General Betting
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30 May 11
11:46
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Date Joined:
22 Mar 04
Hi top2rated,
I know you do systems and I was wondering if you had any thoughts on staking plans for backing, not laying.
I started a bank on 24/02/11 and am following a plan of 0.5% of bank (per selection) at start of day. Once the stake for the day has been calculated, it applies to all selections for that day at BF SP.
The selections come from systems so they are fairly randomly priced and the number per day varies between 2 and 50, although a typical number would be 24.
My daily results are below, I'm in profit but I have the feeling that I'm not realising full potential and the staking plan is the only thing I can change.
24/02/2011 -48.74
25/02/2011 -95.72
26/02/2011 139.38
27/02/2011 -18.75
28/02/2011 57.52
01/03/2011 -38.97
02/03/2011 -16.95
03/03/2011 134.56
04/03/2011 33.98
05/03/2011 22.31
06/03/2011 13.74
07/03/2011 -11.19
08/03/2011 -26.79
09/03/2011 -36.67
10/03/2011 -39.24
11/03/2011 3.40
12/03/2011 138.90
13/03/2011 -14.10
14/03/2011 -34.90
15/03/2011 9.30
16/03/2011 -51.78
17/03/2011 -104.33
18/03/2011 -52.64
19/03/2011 -50.90
20/03/2011 226.06
21/03/2011 -15.96
22/03/2011 -38.79
23/03/2011 -31.86
24/03/2011 -30.17
25/03/2011 6.59
26/03/2011 -85.12
27/03/2011 -18.00
28/03/2011 -17.95
29/03/2011 -42.00
30/03/2011 110.22
31/03/2011 -13.95
01/04/2011 -69.89
02/04/2011 234.66
03/04/2011 -82.52
04/04/2011 255.75
05/04/2011 -2.73
06/04/2011 19.90
07/04/2011 -181.92
08/04/2011 222.01
09/04/2011 -137.56
10/04/2011 12.02
11/04/2011 -57.02
12/04/2011 35.74
13/04/2011 11.17
14/04/2011 180.47
15/04/2011 -152.93
16/04/2011 -69.87
17/04/2011 0.26
18/04/2011 2.82
19/04/2011 58.11
20/04/2011 25.27
21/04/2011 -37.58
22/04/2011 0.00
23/04/2011 49.68
24/04/2011 138.25
25/04/2011 -33.64
26/04/2011 103.14
27/04/2011 388.12
28/04/2011 184.91
29/04/2011 144.70
30/04/2011 54.75
01/05/2011 195.36
02/05/2011 -89.97
03/05/2011 30.20
04/05/2011 340.08
05/05/2011 -93.55
06/05/2011 -236.04
07/05/2011 -261.02
08/05/2011 482.30
09/05/2011 220.37
10/05/2011 -48.28
11/05/2011 -168.25
12/05/2011 -230.89
13/05/2011 -229.87
14/05/2011 -76.70
15/05/2011 510.32
16/05/2011 87.96
17/05/2011 -129.77
18/05/2011 -116.73
19/05/2011 -268.51
20/05/2011 102.06
21/05/2011 180.64
22/05/2011 -66.40
23/05/2011 9.44
24/05/2011 -124.95
25/05/2011 -149.03
26/05/2011 -114.80
27/05/2011 -92.73
28/05/2011 64.58
29/05/2011 380.02
Initial Bank 1200.00
Bank Now 2562.40
Win Stake 12.81 (for today's selections)
cheers
I know you do systems and I was wondering if you had any thoughts on staking plans for backing, not laying.
I started a bank on 24/02/11 and am following a plan of 0.5% of bank (per selection) at start of day. Once the stake for the day has been calculated, it applies to all selections for that day at BF SP.
The selections come from systems so they are fairly randomly priced and the number per day varies between 2 and 50, although a typical number would be 24.
My daily results are below, I'm in profit but I have the feeling that I'm not realising full potential and the staking plan is the only thing I can change.
