General Betting
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16 Jun 11
13:32
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Date Joined:
27 May 11
Is this possible? I'm hoping for a few 'yeses' to give me hope.
I'm starting to look into laying favourites - with the place market in Horse racing a considered option?
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I'm starting to look into laying favourites - with the place market in Horse racing a considered option?
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Replies: 80
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Of course it's possible to, average, £100+ a day. You should also keep in mind that it's far, far easier to lose, on average, £100+ a day.
Good luck. |
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£100 per day on what bank? £100 per day on a bank of £100,000 is probably achievable (just).
£100 per day on a bank of £3000 isn't. Do bear in mind that on average people lose. This is inescapable. You need to have some reason why you think you can make money. Blind hope will not cut it. Do also bear in mind that previous results are fairly meaningless. In poker you should not aim to judge if you are a 'winning' player until you've played 10,000 hands. Likewise you should aim for a similar number of betfair markets before you can really judge your aptitude. |
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A £3000 bank is more than enough to make, on average, £100 a day if you have an edge.
You have to take into account, even with a small edge, if you operate in markets where you can turn over your money numerous times £100+ is achievable. I'm not saying everyone can do it but it's achievable. |
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£100 per day on what bank? £100 per day on a bank of £100,000 is probably achievable (just).
I'm absolutely baffled by that - unless you are in the mindset of backing 1.01 shots in large stakes? if you had that sort of money, £100 a day would be the objective, surely it would be a lot higher. I do agree with buzzer tbh, I think it can be achievable with a much smaller starting bank. Finding the edge is obviously the key, atm, I haven't found what I'm looking for - to quote a U2 song  |
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*would not be the the objective
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try out different ways with a small bank, once uv found where ur consistently winning, do 10 a day, 20 a day, and so on til ur totally sure, then up and away, dont dive in straight away
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If you are looking at an income of around 20k a year, it's much easier to make that sort of amount if you're not winning _consistently_.
The amount you're playing w/ will of course make a big diff. to how much you can expect to win. The way to practise is to estimate yr advantage for every bet, write this down, then see how much you won/lost. Keep doing this until you have a sample large to be able to have a sense of how good you are judging yr edge. Then work out the figures for compounding yr bank to see how quickly you could get to yr desired level of income. You must also take into account the liquidity of yr markets once you are betting in the hundreds. It is highly unlikely that your implied percentage return per bet if you are betting on a judgment basis w/out previous experience (in sports) is greater than say 0.5 of a %. Work out how often you'll need to turnover yr money, in what denominations and at what edge to reach yr target. Can you find that many opportunities? There are people who are technically highly skilled who are making hundreds of thousands on exchanges. There are slightly demented enthusiasts like me who are making much, much less but still what cd be considered a second income. Then for every person who has painfully lifted themselves from the recreational level, there are something like 50 mugs. Don't imagine you can make money long-term w/out resilience, pedantic care and the most grinding kind of effort. |
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i cant see many people earning that. no-one who doesnt aftertime anyway.
probably just the investor really |
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Paulme, I really don't know. The people having 30,000 bets a day through bots who populate the markets need an edge of something less than 0.5% per bet to make a hundred thousand. If these people don't exist, are all the markets populated by recreational money?
I know that on the comm I am on I cannot go up with a price on more than seven or eight runners a race and then only in such small quantities that I can trade out if I get caught w/ my pants down. I can't see where the money comes from if it isn't profitable liquidity providers. |
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hi askari1, just a quick question please? how many bets would u consider is a large sample? thanks
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I'm a very good dirty arber and I started trading tennis 4 months ago as a precursor to some consultancy work.If you are just betting I have no idea how much is needed for £100 a day but if you are trading and finding value I don't think you need more than 1k.
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aueng, people who have genuinely studied stats in an educational setting will know better than me, but it depends on the nature of the distribution of yr results.
If they are what are called 'fat-tailed' as betting (backing) results tend to be, then you will need a much greater sample size to get yr confidence interval down to an appropriate size (say an estimated advantage of between -0.2 to +0.6% per bet) for you to feel comfortable betting. A 'confidence interval' means the degree of confidence with which you can say that a value lies in a certain range, so e.g. an opinion pollster will say he has 90% confidence that between 35 and 38% of people will vote Conservative. Some people will give you a rough answer in terms of a number of bets, but I feel that these numbers are just plucked out the air until you have evaluated the mean and variance of yr sample. Excel does all this for you (I did not know this when I started out). |
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cheers mate, thanks for reply
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The correct question by the OP is whether it is possible to earn x units over x bets if you're staking x units per bet.
If this equates then to x units daily, so be it. A day means nothing in the lifetime of a gambler's results. |
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There was a guy called johndineen on here who had forgotten more about mathematics than I've ever been able to learn. He only contributed occasionally to give the last word on a subject on which everyone else was flailing. There are other people too who can tell you more than me about identifying the thresholds at which yr results are significant.
