General Betting
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Ive been on here near on 7 years, tried various methods, to try and make some income out of my love for football, but failed 
So decided i wont be reloading again and playing with the 3.30 i have left in betfair account.
Its true you do need an edge but i cannot find one, so decided just to bet on things i cannot possibly see losing hence the prices will be very very low
Please dont mock on come on here and take the piss, i never have done to anyone else, so would like that respect returned
Its going to be a short price attempt that most will say will be doomed from start so if you dont like the thread plz do not read, any advice mind will be appreciated
First bet Barcelona v Arsenal - Arsenal Win Both Halves NO 3.30 @1.02
So decided i wont be reloading again and playing with the 3.30 i have left in betfair account.
Its true you do need an edge but i cannot find one, so decided just to bet on things i cannot possibly see losing hence the prices will be very very low
Please dont mock on come on here and take the piss, i never have done to anyone else, so would like that respect returned
Its going to be a short price attempt that most will say will be doomed from start so if you dont like the thread plz do not read, any advice mind will be appreciated
First bet Barcelona v Arsenal - Arsenal Win Both Halves NO 3.30 @1.02
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Bet 1 won bank 3.37
Todays selection Schalke v Valencia 3.37 @ 1.04 Under 5.5 Goals |
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anyone who feels the urge to take the p!ss should think back to the recent abortion of a thread put up by odwyer, imo.
gl, have fun. |
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Doomed from the start.
That being said, you seem to understand that anyway. Therefore my piece of advice, as you seem to be doing it for the fun as much as anything would be that when you get to £4, you might as well have two banks of £2 so you get as much time and fun out of your money as possible. Good luck, maybe you'll survive long enough and study enough markets to find an edge while you're doing this. |
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Cheers for comments [;)]
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funny that so many forumites look down on anyone who can't "make it pay", "go pro" etc and just bets for fun.
who would you rather be? someone earning a good wage doing something else who loses but feels like they get enough fun out of it to make it worth while. or someone working longer hours to "earn" half as much on here? |
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I prefer it this way, pick out one bet a day, and thats it. Before i had laptop on several hours a day probably neglecting my family getting nowhere
I know now i will never make it pay and just wanted to try something like this to see how it panned out |
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if you are all in in every bet, what happens 100 bets down the line
will you still go all in or will you go back to your previous staking habits? |
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viva el presidente! Joined: 10 Jun 06
Replies: 7144 09 Mar 11 18:43 funny that so many forumites look down on anyone who can't "make it pay", "go pro" etc and just bets for fun. I remember reading a few years ago that when Bill Gates went to Vegas you'd find him playing the $3/$6 game in the Bellagio (The smallest game in the room at that time). His reasoning: "I'm not very good, why would I play bigger" The people I don't understand are the tweeners, the Odwyers of the world who have put years of near full time into making it pay, can't, and still insist they can. I think honesty with yourself is one of the keys to winning at gambling, as without this you can't accurately assess where you're at. I was a decent winner at backgammon some years back. Aren't I great..... ... well actually, I really wasn't great. I put in the work and was half decent, but any good player would destroy me. I did well though by being honest with myself when I lost (Anyone who's played backgammon will know just how hard it can be to filter the luck out of your head when you lose) and mainly playing people I was better than (I always belive in challenging myself to improve too, so I'd sometimes take on a losing proposition - something that I do on here too from time to time - and try and turn it around) In the late 90s early 00s I was probably one of the better poker players in the country, top 100 maybe. These days I barely play the game. I can just about follow a high level conversation between good players but there's no way I can apply it at the table. Sure I can grind it out with the mugs if need be, but I'm under no illusions that I'm anywhere near the top 5000 in the country, let alone 100. Threads like this that start off acknowledging weakness are the way to learn something IMO. I like the one bet a day idea, that means you'll spend SOME time studying things, or at least having ideas, without rushing things mentally. Your brain doesn't have time to digest the information if you're on here for 10 hours and filling it full of gibberish while looking for bet after bet. If you spend, say, (random number here) an hour a day looking for what might be a good bet (You can still find value, even on 1.02 shots) then you'll be analysing stuff in your subconscious even without knowing it, while, as you say, spending time actually living life. (See REMs post further down for details of what we should all be doing sooner rather than later) Also, given that you're wanting to be thoughtful rather than just lumping on (At least that's the indication), I can give you one piece of value without giving away anything at all that will hurt me. Have a look through (because I simply can't remember) and find out where the commission kicks in. For instance, there's no point betting to win 10p instead of 9p if they're going to take the extra penny in commission. You can stake 50p less on a 1.02 shot in that situation! Again, you'll have to build your own commission chart to get it right, but you'll be thinking about (and actually creating) value. Similar, get in the habit of staking the minimum to win what you're trying to win. Again, this will be a little trial and error creating a chart to see where the decimal places kick in. 3.30 at 1.02 wins 6.6p 3.26 wins 6.52p ... if fractions over .5 are rounded up, you could have bet 4p less. That doesn't matter now, but if you ever get to two banks (If you go that route), you've got 2.04 in your backup rather than 2.00 if this loses. If all fractions are rounded down, you can bet 3.00 and win 6p Again, that would be your task if you were interested to keep an eye on. It's a form of value you can take advantage of at this point though. |
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An honest post. It's good that you can admit that things are not working.
