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acornel
26 Feb 11 10:39
Joined:
Date Joined: 30 Sep 10
| Topic/replies: 2,558 | Blogger: acornel's blog
I have decided to open this thread for few reasons:
- do an experiment with a real (small) bank
- be more disciplined ... every bet will be registered here so I'll stick to this "strategy" and not put any other "random" bets

Why LAY at HT (mostly)?
- LAY at low odds ... so a HIT should not be so damaging
- put the bet only when I have some info about how the match is going
- use history / stats to reduce chances of a HIT

How it will go:
- LAY at maximum ~20 but most of the time the LAY should be @~ 4-10
- LAY 2E every time ... so liability would be between  5 and 20 euros
Pause Switch to Standard View LAY(mostly) correct score at...
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Report acornel March 10, 2011 8:50 PM GMT
Hamilton deserved his goal but they are very poor 2nd half away ... Dundee should take advantage now.

Fixtures 10 March / Dundee Utd v Hamilton / Correct Score    
    2 - 2     Lay     13942915570     10-Mar-11
20:49           11     2.00         11     10-Mar-11 20:49    
   
Fixtures 10 March / Dundee Utd v Hamilton / Correct Score    
    1 - 2     Lay     13942901515     10-Mar-11
20:48           9     2.00         9     10-Mar-11 20:48
Report acornel March 10, 2011 8:53 PM GMT
You can rarely see such domination in a soccer match ... Ajax missed MANY MANY chances first half while Spartak struggle to keep the clean sheet.
Report acornel March 10, 2011 9:20 PM GMT
Dundee too weak until now (75') so decided to get out from LAY 1-2. The game might well stay 1-1.

Fixtures 10 March / Dundee Utd v Hamilton / Correct Score    
    1 - 2     Back     13943266197     10-Mar-11
21:16           10     2.00         10     10-Mar-11 21:17
Report acornel March 10, 2011 9:21 PM GMT
Ajax definitely lost "the momentum" ... so Spartak scored now ...
Report acornel March 10, 2011 9:37 PM GMT
Dundee showed some signs for a goal after 80' but I ignored them ... at one moment I wanted to BACK 2-1 but finally I decided to be happy with the current profit.
Report acornel March 10, 2011 9:38 PM GMT
I want to trade out my BACK 2-1 AJAx so I need one goal from Ajax! I hope they won't score ~90' so that I won't have time for greening out my position Cry
Report acornel March 10, 2011 10:52 PM GMT
Union scored 2 goals from two chances ... as Velez was the favorite team before the match I decided to LAY AUQ just after 2-0.

Fixtures 10 March / Union Espanola v Velez / Correct Score    
    Any Unquoted     Lay     13944099586     10-Mar-11
22:44           4.8     2.00         4.8     10-Mar-11 22:45
Report acornel March 11, 2011 8:09 AM GMT
DAY 13: Football: €5.60 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  €5.60
============================================================
Football     Showing 1 - 5 of 5 markets
Market     Start time     Settled date     Profit/loss (€)
Football / Union Espanola v Velez : Correct Score     10-Mar-11 22:15     11-Mar-11 00:09     1.90
Football / Ajax v Spartak Moscow : Correct Score     10-Mar-11 20:05     10-Mar-11 21:57     -2.00
Football / Dundee Utd v Hamilton : Correct Score     10-Mar-11 19:45     10-Mar-11 21:36     1.90
Football / Ajax v Spartak Moscow : 1st Goal     10-Mar-11 20:05     10-Mar-11 21:18     1.90
Football / CSKA Moscow v Porto : Correct Score     10-Mar-11 18:00     10-Mar-11 19:56     1.90
=======================================

Could have been better if Ajax had scored ... this is a warm up before weekend Happy
Report acornel March 11, 2011 5:38 PM GMT
LAY AUQ is very risky on D2, PL, ... matches ... hope it will stay like that until HT when I intend to green out.

Fixtures 11 March / Karlsruhe v Duisburg / Correct Score    
    Any Unquoted     Lay     13952562371     11-Mar-11
17:28           4.4     4.00         4.4     11-Mar-11 17:28
Report acornel March 11, 2011 6:20 PM GMT
Fixtures 11 March / Karlsruhe v Duisburg / Correct Score    
    Any Unquoted     Back     13953215023     11-Mar-11
18:01           7.8     2.00         7.8     11-Mar-11 18:06
Report acornel March 11, 2011 6:25 PM GMT
Both teams opens up 2nd half ... already 1-1 and I think at least one more goal is coming

Fixtures 11 March / FSV Frankfurt v Ingolstadt / Correct Score    
    2 - 1     Back     13953609321     11-Mar-11
18:24           5.2     2.00         5.2     11-Mar-11 18:24    
   
