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General Betting
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19 Jul 11
12:17
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Date Joined:
10 Jan 02
Had a look at this. I normally back a few horses per race that I make value. Thought if I included horses I made true price or marginal value in races I bet in this would increase my commission generated to gross profit ratio. It seems to do the opposite as it increases the strike rate. The only legitimate option I can think of is to increase stakes on existing bets which will generally result in accepting worse overall odds. e.g. if my average dutch was working out along the lines of backing a 2.0 shot at 2.15 then increasing stakes might make it average out at backing a 2.0 shot at 2.1.
Obviously I could start betting in events I don't normally bet in but, if I don't have any edge, all that happens is I pay normal commission in those markets which saves me paying it in pc's. i.e. I end up paying betfair the same amount overall and make the same net profit. Effort without reward for anyone who's already generating 10%+ and on the "lower" 40% rate.
Maybe some of the "Liquidity to massively increase from tomorrow" fans can guide me as they seem to think that even traders are going to be churning away merrily?
Obviously I could start betting in events I don't normally bet in but, if I don't have any edge, all that happens is I pay normal commission in those markets which saves me paying it in pc's. i.e. I end up paying betfair the same amount overall and make the same net profit. Effort without reward for anyone who's already generating 10%+ and on the "lower" 40% rate.
Maybe some of the "Liquidity to massively increase from tomorrow" fans can guide me as they seem to think that even traders are going to be churning away merrily?
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Replies: 41
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Ok. At the moment maybe you bet when your system has a 5% plus edge. Why not bring in the animals that give you an edge between 2% and 5%. On these bets you will win enough to pay the commission on betfair but not enough to make an overall profit.
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frog, you obviously didn't read my post.
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And how would that help these traders that are going to massively boost liquidity?
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i think you could probably do something along these lines in for instance you were already paying 25-39% on your normal activity making it increase to 40% might be very acheivable and do you no harm while benefitting BF, however say in my sitauation where my normal activity means i pay 4.9% strecching that up to the 60% they now want is a tad impossible imo
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mst, in your case you've every reason to back anything that moves in other markets so that you get your commission generated to gross profit ratio up to 10% so you go onto the "lower" 40% rate. I daresay it's a tall order though if you've been betting a long time.
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PS frog, the heading isn't personal. No end of people have been making out this isn't a problem.
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The "Churn" approach is more about cross market arbing for a break even or small loss. It's still barely practicable though, you have to churn colossal volumes just to write off a very small amount of PC. Barely worth the bother.
EG - say you're on 3.5% comm, winning £1000 a week and paying 10% in "comm generated." You find some 100% arbs at 2, you're going to lose on them at a rate of 3.5% because of comm but it's worthwhile because you'll generate that amount of comm, plus the reduction in your winnings reduces your PC so that over all you end up slightly better off. Well you have to match just over £3500 on each side of them (so 7k total) to wipe out your PC bill, which will leave you better off by a mighty £24 pounds. That's 7k matched with all the attendant risks of mistakes, plus the time spent looking for the arb for a return of £24. Worth it? No. |
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dear mr eejit.
thank you for your request for advice. having consulted our list "people we would be willing to help under any circumstances whatsoever", you do not appear to be on it, and therefore we will not be able to be of assistance at this time. yours, the ferengi |
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only problem with that is how could i possibly guarantee breaking even or making a commision paying profit, i could either lose big time thus solving the pc problem but creating an even bigger one, or i could make significant profit and pay 65% of it anyway.
if i knew a way even long term i could make thousands of bets and break level but creating a lot of commision for betfair and bringing my % commision paid right up to negate the pc then i would be all over it, but i am not a genuis or have bots or knowlwedge on creating a bot that could do this without the prospect of it going pearshaped, i am not a big player , don't have 100,000's in my bank account to risk, iam just a one or two bet per market man for small stakes in -running, i have thought a lot about it , i don't see any options in my situation, i have been very lucky and been offered a job when i was worried i was unemployable, but it still doesn't stop me thinking of these strategies to help me continue on here , just can't see a way |
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At the 20% rate I think I am right in saying that if you win £100, you need to do this from wins of around £700, losses of £600. Cant be bothered working out the exact figure.
Betting on the slow pics, on average, every £100 of my profit will come from £300 of wins, £200 of losses. Even from that, trying to churn up to 20% generated is very difficult indeed although I dont have any need for a big bank. With a bigger bank I would be able to do it more often though. Even if everything goes right and PC is reduced, is it worth the time, effort and risk? Probably not. |
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I've succeded in churning to reduce the pc (20% rate) and increased my profits at the same time.
The increase in liquidity claim is b0ll0cks. I have increased my risk, which means looking for better prices (offering worse prices), which means decreased liquidity in the markets I operate in. It aint rocket science. |
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Thanks for the replies. We all seem to be in agreement that it's neither easy or worthwhile.
pxb, it sounds like your doing something along the lines of the reverse of what I first thought of in my opening post which, as you say, would lead to less liquidity. mst, thinking about it, given you must lifetime be be 250K+ up, getting your figure from 4.9% to 10% would be no mean feat but couldn't you get it up to just over 5% so your pc rate will go down to 50%? |
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viva, I didn't honestly expect any help. If there's a way I'm sure I'd eventually find it myself. This thread's more about calling a few bluffs.
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feck i think that is very possible i am on 4.98559137 atm ,losing as little as a 1k on here and arbing it somewhere else would probably be enough, only problem is if i tried it the bet i placed on here would almost certainly win and leave me in the sh1t having to pay 65%[smiley:crazy]
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Feck, the 480 people that are due for the super PC could work out how to churn. Over the years I have developed dozens of models that make a marginal profit on here but are not worth using after commission so I have stopped using them. Of course it depends if people can be bothered to do it. You say on other threads your UK form evaluator is basically automated now but you are as yet to use it on Jump Racing. Well I am so you could develop a low margin (enough to cover commission) system using your skills you have from the flat win market. Or you could run it on a database for UK place markers, USA racing, or UK dog racing or Australian Racing or all of them. It doesnt have to be very profitable. Just enough to cover commission.
