General Betting
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lucky lucky people...
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Are you fishing?
Doubt those paying PC are getting lucky. |
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still doing horses paul
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Horses is probably one of the most profitable but you have to be one of four things:
1. Smarter/more attentive than a large % of odds compilers & handicappers. 2. Be in the know. 3. Fast pic/Course goer. 4. Cheater. |
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and soccer and darts aueng. gonna hang up my gambling boots i think.
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WW, you need none of those things if you have a notion of the degree of fluctuations typical of price movements before a race, if you understand the mechanics of place terms, if you have compiled data on how horses from certain yards are likely to run given betting patterns, if you have open accounts with books and can arb etc etc etc.
Anyone who has developed an edge in any sport will think it is hard to lose over a reasonably long period (say a month). And if you're not in this position, you must ask y/s 'why not?' Why carry out punting unless your aspiration is to win w/out much fuss? |
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why dont u just stick to football and darts??? u seem to do ok with them. always i see u losing on horses
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mostly losses on which one , horses?
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askari
I'm not a HR punter. But I'm curious about one phrase you just used as follows "----the mechanics of place terms -- ". What exactly are those mechanics ? |
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I'm a winner personally Askari, there's so much free money out there daily. It's just getting on in volume and consistently.
I'm afraid that if I step up my game, all my accounts will go down the ****. Then it's a totally different league trying to get an army of accounts etc. I'm pondering every day though. |
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Maybe he just means getting value on the places by laying off on betfair due to differences with rules to bookies in particular races?
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I'm afraid that if I step up my game, all my accounts will go down the ****. Then it's a totally different league trying to get an army of accounts etc.
how do you mean WW? |
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hi paul
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Keep up the research into why you are losing paul and you maybe will turn the corner. Nothing lucky about having money taken off you that ought to be yours is it unless I am missing something?
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Frog, could he be referring to differences in pricing between the Place markets and the Win markets? On occasions a horse will have odds that give him a greater or a lesser chance of winning in the Place market then you might expect given his odds in the Win market. I know there's more to it then that, but I would assume that sort of arbing is what he means by the 'mechanics of place terms'... If I'm wrong Askari, feel free to point out my mistake! (I'm sure Frog would also be interested to hear)
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But Wicked's explanation sounds good too....
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how do you mean WW?
Once you are a consistent proven winner, be it by just being shrewd about betting in sub 100% books or just generally solid in backing stuff that goes off shorter, it becomes less about picking the selections, it's getting on. To make a proper living in this game without using Betfair, you need lots of accounts for each bookmaker because inevitably they will reduce your stakes to a pittance or just ban you. |
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to the OP : luck has nothing to do with it. Nothing at all.
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Lord Bobbin do you pay the PC?
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Not yet....
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FATH, in 16 runner plus hcaps, four horses get placed at one quarter the odds.
The true odds of a horse placing are well VERY FREQUENTLY well below the place part of the win and place odds quoted by bookmakers. Roughly, to give fair value (a 100%) on the place terms of a 16 runner race, the bookmakers wd have to go to 129% on the overround (that is, on the win odds). You have to take both the win and place bets (one bad value, one very good value) but with trading, overstaking on one part and understaking on the other part of the arb and various other backing and laying strategies (that become necessary with withdrawals), you can make a very substantial profit. I am primarily a layer, with arbing and outright backing strategies in that order. This kind of race represents less than 20% of the races I play on but typically between 40 and 50% of my profits. A lot of these will be due to understanding the ins and outs of these markets and knowing how to extract the value from these bets. |
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WW, if you live in a city and have friends, you shd be able to keep betting on the High St.
What always surprises me about professional and would-be professional bettors' threads is how they think so much about value (i.e. pricing) and so little about the the implicit value of the relationships they have. These could be relationships with placers, with receptive shop staff, with workers at bf or online bm s, or with sympathetic bosses, family members etc. Balancing betting with work (if you work) and family life is just as much a matter of maintaining these healthy relationships as it is of the finding the value. |
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FATH, there is also another pretty much guaranteed win from betting both win and place in races where there are eight runners and an odds on favourite.
Both these loopholes, together with Tattersalls rule 4 (the deduction rules for withdrawals), are hated by bookmakers and they have had public and whispering campaigns to close them e.g. to offer separate place prices. One reason they haven't made the move is that they can price much more sensitively now with the tissue provided to them by bf. Possibly another is that the passing generation of shop players (who grew up on the horses) both expect to lose and have an idea that they will be treated fairly. There is a risk of alienating them by changing--better to move players onto football and the fruit machines. The BHA, in hock to bookies, tried (I think four years ago?) to get rid of all but a few historic 16 runner + hcaps. It was blocked because of the tracks rather than the punters. Most punters instinctively think that an 18 runner class 2 hcap (say, a backend mile on rain-softened going) is impossible to solve. In fact, it's probably the best betting medium the sport has to offer for a bettor who wants to exploit multiple edges and dislikes variance. |
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Askari
Now I remember why I don't bother with HR. Far too complex for my small brain. But tks. very much for the replies. Though not of any attraction to me ( eg I simply wouldn't know where to start even to try to understand the basic handicapping system ), I would expect your replies might have sparked some new thoughts on angles in a few others who are into HR. |
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Yes, thanks for the explanations Askari. Very interesting.
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FATH, in my experience it is generally very difficult w/ horses to come up w/ a winning strategy that 'finds winners at a reasonable strike rate'.
Alternatively, it's easy as hell to find the winners but very difficult to make the whole scheme a profitable one on a level stakes basis. This is the opposite, as far as I understand, from line betting on US sports, where yr concern is w/ predicting the result and w/ rationally cautious bank management. It is easy, on the other hand, to find value between 10-1 and 20-1 in horses, based on all of systems that capture emerging patterns, visual information and good judgment of 'intangible' factors such as whether individual horses will like the ground based on pedigree and action etc. The prob. w/ these is that the variance is painful and that it's hard to deploy a large bank on yr selections. If you're a professional w/ an army of placers and yard info., you will prob. just take value bets and spend yr time researching in the sense of repeatedly watching race recordings. When I was a value bettor, I wd often see something on the fourth playback of a 6f two year maiden that helped me to make good winning bets. But if you're a v. keen amateur like me whose bank has grown, you would prob. do better to develop strategies based on stats while watching fewer races, harness price volatility in yr favour (e.g. by bookmaking and arbing). You can still have a few outright bets and lose on them, but you'll only be tolerated up to the maximum 'permission-to-lay' on any bet, so (unless you have multiple multiple personalities) will be hard-pushed to get much of yr bank on. |
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we know you and your 59 hourly siblings are born though paulme.
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pardon viva?
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"fools rush in where wise men fear to tread"
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I prefer viva las vegas.
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Askari : there is also another pretty much guaranteed win from betting both win and place in races where there are eight runners and an odds on favourite.
Interesting posts Askari. I only play football now, but when I was doing my apprenticeship and learning about gambling I dabbled unsuccessfully with horses, but one method I used that didn't show losses was backing 2nd favourites in e/w lucky 15's when the favourite was odds on. I might have another go at that for fun, or do you think I would be wasting my time? |