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24 Apr 11
19:24
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Date Joined:
25 Jun 08
Hi All,
Ive been away from the forums for a few months gathering some stats!.
I have found a sport which i feel i have a slight edge in. The liquidity is very low and the system involves a slight Martingale method.
Basically, i place 2 bets, the first is a back at varying odds between 3.6 - 5.0 and the other is a lay between 1.15 - 1.28, my aim is to increase my bank by 1% per winning bet (so with a £1000 bank i am aiming to win £10 per winning bet), if bet 1 loses i increase the stakes to cover any losses.
I was wondering if there was a way that i could create this on an excel spreadsheet, just looking for anyone that has knowledge of the formula's to be used!.
Back to my system, i can place on average 10-15 bets per day, i have hit a maximum of 7 consecutive losing bets and have hit 5 successive winning bets, the last 50 bets are as follows (W= Winning Bet L= Losing Bet)
WLLWWWLLLWLLLLWLLLWWWLWLWWLWLLLWLWLLWLWWLWLWLLLLLL
Can anyone help me with the staking plan for this..??
Ive been away from the forums for a few months gathering some stats!.
I have found a sport which i feel i have a slight edge in. The liquidity is very low and the system involves a slight Martingale method.
Basically, i place 2 bets, the first is a back at varying odds between 3.6 - 5.0 and the other is a lay between 1.15 - 1.28, my aim is to increase my bank by 1% per winning bet (so with a £1000 bank i am aiming to win £10 per winning bet), if bet 1 loses i increase the stakes to cover any losses.
I was wondering if there was a way that i could create this on an excel spreadsheet, just looking for anyone that has knowledge of the formula's to be used!.
Back to my system, i can place on average 10-15 bets per day, i have hit a maximum of 7 consecutive losing bets and have hit 5 successive winning bets, the last 50 bets are as follows (W= Winning Bet L= Losing Bet)
WLLWWWLLLWLLLLWLLLWWWLWLWWLWLLLWLWLLWLWWLWLWLLLLLL
Can anyone help me with the staking plan for this..??
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try googling the staking machine ,it as all sorts of different methods.
Cheers guys, will have a look at the staking machine.
on the right hand side of the site page you can click on each diff one and it shows you what it is.
Im not sure which one would help me though as i am backing and laying within a single bet.
Staking plans don't work, as you it finishes
up you are betting on how the sequence of
results pan out.
up you are betting on how the sequence of
results pan out.
'The liquidity is very low and the system involves a slight Martingale method'
why does that sentence just worry me?!
why does that sentence just worry me?!
Forget it.
All staking plans only come down to a number of bets at different level stakes.
If you are doubling up for instance your plan will still amount to a number of bets at a level stake of 2 units and another number of bets at a level stake of 4 units etc.
You are relying on the higher level stakes showing a profit to cover the losses on the lower level stakes. Obviously this is nonsense if all your bets are from the same selection source.
Unfortunately the killer with all staking systems is the inevitable losing run which is always round the corner.
All staking plans only come down to a number of bets at different level stakes.
If you are doubling up for instance your plan will still amount to a number of bets at a level stake of 2 units and another number of bets at a level stake of 4 units etc.
You are relying on the higher level stakes showing a profit to cover the losses on the lower level stakes. Obviously this is nonsense if all your bets are from the same selection source.
Unfortunately the killer with all staking systems is the inevitable losing run which is always round the corner.
Hi - if it helps
first you need to know your likely losing run
in excel put in LOG(A1)/(LOG(1-A2)*-1)
where A1 is number of events (suggest at least 1000)
A2 = your actual strike rate.
Your strike rate must be greater the average odds you bet at
e.g if you have a 40% strike you must have odds greater than 6/4 e.g >(100/2.5)
Take the longest losing run, double it and then divide your bank by the result = your stake. e.g losing run of 10 = 10 x 2 = 20 so use 5% of your bank at the stake.
Then buy your self a wheelbarrow.
first you need to know your likely losing run
in excel put in LOG(A1)/(LOG(1-A2)*-1)
where A1 is number of events (suggest at least 1000)
A2 = your actual strike rate.
Your strike rate must be greater the average odds you bet at
e.g if you have a 40% strike you must have odds greater than 6/4 e.g >(100/2.5)
Take the longest losing run, double it and then divide your bank by the result = your stake. e.g losing run of 10 = 10 x 2 = 20 so use 5% of your bank at the stake.
Then buy your self a wheelbarrow.
All goes well until the longest losing run one day becomes 22 and wipes you out.
True, but hopefully after 10 likley losers you might put the brakes on LOL also 5% of the bank means at least you wont go bust.
What usually happens is that the punter throws the towel in or starts chasing the losses. Staking plans are ok on paper but very few have the discipline or courage to see them through when things go wrong as inevitably they do.
I have just averaged out that over my last 100 bets, my average back bet odds were 4.43 and my average lay odds were 1.23.
My strike rate (on a combination of the above back and lay bet) is 43%, the longest losing bet was 8 bets (recently).
Can someone help me with totting up whether this could work in the long run at the odds provided...
My strike rate (on a combination of the above back and lay bet) is 43%, the longest losing bet was 8 bets (recently).
Can someone help me with totting up whether this could work in the long run at the odds provided...
Over the last 652 bets, i have a strike rate of 41.26%.
Unfortunately i do not have historical BF odds for some of these bets so am unsure what the average Back. Lay odds would be within the combination bet.
I still feel that having 7 losing bets on the bounce is a very slim chance, having over 10 i would believe to be nearer impossible!
Unfortunately i do not have historical BF odds for some of these bets so am unsure what the average Back. Lay odds would be within the combination bet.
I still feel that having 7 losing bets on the bounce is a very slim chance, having over 10 i would believe to be nearer impossible!
You say that 7 losing bets is a slim chance and over 10 nearer impossible but you recently had a run of 8. The losing run which breaks you always seems impossible, unrealistic and more important psychologically unfair.
To put things in perspective the longest consecutive colour (near enough evens) at roulette is 27 and
The longest consecutive single number (36-1) is believed to be 7.
If you think you've an edge run it for 1000 bets at level stakes and if you're on top at the end you're probably finding value which is what it's all about.
As Lex says above
Your strike rate must be greater than the average odds you bet at
e.g if you have a 40% strike you must have odds greater than 6/4 e.g >(100/2.5)
To put things in perspective the longest consecutive colour (near enough evens) at roulette is 27 and
The longest consecutive single number (36-1) is believed to be 7.
If you think you've an edge run it for 1000 bets at level stakes and if you're on top at the end you're probably finding value which is what it's all about.
As Lex says above
Your strike rate must be greater than the average odds you bet at
e.g if you have a 40% strike you must have odds greater than 6/4 e.g >(100/2.5)
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