Fixtures 11 March / FSV Frankfurt v Ingolstadt / Correct Score    
    1 - 1     Lay     13953609322     11-Mar-11
18:24           2.38     2.00         2.34     11-Mar-11 18:24
Report acornel March 11, 2011 6:31 PM GMT
1-2 Frankfurt
Ouch ... my BACKs Sad
Report acornel March 11, 2011 8:06 PM GMT
Fixtures 11 March / Evian TG v Clermont / Correct Score    
    0 - 1     Lay     13955237523     11-Mar-11
20:00           3.8     2.00         3.8     11-Mar-11 20:02    
   
Fixtures 11 March / Evian TG v Clermont / Correct Score    
    1 - 1     Back     13955237521     11-Mar-11
20:00           4.2     2.00         4.2     11-Mar-11 20:00
Report acornel March 11, 2011 8:29 PM GMT
Hannover better 1st half but Koln scored. I see at least one goal scored by Hannover (Koln is leaking goals 2nd half):

   
Fixtures 11 March / FC Koln v Hannover / Correct Score    
    2 - 0     Lay     13955782880     11-Mar-11
20:28           6.8     2.00         6.8     11-Mar-11 20:28
Report acornel March 11, 2011 8:49 PM GMT
Inter just too strong 2nd half and Brescia is leaking goals (2nd):
   
Fixtures 11 March / Brescia v Inter / Correct Score    
    0 - 2     Back     13956097884     11-Mar-11
20:47           4.6     2.00         4.6     11-Mar-11 20:47    
   
Fixtures 11 March / Brescia v Inter / Correct Score    
    1 - 1     Lay     13956067258     11-Mar-11
20:45           8.6     2.00         8.6     11-Mar-11 20:46
Report acornel March 11, 2011 8:51 PM GMT
Already a HIH in F2 Cry
Report acornel March 11, 2011 8:59 PM GMT
Ooops ... F2 match I thought it was ended ... a late goal by Evian transformed my HIT in a BACK matched Laugh
Report acornel March 11, 2011 9:00 PM GMT
Utrecht about to score ... hardly seeing no goal in this game!

Fixtures 11 March / Utrecht v Groningen / Correct Score    
    1 - 1     Back     13956263643     11-Mar-11
20:57           9     2.00         9     11-Mar-11 20:58    
   
Fixtures 11 March / Utrecht v Groningen / Correct Score    
    0 - 0     Lay     13956245071     11-Mar-11
20:56           4.2     2.00         4.2     11-Mar-11 20:56
Report acornel March 11, 2011 9:01 PM GMT
Bad news: FC Koln scored
Good news: it's only 75' and Koln is playing really good
Report acornel March 11, 2011 9:09 PM GMT
Good news:
- Koln scored 3rd one
- Utrecht scored
Report acornel March 11, 2011 9:11 PM GMT
Hannover missed 3-4 chances first 15' and after that they played nothing/niente/zero/null
AUQ 5.5 is very tempting ...
Report acornel March 11, 2011 9:11 PM GMT
(AUQ Koln to BACK)
Report acornel March 11, 2011 9:17 PM GMT
Both teams are playing better 2nd half. P. Ferreira is about to score but Beira Mar usually don't lose when they take advantage before HT:

   
Fixtures 11 March / Beira-Mar v Pacos Ferreira / Correct Score    
    2 - 1     Back     13956544031     11-Mar-11
21:15           8.8     2.00         8.8     11-Mar-11 21:15    
   
Fixtures 11 March / Beira-Mar v Pacos Ferreira / Correct Score    
    1 - 0     Lay     13956544032     11-Mar-11
21:15           3.8     2.00         3.8     11-Mar-11 21:15
Report acornel March 11, 2011 9:19 PM GMT
Bad news:
- Inter is missing many chances and Brescia is playing well

Neutral:
- Koln AUQ (4-0) Plain
Report acornel March 11, 2011 9:23 PM GMT
Inter is playing with fire ... another one-to-one missed
Report acornel March 11, 2011 9:27 PM GMT
Changed my BACK position from 1-1 to 2-0 ... Groningen is playing nothing. Most likely it will stay 1-0 ...

Fixtures 11 March / Utrecht v Groningen / Correct Score    
    2 - 0     Back     13956686579     11-Mar-11
21:25           5     1.58         5     11-Mar-11 21:25    
   
Fixtures 11 March / Utrecht v Groningen / Correct Score    
    1 - 1     Lay     13956686580     11-Mar-11
21:25           9     2.00         9     11-Mar-11 21:25
Report acornel March 11, 2011 9:28 PM GMT
Bad news: Brescia scored ... I was totally ignorant in this match [smiley:crazy]
Report acornel March 11, 2011 9:32 PM GMT
And Breascia missed a penalty 90' Cry
Report acornel March 11, 2011 9:52 PM GMT
Good news: Beira Mar 2-1 now (my BACK) ... LAY a bit 2-1 now

