General Betting
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I hesitate before starting a thread like this, but I posted something similar when my Betfair account hit £100k and it was interesting to hear the views of other long-term punters. It's also good practice to pause and reflect on your gambling from time to time, and this seems like an opportune moment.
I began betting seriously in January 2004. Prior to that, I'd used my Betfair account to experiment with and to have fun with. But I realised that I could make decent profit from what I was doing and wanted to pit my wits against other punters.
My profit figures since then have been:
2004 20,003.81
2005 31,407.24
2006 52,316.70
2007 45,490.42
2008 10,656.92
2009 14,042.02
2010 7,248.54
2011 19,000.00 (approximately, so far)
I bet part-time. I'm lucky to have a day job that allows me flexibility. I can work mornings/evenings/weekends and spend a fair chunk of the afternoon here. My day job has nothing to do with sport or gambling and that's a huge benefit. The contrast is perfect.
When I first started, my approach was to find as many edges as possible. I'd bet on several sports in several ways. However, close inspection of my records showed that only one kind of betting, based around certain horse racing markets, was consistently profitable. I therefore took the view that exploiting one edge in a systematic way was preferable to constantly searching for lots of betting opportunities. Sometimes I see clear value on non-racing markets, but I don't take it. I make enough from what I do.
I built my own bank before I started. Just a few thousand pounds in case I got off to a bad start. These days I keep about £15k to hand to cover a losing run.
Naturally, you need discipline to make this game work. But after a while discipline becomes habit. I used to take the view that having nine or ten profit-making months per year was fine, but then I realised that this kind of thinking was making me complacent. I now do all I can to finish every month in profit, and this month will (hopefully) be my 11th consecutive profit-making one.
Some days, you do everything right, and are happy with all of your bets, and still lose. They're the hardest days. You have no-one to blame and no guarantee that the same thing won't happen again tomorrow.
I'm a layer. I take views on how horses will perform and try to lay at the lowest possible price. I have no interest in inside information. Forming my own opinion is part of the pleasure.
Occasionally, I get hit by a well-organised, well-executed coup. It's a hazard of the game. But plenty of gambles go astray too.
It's not the money that motivates me. My profits have gone mostly into mortgage over-payments. I support several charities and am closely involved with local politics. I drive a cheap, second-hand car and take my holidays in Wales. I'd hate to be gambling to fund a lifestyle.
The best analogy I have is probably with a computer game. I want to beat my previous record and accumulate as many points as possible. The profit is a nice bonus - I don't need to fear redundancy; I may be able to retire early - but that's not what drives me.
Trying to stay focused, long-term, can be tricky. It helps that I love horse racing and would happily follow the sport without any vested interest at all. I make sure I take my annual holiday entitlement from Betfair and usually have a long break after a particularly good or bad run.
Experience is great tutor, if only you allow it to be. Instinct tells you to forget all about your bad days, but it's only by analysing your mistakes that you avoid repeating them.
I know other punters make more than me, and I know that I could make more by going full-time or by raising my stakes. But I also know that many more punters make much less, and that some are chronic loss-makers. I often worry where my profit has come from, and whether the person who's lost can afford it.
Gambling is a socially useless activity, and long-term, high-stakes betting can suck the soul from your eyes. You need other things going on, other loves. Success won't satisfy you, but if you're satisfied already the success comes more easily.
Sorry to pontificate like a bad Dalai Lama. There are lots of ways to make profit at gambling, and many approaches will be much better than the one I have. If I make it to £300k, I'll be back to annoy you again.
I began betting seriously in January 2004. Prior to that, I'd used my Betfair account to experiment with and to have fun with. But I realised that I could make decent profit from what I was doing and wanted to pit my wits against other punters.
My profit figures since then have been:
2004 20,003.81
2005 31,407.24
2006 52,316.70
2007 45,490.42
2008 10,656.92
2009 14,042.02
2010 7,248.54
2011 19,000.00 (approximately, so far)
I bet part-time. I'm lucky to have a day job that allows me flexibility. I can work mornings/evenings/weekends and spend a fair chunk of the afternoon here. My day job has nothing to do with sport or gambling and that's a huge benefit. The contrast is perfect.
