General Betting
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I have collected some data and want to see if i have a profitable system.
I want to lay both players at a certain percentage from there starting price.
I understand that if both players are 2 then if i lay 20% lower that i would put a lay bet in for each at 1.8 say for £100 and if both are matched i would get £20 profit (less comm) and if only one was matched i would lose £80, but say the players are 1.66 & 2.5 and i want to lay them both 20% away the prices i want to lay at are 1.53 (19.7%) & 2.2 (20%)
But what amounts should i lay them for?
I want to lay both players at a certain percentage from there starting price.
I understand that if both players are 2 then if i lay 20% lower that i would put a lay bet in for each at 1.8 say for £100 and if both are matched i would get £20 profit (less comm) and if only one was matched i would lose £80, but say the players are 1.66 & 2.5 and i want to lay them both 20% away the prices i want to lay at are 1.53 (19.7%) & 2.2 (20%)
But what amounts should i lay them for?
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Replies: 8
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The dutching calculator at oddschecker will calculate the stakes for you.
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Use the "payout" button on Betfair instead of the "Liability" one when placing bets and do them to the same amount.
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Fine i see that will give me equal profit if both are matched but if only one is laid my exposure is different for instance the 1.53 lay of £117.96 would have exposure of £62.52 whereas the 2.2 lay of £82.04 would have an exposure of £98.45.
So if when im calucalting my figures if there is a run of outsiders i would be losing more. I want to set a spreadsheet where i enter the prices and regardless of the results it will calulate over a period i would be losing or winning and how much. | |||||
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To do that you're going to need to decide how you're going to stake it.
Are you going to have the same payout on each, the same liability on each, or something in the middle? If you want the same liability on each then you're going to do worse if there's a run of winning favourites in a row and you only lay those. (Because you won't win enough on the outsiders to cover it) | |||||
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I would go with the payout method because it factors in the prices.
That is, the number of outsiders over a long time should be the perfect balance for the prices you're laying. It's how the overround is calculated (If you're laying to 120% overround, you're taking 120 in bets for every 100 you're paying out... in the long run, or if you get both matched) | |||||
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