General Betting
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Just an idea i've be thinking about. I don't think i'll ever be a big winner/punter on here although its what i aspire to like many others. Most weeks i make approx £50 - £100 a week laying football using 10% of my betting bank. I get the occasional loss that knocks me back a bit, recover and move on. The point is i can never seem to break out into the big money stakes/wins. This is probably due to too small a betting bank, lack of adequete betting skills or something else. I dont have the time to become a trader so thats out, not sure i could make it work anyhow. I am now thinking my best chance of winning big bucks is to withdraw a certain amount per week and chance it on a yankee in the bookies, back 4 pricewise tips or something like that. Sooner or later i'll get a decent win out of it unlike my current betting system. Just wondering what people think and does anyone else on here try this and have you ever got a big winning bet in. A £5 yankee costs £45 per bet, something id never place as i dont have that amount of disposable income per week for 2 -3 yankees a week. However using the small wins from betfair might provide the odd big win. Anyone got any ideas on this type of punting??
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Replies: 25
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are u consistently making 100 a week? why dont u up stake a little? after 2 months 100 a week u have extra 800 in ur bank
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If you turn into a successful punter you will not be welcome on here thats for sure . I'd go to another exchange with your system If I was you.
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He's too plain lazy anyway for that original piece of advice ?
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When my betting bank reaches 1k i withdraw £100. This is usually on a weekly basis unless i get a loss (10% of bank) in which case it takes a bit longer to build back up to 1k bank. Dont get me wrong, im delighted with this but ive got a good winning system and want to exploit it. Im just afraid my betting system will go pear shaped and ill lose entire bank, thats why i withdraw at 1k mark and have something to show for it. My problem is making that big step from small time punter to serious layer. Not sure how to go about it so am thinking of chancing the bookies with long shot bets in the hope of eventually hitting the big one.
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A £5 yankee costs £45 per bet
£55 Yes you would at some point get one up for a grand or more , but you would likely have done a lot more before then adding up all those £55s. If your laying method is sound enough you will build up to a big bank from it . If you don't then it is probably flawed in some way. |
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Yeah, a yankee would be £55 at £5 a bet. I think i'll try building my bank up and see how far i can get. I'm pretty confident in my 'system'working in the long term, has done for a while. Can anyone tell me when the PC kicks in, are you safe if you keep under 1000 markets per 60 weeks??
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When my betting bank reaches 1k i withdraw £100. This is usually on a weekly basis unless i get a loss (10% of bank) in which case it takes a bit longer to build back up to 1k bank. Dont get me wrong, im delighted with this but ive got a good winning system and want to exploit it. Im just afraid my betting system will go pear shaped and ill lose entire bank, thats why i withdraw at 1k mark and have something to show for it. My problem is making that big step from small time punter to serious layer. Not sure how to go about it so am thinking of chancing the bookies with long shot bets in the hope of eventually hitting the big one.
If you have a true edge and it sounds like you do, you should keep your winnings as part of your bank and keep re-investing, the powers of compound interest are phenomenal. If you are staking correctly, the odd set back shouldn't have that much of an effect - you seriously have to consider it as a year - 2 year investment. If you start losing you can quit while in good profit. Good luck. |
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Does his strategy need paragraphs to make it work?
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Plain Lazy, it's difficult to see why you can't make more money doing what you're doing.
10% sounds like you may be grossly over staking, but if you can make £50-100 a week you should be able to concentrate on scaling up. How long have you been successful? How many bets per week? Is your method mechanical/set in stone, or based on guessing which teams won't win etc? When I was in your position I set out to create a method that I could repeat without involving guess work (predictions) and put it into action with a strict staking plan at 0.5% of the betting bank, which I've since lowered to 0.25%, but obviously your percentage will be based around your average odds, but 10% sounds very high risk. How much do you want to make per week? It sounds like you may have delusions of grandeur :) |
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talking of delusions of grandeur trev, 89% of the forum posters are struggling to pay there pc2 bill [;)]
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I can tell from your last post you have a good concept of betting and risk, and give good advice. noted[:D]
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@trevh , hi , just wondering , isnt every bet a prediction? ie man u v wolves , everything points to a man u win , doesnt mean it will happen tho.