When I first started, my approach was to find as many edges as possible. I'd bet on several sports in several ways. However, close inspection of my records showed that only one kind of betting, based around certain horse racing markets, was consistently profitable. I therefore took the view that exploiting one edge in a systematic way was preferable to constantly searching for lots of betting opportunities. Sometimes I see clear value on non-racing markets, but I don't take it. I make enough from what I do.
I built my own bank before I started. Just a few thousand pounds in case I got off to a bad start. These days I keep about £15k to hand to cover a losing run.
Naturally, you need discipline to make this game work. But after a while discipline becomes habit. I used to take the view that having nine or ten profit-making months per year was fine, but then I realised that this kind of thinking was making me complacent. I now do all I can to finish every month in profit, and this month will (hopefully) be my 11th consecutive profit-making one.
Some days, you do everything right, and are happy with all of your bets, and still lose. They're the hardest days. You have no-one to blame and no guarantee that the same thing won't happen again tomorrow.
I'm a layer. I take views on how horses will perform and try to lay at the lowest possible price. I have no interest in inside information. Forming my own opinion is part of the pleasure.
Occasionally, I get hit by a well-organised, well-executed coup. It's a hazard of the game. But plenty of gambles go astray too.
It's not the money that motivates me. My profits have gone mostly into mortgage over-payments. I support several charities and am closely involved with local politics. I drive a cheap, second-hand car and take my holidays in Wales. I'd hate to be gambling to fund a lifestyle.
The best analogy I have is probably with a computer game. I want to beat my previous record and accumulate as many points as possible. The profit is a nice bonus - I don't need to fear redundancy; I may be able to retire early - but that's not what drives me.
Trying to stay focused, long-term, can be tricky. It helps that I love horse racing and would happily follow the sport without any vested interest at all. I make sure I take my annual holiday entitlement from Betfair and usually have a long break after a particularly good or bad run.
Experience is great tutor, if only you allow it to be. Instinct tells you to forget all about your bad days, but it's only by analysing your mistakes that you avoid repeating them.
I know other punters make more than me, and I know that I could make more by going full-time or by raising my stakes. But I also know that many more punters make much less, and that some are chronic loss-makers. I often worry where my profit has come from, and whether the person who's lost can afford it.
Gambling is a socially useless activity, and long-term, high-stakes betting can suck the soul from your eyes. You need other things going on, other loves. Success won't satisfy you, but if you're satisfied already the success comes more easily.
Sorry to pontificate like a bad Dalai Lama. There are lots of ways to make profit at gambling, and many approaches will be much better than the one I have. If I make it to £300k, I'll be back to annoy you again.
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This is the first post I have read that I can appreciate this 'player' has a proper edge
I find the statement 'Naturally, you need discipline to make this game work. But after a while discipline becomes habit', totally true I realise this thread will be barracked by losers on this site, but here goes.... Unlike you Dr J, I'm a backer and I have a similar profitability to you, over 9 years Before this thread I would never divulge my rationale, but there are several elements to your post that I can concur with fwiw in the early days (although overall fruitful) I literally threw thousands away by being too impulsive - but without that experience, I dont think I could make it pay today. again like you, I attempt to make a profit each day to my set strategy - I'd say 95% of the time this works. However, it is considerably harder to 'get on' and its a case of 'grinding out' a small profit This year has proved hardest of all - but when I considered that this 'edge' would not last more than 6 months initially - then I am very thankful that it is has lasted 9 years |
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Interesting post. I must admit I personally like the challenge and interest in betting on all sorts of sports - which of course may well be my ultimate downfall. What you have written does make me think about focusing on (in my case) simply laying horses.
Congratulations on your achievements and roll on the next £100K |
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Sounds a credible post, stats are interesting, 45k in 2007 and 7k last year, why was that??
