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colonel kurtz
10 Jul 11 12:23
Joined:
Date Joined: 10 Feb 02
| Topic/replies: 322 | Blogger: colonel kurtz's blog
Was wondering if anyone has had dealings with this site and could supply some kind of feedback, good or bad,before i commit funds.Any input much appreciated,thanks.
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Report The Magician (100) July 10, 2011 3:09 PM BST
I have met the guy that started it and runs it. nice enough chap, credible etc etc.

assume client cash is ring fenced.. but check.. they have the age old problem of not much liquidity, but I guess you need to start somewhere.
Report colonel kurtz July 10, 2011 7:07 PM BST
Thanks for the reply Magician.Regarding liquidity, there seems to be a lot of money (predominatly on the lay side) in the football matches that they do cover....currently £65,000 to lay on bolivia in tonights game against colombia....seeded i presume? Looks like an interesting alternative though for pre race markets.
Report turtleshead July 10, 2011 7:30 PM BST
Some pretty serious liquidty there, pretty tight spreads also Shocked
Report brendanuk1 July 10, 2011 7:40 PM BST
more over there than there is here!
Report dashero July 10, 2011 7:44 PM BST
Seems too good to be true on some of the markets over there[:p]
Report turtleshead July 10, 2011 7:47 PM BST
Lots of money to be laid at a fraction above market price - if you have an opinion on something not happening, that is defo the place to go!
Report colonel kurtz July 10, 2011 7:57 PM BST
Dashero... agree about the comment too good to be true....there are very large amounts on the lay side on nearly all the markets that ive looked at including horse racing pre the off ..... not so impressive on the back but still very good liquidity for a site that id never heard of until a couple of days ago...plenty of scope for early plays in markets , but ive got no idea what in running is like .
Report colonel kurtz July 10, 2011 7:58 PM BST
Just to add it seems like a flat rate commision of 5%
Report turtleshead July 10, 2011 8:02 PM BST
Some markets that arent on here also, like sky takeover to go ahead, brooks to resign, etc etc...
Report greedkillsmybankagain July 10, 2011 9:30 PM BST
where has all the liquid on this site come from
Report greedkillsmybankagain July 10, 2011 9:31 PM BST
only looked at the colombian match
Report Coachbuster July 10, 2011 9:48 PM BST
quite a fair bit trading on the Duck tonight  Shocked
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR July 10, 2011 9:50 PM BST
From BF shrewdies of course ?.
The gold rush has started ?.
Don't all rush to the one side of the ship at once though please.
Report Wicked Whisper July 10, 2011 9:54 PM BST
Damn this Smarch weather!
Report Super Hans July 10, 2011 10:12 PM BST
I assume the figure in the lay side is what you can win?

Not what you can get on.
Report ocean0201 July 10, 2011 10:17 PM BST
interesting.. £800 available at 3.3 on the fav at ayr 2 pm tomorrow.. here £16 available
Report turtleshead July 10, 2011 10:48 PM BST
Shocked
Report catfleppo July 10, 2011 10:50 PM BST
Has anyone taken a bet to see if its really there?
Report Martinch July 11, 2011 8:57 AM BST
I email them back in March... they said this:

"Our lay side shows a layer's liability, not the backers stake as is
the case on Betfair and ...."

Also said they have market-makers.

I was impressed by available volume too (and still am, even given differences in what it represents)

if you google 's markets' (one word) 'blog' you'll find their blog link, which actually talks about a meeting today "Meet and greet with S markets team for professional traders"
Report Feck N. Eejit July 11, 2011 10:38 AM BST
Smarkets currently charges a standard flat commission of 5% of your net winnings per market.

Another clueless clone. If betfair's big liquidity providers mirrored every bet they had matched on betfair they'd pay more over there, even after the 18th July.
Report vic July 11, 2011 10:42 AM BST
Their API is not ready yet though
Report iz77778 July 11, 2011 10:44 AM BST
If betfair's big liquidity providers mirrored every bet they had matched on betfair they'd pay more over there, even after the 18th July.

how so feck?
Report Feck N. Eejit July 11, 2011 10:58 AM BST
iz, on 2% their normal commission on profit would have to be less than 16% for them to pay less than 40% of their profit on 5%.
Report El Bandido July 11, 2011 11:04 AM BST
Feck, I thought the same, but reading their blog it looks like they're planning some kind of points system with commission between 1% and 4%.

