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General Betting
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Extracts from Wilshere's book in the Racing Post today. Fujiyama Crest 12/1 in the morning so he lays all he can at revised price of 4/1 and under. His reasoning being that the major firms were just reducing their liabilities because of Dettori accas etc and that the horse was still really a 12/1 plus chance to win the race. Think he done a million when it duly won.
So from a value point of view he was correct to go for it (one thing he may have overlooked was the integrity of the other jocks)?
To me overstaking seems to have been the biggest error. Ive found this myself laying in running on the horses, never be too dogmatic you may think that horse has gone off too hard or is pulling too hard but sometimes they still win.
Great line though when he goes to an evening greyhound card the same night and his in-the-dark son says "Bad start, Dad, we lost 17 quid on the first"...
So from a value point of view he was correct to go for it (one thing he may have overlooked was the integrity of the other jocks)?
To me overstaking seems to have been the biggest error. Ive found this myself laying in running on the horses, never be too dogmatic you may think that horse has gone off too hard or is pulling too hard but sometimes they still win.
Great line though when he goes to an evening greyhound card the same night and his in-the-dark son says "Bad start, Dad, we lost 17 quid on the first"...
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Wiltshire*
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I don't know the guy from Adam and from what I'm told he's a great fella however having a million pounds on a 1/2 shot (even though he thought it should have been 1/12)was reckless in the extreme, particularly as he didn't have the million quid to start with. Fellas have topped themselves for a lot less.
All credit to him for honouring the debts however although I'd take a short price there was a settlement with Coral!! |
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he forgot that even 12/1 shots do win
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Fujiyama Crest 12/1 in the morning so he lays all he can at revised price of 4/1 and under. His reasoning being that the major firms were just reducing their liabilities because of Dettori accas etc and that the horse was still really a 12/1 plus chance to win the race. Think he done a million when it duly won.
Kelly recommends to stake 65% of bank with that kind of differential between chance and price. Sounds like he staked 165% |
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Always remember I was in pub ( what's new !!!) the night before the Dettori races and got involved in a little competition with 2 other guys to see who could "tip" the winners at that meeting in every race.
On glancing at Evening Telegraph....it was the last race that stood out to me re FUJIYAMA CREST. It just looked to have many factors in favour in that distance race. So i selected that one first .....noticed after picking it DETTORI was on it. I then looked at first race and again noted DETTORI had a chance to win that one ...then looked at next race etc etc .....I concluded , telling the other 2 guys,that he had a chance to win on every ride! However, having had "quite a few " pints ....by end of night I'd forgotten about my "conclusion"....and did nothing about the races. The next day I wandered into bookies late on and saw that DETTORI had won every race........Was a wee bit annoyed I had not put on any bets other than the wee wager amongst the 3 of us....However, there were a few DETTORI "followers" really kicking themselves they had not backed his horses that day .....so I took some "sick" pleasure in their "excuses" for not backing him that day ! Was 4-1 SP a value lay in last race.......possibly, but as it was the 1 horse that "jumped out" at me the night before as likely winner, then I could not have layed it.....Had the guy ,who wrote book, been in the pub with the 3 of us the night before races...........then he would have been a "few quid " better off!   ......or would he still have layed it????? |
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Of course if something is really a 12/1 chance and it trades at 2/1 you have to lay as much as you can afford to lose, sounds like GW did more than that though
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Dettori had won six times already that day. You wd have to suspect that for the last race, the coin wd not be fair.
Otherwise, tobermory has given the right answer. |
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you would need to know his bank to say he was overstaking. The fact he was out at the dogs after suggests to me he wasnt. So million is well inflated or he has bank of 2m+
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What he didn't take into consideration was that we were in unknown
territory, that being not many jocks wanted to be the one to stop history from being made and in the circumstances 2/1 was probably a good price as only Eddery seemed interested in spoiling the party. I was running a couple of betting shops at the time and lost about 6 grand on the day, fortunately only one punter backed all 7 winners but only in singles and doubles to small stakes. I felt in a good mood as I felt I got off light. |
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one punter backed all 7 winners but only in singles and doubles
lol Ken , that punter must have wished he'd lost  Brendan i guess at a Dog Meeting he is only going to win or lose a couple of grand either way, so his son might have gone there for him with 5k or so. Never been a bookie so i don't know how much he would take to Ascot on QEII Day, but i expect it would be many multiples of that .Maybe a lot of people he bet with did so on credit and likewise didn't expect to be paid their winnings the same day. From what i have read of it before and on here he had 'a bank' of a few hundred thousand and was completely wiped out, but did pay all his clients in the end. |