24/02/2011 -48.74
25/02/2011 -95.72
26/02/2011 139.38
27/02/2011 -18.75
28/02/2011 57.52
01/03/2011 -38.97
02/03/2011 -16.95
03/03/2011 134.56
04/03/2011 33.98
05/03/2011 22.31
06/03/2011 13.74
07/03/2011 -11.19
08/03/2011 -26.79
09/03/2011 -36.67
10/03/2011 -39.24
11/03/2011 3.40
12/03/2011 138.90
13/03/2011 -14.10
14/03/2011 -34.90
15/03/2011 9.30
16/03/2011 -51.78
17/03/2011 -104.33
18/03/2011 -52.64
19/03/2011 -50.90
20/03/2011 226.06
21/03/2011 -15.96
22/03/2011 -38.79
23/03/2011 -31.86
24/03/2011 -30.17
25/03/2011 6.59
26/03/2011 -85.12
27/03/2011 -18.00
28/03/2011 -17.95
29/03/2011 -42.00
30/03/2011 110.22
31/03/2011 -13.95
01/04/2011 -69.89
02/04/2011 234.66
03/04/2011 -82.52
04/04/2011 255.75
05/04/2011 -2.73
06/04/2011 19.90
07/04/2011 -181.92
08/04/2011 222.01
09/04/2011 -137.56
10/04/2011 12.02
11/04/2011 -57.02
12/04/2011 35.74
13/04/2011 11.17
14/04/2011 180.47
15/04/2011 -152.93
16/04/2011 -69.87
17/04/2011 0.26
18/04/2011 2.82
19/04/2011 58.11
20/04/2011 25.27
21/04/2011 -37.58
22/04/2011 0.00
23/04/2011 49.68
24/04/2011 138.25
25/04/2011 -33.64
26/04/2011 103.14
27/04/2011 388.12
28/04/2011 184.91
29/04/2011 144.70
30/04/2011 54.75
01/05/2011 195.36
02/05/2011 -89.97
03/05/2011 30.20
04/05/2011 340.08
05/05/2011 -93.55
06/05/2011 -236.04
07/05/2011 -261.02
08/05/2011 482.30
09/05/2011 220.37
10/05/2011 -48.28
11/05/2011 -168.25
12/05/2011 -230.89
13/05/2011 -229.87
14/05/2011 -76.70
15/05/2011 510.32
16/05/2011 87.96
17/05/2011 -129.77
18/05/2011 -116.73
19/05/2011 -268.51
20/05/2011 102.06
21/05/2011 180.64
22/05/2011 -66.40
23/05/2011 9.44
24/05/2011 -124.95
25/05/2011 -149.03
26/05/2011 -114.80
27/05/2011 -92.73
28/05/2011 64.58
29/05/2011 380.02
Initial Bank 1200.00
Bank Now 2562.40
Win Stake 12.81 (for today's selections)
cheers
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Replies: 13
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By:
Great work. Are you sure that altering your staking is the way forward?
With a bank doubled in 3 months there is no need to tinker I think. Your call of course, but I think the issue of backing on systems is that you'll always be relying on the fact that trainers are trying to win that day which may not always be the case. You are then into the realms of luck as to whether or not you time your larger stakes on the occasions when the horses win. Good luck though. |
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thanks for your views Dave.
the default position is to stick with what I've got, there is just a nagging feeling that I may be missing out on something else which is a bit more sophisticated. I know that the purists say that level stakes is the true test and anything else is artificial but I don't know whether that can be mathematically proved. |
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swift-tuttle
I think he pattern of results you'll experience with any system or any combination of systems will be entirely random. Consequently, to adjust your stake in reaction to a sequence of winners or losers would not be advisable in my humble opinion. To be honest the only staking plan I'd consider would be a variable staking plan - backing each selection to return 1pt at the odds taken, e.g. stake 0.5pt @ 3.00, stake 0.1 pt @ 11.00 etc, etc. In fact, if you've got a record of your selections in a spreadsheet now might be a good time to check out their performance using the variable staking plan in order to see if your figures have been skewed by fluke long priced winners. If you need any help with this, give me a shout. Impressive bottom line to date by the way.  |
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youve won 20 percent of you bank in one go an just under 20 percent as well
thats way too much fluctating try to control that ... when you can then higher your stakes |
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thanks for your contribution top2rated, it's very much appreciated. I'll mull over what you have said and try to hone my spreadsheet skills to do what you suggest. I'd like to have a bash at that to see if I could come up with the correct formula.
