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General Betting
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I have decided to open this thread for few reasons:
- do an experiment with a real (small) bank
- be more disciplined ... every bet will be registered here so I'll stick to this "strategy" and not put any other "random" bets
Why LAY at HT (mostly)?
- LAY at low odds ... so a HIT should not be so damaging
- put the bet only when I have some info about how the match is going
- use history / stats to reduce chances of a HIT
How it will go:
- LAY at maximum ~20 but most of the time the LAY should be @~ 4-10
- LAY 2E every time ... so liability would be between 5 and 20 euros
- do an experiment with a real (small) bank
- be more disciplined ... every bet will be registered here so I'll stick to this "strategy" and not put any other "random" bets
Why LAY at HT (mostly)?
- LAY at low odds ... so a HIT should not be so damaging
- put the bet only when I have some info about how the match is going
- use history / stats to reduce chances of a HIT
How it will go:
- LAY at maximum ~20 but most of the time the LAY should be @~ 4-10
- LAY 2E every time ... so liability would be between 5 and 20 euros
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Replies: 275
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Fixtures 26 February / Swansea v Leeds / Correct Score Any Unquoted Lay 13785895085 26-Feb-11
14:03 7.2 2.00 7.2 |
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Fixtures 26 February / Swansea v Leeds / Correct Score
Any Unquoted Lay 13786294138 26-Feb-11 14:18 3.2 2.00 3.2 26-Feb-11 14:18 |
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Getting out as it becomes dangerous:
Fixtures 26 February / Swansea v Leeds / Correct Score Any Unquoted Back 13786667529 26-Feb-11 14:34 8.4 2.00 8.4 26-Feb-11 14:35 |
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Fixtures 26 February / Kaiserslautern v Hamburg / Correct Score
1 - 0 Lay 13788173239 26-Feb-11 15:28 4.7 2.00 4.7 26-Feb-11 15:29 |
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Fixtures 26 February / Aston Villa v Blackburn / Correct Score
0 - 1 Lay 13788971321 26-Feb-11 16:01 9.6 2.00 9.6 26-Feb-11 16:01 |
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21 minute ... difficult to see 0-0 in this game
Fixtures 26 February / Atl Madrid v Sevilla / Correct Score 0 - 0 Lay 13790865956 26-Feb-11 17:25 9 2.00 9 26-Feb-11 17:25 |
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I may also LAY 0-0 HT ... but not fully convinced yet
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im going for a meal now and will be having chips(mostly)
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I see at least one more goal (Ath. Madrid) ...
Fixtures 26 February / Atl Madrid v Sevilla / Correct Score 0 - 1 Lay 13791341407 26-Feb-11 17:56 4.9 2.00 4.9 26-Feb-11 17:56 |
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DAY 1: Football: €9.54 | Tote: | Total P&L: €9.54
=================================================== Football / Atl Madrid v Sevilla : Correct Score 26-Feb-11 17:00 26-Feb-11 18:53 3.81 Football / Aston Villa v Blackburn : Correct Score 26-Feb-11 15:00 26-Feb-11 16:40 1.91 Football / Kaiserslautern v Hamburg : Correct Score 26-Feb-11 14:30 26-Feb-11 16:25 1.91 Football / Swansea v Leeds : Correct Score 26-Feb-11 12:45 26-Feb-11 14:43 1.91 =================================================== |
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Fixtures 27 February / Catania v Genoa / Half Time Score
0 - 2 Lay 13798141601 27-Feb-11 11:51 7.6 2.00 7.6 27-Feb-11 11:51 |
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Should not have put this bet ... it was based only on "feeling" ... Catania played unexpectedly open this first half and Genoa missed at least one BIG chance so score 2nd goal.
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If I could have changed my bet I would have LAY AUQ after Genoa goal @14 ...
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It is a HOT day there acornel....and it is 11 against 10......so every chance the home team scores. You should be OK, as the longer the game goes the chances are the 10 men will wilt in the sun!
GL |
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Catania should protect this a bit unexpected advantage ... maybe they will score one more time if Genoa continue to play open
Fixtures 27 February / Catania v Genoa / Correct Score Any Unquoted Lay 13798781486 27-Feb-11 12:47 11 2.00 11 27-Feb-11 12:49 |
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My preferred combination for Bundesliga2:
Fixtures 27 February / Fortuna Dusseldorf v Osnabruck / Correct Score 1 - 1 Lay 13799488160 27-Feb-11 13:41 8.2 2.00 8 27-Feb-11 13:42 Fixtures 27 February / Fortuna Dusseldorf v Osnabruck / Correct Score 3 - 1 Back 13799352745 27-Feb-11 13:32 21 2.00 21 27-Feb-11 13:36 |
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DFC, I hesitated to get out of LAY AUQ after first red card ... but I trust the "italian spirit" on footie :-)
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Put a LAY 3-0 on Celtic's match @12 ... waiting for matching ...I hardly believe Celtic won't score
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After another good chance missed by Motherwell the market went down on 3-0 from ~14 to ~12
Fixtures 27 February / Motherwell v Celtic / Correct Score 3 - 0 Lay 13799759400 27-Feb-11 13:56 12 2.00 12 27-Feb-11 14:01 |
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How many more chances Dusseldorf could miss?
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Went out on LAY 3-0 Celtic ... Celtic might risky everything now
Fixtures 27 February / Motherwell v Celtic / Correct Score 3 - 0 Back 13800442758 27-Feb-11 14:27 14 2.00 14 27-Feb-11 14:29 |
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First intention was to LAY AUQ but the odds are too big. I see a good value in LAY 2-1 ...