Still, I don't see anything fundamentally different with the interface. No dark pools/iceberg orders or auction system etc.
Report vic July 11, 2011 11:09 AM BST
If they get their API up and running they could be the dark horse that beats the field !!
Report catfleppo July 11, 2011 11:18 AM BST
Then they will be able to copy the pc too Devil
Report Feck N. Eejit July 11, 2011 11:31 AM BST
Just took a look El Bandido. Makes them look all the more clueless as many traders will end up on 1%. Can't see their million dollar funding lasting long if that's all they're taking, especially if they're seeding.
Report Rs1 July 11, 2011 11:49 AM BST
wheres the amounts that have been matched ?

i cant see it
Report El Bandido July 11, 2011 11:57 AM BST
Feck, you're right, they are clueless. Unfortunately.
Report Get On MASSIVE July 11, 2011 12:16 PM BST
Not clueless at all, there is a huge gap in the market for a pure exchange.

Betfair are killing off p2p. They want to suffocate the winners and bet into their own markets with bookie like margins. The exchange concept has been born and Betfair won't kill it off, if they abuse their position then someone will take there place sooner or later. It might not be next week or next year but Betfair in the future will have lost all ties to it's original concept and some other company will have took it's place.

Betfair in the future will still probably exist and will be the market leader in virtual racing and deal or no deal but it will lose it's exchange business at some point. There model for p2p exchange betting is unsustainable. Do you really think in 20 years time people will be paying up to 60%?
Report catfleppo July 11, 2011 12:45 PM BST
There is throughout these debates a great big fat assumption that if another company took this amount of business they wouldn't do the same thing as betfair.
Report Feck N. Eejit July 11, 2011 12:46 PM BST
Anyone who thinks an exchange can thrive charging traders and cheats 1% is clueless.
Report Ghetto Joe July 11, 2011 12:56 PM BST
But would they be as greedy as 60% catflappo? And if they were able to do it without initially charging they'd be nothing to stop them facing the same threat when they did start charging.
Report Get On MASSIVE July 11, 2011 12:58 PM BST
If Betfair's empire crumbles around them the next exchange may learn the lesson of the mistakes of Betfair. Betfair after all built up a near billion Pound business as a pure exchange charging between 2%-5%.

The 1% commission payers would never be people with near perfect strike rates.
Report Feck N. Eejit July 11, 2011 1:05 PM BST
Going by the wording in their blog all a trader would need to do to get on 1% was back both contestants in an A v B contest for 50K each.
Report weatherman2004 July 11, 2011 1:07 PM BST
I can see a model which would easily work at 1%.

Some people just lack vision.
Report Feck N. Eejit July 11, 2011 1:10 PM BST
So can I but it's not one where most of the bandwidth, customer service and money goes to traders and cheats.
Report weatherman2004 July 11, 2011 1:15 PM BST
There is an inherent flaw in an argument which defends an exchange operator but condemns "traders and cheats".
Report Rs1 July 11, 2011 1:15 PM BST
how come there prices exactly mirror betfairs .... thats odd
Report The Magician (101) July 11, 2011 1:18 PM BST
EVERYONEs prices mirror betfairs.

****s
Smarkets
Ladbrokes
HIlls
Bet365

why?????

and how can you profit from it?
Report Get On MASSIVE July 11, 2011 1:19 PM BST
Why is it odd?
Report Rs1 July 11, 2011 1:21 PM BST
yes they all mirror ... but not as precisely as smarkets on all the different markets with the same spreads!

and secondly i find it weird they dont show the amount matched ... thats hiding it on purpose
Report Rs1 July 11, 2011 1:24 PM BST
check the argy match ... see betdquack  an see smarkets ....
Report The Magician (101) July 11, 2011 1:32 PM BST
to be honest I would prefer there to be two exchanges in mixed supremecy....  some 60/40 split not the current 90/10 or less split we have in many areas...

but can we really expect that to occur shortly.... or at all....

http://eu.techcrunch.com/2011/05/13/smarkets-raises-a-1-million-funding-round-led-by-passion-capital/
Report The Magician (101) July 11, 2011 1:34 PM BST
some of my thread did not post?

article says expect to match 10 million between April and June

BF will match 8 billion in same period.

even halving BF figure and assume SM does not need to be halved...

that is .25% market share at best.....

a mountain to climb.....
Report Feck N. Eejit July 11, 2011 1:49 PM BST
There is an inherent flaw in an argument which defends an exchange operator but condemns "traders and cheats".