Still very upset ... Brescia HIT was so easy to avoid Sad
Report acornel March 11, 2011 10:19 PM GMT
DAY 14: Soccer: €7.92 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  €7.92
=======================================================
Soccer     Showing 1 - 8 of 8 markets
Market     Start time     Settled date     Profit/loss (€)
Soccer / Beira-Mar v Pacos Ferreira : Correct Score     11-Mar-11 20:15     11-Mar-11 22:10     11.42
Soccer / Brescia v Inter : Correct Score     11-Mar-11 19:45     11-Mar-11 21:42     -17.20
Soccer / Utrecht v Groningen : Correct Score     11-Mar-11 19:45     11-Mar-11 21:39     0.00
Soccer / FC Koln v Hannover : Correct Score     11-Mar-11 19:30     11-Mar-11 21:18     1.90
Soccer / Evian TG v Clermont : Correct Score     11-Mar-11 19:00     11-Mar-11 20:53     8.00
Soccer / FSV Frankfurt v Ingolstadt : Correct Score     11-Mar-11 17:00     11-Mar-11 18:53     0.00
Soccer / Karlsruhe v Duisburg : Correct Score     11-Mar-11 17:00     11-Mar-11 18:51     1.90
Soccer / Union Espanola v Velez : Correct Score     10-Mar-11 22:15     11-Mar-11 00:09     1.90
===========================================================

It could have been a great day with almost 2 BACKs matched ((Beira Mar scored 95' just OK to take off some profit). As I said here Brescia played well 2nd half, missed few chances including a penalty, and Inter missed from every position (2-3 times alone against the keeper) ... I had all the time to get out from LAY 1-1 but I didn't do it even there were few signs it end bad for me Cry. Next time I should be more careful with my bets to avoid a late HIT.Plain
Report acornel March 12, 2011 1:15 AM GMT
Usually Olimpo is starting the match after the break ...
   
Fixtures 11 March / Olimpo v All Boys / Correct Score    
    2 - 0     Back     13958576053     12-Mar-11
01:14           9.6     2.00         9.6     12-Mar-11 01:14    
   
Fixtures 11 March / Olimpo v All Boys / Correct Score    
    0 - 0     Lay     13958576054     12-Mar-11
01:14           4.1     2.00         3.85     12-Mar-11 01:14
Report acornel March 12, 2011 1:22 AM GMT
Tigre missed few chances 1st half ... hope they will score ... soon. It might well stay 0-1 ...


Fixtures 11 March / Tigre v Banfield / Correct Score    
    0 - 2     Lay     13958589010     12-Mar-11
01:16           6.6     2.00         6.6     12-Mar-11 01:21
Report acornel March 12, 2011 1:35 AM GMT
Good news:
- Tigre scored
- Olimpo scored
Report acornel March 12, 2011 1:41 AM GMT
LAY a bit 2-0 ... Olimpo did not play so well ... they might be happy with 1-0.
Report acornel March 12, 2011 5:08 PM GMT
Two 0-0 in D2, three 0-0 in Championships ... thanks god BF was down! :-)
Report acornel March 12, 2011 8:37 PM GMT
Good morning! Devil

Juve red card so I don't think it will go AUQ. Also usually Juve is scoring more 1st half ...

Fixtures 12 March / Cesena v Juventus / Correct Score    
    Any Unquoted     Lay     13965930489     12-Mar-11
20:35           6.6     2.00         6.6     12-Mar-11 20:35
Report acornel March 12, 2011 9:07 PM GMT
Both teams are leaking goals 2nd half
Fixtures 12 March / Vitesse v Heerenveen / Correct Score    
    2 - 2     Back     13966251189     12-Mar-11
21:06           32     2.00         32     12-Mar-11 21:06    
   
Fixtures 12 March / Vitesse v Heerenveen / Correct Score    
    1 - 0     Lay     13966251190     12-Mar-11
21:06           3.2     2.00         3.2     12-Mar-11 21:06
Report acornel March 12, 2011 9:10 PM GMT
Zaragoza early goal and they are not favorite to win the match ...

   
Fixtures 12 March / Zaragoza v Valencia / Correct Score    
    Any Unquoted     Lay     13966280958     12-Mar-11
21:09           8     2.00         8     12-Mar-11 21:09
Report acornel March 12, 2011 9:32 PM GMT
Good news: Heerenven scored (1-1)
Bad news: too late for my 2-2 BACK
Report acornel March 12, 2011 9:34 PM GMT
Guimaraes match ... absolutely no idea what could happen. I find Guimaraes totally unpredictable:
- 1-0 / 1-2 at home against a very poor team
- 2nd half usually less goals than 1st half
So nothing to LAY in this match ...
Report acornel March 12, 2011 9:37 PM GMT
Same for Lanus - Gimnasia:
- both teams usually score more 2nd half
- but there were very few real goal chances until HT
So no LAY ... (wanted to LAY 0-0 but I really cannot find support for it)
Report acornel March 12, 2011 9:42 PM GMT
IF Zaragoza-Valencia stays 1-0 HT ... do you know that this season 1-0HT never ended 1-0FT when the home team was underdog?
Report acornel March 12, 2011 9:43 PM GMT
2-0 already ... 40'
Report acornel March 12, 2011 10:01 PM GMT
Very difficult game (Zaragoza) ... for my LAY AUQ position:
- Z scores more goals 2nd half and concedes less (bad)
- V matches - usually less than 2.5g 2nd half (good)
- V usually keeps Clean Sheet 2nd half (good)
- V no real goal chance and they can say it's Champions League elimination shock (bad)
- Z who scored 2 goals from 2 chances (don't know if its good or bad)

