What do people think will change liquiditywise towards/as from the 18th?

Horse racing markets wil lsuffer a drop IMO

How will we know?

Just curious to know people`s opinions...i know no one can know for sure...

What is happening from 18th??

Is it not the day all the high rollers are quitting Betfair?

PC2

What do people think will change liquiditywise towards/as from the 18th?

Nothing.

i would imagine most people will be using their buffers up first.

What buffers Dstyle. I know they were doing something stupid regarding sequences but can't imagine too many will have much of a buffer (I'm 40.4%).

ballabriggs

What is happening from 18th??

A few people are being charged more commission from their gross profit.

As far as I'm aware they make your comm generated + pc up to your relevant charging band. So you pay full whack from day 1. I'll be most pleased to be corrected

catfleppo - it's when winners are no longer welcome at Betfair.

I am pleased to correct you, curly ;)  They set you off as if you've been paying pc all along so everyone will start off above 40%.

thats if they stay here

That's news to me, bilbo, as far as I understand I'm still allowed to carry on playing.

Not for long cat.

Why, all that's changing is that I will be expected to pay at least 40% of my profit in commission. No one has told me I'm not welcome, quite the contrary in fact.

IR on the GGs already dying a death.

The skimbot gets the creams.

Anything sub 2.0 is the majority realm of track players & said bot.

IMO, that bot is happy to take on the track players, as the over-round, coupled with commission/PC will 1.01 defeat each in the L/R.

Only then will we see a level playing field for I/R pics [i.e. ATR vs. SIS vs. "live", etc].

Cos a new batch of mug layers will then be required [nap]

I am pleased to correct you, curly ;)  They set you off as if you've been paying pc all along so everyone will start off above 40%.

hmmm - I still don't see it
If your comm gen is say 15% and you had been paying pc all along, you would be on 40% exactly, no more.
My head hurts.

I don't think we will see a difference at all on day 1.  The big market makers won't be affected - BF will have seen to that via where the new PC is pitched.

The other players don't really have anywhere else to go as yet if they use any sort of in-running strategy.

The pure gamblers will probably be the ones that are most likely to leave on day 1 and those are the people BF should be trying to keep

Curly, they take account of your losing weeks which, because there is no rebate, cause 40% to be higher in practice.

Cheers cat, I guess we'll all be a bit wiser in a couple of weeks

answer to original question

480 will claim to leave and wont

other forumites in no danger of paying will threaten to leave and wont

so in short, nothing doing

My thoughts for what they're worth:

1) Liquidity on the nags pre off will improve - reasons: the big players will use this sport (with most coverage all year round) to try and generate more break even / slight win /loss strategies with the aim of increasing their commission payments to Betfair leading to a reduced cost to themselves.

2) Liquidity on Purple will increase on same market - reasons: the big players will seed both sites for same selections.  A match over at purple is a bonus, and worth doing for the very little extra work!

What happens after this I believe will be down to whether purple decide to increase their marketing and take advantage of their new seeding.

Other sports I am not so sure - I expect football, once seasons start again will suffer here as I expect the big players will find it easier to be matched at elsewhere i.e., purple / asian bookies / pinn acle (not my main sports so will be interesting to see what happens)?

BF already working hard to pump their own liquidity into the markets.

Hard to say really. I think the effect will be pretty minor in the beginning. Maybe not many, but a few of the 480 will indeed leave I'm sure, some pure gamblers to begin with (yes, it's perfectly possible to be hit by at least 40% without doing anything fishy at all). Many more will take part of their betting elsewhere. This includes people who not yet will pay the super-pc, but who might reach 250k within a couple of years. They might want to put off that day for as long as possible (and hope that Betfair don't lower the bar before they get there). They could for example lay some very popular bets on some other exchange instead. Stuff like England to win the World Cup. Some small markets might never get priced up, as some super-pc player who previously has done it no longer can be bothered now that his expected profit for doing so suddenly is cut in half. Maybe Betfair will fill that void, maybe someone else, who knows. On the other hand some people might try to avoid or reduce the super pc by coming up with some very marginal strategies where they don't expect to make much at all after Betfair have taken their commission.

I'm sure there we will be some that move address,change ip number in the process, change banks /card , and open a brand new account - even using their wife's name .

They will have nothing to lose if they've already been 'kicked off'

What would your total charges be - if you made a book for every race ?

