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20 Jun 11
13:04
Joined:
Date Joined:
27 May 11
Laying 0-0 imo is profitable in the long term if you have the patience to wait until the match is in-play and the odds have dropped to give yourself better value, here I have provided info for next season and for leagues that are still active, for your interest.
The following 6 leagues are the 6 highest Goal scoring Leagues in Europe in order of goals per game, they show the % of games that ended 0-0, a high scoring league gives is a good place to thinking about laying 0-0 games, below gives the percentages of exactly how many 0-0 games there were in each 6 top scoring leagues leagues (Norway is still active)
__________________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________________
Holland 1 (Top Divison) - (3.23 goals per game)
Score...Matches....%
1 - 1....32.... 10.46%
2 - 1....27....8.82%
2 - 0....22....7.19%
1 - 0....21....6.86%
2 - 2....20....6.54%
3 - 1....19....6.21%
3 - 0....19....6.21%
0-0....18....5.88%
So 18 games from 306 ended 0-0
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Holland 2(2nd Divison) - (3.21 goals per match)
Score...Matches....%
1 - 1....28....9.15%
3 - 1....25....8.17%
2 - 2....23....7.52%
1 - 2....23....7.52%
2 - 1....23....7.52%
1 - 0....21....6.86%
0-0....21....6.86%
21 games from 306 ended 0-0
__________________________________________________________
Norway (still active) - (3 goals per match on average)
Score...Matches....%
2 - 0....14....15.05%
1 - 1....10....10.75%
0 - 1....9....9.68%
1 - 0....9....9.68%
2 - 1....6....6.45%
3 - 1....5....5.38%
2 - 2....4....4.3%
0 - 2....4....4.3%
1 - 2....3....3.23%
5 - 1....2....2.15%
5 - 0....2....2.15%
2 - 4....2....2.15%
1 - 4....2....2.15%
3 - 3....2....2.15%
2 - 3....2....2.15%
1 - 3....2....2.15%
4 - 2....2....2.15%
3 - 2....2....2.15%
4 - 0....2....2.15%
3 - 0....2....2.15%
0 - 0....2....2.15%
2 games from 93 - so far
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Swiss League - (2.98 goals per game)
Score....Matches....%
1 - 1....25....13.89%
2 - 2....15....8.33%
1 - 2....15....8.33%
1 - 0....14....7.78%
2 - 0....13....7.22%
3 - 1....11....6.11%
2 - 1....11....6.11%
0 - 1....10....5.56%
0 - 0....8.... 4.44%
8 games from 180 ended 0-0
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Germany Bundesliga 1 - (2.92 Goals per game)
Score....Matches....%
1 - 1....34....11.11%
2 - 1....30....9.8%
0 - 1....30....9.8%
2 - 0....25....8.17%
1 - 3....21....6.86%
1 - 0....21....6.86%
1 - 2....19....6.21%
3 - 0....18....5.88%
0 - 0....14....4.58%
14 from 306 games ended 0-0
____________________________________________________________
English Premier League - (2.8 Goals per game)
Score....Matches....%
1 - 1....52....13.68%
2 - 1....40....10.53%
1 - 0....40....10.53%
2 - 0....30....7.89%
2 - 2....27....7.11%
0 - 0....25....6.58%
25 from 380 games ended 0-0
_________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________
Below shows the percentages of games that finished 0-0 last season (Norway still active) games in bold are the 6 highest scoring leagues in Europe)
0-0 games %'s
Norway = 2.15% (League still active)
Switzerland =4.44%
Germany 1 = 4.58%
Scotland - 5.7%
England League 1 = 5.8%
Holland 1 = 5.88%
England Prem - 6.58%
Holland 2 - 6.86%
Spain 2 - 6.93%
Belgium - 7.08
Spain 1 - 7.11%
Germany 2 - 7.19%
Austria - 7.22%
English Championship - 7.25
Denmark - 7.58%
England League 2 - 8.7%
Greece - 8.75%
Italy - 8.95%
Ireland Serie A - 8.99%
Turkey - 9.8%
Portugal 1 - 10%
Italy Serie B - 10.39%
Poland - 10.42%
France Ligue 2 - 11.05%
France Ligue 1 - 11.85%
Conclusion - Laying 0-0 in the high scoring leagues are indeed worth looking into given there 0-0 % over the course of the 2010/2011 season, ALSO, it clearly shows that Scotland (13 from 228 games),the English League 1 (32 from 552 games ended 0-0) as well as Spain's Second tier (32 from 462) are all attacking leagues, laying 0-0 should be considered. Avoid France clearly.