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Nice read OP
I particularly relate to this bit - Naturally, you need discipline to make this game work. But after a while discipline becomes habit. I always struggled with discpline. Now it's just 2nd nature and the desire to chase or tilt doesn't even enter my head. I'm also a big advocate of specialisation. |
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I won't go through the discipline debate again, we all know where each other stands on that, but the specialisation one is something that fascinates me as I change my mind on a regular basis.
I suspect I'm a bit of a strange case as I almost specialise in not specialising... that is to say that I've become quite adept at knowing where to go with a new idea in pretty much any market as long as it's not too mainstream where I'm up against the specialists. (Soccer match odds for instance) The upside of doing things how I do is that there's always something to bet on, it's unlikely I'll lose all my edges overnight (Legistlation or other similar nightmares aside) and it keeps me relatively fresh. The downside is that my edges are much slimmer than they would be otherwise, I have a tendency to work stupid numbers of hours even by gambler standards and obviously there are higher chances that I miss something important. I also find that I get into position where I feel like I'm last minute cramming all the time. One event ends, another starts. I often forget who won last year's world championship/masters/whatever simply because I haven't had time to retain the most basic of facts. I think that as a general rule to someone starting out I'd recommend specialising, but I'm quite happy to be jack of all trades, master of none... although as I get a base for many different things, I often try to build on those bases and so one day I might end up being particularly good at one (or more? Can I dream?) specific market. |
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nice post Dr J.
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Thanks for the replies, all of which are very interesting.
To follow up on a couple of points: when I considered that this 'edge' would not last more than 6 months initially - then I am very thankful that it is has lasted 9 years I love this kind of pessimism. Some gamblers take the view that 'well, I used to be good at this game and you don't just become rubbish overnight', but I tend to think that past performance counts for very little. It's sobering to think that the profits could end abruptly, and it also makes you appreciate everything more. 45k in 2007 and 7k last year, why was that?? Fatherhood. I suspect I'm a bit of a strange case as I almost specialise in not specialising... I very nearly went down this route too, Lori, and I know that many successful gamblers do pride themselves on being able to spot value across many different types of sport/market. For me, the main problem is the one you mention - time. It used to be the case that I could log-in at almost any time of the day and there'd be something to punt on. These days, I select my races first thing in the morning, bet on them intermittently, and switch off my computer when the last one finishes. It definitely suits me better. |
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good stuff Dr J
Until about 4 years ago I used to exclusively trade on NFL,NBA and MLB which covers the year. But with the birth of child number 2 I looked for ways to trade events during the day so I don't have to stay up until 5am. Now I cover approx 12 sportsand dip in and out when it's convenient I find the variety keeps me sharp and (snooker aside) I still enjoy it |
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Good read I think that sometimes people reach a certain level then stay on that plateau the important thing is to keep pushing to raise the bar.
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Well done, that's quite an achievement, especially for a part-timer.
Many of your ideas are very different from mine. It's not the money that motivates me. My profits have gone mostly into mortgage over-payments. I support several charities and am closely involved with local politics. I drive a cheap, second-hand car and take my holidays in Wales. I'd hate to be gambling to fund a lifestyle. The money is a primary motivator for me, I enjoy the process, and also view it like a computer game, but if there was no cash involved, I'd be doing something else. I'm in a different situation though, as I haven't been employed for a couple of years now. I've kept my living expenses very low in order to build assets/reinvest profit, but do intend to start 'spending more' in the near future. I bet mainly on football, and started out trading the Total Goals markets back in 06/07 when there was a 1% comm deal on this market. Then gradually branched out to the other football markets, studying how they relate to each other. I know other punters make more than me, and I know that I could make more by going full-time or by raising my stakes. But I also know that many more punters make much less, and that some are chronic loss-makers. I often worry where my profit has come from, and whether the person who's lost can afford it. That's what I did: go full-time and increase stakes (by not withdrawing and letting profits compound). So far I've made a profit every year, and every year the profit has increased; although the rate of increase has slowed. Gambling is a socially useless activity, and long-term, high-stakes betting can suck the soul from your eyes. You need other things going on, other loves. Success won't satisfy you, but if you're satisfied already the success comes more easily. I believe that competition among winners leads to better prices for 'fun bettors', in the sense that if I'm not there offering to lay at 10, another winner trying to lay at 9.8 could get matched, so the losers benefit. |
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brilliant read , im still learning the job , probabley still a couple of years to go , im a layer also , purely on football , after about 4 years now just about got the discipline under wraps BUT am also on the look out not to be complacent ,
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A great post DJ - there so much negative tripe on these forums. I'm sure many winning players never get around to exposing themselves or their story.