I would see 2-0 or 3-0 FT ...
Report acornel March 12, 2011 10:06 PM GMT
Guimaraes - Setubal 1-1 (92') ... what I said about G? (they were favorites 1.70)
Report acornel March 12, 2011 10:23 PM GMT
Z 3-0 and V red card ...
Report acornel March 12, 2011 10:33 PM GMT
And 4-0 ... Z 4 chances = 4 goals
Report acornel March 12, 2011 11:03 PM GMT
Open match, few chances to score for both teams until now ...

Fixtures 12 March / Argentinos Juniors v Arsenal FC / Correct Score    
    1 - 1     Back     13967337943     12-Mar-11
23:01           9     0.33         9     12-Mar-11 23:01    
   
Fixtures 12 March / Argentinos Juniors v Arsenal FC / Correct Score    
    0 - 0     Lay     13967337945     12-Mar-11
23:01           3.45     2.00         3.45     12-Mar-11 23:01
Report acornel March 13, 2011 12:05 AM GMT
DAY 15: Football: -€8.32 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  -€8.32
=========================================================

Football     Showing 1 - 8 of 8 markets
Market     Start time     Settled date     Profit/loss (€)
Football / Argentinos Juniors v Arsenal FC : Correct Score     12-Mar-11 22:10     13-Mar-11 00:01     0.00
Football / Zaragoza v Valencia : Correct Score     12-Mar-11 21:00     12-Mar-11 22:34     -14.00
Football / Cesena v Juventus : Correct Score     12-Mar-11 19:45     12-Mar-11 21:38     1.90
Football / Vitesse v Heerenveen : Correct Score     12-Mar-11 19:45     12-Mar-11 21:35     0.00
Football / Fortuna Dusseldorf v Paderborn : Correct Score     12-Mar-11 12:00     12-Mar-11 13:49     -1.92
Football / Olimpo v All Boys : Correct Score     12-Mar-11 00:15     12-Mar-11 02:08     1.90
Football / Tigre v Banfield : Correct Score     12-Mar-11 00:15     12-Mar-11 02:05     1.90
Football / Colo Colo v Union La Calera : Correct Score     11-Mar-11 23:00     12-Mar-11 00:52     1.90
================================================

Another HIT in Zaragoza match ... after Valencia red I should have closed my LAY AUQ position with a small loss Cry
Report acornel March 13, 2011 12:14 PM GMT
Just after De Graafschap goal.

Fixtures 13 March / De Graafschap v ADO Den Haag / Half Time Score    
    Any Unquoted     Lay     13970179599     13-Mar-11
11:43           15     2.00         15     13-Mar-11 11:46    
   
Fixtures 13 March / De Graafschap v ADO Den Haag / Correct Score    
    Any Unquoted     Lay     13970176622     13-Mar-11
11:43           7.8     2.00         7.8     13-Mar-11 11:43
Report acornel March 13, 2011 12:28 PM GMT
Getting out from AUQ as ADO Den Haag is leaking goals 2nd half. An early goal would help me to get out some profit.

   
Fixtures 13 March / De Graafschap v ADO Den Haag / Correct Score    
    Any Unquoted     Back     13970769208     13-Mar-11
12:27           25     2.00         25     13-Mar-11 12:27
Report acornel March 13, 2011 5:17 PM GMT
Sociedad about to score

   
Fixtures 13 March / Sociedad v Malaga / Correct Score    
    1 - 2     Back     13977164325     13-Mar-11
17:10           8.4     2.00         8.4     13-Mar-11 17:10    
   
Fixtures 13 March / Sociedad v Malaga / Correct Score    
    2 - 1     Back     13977164326     13-Mar-11
17:10           9.6     2.00         10     13-Mar-11 17:10    
   
Fixtures 13 March / Sociedad v Malaga / Correct Score    
    0 - 1     Lay     13977138121     13-Mar-11
17:09           4.5     2.00         4.5     13-Mar-11 17:09    
   
Fixtures 13 March / Sociedad v Malaga / Correct Score    
    0 - 2     Lay     13977138122     13-Mar-11
17:09           8.4     2.00         8.4     13-Mar-11 17:09
Report acornel March 13, 2011 5:23 PM GMT
Very open match, both teams are scoring more 2nd half:

Fixtures 13 March / St Pauli v Stuttgart / Correct Score    
    1 - 1     Lay     13977438598     13-Mar-11
17:21           5.5     2.00         5.5     13-Mar-11 17:22    
   