Leagues Still Active - 0-0 games
Brazil = 2.04 (1 game from 49)
Norway = 2.15% (2 games from 93)
Japan = 7.29% (7 games from 96)
Argentina - 9.14% (17 from 190)
South Korea - 10.71% (12 from 112)
Sweden - 10.75% - (10 from 93)
Conclusion - I don't personally don't trust Brazilian Football, but the stats do speak from themselves.
The following 6 leagues are the 6 highest Goal scoring Leagues in Europe in order of goals per game, they show the % of games that ended 0-0, a high scoring league gives is a good place to thinking about laying 0-0 games, below gives the percentages of exactly how many 0-0 games there were in each 6 top scoring leagues leagues (Norway is still active)
__________________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________________
Holland 1 (Top Divison) - (3.23 goals per game)
Score...Matches....%
1 - 1....32.... 10.46%
2 - 1....27....8.82%
2 - 0....22....7.19%
1 - 0....21....6.86%
2 - 2....20....6.54%
3 - 1....19....6.21%
3 - 0....19....6.21%
0-0....18....5.88%
So 18 games from 306 ended 0-0
_________________________________________________________
Holland 2(2nd Divison) - (3.21 goals per match)
Score...Matches....%
1 - 1....28....9.15%
3 - 1....25....8.17%
2 - 2....23....7.52%
1 - 2....23....7.52%
2 - 1....23....7.52%
1 - 0....21....6.86%
0-0....21....6.86%
21 games from 306 ended 0-0
__________________________________________________________
Norway (still active) - (3 goals per match on average)
Score...Matches....%
2 - 0....14....15.05%
1 - 1....10....10.75%
0 - 1....9....9.68%
1 - 0....9....9.68%
2 - 1....6....6.45%
3 - 1....5....5.38%
2 - 2....4....4.3%
0 - 2....4....4.3%
1 - 2....3....3.23%
5 - 1....2....2.15%
5 - 0....2....2.15%
2 - 4....2....2.15%
1 - 4....2....2.15%
3 - 3....2....2.15%
2 - 3....2....2.15%
1 - 3....2....2.15%
4 - 2....2....2.15%
3 - 2....2....2.15%
4 - 0....2....2.15%
3 - 0....2....2.15%
0 - 0....2....2.15%
2 games from 93 - so far
_________________________________________________________
Swiss League - (2.98 goals per game)
Score....Matches....%
1 - 1....25....13.89%
2 - 2....15....8.33%
1 - 2....15....8.33%
1 - 0....14....7.78%
2 - 0....13....7.22%
3 - 1....11....6.11%
2 - 1....11....6.11%
0 - 1....10....5.56%
0 - 0....8.... 4.44%
8 games from 180 ended 0-0
________________________________________________________
Germany Bundesliga 1 - (2.92 Goals per game)
Score....Matches....%
1 - 1....34....11.11%
2 - 1....30....9.8%
0 - 1....30....9.8%
2 - 0....25....8.17%
1 - 3....21....6.86%
1 - 0....21....6.86%
1 - 2....19....6.21%
3 - 0....18....5.88%
0 - 0....14....4.58%
14 from 306 games ended 0-0
____________________________________________________________
English Premier League - (2.8 Goals per game)
Score....Matches....%
1 - 1....52....13.68%
2 - 1....40....10.53%
1 - 0....40....10.53%
2 - 0....30....7.89%
2 - 2....27....7.11%
0 - 0....25....6.58%
25 from 380 games ended 0-0
_________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________
Below shows the percentages of games that finished 0-0 last season (Norway still active) games in bold are the 6 highest scoring leagues in Europe)
0-0 games %'s
Norway = 2.15% (League still active)
Switzerland =4.44%
Germany 1 = 4.58%
Scotland - 5.7%
England League 1 = 5.8%
Holland 1 = 5.88%
England Prem - 6.58%
Holland 2 - 6.86%
Spain 2 - 6.93%
Belgium - 7.08
Spain 1 - 7.11%
Germany 2 - 7.19%
Austria - 7.22%
English Championship - 7.25
Denmark - 7.58%
England League 2 - 8.7%
Greece - 8.75%
Italy - 8.95%
Ireland Serie A - 8.99%
Turkey - 9.8%
Portugal 1 - 10%
Italy Serie B - 10.39%
Poland - 10.42%
France Ligue 2 - 11.05%
France Ligue 1 - 11.85%
Conclusion - Laying 0-0 in the high scoring leagues are indeed worth looking into given there 0-0 % over the course of the 2010/2011 season, ALSO, it clearly shows that Scotland (13 from 228 games),the English League 1 (32 from 552 games ended 0-0) as well as Spain's Second tier (32 from 462) are all attacking leagues, laying 0-0 should be considered. Avoid France clearly.
