Is anyone actually ahead on here?

Historically? Down.

Since I started trying to trade simply on tennis? Up, but it's pocket money. I get enough to buy a couple crates of beer, have a nice meal with friends and a new video game at the end of the month. I'm not brave enough to take the plunge with bigger figures, not yet anyway.

Plenty of people here are making 5 and 6 figures a year though.

some make 4 figures a day

Only one winner allowed here now.

I'm perpetually hovering around break-even or a small profit. Not being able to break out of that stalemate situation is soul destroying. It makes you feel BF are the only winners. I reckon a lot of those with a small profit are effectively paying the same amount in commission as their meagre profits.

problem with me is whenever I go on a good run and increase my bank up to 3 or 4 grand, instead of building from there, my bets gets bigger and losses get bigger then it's all gone in a weekend and i'm left scratching my head.

There is no reason to assume that what you are doing with small stakes can be successfully scaled up so if you've tried and failed I would suggest sticking to the stakes that you succeed with.

when u get to 4k withdraw some money 1k maybe keep the same stakes and same plan how u got there in the first place then when u get to 4k again  take out some more

yes sounds good in theory but greed always gets me in the end

well then u have a problem surely u can change it

Played in 18 races today, and made £1.41. This is typical of what I was saying (16 Jul 18:28).

Aueng, wookys problem is similar to thousands of others on here. It happens us all..

Everyone wins on the forum

Which must really be a serious liquidity draining problem for BF eh Zealot ?

I am about £100k up since i started in 2006. You have to do it professionally. I have 2 systems, one with a £20k bank and one with a £10k bank, and I bet to 0.5% of the bank. In each case I know that previous losing runs have never gone below 40-50% of the bank before recovering, and that the recovery when it comes is usually quite quick, so you have to have the nerve to keep going, doing EXACTLY the same thing day in day out until you reach the bottom of the trough and start to come back up. You have to keep stats meticulously, so you know what your overall strike rate/average win price is over a long period of time. In my case its about 26% strike rate at average price of about 7/2, enough to make decent profits. In the flat season I am backing in 30-40 races per day, so my betfair commission % is down to 2.80 which helps.

Good advice steve.
Knowing or having a good estimate of potential max capital drawdowns is an essential of any good money mgt system for gambling.

CORRECT frog ----
trying to double your bank in a year is a good starting point .

betting 40 races a day, tryed that doesnt work for me, i believe you dont really have an edge if you bet so many races. sometimes more is less and less is more, perfect maxim for this hobbie/business. humble IMO

good post steved

After about 2 years one starts to make money in my experience
But they don't like winners here any more so you should look across to the emerald isle when you get good.

Again....good post steve but, just wondering what you were doing,
between 2004 and 2006!

Also, you have been pretty quiet, on here!

I agree with the poster above  - it often takes a year or two to settle - I manage to take money out nearly every day, but you can get over confident.Watch out for greed taking over.
I had an unbelievable run from the 22nd june not one losing bet - then saturday morning the usual for me on japanese and early scottish league going strong as usual couple of hundred up and looking forward to a good day and then ..............bang  5 losing bets !!!!!!!!!!!!!   ended up chasing (not again)  and manchester utd ended up by saving me at 2 am  or near that
result on days gambling
16 pounds up  - ha ha needless to say I did not draw any money out to my bank account that day /morning   - 15 hours for 16 pounds the laugh was on me that day

Good Post Steve.

Thankyoumugs, Steve's edge may be in identifying market patterns rather than evaluating form, so he could do 30+ bets a day without needing to know too much about the runners.

Thanks for your comments people, to answer a few questions - I did the horses a bit in the 80's and lost 2K before realising you couldn't make money paying betting tax and taking bookies prices. I packed it in until 2005 when I started researching and backing again. For the first year or so I lost overall about 2K again, then I discovered some form ratings that appeared interesting, and wrote a computer program to number crunch the ratings ( plus results from the Racing Post ), which eventually told me which type of race was most profitable backing the top-rated horse. I started at £10 per selection, it took me about 2 years to get up to £100 which is where I am now.

One of my systems is for flat/turf handicaps only, the other works across all codes but is by far most profitable on flat/turf, so in summer there are far more selections.

I don't get involved in form at all, I get the ratings, feed them into the software and it gives me a list of selections, then I simply back them all. In May i made 12K, June was break even, this month I am 9K up, though I was 5K down by the 14th, since then the results have turned around amazingly. You can get bad months and lose up to 4K, but you have to be patient and keep going which can be hard when every day is a losing one.

As to being quiet on the forum, I have no 4 kids and no time to spare!

Steve lol

let's see...checking the stats,this year I have a profit of 656%. But that's nothing... my pal Mr. Kelly, the perfect gambler, has racked up a staggering 14,871.95% profit. My other friend, Longshot Larry has a modest 65% gain. So, yes, there is profit to be made. I wrote a bit about gambling topics in my betfair blog for anyone interested.

I am about £100k up since i started in 2006. You have to do it professionally. I have 2 systems, one with a £20k bank and one with a £10k bank, and I bet to 0.5% of the bank. In each case I know that previous losing runs have never gone below 40-50%

...........................................

this is intersting in so far what is going to happen if you get to 250k?  You say you have lost up to 40-50% on losing runs.

If you had had a winning run and paid nearly 40% extra in premium charges over that period, your bank would be nearly 60% of what it would have been, which just shows how devastating the super premium charge can be if following that good run you then lost 40-50% of your bank

CLYDEBANK, why do you assume he will be paying PC if and when he reaches 250 k ?
  Nothing in what he has said implies he will.

I agree though that PC can be devastating for punters/position takers.

a 26% strike rate at 7/2 will get you in PC territory Eddie which is what he claims.  26%/22% =1.18 that's new pc territory

You are right. I'm sorry, but had only seen what you did copy and paste.
  Have now looked at all he has posted and judging by his current numbers he should allready pay PC under the 20 % rules as his total charges comes up at 14 % only.
  He may have a buffer from earlier losses though.

Should have said commission generated and not total charges, but it's almost the same thing.

Why would he be worried about the PC? He's still winning isn't he?

He should be worried because if he keeps up in the same matter he will soon have to pay another 6 % of his profit in PC and when and if he reaches 250 k net profits he will have to pay another 26 % of his profit in PC2.

That is imo worrying, but even worse is that, as CLYDEBANK said, he could actually wipe out his entire bank if during a bad run having paid plenty in PC2 on the way.

jimmy69     28 Jul 11 11:53 
Why would he be worried about the PC? He's still winning isn't he?


are you serious Jimmy?

I've never been asked to pay the PC. I havent looked into it as i understood from what I read a while back that it only really applied to traders who make constant profits, not backers like me, who lose a lot but win slightly more than they lose. E.g. this month I have staked £100k, lost £67k, won £75k.

If I'm in danger of paying it I would have to consider using another exchange or switching to bookies paying SP+ or best price guaranteed.

Just checked my statement on the premium charge portal and my commission paid stands at 31.9% of gross profits.

You'll be safe then until you reach 250 k net profit.

Unless of course if Befair lower the threshold for PC2.

I presume that net profit is 250k GBP.

If that is the case I wont reach PC2 till I win 374k AU. [smiley:crazy]

That's atm.

I'd make it odds on that the figure comes down to 100K or lower in time.

With that in mind I'd move to the purple place now, stevedaggett.
Given your modus operandi would easily translate to there.