What do you think Betfair will be like in 5 years time?

Will there be Americans on here by then?

Hope the Yanks see the light and lift the ban , really you'd think they'd have learned from "Prohibition" that banning a pleasurable pastime just doesn't make sense .

And do you think you'll be here using it?

Only on a part time basis.  At this stage I intend to quit full time after London 2012

Will Feck get his interface?

Not a snowball's chance in hell

Will there even be an exchange or will it all be FOBTs?

There will still be an exchange and it will still be the mainstay of the business

If there is an exchange will there be anyone in it or will it just be robots?

An exchange without robots would be good but can't see it happening.  Wish they'd ban them like poker sites do and threaten to withold their stake money in their T&C's

Will the site be swift and stable or slow and crashy?

The same as it has always been most likely

Will Betfair have diversified into new products?

Yes but every chance they will backfire

What rate will commission and PC be at?

Will depend on competition

I THINK THEY WILL EXPAND THEIR BUISNESS ,AND HAVE CHIP SHOPS ALL OVER THE WORLD ,

I think betfair will move away from the exchange model and towards being a traditonal bookmaker with shops on every high street.

why on earth would you move away from an area where you are effectively a monopoly and is synonymous with your Brand name.

bit like Ferrari moving away from sports cars.

no chance whatsoever of the yanks lifting their ban, imo.

In five years time I believe that mobile networks will have established themselves as fully fledged payment gateways/processors who will verify details/age on transaction. This could boost bets from casual punters. I'm expecting to see a landrush to get the exclusive free to access wifi channel at sporting events where smartphone users can bet without signup from phone credit using a fast locally served app/interface. I think that Betfair will be bang there in both exchange and traditional bookmaker capacity.

I suspect betfair will be seeding the markets in the not too distant future, and ultimately the lay side of the book be made up of predominately betfair money.

viva el presidente!
Date Joined: 10 Jun 06
Add contact | Send message
When: 29 Mar 11 16:00
Joined:
Date Joined: 10 Jun 06
| Topic/replies: 7,332 | Blogger: viva el presidente!'s blog
no chance whatsoever of the yanks lifting their ban, imo.

I'll back it at 1000 if you want to take that bet, seeing as you are so sure

Give me China over the USA any day of the week

Last year, some 600,000 people were arrested for gambling, while anyone who admits publicly that they need help faces the prospect of being confined to a mental hospital. Unsurprisingly, most addicts prefer to stay in a private hell of debt and despair.

It's liking sitting in a small corn field with the best corn harvester in the world.  Every year you pick corn the soil decays a little.  Meanwhile the neighbour's field is huge and has the biggest ripest corn you've ever seen.  Unable to plough your neighbour's corn you watch every year while the corn withers and dies unpicked.  TRAGIC

If you had asked the question five years ago (about bf's product offering and profits), you might have expected more of a change from what they've got now.

Their prob. is that they reached saturation quickly in the market in which they've got the best product (IR and just-before-the-off horses) and were quickly copied by incumbents in areas where their product is very competitive (esp. IR). Rather than being single-minded in pursuing the same growth in new geographical areas, they expanded sideways into games, poker etc. using the expertise of employees who did not understand the original ethos of the site.

The way to go in Asia surely has to be to become the incumbent, even the monolpoly incumbent. The tote market share in Hong Kong is down b/c of better-priced alternative products. Esp. in emerging jurisdictions like China, they shd be looking to cut a deal with the racing industry and state to operate in effect a low-margin mutuel pool.

At the moment Betfair (or rather it's customers) are the global price maker and everywhere else is the price taker. 

If it became legal to have an incumbent exchange in the far east it could become the global price maker, and Betfair the price taker.  In other words it would be curtains.

i think betfair will have a exchange office on every racecourse maybe within 10 years, going on the high street would be a big growth area, with there own games and machines, when william hill make record millions then betfair should see where they need to expand

Clydebank, bf's big prob. at the moment is that it makes the prices (or is where the prices are made) but that not every price-taker takes them. The exchange price is copied by a whole host of bookmakers, who each take their cut and pass an accurate estimate of along to customers w/ whom they've cultivated a relationship.