Leagues Still Active - 0-0 games
Brazil = 2.04 (1 game from 49)
Norway = 2.15% (2 games from 93)
Japan = 7.29% (7 games from 96)
Argentina - 9.14% (17 from 190)
South Korea - 10.71% (12 from 112)
Sweden - 10.75% - (10 from 93)
Conclusion - I don't personally don't trust Brazilian Football, but the stats do speak from themselves.
Show More
The most noticeable league for laying the 0-0 last season was the Scottish Premier League with the first not occurring until round 15 (4 months into the season).
If you look beyond the stats and at the teams themselves you'll spot other trends such as St Johnstone were involved in over 60% of those 0-0's (8/13) or over 20% of the 0-0's in the Eredivisie was PSV away (4/18).
If you look beyond the stats and at the teams themselves you'll spot other trends such as St Johnstone were involved in over 60% of those 0-0's (8/13) or over 20% of the 0-0's in the Eredivisie was PSV away (4/18).
Scandinavian Haven : Laying 0-0 imo is profitable in the long term if you have the patience to wait until the match is in-play and the odds have dropped to give yourself better value
Why is it better value when the odds have dropped? I can see it's a psychological comfort but that's about all it is.
I have plenty of practice in laying 0-0's (and have recorded books full of stats) and my conclusion is that laying pre kick off (or just after) is where the value is, because the price falls too slowly giving you longer exposure to the win than true value would give.
If you lay after 30 minutes you'll be catching the price correction where the odds drop too quickly, and will get less time exposed and less value.
Also, nice stats above, but without odds they don't mean much, and really they need to be compared to previous years and averaged.
Why is it better value when the odds have dropped? I can see it's a psychological comfort but that's about all it is.
I have plenty of practice in laying 0-0's (and have recorded books full of stats) and my conclusion is that laying pre kick off (or just after) is where the value is, because the price falls too slowly giving you longer exposure to the win than true value would give.
If you lay after 30 minutes you'll be catching the price correction where the odds drop too quickly, and will get less time exposed and less value.
Also, nice stats above, but without odds they don't mean much, and really they need to be compared to previous years and averaged.
Trevh
In regards to value, you're are given yourself less liability if you wait, of course there is less time for a goal to be scored, which is why I pointed out the high scoring leagues, if there are 0-0 games after half and hour or so like you say, in those leagues, it's worth thinking about laying that scoreline - how many goals are scored 15 minutes before half time? quite a few I imagine, that's how it's worked out for me, not sure if stats would back it up, but there you go.
Both our ways seem to be working
I prefer to wait,less liability, which means less time for a goal, but it's worked
You prefer Pre-Match, greater liability but much more time! and it works so it seems.
Someone's losing money
In regards to value, you're are given yourself less liability if you wait, of course there is less time for a goal to be scored, which is why I pointed out the high scoring leagues, if there are 0-0 games after half and hour or so like you say, in those leagues, it's worth thinking about laying that scoreline - how many goals are scored 15 minutes before half time? quite a few I imagine, that's how it's worked out for me, not sure if stats would back it up, but there you go.
Both our ways seem to be working
I prefer to wait,less liability, which means less time for a goal, but it's worked
You prefer Pre-Match, greater liability but much more time! and it works so it seems.
Someone's losing money
As Trevh says, price is everything. There is money to be made both backing and laying 0-0, although in general backing 0-0 at value is easier. If you were to do it blind, I'm pretty sure you'd lose slower by backing rather than laying.
sorry lads, i can only see this scoreline as a minefield, there must be alternative safer plays?
If you're looking for a back, then 1-1 is the way to go, you only have to look above to see that :)
1-1 looks pretty good actually, never thought about backing that
Bayes.
20 Jun 11 22:08 Joined: 13 Sep 05 | Topic/replies: 456 | Blogger: Bayes.'s blog
As Trevh says, price is everything. There is money to be made both backing and laying 0-0, although in general backing 0-0 at value is easier. If you were to do it blind, I'm pretty sure you'd lose slower by backing rather than laying.
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without knowing a single stat I'd assume that to be true. just on the basis that laying 0-0 is more fun to the recreational punter than backing it, so if there's going to be a marginal distortion of the price it'll be in favour of laying.
in general people prefer betting on things happening than not happening imo. betting on something not happening means all the moments of excitement are of dread rather than hope.
20 Jun 11 22:08 Joined: 13 Sep 05 | Topic/replies: 456 | Blogger: Bayes.'s blog
As Trevh says, price is everything. There is money to be made both backing and laying 0-0, although in general backing 0-0 at value is easier. If you were to do it blind, I'm pretty sure you'd lose slower by backing rather than laying.
