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Mr.Angry
23 Jul 11 11:57
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Date Joined: 05 Jan 11
| Topic/replies: 4,564 | Blogger: Mr.Angry's blog
Wow.  First major domestic football match of the season.  As much money on Purple to match as over here, and this is just a minor game.  If the Premier League is the same then things are looking 35% better.

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Replies: 113
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 23 Jul 11 12:04
What game are you talking about ?.
The Rangers one ?.
If so, don't think their fans would like to hear you refer to any match involving them as "minor".
By:
Mr.Angry
When: 23 Jul 11 12:08
Well, minor by standard volume levels.  A regular Premier League game would have around £2m matched by kick off.  Only £300K here so far.  So to have near equal liquidity over there for such a game bodes very well for the forthcoming PL season.
By:
Mr.Angry
When: 23 Jul 11 12:10
In fact, there is actually MORE available there than here.  First time I've ever seen that.
Seems that some big market makers have found a new home.
By:
Mr.Angry
When: 23 Jul 11 12:11
Such a pity that Betfair has come to this.  I was always 100% behind Betfair, often fighting it's corner on this forum and around the 'net.

It feels like losing an old friend.
By:
Rocket to the FACE
When: 23 Jul 11 12:11
Is that why Betfair have hammered me with NINE promotional pop ups in the last few days ?
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 23 Jul 11 12:12
Early days Mr Angry.
It might signify something, but one swallow doesn't make a summer.
I think the relatively major league games will definitely be up in some sort of volumes over there.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 23 Jul 11 12:13
Anybody dancing an Irish jig yet ?
By:
Mr.Angry
When: 23 Jul 11 12:16
Early days Mr Angry.
It might signify something, but one swallow doesn't make a summer.
I think the relatively major league games will definitely be up in some sort of volumes over there.


Agreed.  Will be interesting to see how it is in-play.  However, seeing as 95% of my betting happens on the major football matches (English Prem, Bundesliga, Spanish, Italian), I believe there may be enough liquidity for me.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 23 Jul 11 12:26
Guinness sales up with the extra spend available by reduced commission charges ?
By:
Mr.Angry
When: 23 Jul 11 12:28
And that's your final answer?
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 23 Jul 11 12:28
To what ?
By:
zipper
When: 23 Jul 11 12:31
Frog  .. work this one out 
Site A .... a punter is charged 40%  of their winnings 
Site B .... a punter is charged 2% of their  winnings
where  would big winners bet .....it aint rocket science ... unless you know different. look forward to your answer
By:
Mr.Angry
When: 23 Jul 11 12:33
To be fair to Betfair, I'm paying around 19% at the moment, so would expect something similar over there, in total.  But that's 100% less than 40%.
By:
Mr.Angry
When: 23 Jul 11 12:34
Game just KOd.  And in-play liquidity looks good.
Seems that a viable alternative has emerged, at last.
By:
Rs1
When: 23 Jul 11 12:34
aint as simple as that purple are god awful ...

2 japansese footy matches aren't  even actively managed in play for a start !

nothing changing anytime soon

almost as if the purple are scared of bet fair
By:
Rocket to the FACE
When: 23 Jul 11 12:35
Put it this way, it can't be bad news can it?
By:
Mr.Angry
When: 23 Jul 11 12:36
2 japansese footy matches aren't  even actively managed in play for a start !

I've never bet on Japanese football, so that makes zero difference to me.  SO long as the major games are in-play and liquid...
By:
Rs1
When: 23 Jul 11 12:36
not to mention nothing matched an most the markets aren't even up

247 000 quid matched here ... few k there


... i wish i could get away with paying 2 percent rather than how much i do
By:
Lori
When: 23 Jul 11 12:39
Japanese Football LaughLaughLaugh
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 23 Jul 11 12:39
Btw I don't mind if volumes on purple soar and BF is thus forced to revise the PC down or retract in full.
Who wouldn't from a purely selfish, short term view of things ?.
I'm more interested in debating about whether BF's PC commission decision is wrong in totality and/or whether purple's low flat charge one is really sustainable in the long run, or whether purple will be able to handle the take out by the big money grabbing bots any better than BF can.
These are the big picture things that really matter.
A short, or even medium term, pick up in purple volumes will not, in the end, decide the issue.
By:
Mr.Angry
When: 23 Jul 11 12:40
Now deduct my matched volumes here, and add to there.  Multiply by another couple of big football players.

