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Given that Betfair must now admit that they are, like all exchanges, unable to ensure 100% up time, I think it is imperative that they introduce some modifications to the rules of in-play markets.
As has been pointed out before, while many of the customers suffer massively when the outages occur - for me, it is by the far the biggest risk I face in my betting - Betfair themselves will, to some extent, benefit. Although they will miss out on the commission made from some of the bets that would have been matched if the exchange hadn't been down, the fact that lots of traders will unintentionally end up holding very one-sided positions at the settlement of the relevant market means that Betfair makes far more commission from these customers than they would have if those traders had evened up their positions.
What this means, then, is that in the current circumstances Betfair has, to a small extent perhaps, a vested interest in having the exchange go down (maybe just for certain critical brief periods which prevent traders from evening up their positions).
The only rational solution to this uncomfortable situation is either for all bets to be voided in the case of an in-play market experiencing more than a certain %age of down time, or for Betfair to introduce a separate category of bet type: bet valid only if the market actually goes in-play (for more than a certain %age of the normal time, perhaps).
If, for one, am writing to my account manager about this, and I urge all other traders with a similar interest to do the same.
As has been pointed out before, while many of the customers suffer massively when the outages occur - for me, it is by the far the biggest risk I face in my betting - Betfair themselves will, to some extent, benefit. Although they will miss out on the commission made from some of the bets that would have been matched if the exchange hadn't been down, the fact that lots of traders will unintentionally end up holding very one-sided positions at the settlement of the relevant market means that Betfair makes far more commission from these customers than they would have if those traders had evened up their positions.
What this means, then, is that in the current circumstances Betfair has, to a small extent perhaps, a vested interest in having the exchange go down (maybe just for certain critical brief periods which prevent traders from evening up their positions).
The only rational solution to this uncomfortable situation is either for all bets to be voided in the case of an in-play market experiencing more than a certain %age of down time, or for Betfair to introduce a separate category of bet type: bet valid only if the market actually goes in-play (for more than a certain %age of the normal time, perhaps).
If, for one, am writing to my account manager about this, and I urge all other traders with a similar interest to do the same.
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I agree with this approach Contrarian. It was discussed during the last outage and would seem relatively simple to introduce - there is already the option to do a "keep bet" etc, they could just add a few more options at the bet placement stage - "cancel if outage", "keep if outage", etc. But I don't think they like the concept as it implies there might be future outages and obviously there wont be now that they have sorted it all out! [;)]
If you think further you'll realise it isn't simple at all
Betfair can't accept the liability so your bets could only be matched against other users that chose the same option.
You wouldn't be able to identify bets in the market that you could definitely match with so you wouldn't even know whether to place a bet. Placing such a bet into the market would be bizarre - there could be bets being matched all around by normal users while yours just sits there!
If you wanted to see the available "cancel if outage" liquidity then betfair would have to segregate all bets and basically be operating a dual market. A separate market for traders is unlikely to appeal to many traders.
You wouldn't be able to identify bets in the market that you could definitely match with so you wouldn't even know whether to place a bet. Placing such a bet into the market would be bizarre - there could be bets being matched all around by normal users while yours just sits there!
If you wanted to see the available "cancel if outage" liquidity then betfair would have to segregate all bets and basically be operating a dual market. A separate market for traders is unlikely to appeal to many traders.
Fred - it would be simple for bets that were unmatched at the point of the outage (which is my primary concern as at the moment they sit their waiting to be hoovered by fastest finger first or people with the best/quickest access). With regard to bets that have been matched at the point of outage - I accept that is more complicated.
However they have a bookmaking licence and I believe they should have some "skin in the game" when they are unable to sustain a stable platform. IMO it might be just the kind of incentive required to deliver stability! The current set up where customers get to hold all of the liability and they get to publish an apology for the inconvenience is clearly not an incentive to improve. Some outages might see them profit, others might see them lose - but the customer would have some options!
However they have a bookmaking licence and I believe they should have some "skin in the game" when they are unable to sustain a stable platform. IMO it might be just the kind of incentive required to deliver stability! The current set up where customers get to hold all of the liability and they get to publish an apology for the inconvenience is clearly not an incentive to improve. Some outages might see them profit, others might see them lose - but the customer would have some options!
Betfair couldn't possibly accept the liability - it would actually incentivise those people holding EV- positions that might get cancelled to try to destabilise the platform.
Fred,
Yes, you're right that the new bet category I was suggesting would require segregated markets (as The Management says, his suggested category wouldn't require this).
In a way, though, the idea of segregated markets doesn't seem such a bad one. Position-takers and in-play traders have such different requirements that it almost seems natural to do this. If I place a bet before kick off in the expectation that the price will move in the first few minutes of the game, say, my requirements and interests are entirely different from someone merely wanting to take a position on how things will be at the end of the match. There is just no way that Betfair can accommodate the needs of the trader without either voiding all bets in the case of an outage, or splitting the market up in this way.
Yes, you're right that the new bet category I was suggesting would require segregated markets (as The Management says, his suggested category wouldn't require this).