The reverse view is mainly held by traders and cheats.
Report dlarssonf July 11, 2011 2:19 PM BST
Feck do you not think you have hi-jacked enough threads with your visions for a "feck" friendly exchange... every thread bleating the same tunnel vision agenda.
Report funkymonkey July 11, 2011 2:28 PM BST
Looking at the commission structure proposal on the blog, it seems just about anyone will be on a max 3% deal and most 2.5% or less, meaning more incentive for the purple people to keep their current rates to those levels too which is really healthy news.

BF is no longer an option for me in 90% of the markets I play anyway but I would imagine a lot of people drifting over to these two places over the coming weeks and months.
Report ballabriggs July 11, 2011 2:29 PM BST
I like BET365, WILLIAM HILLS, and LADBROKES.  And BETFAIR.

Who is SMARKETS?
Report catfleppo July 11, 2011 2:40 PM BST
Ghetto Joe
Date Joined:     24 Jan 05
But would they be as greedy as 60% catflappo? And if they were able to do it without initially charging they'd be nothing to stop them facing the same threat when they did start charging.


Perhaps they will be more 'greedy'.  I doubt we'll ever find out but why would any business not follow suit? The pc is a fudge but it is an obvious and necessary one.

Imo, if betfair are to be knocked of their perch it will not be by someone copying them and offering a better deal to a handful of disgruntled users.  What's needed is the next phase of innovation either technically or conceptually and maybe that will come blessed with a perfect commission structure from day 1.  Doubt that too, I expect it will be subject to change...
Report weatherman2004 July 11, 2011 2:57 PM BST
The reverse view is mainly held by traders and cheats.

You miss the point. Those you defend, and those you condemn are not distinct groups. You're holding 2 diverse opinions on the same people.
Report mcfc1981 July 11, 2011 3:07 PM BST
does anyone have the figures of what profit betfair made year on year since the start???
Report Feck N. Eejit July 11, 2011 3:59 PM BST
The pc is a fudge but it is an obvious and necessary one.

Don't agree with that catfloppo. The way forward is to remove the players who make the pc necessary.
Report Feck N. Eejit July 11, 2011 4:01 PM BST
Where do I defend betfair weatherman.
Report catfleppo July 11, 2011 4:08 PM BST
Yes we do Feck, I don't think betfair should remove anyone
Report Feck N. Eejit July 11, 2011 4:09 PM BST
NO PRISONERS catfloppo.
Report The Magician (101) July 11, 2011 4:16 PM BST

Feck N. Eejit

Don't agree with that catfloppo. The way forward is to remove the players who make the pc necessary


you can self exclude yourself feck  :o)
Report Feck N. Eejit July 11, 2011 5:40 PM BST
I most likely will magician.
Report iz77778 July 12, 2011 6:34 AM BST
iz, on 2% their normal commission on profit would have to be less than 16% for them to pay less than 40% of their profit on 5%.

feck could you work out this scenario for me.

2 customers; 1 on pc2 40% using b/fair; 2nd at smarkets on 5%

both make a thousand quid in a week; what is their net profit?
Report catfleppo July 12, 2011 9:09 AM BST
I think you need to provide more detail :)
Report kingmax July 12, 2011 1:21 PM BST
it is strange that all mirror betfair.. someone said so so the other firms.. no they dont not like this
Report Coachbuster July 12, 2011 7:49 PM BST
that 60% will only ever apply to a few on here , hardly anyone will ever get near 2,500,  never mind 250,000  .
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR July 12, 2011 8:19 PM BST
Hyper inflation coach ?
Everybody seems to be talking about it these days in the financuial world.
You had better get more than one wheelbarrow then ?
Report Coachbuster July 12, 2011 8:40 PM BST
I've invested in precious metals . A spare room full of canned beer .
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR July 12, 2011 8:52 PM BST
And you can drink the beer and still have the metal,
A doubly whammy investment. Nice.
Report Coachbuster July 12, 2011 8:54 PM BST
What happens to everything else when there's hyper inflation FAFH ?  do houses become worthless too ?  I'm not too clued up on finance ...sounds i should read up Shocked
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR July 12, 2011 9:04 PM BST
I've been trying to get the sage of the finance forum, aka Menelaus, to spell all that out for me too. More pointedly how best to protect against it.
But without success.
I'm not an economic theoretician, and so I will leave it to others more qualified than me to answer your question, if this is the right forum to do so on.
I would certainly be interested to learn and know more on this oft mentioned armageddon.
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