The reason I ask is - for the first 7 years on here I was a backer turning over 10 - 30k a week - my life time charges were as high as 38.88 . These days almost exclusively a layer and hurtling towards 20.00 - how does anybody stay above 40.00 ?

40 what?

It's easily done I can assure you...

why would you deliberately want to stay above 40 just to avoid the charge though ?

Coachbuster
11 Jul 11 22:02 Joined: 08 Apr 06 | Topic/replies: 13,617 | Blogger: Coachbuster's blog
I'm sure there we will be some that move address,change ip number in the process, change banks /card , and open a brand new account - even using their wife's name .

They will have nothing to lose if they've already been 'kicked off'

Never heard so much pish in my life.

To suggest that any of these 480 reprobates is capable of keeping, let alone getting a woman, is beyond belief.

Just traded a couple of soccer markets, both here and there.

Volume over there was perhaps 5% of here. Bots keeping prices inline.

I did manage to trade a profit in both markets there, but slow process.

There is a cricket match today where no market here, but one over there. Be interesting to see how it goes.

What's the match pxb?

scotland/ireland cricket

It's a classic prisoners dillemma. What incentive does any particular trader have to not make money for a day? They migh even make more money since others competing for the same edge may not be active due to the strike. If I was a trader (I'm a 2 quid joker at best) I'd be extremely pleased about the strike on the 18th and turn all my bots up to 11!

Surely on the 18th it will suddenly get a lot more easy to win on here. After all, Betfair said that they are bringing in the new PC to help out the poor little guys who are losing too fast to the big hitters.

I disagree Mr. Magoo.

BF have broken the edges of each of the 480 imo, and will replicate those strategies
from July 18th, using house monies.

The losers will still lose. It is who they lost to that will change.

Instead of the 72% of deposits that Yu states that BF eventually win from total funds
lodged to here, they are aiming for the full 100%...

I'm quite looking forward to taking on the BF traders provided they play fair.

steeringjo , which stategies do you think BF will attack ? do you mean trading edges ?

Surely on the 18th it will suddenly get a lot more easy to win on here. After all, Betfair said that they are bringing in the new PC to help out the poor little guys who are losing too fast to the big hitters.

you're all still going to lose at the same rate, just betfair will end up with all the money..and in fact, you may lose at a faster rate, as the speads and liquidity on some sports drop

im sure betfair doen't want to seed there markets at 101% when they can do it 103%

i'm pretty sure that markets will decrease,i can't see loads of empty screens hanging around for ever ...it's quite bad already

Instead of the 72% of deposits that Yu states that BF eventually win from total funds
lodged to here, they are aiming for the full 100%...

The way I read it was that they currently have 72% of their punters' gambling spend. ie. those who bet on here bet 28% of their gambling money elsewhere. I would be amazed if the winners on here were only taking just over a quarter of the losers' money.

CB,

They will attack each & every edge that they have broken.

IMO, this would've happened already, but it took the lab rats time
to bust some of the more techie ones.

Cracking the Betfairian would used the X-M bot as his own edge was
the start of the rot.

The only real credible ones that will remain will be arb bots between here & ZE_DAQ et al; and ratings gurus such as the Wizard of Oz...

Bayes,

Fair point.

It was how I read Yu's comment though - and what I believe that he
meant.

Can anyone else comment as to their thoughts on what he meant?

"TAR" as Warrack would say

The, horse racing pre race at least, markets have changed quite markedly in the last 10 days or so. In 2006 they changed meaning i could no longer operate as i did previously and now after all this time they appear to have gone as they were, with less liquidity though!

Bayes is correct imo.

steering,  what sort of time frame do you expect ?  are you saying that there will be no definable edge on any sporting market in the future ? , How about strategies...i'm sure there will be a few edges which exist within the boundaries of a  100 % book as they do already

CB,

Of course edges wil exist in future.

As Buzzer has alluded to though, the nature of such mkts change, hence edges may "die".

The 480 may be running edges that simply aren't profitable at 60% PC.

This doesn't affect the house from doing so, using a zero-cost account...

Feck - fair comment, ty.

OK steering, fair enough ...i was just wondering what your thoughts were on the general side of things ...sure some profitable punters won't find an edge profitable enough .

I just couldn't see where BF could close off all angles as Bookies run to an 80 % or so book ,or they would have to be mad to risk it