Why Betfair have decided to do this I'll never know.  Allowing customers to be fleeced so as to get a cut, but alienating customers like myself?
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 23 Jul 11 12:41
Japanese football is a hell of a lot better than many of the " dodgy " European leagues.
By:
TheVis
When: 23 Jul 11 12:42
Mr Angry - are bets being matched in-running that you can see over there?  That's the crucial missing piece of the jigsaw if they are too truly compete.
By:
Rs1
When: 23 Jul 11 12:44
how can they be matched ... most the markets 1.5 , 3.5 next goal etc aren't even up!
By:
Mr.Angry
When: 23 Jul 11 12:45
Well, not as much being matched, but there is plenty to match.  A few gaps in the prices, but sometimes it's the opposite.  The real test will come when the PL starts.

The big leagues are as clean as one would reasonably expect.  PL, Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie A (hopefully from now).  Those leagues attract the most attention.  Who needs 40+markets in minor leagues?
By:
Mr.Angry
When: 23 Jul 11 12:45
Most of those other markets are derivatives of Match Odds, and that seems fine for this first match of the season.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 23 Jul 11 12:46
I would expect that BF have modelled any and all likely short to medium term volume/player movements over to purple and think it will have no discernible net profit effect on their bottom line.
In fact maybe they're even hoping that certain of the really rapacious bots go over there en masse, and will look gleefully as purple comes crashing down as a result ?.
Ever thought that BF might in fact be deploying some rally Machiavellian scheme to put purple out of business once and for ever ?.
I'm surprised that many of the conspiracy theorists on here haven't in fact already come up with that one.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 23 Jul 11 12:47
" --some really Machiavellian scheme---"
By:
TheVis
When: 23 Jul 11 12:47
They won't want any liquidity spread to thinly. Got to get the money over there first, then they can start with the extra markets....just as BF did before they got enough funds on board.
By:
winningthought
When: 23 Jul 11 12:49
FINE AS FROG HAIR, Replies: 3553

-----

More betfair lies
By:
Mr.Angry
When: 23 Jul 11 12:52
I would expect that BF have modelled any and all likely short to medium term volume/player movements over to purple and think it will have no discernible net profit effect on their bottom line.

Well, I once got a hamper from Betfair, so I guess I should be thankful.
By:
Lex
When: 23 Jul 11 12:57
Betdq are not afraid of Betfair. They are afraid of not being able to cope because they dont have/want to make any big investments to do so. If they did,they would have done it by now and curbed Betfairs growth.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 23 Jul 11 13:02
Yeah Lex may be right.
Now that would be a turn up wouldn't it ?
Btw winning thought can't say your reply actually makes sense ( here on this thread at least.)
By:
Mr.Angry
When: 23 Jul 11 13:05
FAFH - any idea why Betfair has, for years, allowed customers to be fleeced by court-siders, course-siders, and trap-bettors, and only now decided to take a cut?  Surely the better long-term approach would have been to have closed those loopholes to make the markets as fair as possible?  Perhaps then there would be no need to tax profits?
By:
Mr.Angry
When: 23 Jul 11 13:06
(whereas someone like myself -and various other members - who use the skills as taught by the Betfair trading team are now taxed off the site)?
By:
pxb
When: 23 Jul 11 13:07
Liquidity attracts volume, Volume attracts liquidity.

The iron rule of markets.
By:
Rocket to the FACE
When: 23 Jul 11 13:09
Really? [smiley:crazy]
By:
Coachbuster
When: 23 Jul 11 13:27
Liquidity isn't the answer ,it's the profits available to the players ...ergo if the profits aren't forthcoming on Purple like they would be on here then the interest will sadly die .QED

ipso facto
By:
viva el presidente!
When: 23 Jul 11 13:35
the question is, how are the quack going to get the losers on board in numbers?

an exchange composed primarily of big winners with a few small losers is logically impossible.
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