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Askari and everyone else
Thanks for your input, they were the kind of answers I was looking for. I am however, going to try this out. Look at certain markets that I deem to have ample liquidity with good trading options, then analyse for a while the movement of odds before and during the event, then begin to research matches (teams/players form etc), in Tennis/football for example, place bets according to my research with a starting bank of 1k(maybe need higher) - but I will do that using no money at first (as in a Trial run), then when I feel comfortable and confident enough to bet in with real money, I'll give it a go. I haven't been here long but I have made a bit just from outright bets in areas I really know well, like Premiership / Spanish football and Tennis (ATP and WTA). I'm actually in profit but that may be beginners luck, but I want to hit the ground running and make more You never know I might start to earn £,£££'s (via £100+ daily) instead of £££'s in the long run. |
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So innocent and quite charming.
Hope it all goes just like you hope it will. Ummm, I wonder what the odds of that would be ? You might be best advised to try to figure that important number out first? |
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Hello there Scandanavian_haven. You are saying the right things and if you go down that path you have a good chance of success. My biggest concern for you would be trying to do too much too quickly.
That's when problems arise taking risks and making the wrong decisions because of the pressure you put on yourself to earn a certain amount. good luck and don't rush it (and certainly forget about the £100 per day for now). |
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FAFH
tbh, I'm not an academic and never will be so maths is not my strong point which obviously doesn't bode well when you're using a gambling/trading site, however, I believe that my passion for sports and keen eye for detail (stats research etc) could be sufficient for me to make long term profit in 5 figures if I find that all important 'edge' that people talk about, I wish someone would just tell me  , my staking plan is something I will have to work on, trial and error initially with no real money is a good way to learn. I mean I'm already depositing money making outright bets, but not in the big boys league like you no doubt, just £100 Max bets.My ambition is to pay off my rent and bills for a whole year (£8-9k) then enjoy the life of reily, a dream I know, but if you don't dream, what's the point. |
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oh I know U.A, I've read endless threads about people who start tipping threads and then chase there bets when it goes wrong, you can learn lessons here just by reading other people's triumphs and despairs. It's interesting stuff.
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Nothing wrong in dreams.
Just make sure they don't turn into nightmares. Dream the impossible dream is just a nice song title. Btw if maths is not your strong point then I would start out trying to make it your strong point. |
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if maths is not your strong point then I would start out trying to make it your strong point.
I'm on too that, you have to reach for the stars though because you just might get the moon. |
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Key piece of advice.
Never ever chase one small part of any loss. You will sincerely regret starting down that slippery slope. It cannot be done successfully by anyone long term. That is a fact undisputed by all knowledgeable with mathematics. |
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Thanks, yep I wont be chasing, I've seen those that do and it's not pretty.
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There is no mathematical connection between two unrelated bets. That's all the maths needed wrt chasing.
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paulme 16 Jun 11 19:36
i cant see many people earning that. no-one who doesnt aftertime anyway. probably just the investor really Are you as simple as you appear to be? |
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Spot on cat.
But how many really understand that ? |
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeljko_Ranogajec
dont think he'd be very happy if he made 100 a day myself |
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good point catfloppo - however two unrelated bets do have something in common - (if talking about chasing) they have the same individual making the two bets which as we all know is the problem one must deal with when succeeding at betting.
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OK undern. Good point.
How about then that I chase your bets and you chase mine. Will that work perhaps ? |
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in the context of 'chasing' which is what catfloppo referred to - there can only really be one individual doing the betting.
Figuratively speaking - I would only let you chase my bets if I knew you could chase your own - however if you did have to chase then that says it all ... which would leave me to conclude you aren't good enough to chase my own ones - an illustration only FAFH nothing personal. |
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Good grief,I was only joking with you undern.
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erm what McChicken!?
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You ask inane question after inane question.
And come to the conclusion that only the investor could make over £100 a day consistently. Without aftertiming? Do you even understand what you write? |
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He should have at least said " only Investor and Mc Chicken --- " .
Then you would be happy I hope, or happier at least ?. Btw I agree that Paulme is a bit of a worry. But then many say that about me too. |
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Undern, as you are already making £65.01 per day on your challenge why don't you up the stakes by 53.8%. You are now in little danger of losing your original bank and I doubt you would lose your current bank by increasing the stake. Additionally you will reach your target before your results list will be several pages long!. Great stuff whatever you do - good luck to you.
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I'm thinking about purchasing a dummies guide to Betfair
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Consistently ? That would be difficult unless you were a trader ,some days you will of course lose ....and why would you need to win consistently ? as long as you win long term.
The other thing you have to get away from(esp. from reading this forum [;)]) is the notion that you have to have some kind of advanced academic educational background . You need a brain that works fairly well with numbers/logic/sequences (even if you have trouble tying your own shoelaces) and very little in the way of a Bio Physics/ English Literature background. Good luck anyway . |
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Scandinavia - for dummies is about right
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