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Laying favourites for the summer jumps

mickster1878

16 May 11 13:06

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Date Joined: 29 Jan 11

| Topic/replies: 14 | Blogger: mickster1878's blog

hi, where would i find statistics to back up my thoughts that more short priced favourites get turned over at summer jumps meeting than more traditional winter jumping which have around 30% strike rate. You get decent enough horses in certain races, but going off at vastly under priced odds eg 1/8, 1/5, etc when they shoud be closer to 4/6, 4/7. Always rememer a meeting summer before last, 2 p nicholls horses 1/6 lost, then the next race 1/7 lost too.. money to be made in my opinion.

any ideas

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Replies: 10

By:

zipper When: 16 May 11 13:23

FAVS WIN about 33.655 OF THE RACES Price dont matter

By:

SIR_Bond When: 16 May 11 15:29

so lay the fav in every race to have a 67 % strike rate.

[smiley:crazy]

By:

noukari When: 16 May 11 15:32

Racform interactive might help you. But be careful many races are very uncompetitive during the summer, its not uncommon to see favs through the card at some smaller night meetings

By:

SIR_Bond When: 16 May 11 15:34

Back McCoy on the fav's in the summer IMO.

By:

top2rated When: 16 May 11 15:37

National Hunt Odds on favourites January 2003 to 15 May 2011.

Date (Month of Year)	Bets	Wins	WinStrike	SP_PL	Places	PlaceStrike	ROI
January	523	303	58%	-41.10	124	24%	-7.86%
February	610	375	61%	-21.53	133	22%	-3.53%
March	665	384	58%	-60.55	135	20%	-9.11%
April	501	303	60%	-22.37	102	20%	-4.47%
May	535	314	59%	-38.79	119	22%	-7.25%
June	226	135	60%	-11.98	57	25%	-5.30%
July	195	113	58%	-13.50	44	23%	-6.92%
August	198	122	62%	-0.84	33	17%	-0.42%
September	147	83	56%	-13.83	34	23%	-9.41%
October	410	242	59%	-21.87	91	22%	-5.33%
November	689	436	63%	7.52	122	18%	1.09%
December	471	273	58%	-33.69	100	21%	-7.15%

By:

SIR_Bond When: 16 May 11 15:41

sooooooooo... no diffrence hardly.

By:

top2rated When: 16 May 11 15:59

National Hunt Favourites - May - September 2003-15 May 2011.

Odds	Bets	Wins	WinStrike	SP_PL	Places	PlaceStrike	ROI
A) Less than 1/2	341	248	73%	-12.93	53	16%	-3.79%
B) Btw 1/2 & 10/11	960	519	54%	-66.01	234	24%	-6.88%
C) Btw Evens & 6/4	1164	482	41%	-77.46	348	30%	-6.65%
D) Btw 13/8 & 9/4	1778	565	32%	-125.83	531	30%	-7.08%
E) Btw 5/2 & 4/1	2127	465	22%	-248.37	607	29%	-11.68%
F) Btw 9/2 & 6/1	237	44	19%	13.00	62	26%	5.49%
G) Btw 13/2 & 8/1	10	1	10%	-2.50	4	40%	-25.00%

By:

zipper When: 17 May 11 13:12

Sir Bond backing all favs or laying all favs .. backing you will lose laying you wont win a bag of sand give you a clue if the course bookies could only lay the fav and nothing else ,well there would be no bookies on course ... or high street shops .

By:

mickster1878 When: 18 May 11 16:13

thats really helpful, as i said it was just a hunch i had that they seemed to get turned over more,and at shorter prices, hence i asked for some info!!

Thanks very much guys much appreciated

By:

lannie1980 When: 18 May 11 22:53

mickster go to http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/fav/index.php and put in your filters under custom report to see what it throws up - best bet imho