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without knowing a single stat I'd assume that to be true. just on the basis that laying 0-0 is more fun to the recreational punter than backing it, so if there's going to be a marginal distortion of the price it'll be in favour of laying.
in general people prefer betting on things happening than not happening imo. betting on something not happening means all the moments of excitement are of dread rather than hope.
Conclusion - I don't personally don't trust Brazilian Football, but the stats do speak from themselves.
Actually, grasshopper, the stats do speak for themselves. But are the words they speak....THE TRUTH?
We must listen to....the whispers if we are to gain knowledge.
scandanavian_haven wrote:
Laying 0-0 imo is profitable in the long term if you have the patience to wait until the match is in-play and the odds have dropped to give yourself better value, here I have provided info for next season and for leagues that are still active, for your interest.
Per the bold: if you have the patience to wait until the match is in-play and the odds have dropped
The question is: how long are you waiting to lay the match?
If it is 10 minutes, you need to eliminate all matches in the leagues with goals in the first ten minutes since those would be unmatched 'successes'
If it is 15 minutes, then eliminate all 14 and under.
etc.
Conclusion: Your 'in-depth' research is not deep enough and will affect your stats.
Actually, grasshopper, the stats do speak for themselves. But are the words they speak....THE TRUTH?
We must listen to....the whispers if we are to gain knowledge.
scandanavian_haven wrote:
Laying 0-0 imo is profitable in the long term if you have the patience to wait until the match is in-play and the odds have dropped to give yourself better value, here I have provided info for next season and for leagues that are still active, for your interest.
Per the bold: if you have the patience to wait until the match is in-play and the odds have dropped
The question is: how long are you waiting to lay the match?
If it is 10 minutes, you need to eliminate all matches in the leagues with goals in the first ten minutes since those would be unmatched 'successes'
If it is 15 minutes, then eliminate all 14 and under.
etc.
Conclusion: Your 'in-depth' research is not deep enough and will affect your stats.
viva el presidente! wrote
in general people prefer betting on things happening than not happening imo. betting on something not happening means all the moments of excitement are of dread rather than hope.
Well worded. And there are times that I feel like I have more dreads than Bob Marley
in general people prefer betting on things happening than not happening imo. betting on something not happening means all the moments of excitement are of dread rather than hope.
Well worded. And there are times that I feel like I have more dreads than Bob Marley
EXAMPLE:
Holland 1 (Top Divison) - (3.23 goals per game)
Score...Matches....%
0-0....18....5.88%
So 18 games from 306 ended 0-0
In H1, 114 goals were scored in the first 15 minutes. No time to go 'more in-depth', but if we were to say of the 114 goals:
70% were in matches that had a single goal in the first 15 minutes
and 30% were 2 or more, then
62 matches had 1 goal in the first 15 minutes
26 matches 2 or more goals
for 88 matches total
So your stat becomes
306 matches
less 88 "unmatched bets"
= 218 lay "matched"
so the percentage becomes:
18 of 218 'lays' (NOT matches) were unsuccessful or
8.25% not 5.88% as your previous paper suggested, doctor!
Therefore, I now ask that the board vote to cut off any more funding to scandanavian_haven's flaaaawed work and move it to my department.
Good day, gentlemen
Holland 1 (Top Divison) - (3.23 goals per game)
Score...Matches....%
0-0....18....5.88%
So 18 games from 306 ended 0-0
In H1, 114 goals were scored in the first 15 minutes. No time to go 'more in-depth', but if we were to say of the 114 goals:
70% were in matches that had a single goal in the first 15 minutes
and 30% were 2 or more, then
62 matches had 1 goal in the first 15 minutes
26 matches 2 or more goals
for 88 matches total
So your stat becomes
306 matches
less 88 "unmatched bets"
= 218 lay "matched"
so the percentage becomes:
18 of 218 'lays' (NOT matches) were unsuccessful or
8.25% not 5.88% as your previous paper suggested, doctor!
Therefore, I now ask that the board vote to cut off any more funding to scandanavian_haven's flaaaawed work and move it to my department.
Good day, gentlemen
by the way, there's a 'flaw' in mine. Can you spot it? [;)]
This is a very interesting way of betting, i wonder how much profit there was, an what stakes?
Shapeshifter
Maybe your name should be Goal post shifter.