Fixtures 13 March / St Pauli v Stuttgart / Correct Score    
    2 - 1     Lay     13977438599     13-Mar-11
17:21           7.2     2.00         7.2     13-Mar-11 17:21
Report acornel March 13, 2011 5:24 PM GMT
Bordeaux about to score:

   
Fixtures 13 March / Bordeaux v Monaco / Correct Score    
    0 - 1     Lay     13977490828     13-Mar-11
17:23           2.58     2.00         2.55     13-Mar-11 17:23
Report acornel March 13, 2011 5:58 PM GMT
Bad news: Sociedad did not score ... have to put 1 LAY maximum per match :(

   
Fixtures 13 March / Man City v Reading / Correct Score    
    2 - 0     Back     13977942961     13-Mar-11
17:43           7     2.00         7.2     13-Mar-11 17:43    
   
Fixtures 13 March / Man City v Reading / Correct Score    
    0 - 0     Lay     13977942962     13-Mar-11
17:43           4.7     2.00         4.7     13-Mar-11 17:43
Report acornel March 13, 2011 8:18 PM GMT
Two early goals in French match ... pretty unusual ... no time to check stats now but I'll do it soon:

Fixtures 13 March / Paris St-G v Montpellier / Correct Score    
    Any Unquoted     Lay     13979780945     13-Mar-11
20:17           2.62     4.00         2.62     13-Mar-11 20:17
Report acornel March 13, 2011 8:51 PM GMT
Just after Barcelona's goal:

The "problem" is that Sevilla is leaking goals 2nd half
   
Fixtures 13 March / Sevilla v Barcelona / Correct Score    
    Any Unquoted     Lay     13980028909     13-Mar-11
20:36           5.4     2.00         5.4     13-Mar-11 20:37
Report acornel March 13, 2011 8:55 PM GMT
A bit late this AUQ ... should have put it just after P goal. P is playing tight usually ...

   
Fixtures 13 March / Benfica v Portimonense / Correct Score    
    Any Unquoted     Lay     13980209099     13-Mar-11
20:53           11.5     2.00         11.5     13-Mar-11 20:54
Report acornel March 13, 2011 11:02 PM GMT
Fairly open match:

   
Fixtures 13 March / Colon v Racing Club / Correct Score    
    1 - 3     Back     13981506448     13-Mar-11
23:01           8.6     2.00         8.8     13-Mar-11 23:01    
   
Fixtures 13 March / Colon v Racing Club / Correct Score    
    2 - 3     Back     13981506449     13-Mar-11
23:01           22     2.00         24     13-Mar-11 23:01    
   
Fixtures 13 March / Colon v Racing Club / Correct Score    
    0 - 2     Lay     13981506450     13-Mar-11
23:01           3.65     4.00         3.65     13-Mar-11 23:01
Report DFCIRONMAN March 13, 2011 11:20 PM GMT
1-1 no...so layed all profit off on DRAW and reduced liability on VELEZ.


Just need a goal from either team for good profit
Report DFCIRONMAN March 13, 2011 11:37 PM GMT
Hope this does not finish 1-1 like BARCA game ......
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2011 12:07 AM GMT
Sorry acornel ...was reading your posts ...the got mixed up with threadssssssssssssssLaugh

Hope you are ahead!!!!

Cheers the noooooooo
Report acornel March 14, 2011 12:43 PM GMT
DAY 16: Football: -€6.57 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  -€6.57
=================================================================

Football     Showing 1 - 19 of 19 markets
Market     Start time     Settled date     Profit/loss (€)
Football / Colon v Racing Club : Correct Score     13-Mar-11 22:10     13-Mar-11 23:55     0.00
Football / Benfica v Portimonense : Correct Score     13-Mar-11 20:15     13-Mar-11 22:11     1.90
Football / Paris St-G v Montpellier : Correct Score     13-Mar-11 20:00     13-Mar-11 21:56     3.81
Football / Sevilla v Barcelona : Correct Score     13-Mar-11 20:00     13-Mar-11 21:53     1.90
Football / Man City v Reading : Correct Score     13-Mar-11 16:45     13-Mar-11 18:43     0.00
Football / St Pauli v Stuttgart : Correct Score     13-Mar-11 16:30     13-Mar-11 18:26     11.42
Football / Sociedad v Malaga : Correct Score     13-Mar-11 16:00     13-Mar-11 17:58     -16.80
Football / Bordeaux v Monaco : Correct Score     13-Mar-11 16:00     13-Mar-11 17:54     -3.10
Football / Osasuna v Santander : Correct Score     13-Mar-11 16:00     13-Mar-11 17:54     -6.10
Football / Rangers v Kilmarnock : Correct Score     13-Mar-11 15:00     13-Mar-11 16:56     1.90
Football / Cardiff v Barnsley : Correct Score     13-Mar-11 15:00     13-Mar-11 16:56     0.00
Football / Levante v Mallorca : Half Time Score     13-Mar-11 16:00     13-Mar-11 16:48     1.90
Football / Mainz v Leverkusen : Correct Score     13-Mar-11 14:30     13-Mar-11 16:20     0.00
Football / Lecce v Bologna : Correct Score     13-Mar-11 14:00     13-Mar-11 15:59     -7.20
Football / Genoa v Palermo : Correct Score     13-Mar-11 14:00     13-Mar-11 15:53     1.90
Football / Bielefeld v 1860 Munich : Correct Score     13-Mar-11 12:30     13-Mar-11 14:19     0.00
Football / De Graafschap v ADO Den Haag : Correct Score     13-Mar-11 11:30     13-Mar-11 13:20     0.00
Football / De Graafschap v ADO Den Haag : Half Time Score     13-Mar-11 11:30     13-Mar-11 12:18     1.90
Football / Argentinos Juniors v Arsenal FC : Correct Score     12-Mar-11 22:10     13-Mar-11 00:01     0.00

