Advice on whether I should start using money

Might as well give it a go and see how you get on.

Depends how many months/years the 730 bets are over as to whether the edge is good or not. If it's taken you 10 years to have that many bets then it's probably too high. If it's taken you a week then it's very good.

Its taken over about a 3 week period as I back 2 horses per race to win.

The edge calculation is as follows as I use the staking machine for recording purposes. The staking machine does it all for me -

Edge = ((Average Winning Odds*1-1)*(Strike rate/100))-(1*(1-(Strike rate/100)))
Simplified Edge =( Average Winning Odds – 1 * Strike rate) – (1 – Strike rate)

All I know is that as a rule only one horse will win a race. HTH [;)]

seems like you have a very good system, over 756 bets you are moving towards a reliable edge but as long as your said system is based on factors that not selected from the sample group and bias to that group, your selection process has clear definitions and not exposed to grey areas, you have eliminated possible loss making factors or groups of factors, and you haven't used tipsters as there selection process are mostly non reliable or prone to market support distortion of price. 

bear also in mind that with the vast array in horse racing tracks and going conditions plus variations in seasonal peaks and troughs in trainers performance that a sub 1000 item list of examples may not truly reflect the large variation in such data possible!

have you also tested your system over the three main betting bands, favorites , mid priced and outsiders[a five plus band grouping being more accurate] as some systems work better at different
fore-casted starting price and fail at others due to market forces!

PS

bf_fananatic been here 1 week - so ignore


thank me  later

tar

a key aspect of this, if you're going to use the forum for information, is to be able to identify the frauds

you misunderstand

I did not say that it was key for me to identify the frauds for you

I'm sure you're aware that not everything on here is reliable

I'm naturally sceptical anyway. For example your question has got me thinking that this thread might not be all it appears to be

So far I have proofed 730 bets with a 19.45% strike rate.
My ROI is 12.15
My Edge is 17.01%
All at level stakes Betfair prices.

In your honest opinion how many more proofed bets would I need to go for the real money staking. Also are the figures above a good return for that many bets?

You don't need the forum to answer those question Don, you already know the answers. I remember you from several years ago, possibly spring 2008, when you had your own thread and put up early morning selections with quite a success rate iirc.

With a 17% edge you should start using real money immediately!

Hehe, I didn't mean it like that Frog, but you're probably right. I had The Laying Don marked as a clever punter all that time ago, if he hasn't been successful I don't think it'll be through lack of knowledge.

TLD - Just so you have some stats to compare against ......Currently I am checking a STRATEGY where 2 horses from top 3/4 rated ( If horse is odds on in top 3, I ignore it,....and use the 4th top rated horse as well) are selected to BACK. The top rated is always one of the BACKED ones, unless it is odds on, then ignored, plus 1 other in each race ( the odds are used as part of selection process between the 2 horses that are not top rated).

From 1910 backs, a net profit of 175 points would have been made at BF SP..................giving ROI of 9.16%. However, this is BEFORE BF commission being deducted.....so ROI would be lower than 9.16%.

The above was checking ONLY 37 days racing with 955 races..........however, the STATS may be of interested to you.

Having glanced at other days rated race results ( not included in above STATS,........I do not believe that the ROI would be materially lower.....may well be higher !).

Your stats are extremely "impressive", but you never really know whether will in future achieve such a high return.......All i can say is that if you believe there is material "edges" in how you arrive at your selections, and your ROI indicates you may well have an edge etc, then YOU MUST START USING MONEY TO REAP BENEFITS OF YOUR TIME SPENT DEVELOPING YOUR "EDGE".

Gl with bets.

Throw caution to the wind, it's only money.
One must have a go. Nothing ventured...

These are my figures after the 5% commission is taken off

The only way you can "proof" a system is at the very last race.  Until then all you have is a small subsection, and without money down, just a history of other results.  You can make money over 1000 spins of roulette, doesn't mean the system is a long term winner.

Put your money down, otherwise what is the point?  Sit there an watch the racing for the hell of it?  :)
Depending of course how you are even determining the odds is a big thing too.  BF odds aren't constant, but you seem to be recording something, and the fairness of that is big too.  If you take SP or something, then all good because you can get a couple more percent by simply being dilligent in the odds you take.

Until you put your money down though, you do not have a profitable system.  Simple as that.  Dive in, and good management.

If your rating system is based on the flat I would advice starting soon as the flat season is in full swing but winds down in few months, try using autobetting software so that there is less chance of mistakes from human error and avoid difficult tracks and adverse weather conditions!

and the best of luck to you

good point bjt, but if you were making say many bets in a market at many markets then the manual option is very difficult to maintain so automation is the practical solution, If on the other hand you have the time and are placing a lower amount of bets then your manual method is the best solution[;)]