value is almost always elsewhere now, thats for damned sure.
Report nairda August 6, 2011 5:13 PM BST
funkymonkey

that the point...If team A is 2.00-2.02 on betfair...and I want to back Team A for 1.96 on betdq,

my bet will be ab between betfair and betdq, my 1.96 bet plus commis of 2.5% at betdq, will be better value for me then 2.00 at PC of 40% on betfair...I will still win, and the money will still leave betfair
Report funkymonkey August 6, 2011 5:20 PM BST
Yes, exactly nairda.
Report allinadayswork August 6, 2011 11:54 PM BST
Haven't had a bet here since the PC2 and I won't be treated with contempt, even if I'm not in any of the brackets to pay PC currently, not a million miles away from the PC1 and I would never agree to pay that ever thank you. My style of betting is flexible enough to be able to walk away.
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