Do this and you are putting liquidity into those markets and you get to keep all your profits from UK win flat racing. |
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Do the churning bets have to make the same slight profit every week?
I can see how a low strike rate, low margin betting system would help create commission. Though on a week by week basis would it just not end up losing most weeks, then highly profitable in others, leading to a huge PC when it is profitable, and no rebate when it isnt? On a year by year basis I can see how it could work, perhaps even on a monthly, but weekly? |
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I suppose it depends on the event volume you work on. There are several thousand racing markets alone that could potentially be done. I suppose people are also looking at it from a different angle. With a fresh account (or if people had known the charge from the start) it would have been much easier to sort out because there would be no need for it to be weekly.
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If you're deep in the PC mire, the order of results is irrelevant.
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mst instead of a single £1000 bet, you could place alot of £100 bets on events around evens.
The chances of you winning at a rate comparabe to your day job are very very low. This churn, regardless of whether or not your Betfair goes up or down, should put you over the 5%. By that I mean even if you win on here, your comm generated from these bets will be a high %, raising your overall %. 5 - 4.9855913 is 0.0144087. So 0.0144087% of £250,000 is around £36, so it shouldnt be hard to generate that. If my figures or theory are wrong please correct me somebody. |
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frog, I'm pretty sure I'd just end up back in the same position with those other markets you mention. I'd have to develop a system for football or some other sport that made a marginal profit but that's hardly the easy option churn-to-pay-pc'ers have been making out.
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feck, it sounds like you need to get yourself one of those trading bots.........
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We all seem to be in agreement that it's neither easy or worthwhile.
That was my initial reaction. But then I found I had roughly doubled my per day profitability, excluding cricket which I make money on regardless. The pc has shown me how to substantially increase my profitability. Heraclitus circa 500BC "All is flux" |
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I never said it was easy. But if you have the brains to make 250k plus at high margin I am sure you can develop a few marginal systems to get your rates down and increase your contribution to liquidity on here.
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There is a system in betting called Martingale, where you double your bet after a loss on an even money chance. It's failing is that you run into a bad sequence at some time, and reach the house or bookie's limit. I have read on the exchange games site of people employing it and getting unstuck by some horrible sequence. I asked one or two of my colleagues what they thought the average premium charge is; they thought 30%, 40% or 50%. It is actually infinity%.
The proof? Well, say I win £1000 in week one and pay £400 premium charge (or £200 the argument is the same). In week two I lose £1000 and pay £0 premium charge. I have paid £400 in PC with £0 profit. That is infinity. And if you average infinity with anything else you still get infinity. The point is that the sequence of winning and losing weeks of WWWWWLLLLL is just as likely as LLLLLWWWWW. With the latter you will pay 40% with the former you might pay 100,000% or more. Under the terms of the PC, it is ludicrous to place a single penny on Betfair, even if you have a massive advantage. |
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Your calculation is meaningless because it only consists of a two week period. Not only that but the figures you have chosen are unrepresentative of a betting pattern that would incur pc at 40%.
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^^^^^ he,s talking about churning the markets using martingal system with even money shots
wake up bucknut |
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Oh yeah, I see. I think. It makes even less sense if it is being suggested that a successful gambler would convert to using martingale to reduce/avoid pc.
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At the risk (I presume) of being called one again, what is a bucknut?
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if or should i say when it goes pear shaped and you have a winning streak on betUNfair.
then you would have to withdraw all ur tank and close the account. hopefully this winning run would not happen 4 a while is all you can do. this is better than just leaving now. bucknut = top guy who knows his stuff :>) |
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Well then you have a touch of the bucknuts about you to have correctly deduced that.
But if you think martingale has any merit in any situation at all then forget it. |
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a lot of this churn talk fails to take account of the principle of supply and demand, imo.
there are strategies that work - but there's also now far more money chasing them. my expectation is that anything effective that scales to the level where it will mitigate large sums will stop being effective as competition drives the margins down. worst affected will be higher rate payers still significantly above 2%, who will basically be in competition against people with an inherent advantage until they can churn their way to 2%. |
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This churning talk is a load of old baloney.
Firstly if you are paying PC already at 20% gross why on earth would you churn more than you would before? (THINK ABOUT IT) Secondly, as aye robot points out, unless you are turning over bucket loads it's almost pointless. Now then, 2 large PC payers on 2% could agree to churn with each other on the football asian hcap market against the match odds and save a few quid of PC but that isnt real turnover at all. I would churn if an opportunity presented itself, but since I'm definitely going to be betting less here, because the prices have gone up massively, less opportunities will present themselves, and those that do will be less appealling, because my basic commission rate will have increased because of the lack of activity. |
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Haven't had a manual bet this week but my horse racing bots have broken all previous records. Surely it's not the churners keeping the price at value for me longer?
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You goona tell us Bayes, or do we have to guess ?
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Becoming like a ghost town and purple catching up fast.
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In your dreams ( wet).
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Dunno, but it is a little bit of a coincidence that my horse racing stuff strikes gold the week of PC2. I was obviously hoping for a small losing week.
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Sod's law maybe ?
Don't be modest Bayes ? You've sussed out how to accept and get on with matters ? I've never really heard a serious, feel sorry for me type whinge out of you on here. |
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Bayes.
Dunno, but it is a little bit of a coincidence that my horse racing stuff strikes gold the week of PC2. I was obviously hoping for a small losing week.  |