What kind of punter are you??

My weaknesses are hungry and sleepy.

Slow horses, Fast women

Same as Lori.

Lost 100+ yesterday when I went to make a cup of tea.

the type that always doubles stakes after a loss

what kind of punter am i ? prob like 99% of people on here MUG PUNTER

My big strength is a total lack of discipline.  Discipline costs profit.

It seems my great weakness is I don't withdraw money from accounts when I win, apparently this is essential to turning a profit.  It must be costing me loads having full enough coffers to attack hard when I see big value, without needing to deposit. 

I always think you should learn to turn a weakness into a strength.  I haven't yet mastered turning a strength into a weakness, one day I'll work out how. 

I once went to make a cup of tea and was £500 richer when I came back. That's a lot more fun than losing money

My biggest weaknesses are :

1) lack of automation
2) lack of funds (I use what many would consider a 'big bank', but would really like to operate like the Swedish market maker with £Millions, spread across hundreds of markets).
3) low turnover ratio (I know people with the same profit on turnover percentage as me, and only slightly more funds, who are able to make more than 10x as much, simply because they can get 10x as many bets matched as me in a given timeframe with the same edge.

I should say they can get 10x as much money matched as me, the actual number of bets is pretty much irrelevant.

what is turnover ratio/% when it's at 'ome?

Investor, how come you don't automate more then? Your first and third weaknesses are the same aren't they?

Talking about the Swedish MM, I've often wondered how they can monopolise the markets to such a profitable extent. I mean why don't other bot specialists undercut them with a slightly tighter less profitable spread?

Because they have the software behind them to do it. I imagine they invested a lot just for that.

ALthough they are getting squeezed, definately.

And as a P.S you will notice their M.O is changing all the time. They are quite clever at getting players to give up their money. Be confident and sit tight or you will go updownupdownupupdownupdownupdowndownupup with a net of -0.1

By: This user is offline. The Investor
Date Joined: 05 Jun 06 Add contact | Send message When: 14 Feb 11 17:04

My biggest weaknesses are :



Still using about 500 standard Betfair screens [;)]

Still using about 500 standard Betfair screens

You must have one humungous screen

Seriously, the key to making money here is to scale horizontally across markets.

A while back I tried to interest a couple of the software vendors in making their software support horizontal scaling, but they simply didn't get it.

Most punters have no discipline, have no brains or initiative, as a result they will continue to lose, they might back a 3-1 winner every 5-6 races, but they'll then heap money on a trifecta or a pick the score and before you know it, what you won is lost already.

betting is like drinking, you go to the bar and order your same drink every time so why not bet the same way, find a winning percentage keep to it increase your bets in line with your bank, easy.

Like laying dog 4 in greyhound races if it is between 4-1 and 8-1. Dog 4 wins less than 12% of races and of that 12% 75% of the time it is the favourite?? Did you know that. Or what about tracks where the 1 box wins 80% of its races if it is under 4-1.

Knowledge is power and punters by nature haven't the brains to take the time to gain knowledge and educate themselves. They have a quick look at a form guide pick out something carrying not much weight drawn OK about 6-1ish and hope the jockey gets a good ride????

hardly a recipe for success???

What about laying the top weight in all class 1 races??? what % of those get beat?? 90% get rolled did you know that?? why not?? your looking for an edge aren't you?? something that churns out winning bets bet after bet after bet????

What about laying horses drawn 10 and wider in maidens over 1300m or more with 14 starters or more paying under 6-1, how many of those win?? Fk all.

There are dozens of edges to find, but how many will do the research to find the results on an idea???


Most ppls weakness is they are just bone lazy.

By: This user is online. pxb
Date Joined: 07 Jun 10 Add contact | Send message When: 15 Feb 11 01:53 Still using about 500 standard Betfair screens

You must have one humungous screen


Ask Investor. Christ knows how he fits it all in !

Most punters are just poor judges,it's as simple as that and 90% who bet probably do very little form if any, more the merrier doesn't really effect me as i only mainly bet through accounts anyway.
I've worked from 9am till early hours most days for eight years and has left me financially secure for life,if you're a good judge and put the hours in there are no limits.

laying the 4 at angle park today, 2 out of 2 so far, I imagine I'll get 6 out of 6, but then I'll be ridiculed for it, as no one can supposedly have such a high % of winning bets.

Pigs ass.

There you go I just gave all you ppl 1 of my systems.

I got plenty more for all sorts of racing and sports.

Statistics over time will show you wether your onto something or not.

What say you Investor?

Even with Chrome which hardly ever crashes, I can't manage more than 10 or 12 markets at one time on a single physical screen.

Don't feel obliged to reveal any secrets, but I can't see how you can manage 500 concurrent markets. And I know rather more about computers than most.

angle park

3 out of 3

I didn't literally mean   500 markets. I was exaggerating slightly.