================================

Most important loss was on Sociedad - Malaga where I put 2 LAY (0-1/0-2) because I thought Sociedad will score. I have to avoid this practice: 2 LAY in one game. Recovered a little bit after a chasing bet on St Pauli - Stuttgart match (LAY 1-1 @1.60 for 10E). I also have to limit my BACKs because it looks like I am not a good "guestimator".
Report acornel March 14, 2011 12:44 PM GMT
Hi DFC ... no problem.
Unfortunately I am 4E behind for the moment ... but hopefully I learned smth from my mistakes.
Report acornel March 14, 2011 8:12 PM GMT
According to the stats, 0-1 is always a score to LAY ... a bit risky what the away team is favorite.

Fixtures 14 March / G Furth v H Berlin / Correct Score    
    1 - 2     Back     13990231259     14-Mar-11
20:10           8.2     2.00         8.2     14-Mar-11 20:10    
   
Fixtures 14 March / G Furth v H Berlin / Correct Score    
    2 - 1     Back     13990231260     14-Mar-11
20:10           19     2.00         19     14-Mar-11 20:10    
   
Fixtures 14 March / G Furth v H Berlin / Correct Score    
    0 - 1     Lay     13990231261     14-Mar-11
20:10           3.95     4.00         3.95     14-Mar-11 20:10
Report acornel March 14, 2011 8:17 PM GMT
Citadella - Padova 2-0 after 30' ... but not enough info to LAY AUQ @5.5
Report acornel March 14, 2011 8:28 PM GMT
Good news: 0-2 Hertha
Bad news: I would have preferred 1-1 ...
Report acornel March 14, 2011 8:30 PM GMT
Hertha missed many chances 1st half ... BACK 2-1 was a bit waste of money :-(
Report acornel March 14, 2011 8:39 PM GMT
Le Mans - Nimes ... nothing to say, stats saying boring teams ... It could stay 1-0 or 2-0 so nothing to LAY
Report acornel March 14, 2011 9:10 PM GMT
Fairly open match ... HT odds for LAY 1-0 were too high (5.0) ... Norwich very strong last 30 minutes:
   
Fixtures 14 March / Norwich v Bristol City / Correct Score    
    1 - 0     Lay     13991064567     14-Mar-11
21:08           2.98     2.00         2.98     14-Mar-11 21:08    
   
Fixtures 14 March / Norwich v Bristol City / Correct Score    
    3 - 0     Back     13991064564     14-Mar-11
21:08           11.5     2.00         12     14-Mar-11 21:08    
   
Fixtures 14 March / Norwich v Bristol City / Correct Score    
    Any Unquoted     Back     13991064565     14-Mar-11
21:08           30     2.00         30     14-Mar-11 21:08    
   
Fixtures 14 March / Norwich v Bristol City / Correct Score    
    1 - 0     Lay     13991030092     14-Mar-11
21:06           3.15     2.00         3.15     14-Mar-11 21:06
Report acornel March 14, 2011 9:11 PM GMT
Good news: Bristol just scored Laugh
Bad news: May BACK is dodgy again (3-0)
Report acornel March 14, 2011 9:12 PM GMT
Getafe match is to LAY 0-0 but 1st half was boring ... so I will wait a bit to see if there is some action. Might be too late, I know ...
Report acornel March 14, 2011 9:13 PM GMT
PS: Furth missed few good chances but did not score. Another BACK (1-2) missed Sad
Report acornel March 14, 2011 9:15 PM GMT
As I said, might be too late ... Getafe just scored.
Report acornel March 14, 2011 9:40 PM GMT
Bad news: Norwich 3-1 (2 goals 89' and 92') ... so another BACK lost.

