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General Betting
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alright people i have found edge in sports betting. no joke, bit i am confused as to how to calculate this.
for example last thursday i backed Huddersfield against wigan in rugby league at 1.65 and the sp on here was 1.53.
however this bet did go on to lose. This happens with majority of my bets but think i am over staking.
i want to use half-kelly but how do you calculate your edge %.
cheers in advance .
for example last thursday i backed Huddersfield against wigan in rugby league at 1.65 and the sp on here was 1.53.
however this bet did go on to lose. This happens with majority of my bets but think i am over staking.
i want to use half-kelly but how do you calculate your edge %.
cheers in advance .
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Replies: 19
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hedge or edge lol
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Your Edge is the % difference between what the available price is (after commision) and what the correct price is
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cheers tober so in the huddersfield example it is
.65 X .95 = .6175-.53= .0875 and then .0875/.53= 16.5 % edge. is that right? so calculating what i perceive to be correct price is key |
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so calculating what i perceive to be correct price is key
Not so much your perception of the price, more the actual odds of something happening as compared to the price available. There is a split of opinion on this forum about whether or not you can accurately gauge the odds of an event occurring. I believe you can. |
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Yes , if the correct price , in you opinion, EVS , and you can get 11/10 , then it is a 10% Edge.
Though it's only really a 10% edge for definite if your method of calculating the price like that produces a 10% profit over hundreds of bets (preferably thousands but at around Evs a few hundred should at least tell you wether you are a better judge than the market). |
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cheers gents
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Found an edge betting 4/6 shots don't kid yourself gl
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You clearly don't know what you're talking about I.quit.my.country.
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That's a 5% edge Tobers :)
Evs @ 11/10 = 10%/2. |
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Why is it divided by 2?
11/10 is 10% bigger than Evens Level Stake backing @11/10 on coin flips will return your stake +10% profit. |
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At 11/10 on an even money chance, for that bet only you have a 10% advantage, but seeing you are only going to win 1 in 2
bets if the chances (50%) hold true, then your edge is only 5%. |
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 ah yes Trev and CM , i agree the edge is long term and 5% is the expected returnThe thread being about Kelly i was just thinking about the margin of difference on the individual bet for stake calculation |
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ok i quit my country. i am willing to take advice. is it that you think i am talking crap or is it just not worth my while?
for example last week backed celtic at 2.3 and sp on here was 2.13 against the gers and backed liverpool to qualify against braga at 1.91 and again sp was 1.82. these including Huddersfield bet above were my last 3 sports bets so while all losers am i not consistently finding value or edge? and this should profit long term with right staking? i do think i am on to something here and am grateful for responses and advice. |
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Yep you will profit long term with those sort of bets Kiddykid, but if you find only a few a week it will be tough mentally with the slow progress, so a long term steady view is essential.
How much of your betting bank are you risking on each bet? My personal method is to risk 0.5% per bet, but some would say that's under staking, but I'm sometimes placing many bets at the same time so it suits me mentally and I'm comfortable with it. I don't bother with Kelly, just level stakes, the important thing is to find the value in the first place as you have done. IMO, as a rule of thumb you should expect a losing run of approx 10 times your average odds, so at evens that would be 10 in a row, 10/1 would be 100 in a row etc, which seems to happen approx twice a year in my experience. The worst run I've seen was 140 in a row with average odds of 15/1. |
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With these kinds of price movements you should be pressing the green button.
But Then you Face the problem of getting enough on to make it worthwhile. Staking advice: well i don't have any I stake whatevers on offer early, hours before race time. Snapping up All the value. But i only leave 3% of bank IP. Your markets are fairly liquid compared to mine so you should make a bit more. |
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The problem with applying Kelly to sports is that the criterion is only valid "when the investment or 'game' is played many times over, with the same probability of winning or losing each time, and the same payout ratio." IMO, this is not the case with horse racing.
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It is though, IMO
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If you think the SP is correct, you should trade out.
For instance, in your example: "last thursday i backed Huddersfield against wigan in rugby league at 1.65 and the sp on here was 1.53." What did you think the correct price was? Unless you think it was sub 1.5, you should probably be laying at 1.54 (or even better, 1.53). |
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alright will take on board all your suggestions. think possibly trading is the way forward maybe with a stop loss in case price moves against me as dont have a lot of capital at the minute.
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