Fixtures 27 February / West Ham v Liverpool / Correct Score 2 - 1 Lay 13800639722 27-Feb-11 14:36 5.1 2.00 5.1 27-Feb-11 14:36 |
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Fixtures 27 February / Brescia v Lecce / Correct Score
Any Unquoted Lay 13800927236 27-Feb-11 14:49 5.1 2.00 5.1 27-Feb-11 14:49 |
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Was lucky today ... so try one more:
Fixtures 27 February / Nancy v Marseille / Correct Score 2 - 1 Lay 13803908140 27-Feb-11 17:02 8.4 2.00 8.4 27-Feb-11 17:02 |
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Fixtures 27 February / Hercules v Getafe / Correct Score
2 - 0 Back 13803951150 27-Feb-11 17:04 15 2.00 15 27-Feb-11 17:04 Fixtures 27 February / Hercules v Getafe / Correct Score 0 - 0 Lay 13803951151 27-Feb-11 17:04 3.95 2.00 3.85 27-Feb-11 17:04 |
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This LAY might by dodgy as 0-1 is a frequent score in Bundesliga this year ... but the game is quite open. I might also LAY 0-2 if W Bremen put enough pressure on Leverkusen
Fixtures 27 February / W Bremen v Leverkusen / Correct Score 2 - 3 Back 13804415899 27-Feb-11 17:30 48 2.00 48 27-Feb-11 17:30 Fixtures 27 February / W Bremen v Leverkusen / Correct Score 0 - 1 Lay 13804415903 27-Feb-11 17:30 5 2.00 5 27-Feb-11 17:30 |
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Hercules - Getafe ... I think that the red line of missing in front of goal was touched ... now a goal should come.
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Only one hit so far going well bud
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Still have problems with my BACKs ... not enough precision
Fixtures 27 February / Santander v Villarreal / Correct Score Any Unquoted Lay 13804974331 27-Feb-11 18:09 8.8 2.00 8.8 27-Feb-11 18:11 |
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Pushed too hard on Bremen match (BACK 2-3) ...
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Don't see Villarreal scoring two time 2nd half ... Santander strong at home + extra parameters saying LAY 1-2 is good value
Fixtures 27 February / Santander v Villarreal / Correct Score 1 - 2 Lay 13805496332 27-Feb-11 18:58 13.5 2.00 13.5 27-Feb-11 18:58 |
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1-0 was also to LAY but hesitated because it is by far the most frequent score in Spain
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Sampdoria (0-0 master) vs Inter ... if an early goal will be scored (preferably by Samp) then I will LAY AUQ
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Lille very strong at home and play very good ... hope that Lyon won't risk too much from the beginning
Fixtures 27 February / Lille v Lyon / Correct Score Any Unquoted Lay 13806335437 27-Feb-11 20:14 7.8 2.00 7.8 27-Feb-11 20:14 |
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Even if Samp is Mr. 0-0 and 0-0 is the preferred score in Italy ... I will Lay 0-0. First half quite open, both teams are playing better 2nd half so if they continue like that a goal will be scored. Furthermore this looks to be a 1-1 game ...
Fixtures 27 February / Sampdoria v Inter / Correct Score 1 - 0 Back 13806695750 27-Feb-11 20:44 8.2 2.00 8.2 27-Feb-11 20:44 Fixtures 27 February / Sampdoria v Inter / Correct Score 0 - 0 Lay 13806695751 27-Feb-11 20:44 3.8 2.00 3.8 27-Feb-11 20:44 |
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I BACK 1-0 by mistake (hurry) in Samp match ... anyway I think Inter should won this game from here
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Even if before the game Bilbao-Valencia was a good candidate for Over 2.5 ... I still see it ending 1-0 (nothing to LAY from HT until now)
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Wrongly weight up the game ... luckily no bet for me on it. That's the purpose of this thread: "force" me to analyze 2 times before I put a bet ...
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DAY 2: Football: €7.57 | Tote: | Total P&L: €7.57
==================================================== Football Showing 1 - 12 of 12 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (€) Football / Lille v Lyon : Correct Score 27-Feb-11 20:00 27-Feb-11 21:52 1.91 Football / Sampdoria v Inter : Correct Score 27-Feb-11 19:45 27-Feb-11 21:38 0.00 Football / Santander v Villarreal : Correct Score 27-Feb-11 18:00 27-Feb-11 19:53 3.81 Football / W Bremen v Leverkusen : Correct Score 27-Feb-11 16:30 27-Feb-11 18:23 0.00 Football / Nancy v Marseille : Correct Score 27-Feb-11 16:00 27-Feb-11 17:57 1.91 Football / Hercules v Getafe : Correct Score 27-Feb-11 16:00 27-Feb-11 17:52 -7.70 Football / Brescia v Lecce : Correct Score 27-Feb-11 14:00 27-Feb-11 15:52 1.91 Football / West Ham v Liverpool : Correct Score 27-Feb-11 13:30 27-Feb-11 15:25 1.91 Football / Motherwell v Celtic : Correct Score 27-Feb-11 12:45 27-Feb-11 14:39 0.00 Football / Fortuna Dusseldorf v Osnabruck : Correct Score 27-Feb-11 12:30 27-Feb-11 14:20 0.00 Football / Catania v Genoa : Correct Score 27-Feb-11 11:30 27-Feb-11 13:22 1.91 Football / Catania v Genoa : Half Time Score 27-Feb-11 11:30 27-Feb-11 12:19 1.91 ========================================= Felt lucky twice: - Fortuna scored 2nd goal ~ 88' - West Ham scored 3rd goal ~ 90' Looking back at Hercules - Getafe ... the game was quite open and a goal should have been scored even from 1st helf ... so no regret. But hope to find the "magic formula" to avoid this kind of HIT (in the end there were some signals it could well stay 0-0) |