The stats I provided were to clearly show that Laying 0-0 in the high scoring Leagues as well as the Scottish Top Division and the English League One, is a good idea, it's as simple as that, the question is, when is the best time to Lay 0-0, what odds would you lay at - in other words, how much Liability are you willing to give yourself given the amount of time left in the game at which point would one consider Laying 0-0 to be a good value bet. Different leagues show different %'s of when most goals are scored/not scored - i.e first 15, second 15 etc, which is why I said Laying 0-0 imo is profitable in the long term if you have the patience to wait until the match is in-play and the odds have dropped to give yourself better value,
The whole point was to basically give a very good indication of how frequent the 0-0 scoreline appears in league where goals are aplenty.
Shape****r
Therefore, I now ask that the board vote to cut off any more funding to scandanavian_haven's flaaaawed work and move it to my department.
[smiley:crazy]
Mischievous, so you are, clearly.
Maybe your name should be Goal post shifter.
The stats I provided were to clearly show that Laying 0-0 in the high scoring Leagues as well as the Scottish Top Division and the English League One, is a good idea, it's as simple as that, the question is, when is the best time to Lay 0-0, what odds would you lay at - in other words, how much Liability are you willing to give yourself given the amount of time left in the game at which point would one consider Laying 0-0 to be a good value bet. Different leagues show different %'s of when most goals are scored/not scored - i.e first 15, second 15 etc, which is why I said Laying 0-0 imo is profitable in the long term if you have the patience to wait until the match is in-play and the odds have dropped to give yourself better value,
The whole point was to basically give a very good indication of how frequent the 0-0 scoreline appears in league where goals are aplenty.
Shape****r
Therefore, I now ask that the board vote to cut off any more funding to scandanavian_haven's flaaaawed work and move it to my department.
[smiley:crazy]
Mischievous, so you are, clearly.
wtf why was part of you in asterisks? 
shapeshifter was what I typed
shapeshifter was what I typed
As has been mentioned, the stats are largely meaningless without the odds. Are we to assume that across all leagues no one has taken account of the differences and all the odds are the same? Of course not. Look at the lay odds for Holland and France and then tell me which one is value. Just because more goals are scored in Holland does not make their odds value - that is way too simplistic.
My grade for this homework is C minus (must try harder) [;)]
My grade for this homework is C minus (must try harder) [;)]
I don't know much about football, but I just looked at a couple of Norwegian league matches
and 0-0 is between 20/1 and 27/1 and doesn't look easy to lay at those odds. That's about
where I'd expect the price to be based on your stats.
and 0-0 is between 20/1 and 27/1 and doesn't look easy to lay at those odds. That's about
where I'd expect the price to be based on your stats.
Haven't tried it myself but I think the value in correct scores is laying/backing certain scores in running which remain relatively static for a period.
Look at the lay odds for Holland and France and then tell me which one is value. Just because more goals are scored in Holland does not make their odds value - that is way too simplistic.
The point was (I sound like a parrot now) to show people where the 0-0 scoreline is most likely to appear, of course the odds are different for different leagues, but the 'value' would be looking towards laying that scoreline in the high scoring divisions from the stats I provided at certain points in the game, - not pre-match where they are too high!, yes you get better odds in the French leagues for example, but if the % chance of a goal being scored is low - then whatever the odds, it's just not 'value' for me. Question is, when do you lay, how much liability are you willing to give yourself.
And that was all.
The point was (I sound like a parrot now) to show people where the 0-0 scoreline is most likely to appear, of course the odds are different for different leagues, but the 'value' would be looking towards laying that scoreline in the high scoring divisions from the stats I provided at certain points in the game, - not pre-match where they are too high!, yes you get better odds in the French leagues for example, but if the % chance of a goal being scored is low - then whatever the odds, it's just not 'value' for me. Question is, when do you lay, how much liability are you willing to give yourself.
And that was all.
In case anyone is interested, if you take all the 0-0 scores for every EPL game played last season the average back price is 14.10 (7.09%) and the average lay price is 14.75 (6.78%).
Gambling Research into results without regard to prices is pointless.
You conclude to lay 0-0 in Spain and avoid France on the basis that 0-0s are much more likely in France.
Laying 0-0 @7/1 in France would have been profitbale and laying@16/1 in Spain would have resulted in a loss.
You conclude to lay 0-0 in Spain and avoid France on the basis that 0-0s are much more likely in France.
Laying 0-0 @7/1 in France would have been profitbale and laying@16/1 in Spain would have resulted in a loss.
is it rude to resurrect a 2 year old fred??
how are you doing with the 0-0 laying?
how are you doing with the 0-0 laying?
scandanavian, I see in some leagues you give the percentages for 2-1
but not 1-2, then in other leagues just one of those scores. Any
particular reason for that?
but not 1-2, then in other leagues just one of those scores. Any
particular reason for that?
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