You seem to have found a good balance between Betfair & the day job - the greater meaning of making profit here - I can readily identify with most you say. I therefore took the view that exploiting one edge in a systematic way was preferable to constantly searching for lots of betting opportunities. Sometimes I see clear value on non-racing markets, but I don't take it. I make enough from what I do. - I can certainly identify with this having drifted from an original interest in racing to taking in various markets. I'm now back fully focused on my first love racing & enjoying Betfair more and more. Punting apart its a great sport that like you I'd happily follow - have done for long periods - without feeling the need to punt. Of course we all different and there's no right or wrong way to go about things & you acknowledge that. I have no interest in inside information. Forming my own opinion is part of the pleasure- agree totally with this. Having spent a number of years quite close to racing in the 80's I can vouch for the fact that inside info is not necessarily the holy grail some people believe it to be, neither are tipsters or other peoples opinions. Far better to form your own opinion and feel the self satisfaction from doing that. I remember the days yu couldn't get a decent bet on without going to the racecourse. A place yu had to go to view racing as there wasn't such a thing as a video replay. A day never passes when I don't marvel at the technology we now have at our disposal and the opportunity it brings. It can be done! |
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I remember the days before every sodding race was televised, when going to the racecourse with a pair of binoculars was enough to give you an edge and a living ... and fresh air.
No wasting every waking hour of your life in a darkened room having to plough through video replays of every single race; because if you don't, then the unknown people who match your bets on here will. I remember when you could make a living by going to the racecourse and betting in thousands, if you wanted, against men who priced up according to half an hour spent flicking through the Sporting Life in the car park. Now you're lucky if you spot a tenner available at a value price on here, before every shrewdie with a PC on the planet dives in for it. Five minutes before the off, of course, you can get hundreds on, but at the correct price by then, and minus a commission deduction that is utterly scandalous. If you're on 4% commission on here (i.e 20% discount), and at the end of the year you find you have a net loss of, say, £6,630, do you know how much commission you have paid Betfair for the privilege? The answer's £6,630. How the hell is sitting alone indoors every day on those terms better than the fun and the excitement of the racecourse before Betfair arrived to mark the bookies' cards? |
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racingguru has hit the nail on the head - a job that lets me bet and study form all day - if only !!!
Still, this is a very good thread. |
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Shouldn't be to difficult to find a job that will let you study form during work hour. Only problem though is that it would probably have to be the late evening/night shift.
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I believe that competition among winners leads to better prices for 'fun bettors', in the sense that if I'm not there offering to lay at 10, another winner trying to lay at 9.8 could get matched, so the losers benefit.
That's an interesting way of looking at it, Mr Investor. Thank you. One question I have is that if you have work and this is additional income how comes you have not stepped it up as it is obvious you have an edge or are the markets you deal with not so liquid at the time you have an edge etc. I have increased my stakes slightly over the years but I don't want to put myself in a position where, if a lengthy losing streak did hit, I'd be losing money faster than I'd won it in the past. There's also a liquidity issue, as you say - you can't keep increasing your stakes without compromising on price. As I mentioned above, I don't really need to win more money than I'm already winning. This game isn't like tournament poker, where you can't stop until every chip on the table is yours. You need to protect and nurture your edge, imo, not go hunting for ways to win more and more. |
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well done,best thread ive read
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Well done Dr J.. a good post.. keep it up.. after a lot of good and bad experiences discipline is definitely the key to long term success
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nice post
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great read
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45k in 2007 and 7k last year, why was that??
