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13 Apr 11
00:34
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Date Joined:
17 May 07
How do I work out which is on average, the most profitable option and with that information, how to stake on it? I will give you the exact example I was using:
Tennis game, first player to two sets, wins.
Player 1 on the handicap, +1.5 sets is decimal odds of 3. Basically, if he wins a set at all, then the handicap wins.
Player 1 to win Set 1 is 4.6, Player 1 to win Set 2 is 4.6
So is it more profitable to bet on the handicap, or betting on both the set1/2 winner markets? Then most importantly, what would be the ideal staking option here?
Tennis game, first player to two sets, wins.
Player 1 on the handicap, +1.5 sets is decimal odds of 3. Basically, if he wins a set at all, then the handicap wins.
Player 1 to win Set 1 is 4.6, Player 1 to win Set 2 is 4.6
So is it more profitable to bet on the handicap, or betting on both the set1/2 winner markets? Then most importantly, what would be the ideal staking option here?
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Is is not dutched 4.6 and 4.6 = 2.3 which is smaller than 3.0, so the handicap is the better bet?
No because he could either lose both, win both, or win one.
your handicap bet is the same as laying player B to win 2-0.
based on set odds of 4.6 for player 1, and assuming independence (which you can't) the probability for player 2 to win 2-0 is 61.2%, so 38.8% he doesn't = 2.58.
the handicap bet appears to be better. problem is that the odds for a favourite to win 2-0 are always lower than the independent set probabilities.
based on set odds of 4.6 for player 1, and assuming independence (which you can't) the probability for player 2 to win 2-0 is 61.2%, so 38.8% he doesn't = 2.58.
the handicap bet appears to be better. problem is that the odds for a favourite to win 2-0 are always lower than the independent set probabilities.
Hello there Wicked Whisper, i'll give this a go.
It's best to look at the opposite price assuming around 100% book.
So in the first instance if player 1 is 3 to win a set then player 2 must be 1.5 to win 2-0.
In the second example if player 1 is 4.6 to win the set then player 2 must be around 1.27ish, lets say 1.275. So to win 2-0 then the price would be 1.275 x 1.275 which is around 1.62ish.
So the latter option is better. There you go, that's my thoughts, don't know if i've missed anything important.
It's best to look at the opposite price assuming around 100% book.
So in the first instance if player 1 is 3 to win a set then player 2 must be 1.5 to win 2-0.
In the second example if player 1 is 4.6 to win the set then player 2 must be around 1.27ish, lets say 1.275. So to win 2-0 then the price would be 1.275 x 1.275 which is around 1.62ish.
So the latter option is better. There you go, that's my thoughts, don't know if i've missed anything important.
If player one is 4.6 to win first set and player two handicap is 3 and if he wins one set then it is ok already then there must be sth wrong here because you could dutch these and make a profit whoever wins the first set...
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