General Betting
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markets such as EPL match odds only (markets that you would think are set quite accurately, and its hard to have a large edge)
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Replies: 21
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The Markets for that are no more accurate than any other IMO . They are very volatile, so not possible for them to always be correct.
Less likely to pay premium charge if you are winning on that, if you are just betting pre match and letting bets ride, as you will have plenty of losers even if you are very good at it. People trading pre match and greening up more likely to pay PC though as fewer losing markets and less commission paid on gross profit. Hard to have a large edge on it . Hard to have a large edge on anything though. |
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yes thats what i mean, hard to have a large edge... lets say, is there anyone who;
bets epl doesnt trade doesnt bet in play match odds/total goals all pre kick-off would be an absolute freak... if there was someone who could do that |
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I posted all my Premier Lg bets on here in the 2008/09 Season . All pre match bets, very rarely greened up.
Finished about £350 up, which was an ROI of about 3-4 % from what i recall. 2nd half of the season was terrible though, had been +£2,200 at Christmas, but was never anywhere near paying PC at any point, just paying too much % commission as the strike rate was never any better than 35% winning markets. |
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would be an absolute freak... if there was someone who could do that
Question is, why would they want to. If you think correct price is evens and you can lay at 1.9, and then it subsequently drifts out to 2-2.02 without any fundamental change in the underlying event, it would be made not to trade in most cases. |
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made = mad
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If the correct odds are Evs better to just have the 1.90 lay i'd think
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that is true... but obviously, i meant, is there any big positional players out there on these high liquidity markets that pay PC
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tobermory
Date Joined: 01 Mar 08 Add contact | Send message When: 21 May 11 13:08 Joined: Date Joined: 01 Mar 08 | Topic/replies: 18,623 | Blogger: tobermory's blog If the correct odds are Evs better to just have the 1.90 lay i'd think How does that make sense? Obviously you'll pay less commission long term trading out at evens, which quite substantially increases your overall edge. |
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SirPunter I would think it's virtually impossible.
1. Like you say you would imagine the markets are too efficient to offer a big enough long term edge. 2. If they had such a high strike rate the liquidity is such that they wouldnt be making the most of their edge if they did pay it. |
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You'd have to be very confident that Evs was the precise price, if you allow for a margin of error then you couldn't do it without the concern that you were following a good bet with a poor one.
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Yeah that's a possibility, but you could be erring on either side, maybe the 'real' correct prices is 1.98.
Also even if the correct price is 2.02, giving up a bit of value to avoid a big chunk of commission is usually worthwhile. |
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That makes sense Investor for people who's commission rate/ pc varies a lot depending on how good a week/month they've had
I suppose Sir Punter that people who are big players would be on a low enough commission rate to not be paying much of their gross profits and so could be vulnerable to paying pc on long term premier league betting in a way that people paying 4%+ wouldn't be. |
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Greening up is the route to paying the PC.
I'm trying to wean myself off the habit. Surprisingly hard. |
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tobermory Joined: 01 Mar 08
Replies: 18691 21 May 11 11:34 I posted all my Premier Lg bets on here in the 2008/09 Season . All pre match bets, very rarely greened up. Finished about £350 up, which was an ROI of about 3-4 % from what i recall. 2nd half of the season was terrible though, had been +£2,200 at Christmas, but was never anywhere near paying PC at any point, just paying too much % commission as the strike rate was never any better than 35% winning markets. Tobermory, this cant be right. You only need a 7.5% ROI before commission to pay PC. You must have been deep in PC territory at Christmas. |
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You get a 1k lifetime allowance, pathetic though it is.
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blank you're measuring ROI on market turnover.
tobermory is measuring by bet turnover, which is the usual way to measure it. Theoretically you could have a 0.01% ROI and pay PC. I pay PC on a ROI well below 0.5%. |
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Blank,
looking at the weekly totals , which i still have a record of , the peak of my success was after 16 weeks when i had a profit of £2,104 , having staked £8,456, an ROI of around 25% (no wonder it couldn't be sustained!*) and it is hard to see that i could have been paying more than 20% of gross profit in commission on that. But i can't get the original thread as betfair deleted the old ones and so don't know what the average odds of the winners were .I also can't remember what commission rate i was on back then, a large number of the bets were not placed on here and i was doing a lot of other bets on Betfair at that time (recall losing about £500 on Specials Markets that were settled right about then) also i had won about £1000 on Big Brother when that ended in September having had hundreds of bets on that. It is possible that i was close to paying PC at some point without it crossing my mind . When it started (late September 2008) - while i was doing this - Betfair sent me an e-mail saying 'Yes you are winning on Befair but by our calculations you will never pay PC based on your past success'' They sent that out to everyone that was winning but had avoided the PC in the first couple of weeks to counter the 'tax on winners' stuff that was all over the forum . As it was i lost heavily at the end of 2008 and early 2009 and have never done so well since. * finished +£374 , for an ROI of 2.93% |
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That's good stuff tobermory. The ROI in those 16 weeks would have definitely cost you a few hundred in PC if taken in isolation. The 1k allowance probably saved you. Thankfully now that the PC is based on lifetime it's harder to pay it when on an exceptional run.
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tobermory 21 May 11 11:34
I posted all my Premier Lg bets on here in the 2008/09 Season . All pre match bets, very rarely greened up. Finished about £350 up, which was an ROI of about 3-4 % from what i recall. 2nd half of the season was terrible though, had been +£2,200 at Christmas, but was never anywhere near paying PC at any point, just paying too much % commission as the strike rate was never any better than 35% winning markets. Done a click and go on here, english other than prem laying odds on. just a test, I don't bet that way. result? Slight win, relativly large comm. You have to be good to beat comm on straight off bets. |
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Pulled it up.
System. test.....etc |
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Tobers, i read a lot of your threads and you have a very good understanding of betting logic /sequences/maths/trading not to mention sport itself, which is why i've never understood why you haven't made it pay more .
Do you have a job that doesn't allow you to put in the hours ?(or make it worth your while) ?  |