I am close but definitely is not easy at all to BACK successfully Cry
Report acornel March 15, 2011 8:33 AM GMT
DAY 17: Football: €0.00 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  €0.00
=============================================================

Football     Showing 1 - 2 of 2 markets
Market     Start time     Settled date     Profit/loss (€)
Football / Norwich v Bristol City : Correct Score     14-Mar-11 19:45     14-Mar-11 21:45     0.00
Football / G Furth v H Berlin : Correct Score     14-Mar-11 19:15     14-Mar-11 21:04     0.00

================================================

Another 4 BACKs wasted ... Ok, I'll drastically limit my BACK from now on. Anyway happy for my LAYs Happy
Report acornel March 15, 2011 8:50 PM GMT
Ipswich is leaking goals 2nd half:

Fixtures 15 March / Ipswich v Watford / Correct Score    
    1 - 3     Back     14003017732     15-Mar-11
20:48           28     2.00         28     15-Mar-11 20:48    
   
Fixtures 15 March / Ipswich v Watford / Correct Score    
    0 - 1     Lay     14003017733     15-Mar-11
20:48           5     2.00         5     15-Mar-11 20:48
Report acornel March 15, 2011 8:54 PM GMT
Open match ... any team could score:
Fixtures 15 March / Brentford v Huddersfield / Correct Score    
    0 - 0     Lay     14003077517     15-Mar-11
20:53           3.45     2.00         3.45     15-Mar-11 20:53
Report acornel March 15, 2011 8:57 PM GMT
Just believe Coventry will score. If it stays too much 1-0 then I will get out from LAY 2-0

Fixtures 15 March / Burnley v Coventry / Correct Score    
    3 - 1     Back     14003109795     15-Mar-11
20:55           19     2.00         19     15-Mar-11 20:55    
   
Fixtures 15 March / Burnley v Coventry / Correct Score    
    2 - 0     Lay     14003109796     15-Mar-11
20:55           4.6     2.00         4.6     15-Mar-11 20:55
Report acornel March 15, 2011 9:10 PM GMT
Good news: Coventry scored
Report acornel March 15, 2011 9:14 PM GMT
Hartlepool opened up the match and missed few chances:
   
Fixtures 15 March / Hartlepool v L Orient / Correct Score    
    0 - 1     Lay     14003367714     15-Mar-11
21:11           2.26     2.00         2.26     15-Mar-11 21:11
Report acornel March 15, 2011 9:14 PM GMT
Good news: Watford scored
Report acornel March 15, 2011 9:20 PM GMT
Just believe Carlisle will score

   
Fixtures 15 March / Carlisle v Plymouth / Correct Score    
    3 - 0     Back     14003494932     15-Mar-11
21:19           25     2.00         25     15-Mar-11 21:20    
   
Fixtures 15 March / Carlisle v Plymouth / Correct Score    
    1 - 0     Lay     14003455840     15-Mar-11
21:16           2.16     2.00         2.14     15-Mar-11 21:16
Report acornel March 15, 2011 9:23 PM GMT
Bad news: Coventry scored again (I was with my mouse over Submit button as the match is very very open) so my BACK 3-1 is out ... again ...
Report acornel March 15, 2011 9:29 PM GMT
Good news: Plymouth scored
Bad news: Plymouth scored

Another BACK lost
Report acornel March 15, 2011 9:36 PM GMT
Good news: Huddersfield scored ... finally (I knew it was risky anyway)
Report acornel March 16, 2011 2:14 PM GMT
DAY 18: Soccer: -€0.62 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  -€0.62
=================================================================

Soccer     Showing 1 - 5 of 5 markets
Market     Start time     Settled date     Profit/loss (€)
Soccer / Ipswich v Watford : Correct Score     15-Mar-11 19:45     15-Mar-11 21:46     0.00
Soccer / Burnley v Coventry : Correct Score     15-Mar-11 19:45     15-Mar-11 21:42     0.00
Soccer / Hartlepool v L Orient : Correct Score     15-Mar-11 19:45     15-Mar-11 21:41     -2.52
Soccer / Brentford v Huddersfield : Correct Score     15-Mar-11 19:45     15-Mar-11 21:40     1.90
Soccer / Carlisle v Plymouth : Correct Score     15-Mar-11 19:45     15-Mar-11 21:38     0.00
======================================================

Another 3 BACKs lost ... no comments.Silly
Report acornel March 16, 2011 8:53 PM GMT
Boring st half with very few real chances for a goal ... my bet is bet only on the fact that both teams are playing better 2nd half. Also the odd (3.5) is low for 0-0. Quite risky but nothing else to bet today ...

   
Fixtures 16 March / Dundee Utd v Hearts / Correct Score    
    1 - 2     Back     14015494870     16-Mar-11
20:41           29     2.00         29     16-Mar-11 20:51    
   
Fixtures 16 March / Dundee Utd v Hearts / Correct Score    
    2 - 1     Back     14015494873     16-Mar-11
20:41           30     2.00         30     16-Mar-11 20:42    
   
Fixtures 16 March / Dundee Utd v Hearts / Correct Score    
    0 - 0     Lay     14015494874     16-Mar-11
20:41           3.5     4.00         3.5     16-Mar-11 20:42
Report acornel March 16, 2011 9:06 PM GMT
Chelsea missed too many goal chances already ... FC Copenhagen should risk more if they want to have a chance to qualify.