In a way, though, the idea of segregated markets doesn't seem such a bad one. Position-takers and in-play traders have such different requirements that it almost seems natural to do this. If I place a bet before kick off in the expectation that the price will move in the first few minutes of the game, say, my requirements and interests are entirely different from someone merely wanting to take a position on how things will be at the end of the match. There is just no way that Betfair can accommodate the needs of the trader without either voiding all bets in the case of an outage, or splitting the market up in this way.
it would actually incentivise those people holding EV- positions that might get cancelled to try to destabilise the platform
Bayes,
Is it really that easy for someone to do that?
Surely BFs competitors would be doing it all the time if they could.
Bayes,
Is it really that easy for someone to do that?
Surely BFs competitors would be doing it all the time if they could.
Despite betfair's warts I like the status quo. I never bet more than I'm willing to lose so I never have an issue with outages.
The Managements "cancel unmatched on outage" is a good option. Quantifying what counts as an outage is a different matter though!
The Managements "cancel unmatched on outage" is a good option. Quantifying what counts as an outage is a different matter though!
Bayes. 23 Apr 11 13:27
Betfair couldn't possibly accept the liability - it would actually incentivise those people holding EV- positions that might get cancelled to try to destabilise the platform.
Technology is not my strong suit - but I would have thought that anybody with the inclination and the capability to destabilise the BF platform would find it was much easier and that it would leave much less of an audit trail to destabilise a set of floodlights if the match was going against them!
Betfair couldn't possibly accept the liability - it would actually incentivise those people holding EV- positions that might get cancelled to try to destabilise the platform.
Technology is not my strong suit - but I would have thought that anybody with the inclination and the capability to destabilise the BF platform would find it was much easier and that it would leave much less of an audit trail to destabilise a set of floodlights if the match was going against them!
Simple rule is do not place a bet with a bookmaker like Betfair unless you really want that bet. Betfair is not a trading platform it is a platform to place bets against other punters.
Betfair is not a trading platform it is a platform to place bets against other punters.
These two are not mutually exclusive. Trading is placing a bet against another punter.
Anyway, Betfair themselves implicitly encourage trading - see their Help & Learning section:
What is Trading?
Trading is one of the best and most unique things about Betfair. Trading is having more than one bet in a market; seeking to improve your position or lock in a profit on all possible outcomes.
For an example, you have layed a selection first, and then backed the same selection soon after at a higher price, guaranteeing a profit whichever result occurs. This is what most customers call a Green Book because all possible outcomes show a profit. On top of that, your liability is now zero, meaning there are no funds tied up from your account, so you can place more bets on other markets.
When trading, you want to lay at a low price and back at a higher price. Use the Predictive Profit & Loss (P&L) or ‘What If?’ function (click on ‘Options’ above each market once you’ve logged in) to do the calculations for you.
Think of it like buying a house at one price, then selling it later at a higher price. Live sport is perfect for trading; this is why many events at Betfair match far more bets in-play than before the event began.
and so have a responsibility to traders to allow them a decent trading platform.
These two are not mutually exclusive. Trading is placing a bet against another punter.
Anyway, Betfair themselves implicitly encourage trading - see their Help & Learning section:
What is Trading?
Trading is one of the best and most unique things about Betfair. Trading is having more than one bet in a market; seeking to improve your position or lock in a profit on all possible outcomes.
For an example, you have layed a selection first, and then backed the same selection soon after at a higher price, guaranteeing a profit whichever result occurs. This is what most customers call a Green Book because all possible outcomes show a profit. On top of that, your liability is now zero, meaning there are no funds tied up from your account, so you can place more bets on other markets.
When trading, you want to lay at a low price and back at a higher price. Use the Predictive Profit & Loss (P&L) or ‘What If?’ function (click on ‘Options’ above each market once you’ve logged in) to do the calculations for you.
Think of it like buying a house at one price, then selling it later at a higher price. Live sport is perfect for trading; this is why many events at Betfair match far more bets in-play than before the event began.
and so have a responsibility to traders to allow them a decent trading platform.
Do they not have skin in the game at the moment?
What happens when someone has selected a 'take sp' lay and the site has been down for a long time b/f the race? Whose money is the lay matching? Are they just pooling bets and assigning SPs that way? Or are they determining them w/ ref. to industry SP?
What happens when someone has selected a 'take sp' lay and the site has been down for a long time b/f the race? Whose money is the lay matching? Are they just pooling bets and assigning SPs that way? Or are they determining them w/ ref. to industry SP?
I thought traders were all professionals whose income came from here. If their market was segregated they wouldn`t be able to take money off muggs like me shirley ?
I have no idea how you got that idea, salmon spray. Some traders win, some lose. Exactly like some gamblers win, some lose. It's just that traders get affected far more by outrages then gamblers. Given that Betfair actively encourages them (see post by Contrarian above), it is simply unacceptable that they then just say "tough" every time it happens.
The commission free offer Betfair provided last time was a step in the right direction, although I think it was little more than a token gesture.
Refunding commission on all events for an entire day would be more in line with the severity of the outages. Alternatively, Betfair could refund all commission for markets affected by outages, thereby removing the potential conflict of interest.
Refunding commission on all events for an entire day would be more in line with the severity of the outages. Alternatively, Betfair could refund all commission for markets affected by outages, thereby removing the potential conflict of interest.
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