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eddien
04 Aug 11 02:43
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Date Joined: 17 Jun 09
| Topic/replies: 15 | Blogger: eddien's blog
im up and down like a yoyo. big wins and big losses. incredibly, ive had more wins then losses, but my account seems to go down at the wrong times. what are some of the strategies that you use? i hear alot about betting no more then 5% of your bank on any one bet. but how are you suppose to make some decent money with such small bets. someone? anything?

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Replies: 12
By:
undern
When: 04 Aug 11 02:44
start with a bigger bank [;)]
By:
Lori
When: 04 Aug 11 10:20
5% is too high.

. but how are you suppose to make some decent money with such small bets.

1) Have a lot of bets
2) Have a bigger bank
3) Redefine decent
By:
dlarssonf
When: 04 Aug 11 10:44
4) think long term
By:
thewolfofbadenoch
When: 04 Aug 11 14:35
compound interest
By:
racingguru
When: 04 Aug 11 16:05
People tend to set their goals too high and bet recklessly accordingly.

Doubling your bank in one season is perfectly acceptable, 150% is great and anything beyond is fantastic but probably reckless/lucky. Obviously this is applicable to straight betting/laying and Traders will have different achievable goals.
By:
Compound Magic
When: 04 Aug 11 16:55
I agree with most of the points suggested.

Have a look at level stakes on your bets and see how much you can realistically expect to win over 100 bets. If you think you can outlay 100 @ 1.00 per bet and at the end of the 100 bets get a net return of 104.00 that's 4% profit. Now if you had those 100 bets over a year it would not be worth the effort. It would be a different story however if you could do this every week. 4% * 52 = 208% per year, compounded would be approx 668% or after two years on a bank of 1K compounded you would have around 59K for a profit of 58K.

To achieve the above results for me at my ratio of 3 win bets to 8 lay bets, my win bets need to be only 1.3% of the bank and the lays need to be 10% of the bank (liability not
stake). I manage to place approx 90 wagers per day but only on one day a week.

Your start bank only needs to be big enough to cover minimum bet sizes. Good luck.
By:
Mordin.
When: 04 Aug 11 23:58
Treat your account like one of your bank accounts.
By:
eddien
When: 05 Aug 11 00:09
thanks for your thoughts. if you got a bank of say 1000. and you aim at 5%. so your betting 50 every bet. you win some, you lose some. over the  next few weeks you would most likely be back to evens, or close enough to it. surely at some stage you need to up the ante. somewhere along the line you need to decide whereyou can make more then just 5%, and place a 200-300 bet. no matter how much 'maths' you put into your thoughts, sooner or later your goona need some luck to push you along.
By:
tobermory
When: 05 Aug 11 00:48
Betting £300 a go you could be down to nothing pretty soon even with good picks if you have bad luck.

£50 is actually too high really.

As others say above if you can do a lot of bets, then , if you have a good selection method , £20 bets will see the bank rise quickly, and you can increase the stakes without risking a higher %
By:
Trevh
When: 05 Aug 11 01:39
Eddien, you say "you will most likely be back to evens, or close enough to it" but that's not strictly true as commission paid will slowly but surely erode your bank. You might be paying just 5% in commission per bet, but at the end of the month after you've bounced up and down lots of times you might have turned over 10k even with a small bank, have a level gross profit & loss, but be £500 down because that's what you've paid in commission. 

The answer isn't "somewhere along the line you need to decide where you can make more then just 5%, and place a 200-300 bet" because as Tobermory says you will more than likely just lose faster doing that. If you aren't succeeding with small stakes, upping the ante is the last thing you should be thinking of.

So we end up back at the value debate, which isn't really a debate but a fact. If you can get an extra 10% on every price you take (that's the hard bit) then you will defeat commission and your bank will grow instead of ending "back at evens" or worse. Completely obvious I know, but greatly misunderstood it seems.
By:
Compound Magic
When: 05 Aug 11 02:55
But but but..... Cue....

You can't eat value.... It's no good if it's value and it doesn't win ....
Laugh
By:
TheInvestor2
When: 05 Aug 11 03:13
Play with tiny stakes and do everything you can to make your profits as consistent as possible to prove to yourself that you actually have an edge. How much money you actually make doesn't matter, so long as it is consistent. Then scale up when successful.
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