If bf cd reach all bettors directly (wh/ it might have to do thru some form of licensing w/ sports governing bodies and state authorities) then it wd drastically improve its position. The exchange model is the most efficient form of betting, other than exchanges are dependent on a handful of business partnerships on the lay side. Imv being licensed to run a bookmaking business and a series of totes wd sort this out.

* an accurate estimate of value

racingguru - Betfair don't need shareholder approval to seed markets, and they have already stated their intention to seed some if liquidity is not at sufficient levels.

There are two major untapped betting markets in the world: a population of 1.3 billion in China and 450 million or so in S. E. Asia, who want to bet on elite football, and 1.2 billion + on the sub-Continent who want to bet on cricket.

Betting is illegal but tolerated among the rich in both these areas.

The only genuine question for bf is how they get into these markets. As far as I understand, they are representing themselves as an operator of probity in not offering Hong Kong and Japanese horses while trying ultimately to get licensed in these areas.

The alternative wd be to suppose that fairly soon China will legislate and restrict betting and want a take of the handle. HK gets 72.5% of their tote's profits. It is plausible to assume that rather than constantly be undercut by illegal operators that can offer betting without paying a levy or license fee, Chinese racing authorities will go w/ the most efficient available betting model, which is an exchange, of which they will retain substantial ownership.

Companies like betsson have already enterted into agreements in principle w/ Chinese state companies to offer exchange betting.

If a scenario like this eventuates, the best bf can hope to be is an operator for someone else. If they cut a deal like Ecclestone has done with motor racing, they'll have done well.

I fear for their future. When do they ever solve problems like fast pictures etc? They never do anything radical just sit back and say, "bad luck that's the way it is". Same with numerous other issues brought up over the years.

Hated in the racing industry and again they could do something radical about that by trying to improve a return to the sport. But no, they sit back and do nothing.

The MD of a prominent racecourse said he was closing his BF account the other day. Extremely damaging.

As has been said above if the next 5 years are anything like the previous 5 then BF will pretty much stay standing still and it will be same old, same old in 2016 with not a lot different to 2006.

betfair's next 5 year plan imo will be following

1) Try to move to new markets: US, China, India
2) Remain an exchange but also work as conventional bookmaker so something like feck interface maybe a reality
3) downsize casino - globally online casinos are taking a hit... today 888 came up with poor results and trying to sell their casino / bingo business
5) Football will overtake horse racing , imo horse racing will be on its last legs if there are no radical changes in UK

that's a generous offer, Investor, but I'll pass.

the reason I don't think the US will ever allow exchange betting (and therefore laying) is because of the prominence of college sports in US culture, and the cultural sensitivity over anything that threatens their integrity.

if it ever started to look like a serious possibility, there would be a backlash and politicians would be falling over themselves to oppose it. it would become political poison.

viva la presidente

I'm inclined to agree with your comments about the US and the potential for exchanges.

I'm no expert on the US but as an observer who has made frequent visits (my daughter lives in NY)and I've worked with Americans most of my career, certain differences are of paramount importance.

1. It is a very religious, very Christian country and in many states church attendance is very high. There would be a strong backlash against widening the gambling restrictions in these states.

2. Similarly, Mum's apple pie values do exist in much of the mid-west especially and gambling would not be encouraged.They have no history of legal widespread gambling as we do in the UK (from the 60's only).

3. Politically, as you say, the issue would be very sensitive.I can't see the Republicans voting for it as it would damage their recovery with the Tea Party activists and with their Southern, religious vote. The Democrats have enough problems with the economy, health care and the foreign wars without wanting another unpopular debate.

This wouldn't necessarily stop some States from going ahead but you can bet that priority will be given to home based operators who may wish to develop internet & exchanges.