Fatherhood You paid £38k for a baby? Seriously, a great post. |
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Dr J only gave us one teasing hint of the edge which delivers these fantastic, part-time profits, but it was enough to convince me he's the genuine article:
I take views on how horses will perform and try to lay at the lowest possible price. With that depth of originality and lateral thinking he clearly has an edge which leaves the rest of us with no chance. |
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Good evening Dr J, nice to hear from you, never expected to read a thread like this from you. As somebody who has fairly regularly commented on your on going thread on the HR forum i feel that i'm in as good a position as anyone on this forum to vouch for your integrity and remember you commenting about the time you were becoming a dad and consequently had less time to post.
Anyway nice to see that you've made a few quid over the years but also you probably realise the value of holding down a job at the same time as your recent years profits alone wouldn't have supported you and your family. I've always been a big advocate of having a proper income away from betting as it takes the pressure off having to win, like a salesman who has a basic salary and doesn't have to rely on commision alone. Funnily enough i was always under the impression that you were primarily a backer, for me the excitement and pleasure of horse racing is backing the horse that many judges haven't spotted as with your "Value" thread, don't mind laying but doesn't give the same satisfaction to my mind. I expect the premium charge has also eaten into your profits over the last year or two, anyway nice to hear from you again and most of all enjoy being a dad. |
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Very good and honest post Dr J. If you don't mind me asking, have you had to pay any Premium Charge ?
If not, are you close to paying it ? What's your total charges % ? |
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Great thread
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Good effort.
Just curious, if your figs were 10x as big, would u have posted ? If someone was to post, £2m in 8 yrs, would they be wasting their time (and shud prob be on a beach anyway) ? |
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What are you saying borrowed time? If you were making £250k a year you'd wait until you had a couple of million and just retire?
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I think the money is largely irrelevent (at that level). Its as Dr J comments,
a game, and u have to keep yourself doing something - otherwise, people might talk. Besides, £2m sounds ok, but, over 8 yrs, there would be a lot of expenses. Maybe, 500k might be left .. depends on your lifestyle, and that of your families. |
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The Investor Joined: 05 Jun 06
Replies: 4682 22 Apr 11 18:11 What are you saying borrowed time? If you were making £250k a year you'd wait until you had a couple of million and just retire? I'd probably push for 3-4 million but then I'd certainly pack it in for good. |
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What would you do instead Lori?
To me it's quite significant that the first couple of years of making peanuts (relative to now) have given me the experience and increased funds needed to make a lot more money. If earnings grow you don't just give up the prospect of making x a year, but also the prospect of making many multiples of x in future years. |
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hi dr j an interesting post,ive been on here several years and done me b0110c ks many a time so im quite sure youve had some off me,if your willing to let me know your edge me email address is grabanotherpair@aol.com ill gladly pay ya many thanks keep up the good work
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macrider, I don't laugh at many posts on this
forum but I did at yours. |
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Never going to happen macrider. Besides, I reckon his real edge is you, and others like you.
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A great post, and one that I can identify with in many ways. Some good comments here too. Surely the issue of when you would quit isn't unique to betting but to any line of work. You weigh up the loss of income against the benefits of time being your own, but for many people, work is actually enjoyable and more of a hobby with benefits. Sports betting would likely fit into that category more than a production line job! The older I get, the less real work I have to do, and while on the surface retiring would be nice, as of right now the benefits of a decent salary outweigh sitting at home all day. I wrote a post on my blog about the OP if anyone is interested. Green All Over.
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I like this thread.
