Obama to get re-elected in 2012 ???

Incumbents always have an advantage, and he's stabilised his position by quashing (most of) the rumours about his birth and by seeing off Osama Bin Laden. However, his job approval ratings are still not where they need to be, and he needs to make serious headway on the economy to bring it home.

We're also a long way out and Republicans are already realising that in polling neither Palin or Trump resonate well with the electorate and so are ready to switch horses - those two have been "trial ballooned" for a little while, and whilst loved by the hardcore crazies, aren't liked so much by the general population. There is a very, very strong chance another stronger candidate - with more political credibility - will emerge. Mitt Romney is currently favourite for Republican candidate, but I can't see him beating Obama, and he will want to keep his powder dry for 2016, I think. Some of the other candidates though... could be interesting to see the race. There are a lot of sharp political minds in that party, and Obama is still weak.

That said, I'd currently put Obama at around 1.25-1.3, so yes, 1.5 is "value", but not enough for me to want to lump on: if it's still a similar figure around Christmas this year and it looks like the Republicans might throw Trump or Palin on the bonfire and let them have a run, I'd definitely get some money on.