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Not really Aueng, this is the point that all value non believers (Schalke04, Undern etc) monumentally fail to grasp.
Trying to succeed through predicting winners is all but impossible if you are price insensitive (many of the prices taken by the posters mentioned above are easily beatable by 30-40%), but of course it can appear successful for a short while. If you can identify and get matched at value odds it doesn't matter about which side you choose, but I don't really want to get tangled up in another value debate. |
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thanks for reply. no worries , was just curious!
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best tip get a job
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Plain Lazy
Do you lay teams or correct scores? how many do you play with per week. Surely if you double your stakes you will win more consistantly. Id stay away from yankees though. |
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Thanks for replies guys. I lay away teams if i consider it a value lay. This is based on a combination of stats, form, head to head, tips and my own gut feeling as a football fan. Not very mechanical but it works for me. I am over staking at 10%, so perhaps i should build my betting bank up and lower my stakes. I know the powers of compounding, thats how i got my betting bank up to 1k in the first place. I need to see the bigger picture, build my betting bank up and make a certain amount per number of lays while risking a lower percentage of my bank. I average about 10 -12 lays per week, 6-8 during summer months. I lay up to 9.0 (8/1), depends if i consider it a value price. This is why i have finally started to make some money on here, i've finally copped on to value and how important it is to betting. Value and discipline are now my betting motto.
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Continue as you are and best of luck. Greed kills off a lot of us. Greed and indiscipline are two awful sins.
Do you green out or leave the lay ride out? |
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but if u get caught on one 9/1 lay
 be careful |
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Why don't you use a smaller % of your bank but just use that percentage no matter where the bank is at.
Going on your 10% just adjust you stake to suit 10(x)% of your given bank on each day. So 1000 is 100 liability, 1500 is 150 liability, etc. Happy days [:)] |
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My problem is making that big step from small time punter to serious layer
Just do it slowly. Compound your profits and you will soon arrive exactly where you want to be.   |
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I rarely lay @ 9.0, usually average 4.0 - 7.0, but the odd value lay at that price pops up. I am always reviewing my staking plan so will look at that The Ocho, sounds an interesting one. I think the best way to go is build my bank up while lowering my exposure.
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Trevh you usually post some great advice and your beliefs wouldn't be far away from mine but I can't agree with you saying you are taking predictions out of the equation.
Yes you have to back value or you won't succeed , yes only long term will tell whether you are getting value or not ( I always believe when I bet its value although its not necessarily so ) and yes you have to be price sensitive. Having taken all that into consideration you are still predicting unless you can see into the future |
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Dlarssonf, I think we briefly had this discussion on another thread (probably Schalke's) and yes I know what you mean, but I'm just saying it as it is for me - I don't make any predictions regarding winners or losers, that was the main thing I wanted to eliminate as it's a non consistent element of gambling. So I honestly don't care after having placed a bet whether it wins or loses, I know that sounds perverse though.
For example, going back to the over used coin tossing examples, I wouldn't dream of studying the form of heads or tails for seasons on end in the belief that I could find an edge, but that's essentially what many punters do. I'm happy to back or lay heads or tails with no prediction to it's outcome. Obviously I will need to calculate chances and prices fairly accurately, and then attempt to get matched, obviously in the coin toss example at greater than 2.0 if backing, are you calling that making a prediction? I don't need to look at long runs of results to know whether I'm getting value or not, I always know before the event, and if I can't get the price I want I don't bet. Nothing clever about any of that, but thankfully most punters are prediction makers and not really bothered about prices that much. Reading that back through, it doesn't read very well, what I'm trying to say is I don't try to predict winners, back this, back that, lay this, lay that, I just predict the price, so yes in that sense I make predictions of odds (but I still don't care if it loses or wins). Oh and thanks for the compliment :) |
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Yes Trevh I agree with what you are saying there, one individual market is not going to affect the long term picture as long as you are obtaining value, so yes I am not worried about losing bets either.
Thanks for the reply and I wish you continued success with your strategy(s)  |