So, in my view, the US is something of a long-hot but an important one.But, as I say, Americans have no legacy of legal gambling, no betting shops on the High Street,no experience of internet gambling either, so I conclude that it will be much more of a struggle for BF there than it was here.

viva el presidente!
Date Joined: 10 Jun 06
Add contact | Send message
When: 31 Mar 11 23:48
Joined:
Date Joined: 10 Jun 06
| Topic/replies: 7,340 | Blogger: viva el presidente!'s blog
that's a generous offer, Investor, but I'll pass.

the reason I don't think the US will ever allow exchange betting (and therefore laying) is because of the prominence of college sports in US culture, and the cultural sensitivity over anything that threatens their integrity.

if it ever started to look like a serious possibility, there would be a backlash and politicians would be falling over themselves to oppose it. it would become political poison.


Similar arguments are made often, but I think the reality is that betting exchange transparency will actually help to avoid dodgy practices rather than causing them.

If the Yanks ever allow online betting, Betfair will go from market leader to "Who?" in a very short period of time.

Sports governing bodies everywhere are going to take a harder line on their sport being bet on. They will raise integrity issues as a cover for pushing for being granted some kind of licensing rights.

Horse racing (the sport I care about) is on its last legs. It's always been a betting medium but the understanding of the authorities and industry has been that betting is a mug's game that directs funds to them. When their margins are revealed as uncomptitive in relation to bettor betting on football and playing poker, they cannot understand that it threatens their long-term future.

Bf must think about how it can become the default mode of betting in emerging jurisdictions. The appeal must be that because it is efficient, it cannot be undercut by rogue operators who pay sports nothing.

*on its last legs in Europe and America, that is.

askari1

Similar arguments are made often, but I think the reality is that betting exchange transparency will actually help to avoid dodgy practices rather than causing them.



I agree with that but it's an entirely rational view and what is driving opinion inthe States, as elsewhere, is not necessarily reason but emotion and culture which is why I am suggesting that the difficulties of BF or any other on-line gambling operation getting widespread support there are or may be unsurmountable.

logically you're right, Investor - but US politics doesn't run on logic.

the history and resonance of point-shaving scandals in college sports make it an impossibility, imo. it's just too loaded. especially with all the dodgy stuff happening in european football for opponents to point at.

Sandown it's greed and self interest that drives the US (and just about everyone else to be fair)

If you don't look after your own self interests you are effectively being taken for a ride by those that do

for Betfair to crack any market they need to convince the hosts that both Betfair's interst and the host's interests can be met through Betfair.

In new juristicitions that legalise exchange betting, I dont think they will let betfair into the market, especially those who have are use to having a state monopoly through the PMU.

The problem with betfair,is that it will be a victim of it's own success, betfair have shown that betting exchange like anything else that are dependant on the "network effect" tends to a monopoly.

states that are use to having monopoly are not going to voluntarily give up that monopoly to another party, especially a foreign one.

It's more likely they will develop their own exchange,In fact I think GBE are in a great position to do this for them. Part of their business model, allows parties to lease their exchange software while still sharing liquidity.

This would be more acceptable situation for these new juristictions. What I expect will happen,is that these places will legalise exchange betting for off-course only, while still maintaining there on-course monoplies.

Every season at Hong Kong in the estimate of the chief exective of the Jockey Club, they are losing over 20 billion in HK dollars bet to illegal operators.

Bf's argument has to be that they are going to lose more and more of this money unless they offer the best available prices straight out. An exchange is the technology to do this--fixed odds bookies on horses are never going to be able to do more than copy bf's price.

They have to convince these jurisdictions that they shd form a partnership w/ bf, with the exchange as their operator and technology provider.

But it doesn't seem as if they're getting anywhere, partly b/c it's hard-wired into anyone associated with horses that bettors have to lose.

betting-quant, I agree that the leasing model that pools liquidity looks a better fit w/ the concerns of legacy tote operators.

All these in-play screens and casinos and poker are fiddling while Rome burns unless they have a good strategy for global expansion.