It's only 400.

investor isnt answering questions tonight
see my thread
;(

biggest weakness: laziness.

Gold Coast
Your point is presumably that the market makers setting the prices you are taking advantage of are lazy also ?
All these stats are available to them to price the mkts. correctly.
Why aren't these " pros" using them properly.
That is something I would be more interested in knowing the answer of.

^ Good point.

You always have to ask why the great bet you've just backed/layed was offered in the first place

I'm a mug punter

I reckon I could turn the average punter into a winning punter in less than 1 week??

how?

would involve them paying a large sum of money upfront in exchange for you teaching them?

nah it's all mathematical. Say you've got 15 horses in a race so mathematically you have a 1 in 15 chance of backing a winner. Yet if you lay a horse you have a 1 in 15 chance of losing cause you have 14 running for you.

Tell me, how do you like to bet and on what sport, I reckon within 2 hours I could find a profitable angle for you.

I prefer to lay a horse that statistically proven over 12 months+ will not win the race or has a very low chance of winning, one system I use shows this type of horse wins less than 10% of its races.

Now today I said I'd lay dog 4 at Angle park, 11 races dog 4 didn't win a race, but you could have only laid number 4 five times due to its very long SP in some races IE 30-1+,

but we still got 5 out of 5.

My horse racing system showed 4 out of 4 today.

Think of something random, like horse number 6 drawn wider than 8 carrying 57Kgs see how ofetn it loses?? just keep searching till you find a combination.

Say soccer for example, go through the Hyundai a league results, you'll see that there is almost always a goal scored after the 75 minute mark.

So at 75 minute mark lay the current score, you'll get $1.60 about it every day, or back it at 70 minute mark $1.70 then at the 75 minute mark lay out at $1.60

plenty of ways to win.

GoldCoastinvestor Is right, there are some anomalies to be found if you look for them.

I know of a few, and one particular one that selects an average of 3 bets per Saturday on city meets (Australia) has returned over
50% profit per 100 bets for nearly 10 years.

2010 figures returned ~
44 winners from 153 bets
strike rate 3.48 with an average dividend of 6.05 (At BSP)
Which worked out to 73.97% profit per 100 bets.

Early in the year BSP was not available so used prices at the jump.

Compounding that up at max outlay of 10% of bank * chance of selection winning on a 1K start bank
produced a gross profit of 17,268.11 (commission not calculated or deducted)

I have, in the past on here been accused of being mathematically challenged amongst others and the most
recent a couple of days ago of being a clueless mug.

I often wonder if those that made those comments are making as much as I am.

But don't the odds reflect the times that things do or don't occur as per the past.
That why in fact there are odds, as nothing is certain.
You still have to find the odds that reflect good value.
Nothing you're saying seems to indicate you are doing this.
For example if goals "--are almost always scored in the last 15 minutes of full time", why are odds on the current score being put up at 1.60 ?.
Why are the mkt. makers so unaware of this apparent ( to you at least) obvious fact of virtually guaranteed late scoring ? Are they lazy or what are they exactly ?.
And if they are lazy, surely they won't continue to offer up such
" free money ". Are they also profoundly stupid ? Is that whay you're saying ?

Btw I'd be a bit worried about totally believing somebody with the chat name " Goldcoastinvestor."
Lots of those bankrupts floating around today methinks.

Not that I'm in any way suggesting our poster on here is a banrupt, but rather that his choice of chatname does not inspire confidence.
Not like the fineness of frog hair does of course.

Compound
Not disputing that anomalies crop up periodically, but do they last all that long, particularly if they get into the public domain in any form or manner ? That's all I'm really saying.

I would say say that his name is because he lives on the Gold Coast (Surfers Paradise area)

I have mentioned this before, which is another anomaly. Female only races which include 2yo fillies, 3yo fillies and
Mares only races there is a distinct trait that these females are pack animals ~ they like to run in the pack not on the rails or
on the extreme outside. Using this logic and restricting your lays to barrier 1 and prepost less than 10.00 last year city meets
in Melbourne there was 100 races with 52 selections and only 5 won. Average price BSP 4.59 average strike rate 10.4.

If you run a few of these sorts of anomalies at the same time, you can do very well from it.

You certainly could.

Frog appears to fall into the typical punter group of not being able to formulate an idea research it and implement it, if he could he'd agree with what I am saying.

Have you by chance gone through the A league results to see if what I have stated is correct?? it appears not. Or what about my post on laying dog number 4???? easy to be a critic than actually do some research isn't it?

Ppl will always want a bet regardless of the price, that is why punters go broke, they pick at best 1 winner in 3 at odds usually around 3-1 so they mathematically can not make a profit, you'll go broke slowly week by week bet by bet unless you can identify a trend.

My forum auto search software found this fred as A League was mentioned twice.  Could I ask you all to completely ignore the timing of goals scored stats?