   
Fixtures 16 March / Chelsea v FC Copenhagen / Correct Score    
    0 - 0     Lay     14015852742     16-Mar-11
21:05           3.35     2.00         3.3     16-Mar-11 21:05
Report acornel March 16, 2011 9:08 PM GMT
Dundee - Hearts = After 15' from 2nd half it looks like the game did not start (bored)
Report acornel March 16, 2011 9:11 PM GMT
Open match (last 10 minutes) so taking the chance a new goal will be scored:

   
Fixtures 16 March / Gent v Standard / Correct Score    
    1 - 0     Lay     14015917048     16-Mar-11
21:10           1.65     2.00         1.6     16-Mar-11 21:10
Report acornel March 16, 2011 9:22 PM GMT
Dundee - Hearts = maybe everybody are watching Champions League matches?
Report acornel March 16, 2011 9:28 PM GMT
Dundee - Hearts = 1-0
It looks like a player from Dundee woke up and scored while everybody were sleeping Laugh
Report acornel March 16, 2011 9:32 PM GMT
Is Chelsea playing in Premier League or Serie A?Happy
Report acornel March 17, 2011 9:06 AM GMT
DAY 19: Football: -€5.66 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  -€5.66
===========================================================

Football     Showing 1 - 4 of 4 markets
Market     Start time     Settled date     Profit/loss (€)
Football / Jorge Wilstermann v Internacional : Correct Score     16-Mar-11 22:30     17-Mar-11 00:19     0.14
Football / Chelsea v FC Copenhagen : Correct Score     16-Mar-11 19:45     16-Mar-11 21:40     -4.60
Football / Dundee Utd v Hearts : Correct Score     16-Mar-11 19:45     16-Mar-11 21:38     0.00
Football / Gent v Standard : Correct Score     16-Mar-11 19:30     16-Mar-11 21:22     -1.20
=================================================

I continued to BACK because I find it could be the way to "quickly" increase my bank ... in fact it is not easy to have your BACK matched because it is more a matter of "luck" - in many cases a goal is scored during the last minutes.
Report acornel March 17, 2011 7:02 PM GMT
Fixtures 17 March / Zenit St Petersburg v Twente / Correct Score    
    3 - 1     Back     14026519831     17-Mar-11
19:00           9     2.00         9     17-Mar-11 19:01    
   
Fixtures 17 March / Zenit St Petersburg v Twente / Correct Score    
    2 - 0     Lay     14026509054     17-Mar-11
18:59           5.5     2.00         5.5     17-Mar-11 19:00    
   
Fixtures 17 March / Paris St-G v Benfica / Correct Score    
    1 - 1     Lay     14026503644     17-Mar-11
18:59           4.9     2.00         4.8     17-Mar-11 18:59
Report acornel March 17, 2011 7:26 PM GMT
Fixtures 17 March / Man City v Dinamo Kiev / Correct Score    
    1 - 0     Lay     14026925009     17-Mar-11
19:26           2.64     2.00         2.56     17-Mar-11 19:26
Report acornel March 17, 2011 7:56 PM GMT
Lost all LAYs on inter-european matches ... maybe I should stop here today.
Report acornel March 17, 2011 8:26 PM GMT
Open start of the match:

Fixtures 17 March / Liverpool v Braga / Half Time Score    
    0 - 0     Lay     14027850687     17-Mar-11
20:25           2.28     12.00         2.26     17-Mar-11 20:25
Report acornel March 17, 2011 9:03 PM GMT
DAY 20: Soccer: -€38.08 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  -€38.08

=======================================
Soccer     Showing 1 - 6 of 6 markets
Market     Start time     Settled date     Profit/loss (€)
Soccer / Liverpool v Braga : Half Time Score     17-Mar-11 20:05     17-Mar-11 20:56     -15.12
Soccer / Zenit St Petersburg v Twente : Correct Score     17-Mar-11 18:00     17-Mar-11 19:57     -11.00
Soccer / Man City v Dinamo Kiev : Correct Score     17-Mar-11 18:00     17-Mar-11 19:55     -3.12
Soccer / Paris St-G v Benfica : Correct Score     17-Mar-11 18:00     17-Mar-11 19:55     -7.60
Soccer / Spartak Moscow v Ajax : Correct Score     17-Mar-11 18:00     17-Mar-11 19:55     -1.38
Soccer / Jorge Wilstermann v Internacional : Correct Score     16-Mar-11 22:30     17-Mar-11 00:19     0.14

===================================================

Wrong decisions today and got bored at the end (see my last bet) ... I've also lost my patience so the result of today should be no surprise.

The experiment end up today after loosing my starting bank (50E). I will take some time to analyze what was good and what went bad and maybe I'll come back with other ideas.

Good luck!
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