General Betting
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For mugs only surely?
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Replies: 17
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AUSTRIA the "value" though
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So you don't believe anyone is systematically raking it in? I think in virtually every market you'll find on Betfair, someone is exploiting an edge, rather than everyone placing random bets.
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We all randomly place bets on specials.
Fortunately the majority of the forum randomly picked the winner. Let's hope we can be as lucky next year. |
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My two biggest exposures ever have been on the last two Eurovisions. I have no interest in it generally but when I can lay a million to one shot 880 for 50 quid, I'm in!
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^^^ who was that, and why do you say there were a million to one?
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I suppose there are some in the Euro that literally have 0% chance of winning.
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a complete lottery? well the one that was backed in to be fav before the off won easily.
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I layed Greece at 880. They were 75 points behind with 7 nations left to vote. A million to one is at the very low end of the correct price.
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for 50 quid? at 880? holy sh1t
small liability there good stuff |
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£44,000
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Fair play lol, thought you meant before the start, Sadly I don't have a spare 44k to do that
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"a complete lottery? well the one that was backed in to be fav before the off won easily"
I assume you meant the previous time. This one, France were just under 2/1, went as low as 6/4 during the show before coming nowhere! |
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The best betting event of the year bar none!
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turtles when I looked just before the off on the voting I thought Azer were favs, though I wasn't checking all the time and it was close between them and France admitedly.
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That's because France sang badly, but they were still favourite as the voting started.
In the weeks leading up to the show France was a clear favourite. Around 7/4 - 2/1 for the week leading up to the contest. We also had the gamble on Jedward which had them as clear 2nd favourites. Azer were 5th, 6th , 7th favs in the lead up. They only went 3rd favourite after the draw and only went single figures wehn the Racing Post tipped them up @ 10/1 on the saturday morning. Given the Racing Posts record in special bets I'm surprised they didn't drift ;) , but clearly plenty of casual punters followed their tip. |
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People don't seriously bet on things because of the idiots in the racing post, surely
 Certainly not anywhere near enough to affect the prices at least. There is a thread on the footie forum where all the footy tipsters predictions are done each week, and almost all of them have an roi of around -15 to -20%! |
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I'm sure in a relatively small market like Eurovision, where there are many casual punters with little knowledge, that the RP tip helped move Azers price by a few points.
It then became a collapse as none of the early songs impressed hugely. One of them being the 2nd favs Jedward and another being the 4th favs Blue When the favs France also failed to come upto expectation, the Azers price shortened even further. iirc they drifted after performing. Which was the case with nearly every song. |