If I may add some thoughts which I hope may help you: This whole sports betting world is a freakin' noise factory. Randomness,man, noise...You have been exhausted by your battle with randomness and all the noise. (Claude Shannon saw it all...what we have to do is embrace the noise and make it work in our favour.) Think of a soccer match. Where is the noise? The goals, of course...no one knows when they will come and how often, who will score, etc.. It's just noise. Random. Unpredictable.But the further you step back, look at the league stats on goals, the yearly stats for goals, etc...) the less noise there is. There you go...take that idea. Assume the long-term stats are right and the short-term situation (the match, the next half, the next 10 minutes, etcc...) is just noise. Bet accordingly. Embrace the noise as your ally. But here is where you have probably been going wrong. How much to bet? You have probably (like most people) been betting noisy amounts against noisy events. The result --- bad news for your bank. I have to run away...just a quick bit of advice. You probably won't be over a 5% edge, so don't bet over 10% of your bank on a 2.00 shot (ideal Kelly stake). I can help you more on my blog...gotta run. Good luck, man.. Hang in there. |
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Many thanks for your comments and word's ,refreshing to see they are kind and helpful. I would like to think I will be able to put some sort of run together at these prices may take a while to get up to something worthwhile but I'm in no rush ! Your right Lori I do look for about that sort of time for the bet backing it up with other stat sites I'm not going to pick the first short price I see and I do have to think the price is value and result is a formality. If in time I get to what I think is a decent amount to have 2 banks I will.
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Bet 2 won Bank 3.49
Todays selection Benfica v Paris St-G Paris St-G Win Both Halves NO 3.49 @ 1.03(unmatched) |
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My 3.49 @ 1.03 still unmatched
anyone |
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A challenge thread - 2nd bet schalke - has the great man returned?
Then you said 'cheers for comments' and took a whole day to update a winning bet, so maybe not Good Luck |
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Schalke's back
he posted on football chat earlier |
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I may be a lot of things but please not a schalke! I'm a normal bloke every day working hence lack of posts!
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Matched
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footy,
Your best chance is a Shalke-style run of accumulating bets, re-investing your profit after each win. Assuming you are betting on events under 1.10, throw half your bank at each. It's your best chance to re-build your bank, assuming you don't have an edge. If you do have an edge, Mr. Kelly will soon give you back your betting bank.  |
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Bet 3 won Bank 3.58
Todays selection is in the Brescia v Inter game Brescia Win from Behind NO 3.58 @ 1.03 (unmatched) [;)] No edge here Snapper! Cheers for comments |
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Might have to change bet as no interest in market
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No bet tonight
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Hello there.
If you wanted to lay Brescia to win from behind, then just lay them now. they are better odds than 1.03 at the moment. |
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good job.
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...or maybe not.
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going to have a go at this myself. hope u dont mind me joining in.
bank £5.00 |
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Today's selection birmingham v bolton under 5.5 goals at 1.04
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Bet 4 won bank 3.71
Bet 5 Real Madrid v Hercules Hercules clean sheet NO 3.71 @ 1.04 |
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christ but you're dodging some bullets here
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The under 5.5 goals on bir bol was probably my most confident since my first bet
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going to start with £10 bank.
bet 1 AC Milan v Bari back AC Milan £5 @ 1.19 |
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bet 2
Australia v Kenya (ICC Cricket World Cup) back Australia £4.75 @ 1.02 |
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Bet 5 won Bank 3.85
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First selection today ac milan v bari
Under 6.5 goals 3.85 @ 1.04 Be lucky peeps  |
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Bet 6 won bank 3.99
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Bet 7 man city v reading
Under 6.5 goals 3.99 @ 1.04 |
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Bet 7 won Bank 4.14
Bet 8 Sevilla v Barca Sevilla win from behind NO 4.14 @ 1.03 |
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Bet 8 won Bank 4.25
Todays selection Leiria v Porto Lay ht Leira ft Leira 0.21 @ 20.0 |
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Bet 9 won Bank 4.45
Todays selection Lay ht marseille ft marseille 0.23 @ 19.0 |
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Bet 10 won Bank 4.68
Todays selection Chelsea v FC Copenhagen FC Copenhagen Win to Nil NO 4.68 @ 1.04 |