Thank you.

A few days ago I was asking if anyone knew of a source for goals scored by minute in matches, because I suspect that the A league isn't an anomaly.

Incidentally the A league gave me my first reliable edge on BF. Still trade every match.

Australian Wallet last 7 days

Australian Rules: AUD17.43 | Soccer: AUD558.90

I'm still waiting for an answer as to why the mkt. makers are being so foolish as to offer odds so apparently completely out of whack with reality.
Being able to bet on a " virtual certainty " at well over 2.50 is too good to be true.
And if it is true and it isn't just a one off anomaly and is translatable into any and all leagues as pxb is implying, then all the professional mkt makers on football CS prices IR are the " mugs", not the run of the mill punters.
Is this the case ?

Why would a market maker care if some of his prices are value to the backer as long as there are other punters taking his bad value offers ?

Why would a mkt. maker put up prices that are not just slightly off value, but way off value to a point of extreme loss potential to him/her.

I don't know anything about the markets that has been talked about here, but I do know something about market making and you are seriously deluded if you think the market makers know the correct prices on all selections on the markets they operate in.

Not really saying that Eddie.
Btw I thought Australians couldn't bet IR on anything, yet aren't these posters pxb and GoldCoastinvestor in Australia.
Also I don't think I've ever seen an Aussie league game available for live betting ( could be wrong on this though ).
I'm missing something in all this quite apparently.

Plenty of Aussie league matches available inrunning if it's soccer we're talking about.  I've never seen decent liquidity on them inrunning thoigh.

paulme
Date Joined: 20 Jan 11
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When: 14 Feb 11 17:32
what is turnover ratio/% when it's at 'ome?


Not sure what you mean?

Trevh
Date Joined: 21 Jul 06
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When: 15 Feb 11 00:49
Investor, how come you don't automate more then? Your first and third weaknesses are the same aren't they?

Talking about the Swedish MM, I've often wondered how they can monopolise the markets to such a profitable extent. I mean why don't other bot specialists undercut them with a slightly tighter less profitable spread?


They're related, but not quite the same. People trading horse racing and tennis in particular, can turn over huge sums (manually) using a relatively small bank. Even in football there will be people turning over loads more than me. But yes, I could probably triple my turnover and maintain the same edge (triply my profit) if I had a brilliant app that worked exactly how I wanted it too. There are a few obstacles to getting that done though.

pxb
Date Joined: 07 Jun 10
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When: 15 Feb 11 02:23
What say you Investor?

Even with Chrome which hardly ever crashes, I can't manage more than 10 or 12 markets at one time on a single physical screen.

Don't feel obliged to reveal any secrets, but I can't see how you can manage 500 concurrent markets. And I know rather more about computers than most.

It's the same for me, I have a max of 13 markets open per screen, but I do have six screens. I use firefox even though chrome is probably better now, as all my 'support' apps were built for firefox, and it would now be time consuming /costly to alter everything. I expect the new multicore support version of firefox will be a lot better, but who knows when they'll finally release it.

FINE AS FROG HAIR Joined: 12 Mar 07
Replies: 2251 15 Feb 11 15:08 
Why would a mkt. maker put up prices that are not just slightly off value, but way off value to a point of extreme loss potential to him/her.

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because it saves him working out what true value is.

OK viva, all is perfectly clear now.

I'm with Frog, the MM's aren't stupid, and in the case in question of late goals involving the correct score markets, the MM's get far more matched on their lay offers than their back offers, as it's obviously an ever diminishing price in that market, where punters back the lay offers far more so than the back offers, by a large margin. Anyone who doesn't believe that, try undercutting the bot by a tick each side, and you'll see that you too will get matched mainly on your lay offers, and virtually nothing on your back offers.

glad to help froggy

Mucho gracias senor presidente.

frog do u work for betfair

I feel like the invisible man sometimes, haha.

Be thankful I don't.
With my computer related betting skills, you really would be all in serious trouble.

frog what kind of bets do u do on here

Goldcoastinvestor, I like the cut of your jib, you make very good points. I suppose you get out what you put in!

Would you think that its easier to make a profit on horses than football. Do you bet on any football markets?

3) low turnover ratio (I know people with the same profit on turnover percentage as me, and only slightly more funds, who are able to make more than 10x as much, simply because they can get 10x as many bets matched as me in a given timeframe with the same edge.

sorry what's turnover ratio and turnover percentage mate?

ive been a sat tv punter

get the racing post/sun in morn

go to local cafe--latte/bacon roll

ive had a 3/timer--still waing on 4/5

lucky31

small-stakes

bet for fun not ruin

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went to track for first time--yesterday musselburgh

parade ring

i was stunned how beautiful horses are close-up--a whole diff perspective than on tv

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you def need to have betting stake/plan before you go to a track

you can get carried away