Rs1 - It just seems to be the nature of it. The totals you are seeing are for a day's betting, I do seem to get a clutch of winners (and losers) which results in these spikes either side of the graph. The only way I could try to control that is to think of another filter and that is very dangerous ground I think. |
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05/05/2011 -93.55
06/05/2011 -236.04 07/05/2011 -261.02 you cant been on 2500 when you did that ... you lost actually at least 35 percent of your bank it can happen again an that would have nearly cleaned you out ... strange things unfortunately do happen like i said try to control ..lower your stakes so your not losing too much you wouldnt want to get to a year then go bust ... as i can see it with your figures once you got in check raise ... i would seriously look into lowering your stakes for now .. upto you ...but i wouldnt someone to waste a year to realise they have nothing |
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i dont know what you do or how you do it , but in space of a few months you managed to lose a large chunk of your bank ... wil happen again an in a row .. that will be big trouble
if you carry on with this id put money on you wont have anything by the end of the year but thats not want you want to hear ... youll think u got something great an want to raise meaning even bigger fluctations ... will be hit by a major prob |
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I hear what you are saying Rs1 - but how do you know which way it is going to go?
you suggest lower your stakes, as I explained I was using 0.5% of 'start of day' bank balance for each of the day's selections. If I lowered the % then , yes I would lose less on losing days but on winning days ...... |
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the way to success here are you money management an strategy ... discipline etc comes under these
i dont know your strategy but your money management seems wrong as your fluctuating too much im just giving u some friendly advice ... not taking the piss you have a small bank ... yet your winning an losing big percentages if your strategy is sound ... you will never know if it works as your betting too large you need to bet less an not worry about winning in the shortwhile like i said its not what u want to hear an think your gonna go larger you had a clutch of losing days ..three or so what when you get 5 or 6 together ... that will wipe u out ... an i guarantee it will happen from the numbers you put up |
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swift-tuttle
Alternatively, you could use a 'skimming the bank' approach. This would mean reverting to your 1200 bank and capping the total daily stakes at say 10% of the bank. Then when any day's activities result in say a 5% or greater increase of the bank cream off that profit and revert to the 1200 bank. On the subject of spreadsheets and variable staking I did run a system on another forum earlier this year and posted the final results on Google Accounts. Here's the link to the summary of results from 26 January to 26 March 2011. https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AjriKHhwpRQQdHRVb0ZoMkhTWGdpeGZnSXJEc3loS1E&hl=en&authkey=CNzz8ZQI#gid=0 Columns A - J are self explanatory. Column K shows the return (after deducting 5% commission) as a result of betting the Advised Stake at Betfair SP. I realise that the Betfair SP would not be known until after the off but I've used it purely to illustrate the Variable Staking plan. Column L illustrates the Variable Staking plan where the aim is to return £10.00 (£9.50 after commission) based on the Betfair SP. Column M is the Variable Staking plan return i.e. £9.50 for a winner. Column N is the accumulative number of winners, and Column O the accumulative Strike Rate of the selections. NB - Please note that there were no qualifiers during the period 07 - 11 February inclusive. The spreadsheet can be downloaded for further use by clicking on 'File' and then clicking on 'Download'. If you'd rather not download it you can see the formulas I've used for variable staking by clicking on a cell and looking at the formula bar. I'm off to work soon and won't be on here again until late afternoon so if you have any queries I'll get back to you as soon as I can. All the best. |
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thanks top2r
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ok, question not aimed at me... but I had a look at the numbers so may as well let you know what I found...
In this sample I think you *seem* to be running at about 0.6 of Kelly Criterion staking (inferred from the daily returns)... If you had used Kelly with perfect foresight you would have £3192 as current bank (47% more return but placing bets 62.5% bigger)... Personally, I see this as not much upside for a lot of extra risk so would suggest you do NOT increase your staking. If I was you I might: 1 - take the risk down slightly... maybe to 0.4 or 0.5 Kelly 2 - evaluate the bank more often (as opposed to once per day). This would limit downside risk and increase upside (on a bad day you scale size down, on a good day you scale up) Decent performance so far... good luck |
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thanks^
sounds like good advice it wouldn't take much extra effort to evaluate the bank halfway through the day especially with night racing |