Certainly a different perspective on things and some good lessons in the other posts for those still learning the ropes. Keep it up! |
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I'd be off exploring rain forests and Antarctica and suchlike before I get too old Investor. I'm greedy enough to want "a few million" (Not that I'll ever get it, but it's important to have a plan just in case I think), but have no desire to have lots of millions at the cost of extra time.
If I were guaranteed as much food, drink, travel and entry fees to attractions as I wanted to my dying day, I'd probably give up any form of income right now in return. |
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Good evening Dr J, nice to hear from you, never expected to read a thread like this from you.
Hi stewarts and very best wishes to you. I've always been a big advocate of having a proper income away from betting as it takes the pressure off having to win, like a salesman who has a basic salary and doesn't have to rely on commision alone. Indeed, and I'm very aware of how fortunate and privileged I am to have a job that allows me the flexibilty to punt. I'd imagine that being a pro (i.e. having no income other than gambling) leaves one in a very different mindset. Not only can I afford to have barren months, I can afford to have losing months. Funnily enough i was always under the impression that you were primarily a backer, for me the excitement and pleasure of horse racing is backing the horse that many judges haven't spotted as with your "Value" thread, Backing is definitely more exciting and pleasurable than laying. But I'm better at laying. It's as simple as that really. I expect the premium charge has also eaten into your profits over the last year or two, Someone else mentioned this, but the truth is, no, I've never been asked to pay a penny in Premium Charge. The reason is that I probably have enough losing bets to dodge the charge. Last year, for example, I paid about £12k in commission. The sum of all my winning bets (after this £12k deduction) was £327k. The sum of all my losing bets was £320k. Thanks for the good wishes. I seem to recall that you're a Villa fan, so best of luck against Stoke tomorrow. |
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To briefly respond to some other comments:
You paid £38k for a baby?  Dr J only gave us one teasing hint of the edge which delivers these fantastic, part-time profits, but it was enough to convince me he's the genuine article: I take views on how horses will perform and try to lay at the lowest possible price. I don't mean to be cryptic, but I'm sure you'll understand my reticence... FWIW, most horse races I eliminate immediately. There's only a minority I'm prepared to read up on. I then start to think about ways in which the race might be wrongly approached by other punters. I tend to value long-term performance over recent form (whereas I suspect many punters do the opposite). If I don't find an edge after a little while, I eliminate that race too. Dr J - Was interested to find out a little bit more about your time dedication relative to your profit levels over the years. For me the full time years [last 2] yielded 33.7k per annum versus the part-time years of 15.6k per annum [previous 5 before that]. Has your profit been directly been proportional to your effort or is profit more driven by other factors? Your profits seem remarkably correlated to time investment, which is impressive and reassuring. I've never been full-time, but my part-time profits are definitely affected by luck (by which I mean that even a relatively profitable approach is statistically certain to encounter long periods of infertility) and by extraneous factors, such as pressures arising from work, family, etc. Also I was interested in your comment "I take views on how horses will perform and try to lay at the lowest possible price". Does this include in running or just the pre-race markets? If it includes in running do you have advantageous picture feeds and or API's? If not do you see an angle in laying at pre-determined prices prices [keep bets] in running regardless of your picture feed. Technology isn't my edge. I have no advantageous picture feeds. I sometimes use the in-running markets to mitigate over-exposure, but only to very small amounts (and it's probably bad practice anyway). The later is something I've considered many times and feel I have a distinct advantage over others in knowing how many horses run but being abroad I do not have live pics and feel I'll get stitched up with fallers etc. I'd respectfully suggest that you continue not going down that route, Mr Guru. Without the fast pics, you're far too vulnerable. Good effort. Just curious, if your figs were 10x as big, would u have posted ? Probably, BT, but I don't know. Would you have believed me? hi dr j an interesting post,ive been on here several years and done me b0110c ks many a time so im quite sure youve had some off me,if your willing to let me know your edge me email address is grabanotherpair@aol.com ill gladly pay ya many thanks keep up the good work Thank you, macrider, but I'll probably pass on that offer, if you don't mind.  |