General Betting
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Four month trial, you only get 1 shot .
15 jars in a row, you cannot see into the jars , in each jar there are 6 marbles 2 of the marbles are painted red the other 4 marbles are black .
Ok you place your hand into the jar mix around and must take out any 2 marbles at once with out looking . Q. what are the odds on going 15 in a row with out ever taking a red marble.
I know the answer . This system makes £40 to £80 a day every day . if you get it spot on I could divulge the system . No fee all free .
15 jars in a row, you cannot see into the jars , in each jar there are 6 marbles 2 of the marbles are painted red the other 4 marbles are black .
Ok you place your hand into the jar mix around and must take out any 2 marbles at once with out looking . Q. what are the odds on going 15 in a row with out ever taking a red marble.
I know the answer . This system makes £40 to £80 a day every day . if you get it spot on I could divulge the system . No fee all free .
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1 in 438 times
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0.0001073741824% or 931322-1
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Are they different temperatures like the FA Cup draw?
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1 in 14348907
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1 in 931322.5746
((4/6)*(3/5))^15 |
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I'm having a dumb moment, but how can there be a decimal place when there's an intergral number of combinations?
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As per DStyle apparantly got in while I was getting it done... :)
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(FWIW I get the same answer, but I'm not happy with it having decimals)
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you can have his system if you want it BJT
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How do you know if you're not allowed to look?
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Nevermind, there's more than one successful combination, really must drink more coffee.
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Well I am certainly no expert and your question confuses me. I simply know how to work it out, so I am assuming the conversion to the 1/ is the problem?
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I was being particularly dumb.
I was thinking there was only one "winning" combination of events, which would mean it should be 1 in xxxxxx.00 |
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Cheers DStyle. Never know, his system may only require a bank of 2 bucks and be making that much a day... Who knows the possibilities? lol, not so easy to work out... :P
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the numerator and denominator have to be integers lori, i.e. 32768 in 30517578125
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Ahh ok, but in reality only the combination of all possible results should be one, leaving decimal chances all over the shop.....
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Cheers DStyle, I got there in the end. Feeling incredibly silly now.
Good thing I don't rely on numbers for... wait, crap. |
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So the answer is right, just the formality of the writing of it is wrong yeah?
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It's just right, I was being dumb.
If the question was selecting both red balls from each jar, then it would be 1 in xxxxxxx.00 because of all the possible combinations there would only be one "winner" As DStyle points out, in the real question then there are xxxxx ways in xxxxxxxxxxxxx to actually "win" which can easily result in a decimal. |
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For each dip, there are 30 combinations (6 first marbles * 5 second marbles); of these combinations 12 are all red marbles and 18 have at least one black marbles. So the probbaility of not getting a black in a single dip is 12/30 (=2/5, same as BJT). So probability of not getting a black in 15 dips is
(2/5)^15 = 0.000001073741824 or 1 in 931322.57 approx (as BJT). @Lori - what's the issue with the dp? The probability is 32768 in 30517578125 (2^5 in 5^5) if you want it in integers, it's only expressing it as '1 in ...' gives decimals. |
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Cheers longbridge (Appreciate it, posts have obviously crossed since I sorted out my stupidity)
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Cheers guys, understand all the questions now.... Sitting well in my head... :)
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Lori, move onto Schalke's thread, you'll feel like a genius on there even on an off day.
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Posting for zipper OK hes on holiday ( The Nurse) you guys are flipping about marbles in a jar get a life zips been on the phone from the South Of France and told me to place 2 bets on his behalf on his account 3.45 Pepper Lane 5.15 Fosgate bets are placed at about 7.7 and 7.0 and place x 8 spoke to him 1 hour ago he says that Ok feed the dogs ...aint he something The Nurse .
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Q. what are the odds on going 15 in a row with out ever taking a red marble
A. 931321.57/1 |
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1 in 931322.57
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wd zipper pepper lane won.
did not get on only just seen post  |
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Agreed freddie cheers zip [:D]
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it's a trick question.
the correct answer is: "no thanks" |
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wd zipper nice double.
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There are 2 answers possible due to uncertain condition in the question.
Question condition 1 , 15 lots of 2 red marbles in a row = 1 in 91552734374.9999 chance. Question condition 2 , 15 red marbles in a row =1 in 703125 chance. |
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oh dear red not black lol, oh well its been answered i see
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Considering the vagueness of the free trial offer in the OP, is this perhaps one of those comps. you might be better off not winning ?
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the odds are 0/1 or 1.00 or 100%, assuming of course you are actually trying not to pick the ones that have been painted...
do i win?  |
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Seems to be an interesting way to spam without getting your thread littered with "SPAM". :)
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I cant help thinking that anyone trying this puzzle out will only end up losing there marbles
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Well it isn't really a puzzle is it, just a probability equation. System works good though, all the time I have spent in this forum over the last couple of days has easily saved me 40-80, and then some... :)
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I know bjt it was a probability question, my answer was correct but for getting sequences of red not black, whoops. If only the probability equations needed to tissue price a race was as easy to formalize!
But the interpretations of factors single and grouped and there singular and global effects on prediction accuracy are very complex, add to that chaos theory, variable external conditions, track variability and missing factors and many x factors and you certainly do have a puzzle on your hands that calls for new probability concepts for working on related data fields. As usual as in the past when commercial software could never give me the power I needed and I created my own I also having studied statistical analysis and found little on prediction modeling that was useful I had to ad hock, trial , think tank and discover new "missing" important devices missing in the field of probability calculation, I can never reveal the nature of the said "devices" but believe me there is so much in the known and unknown world or universe that we cannot hope to decipher it without one day resorting to AI , computers are opening new doors everyday and most new discovering involve the application of computers, super computers sometimes, these are indeed exciting times! |