General Betting
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11 Feb 11
21:31
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19 Mar 06
Regarding the calculation of how many goals will be scored in a football match. I read that the relative strength of teams is more important than goalscoring records,so these two issues can be weighted accordingly. If it is fair to say two mid-table teams playing each other can expect to score 2.5 goals between them in a match ( leaving aside the recent goalscoring form of these teams which can be then taken into account to a lesser extent), what happens when they are two top sides of close to equal strength. ?
For example, 10th place side Vs 11th place side expect 2.5 goals (before goalscoring record taken into account to adjust this figure higher or lower). But, say, Man Utd V Chelsea. Similar in strength, both side could be expected to have games with,say, 3.0 goals (generalisation i know!) if at home to West Ham or some relegation threatened side, but what when they play each other, is 2.5 a fair figure before weighting this and then factoring in goalscoring records of each side?. I understand that this general figure of 2.5 would be different for each league, and can change dramatically when goalscoring records are than taken into account and appropriately weighted.
Any ideas?
Missing
For example, 10th place side Vs 11th place side expect 2.5 goals (before goalscoring record taken into account to adjust this figure higher or lower). But, say, Man Utd V Chelsea. Similar in strength, both side could be expected to have games with,say, 3.0 goals (generalisation i know!) if at home to West Ham or some relegation threatened side, but what when they play each other, is 2.5 a fair figure before weighting this and then factoring in goalscoring records of each side?. I understand that this general figure of 2.5 would be different for each league, and can change dramatically when goalscoring records are than taken into account and appropriately weighted.
Any ideas?
Missing
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Replies: 9
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0.3 for the home team supremacy
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Irregardless of table position or recent form, or injuries or anything else that may or may not affect the outcome ?
Honest questions from someone who has never ever based a bet on goal expectation or supremacy or goal whatever in his whole life. Not looking for any " secrets" or " "edges" though Rocket. |
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If you have rated the teams as equal (which is how I understood his post) then the only advantage is the home team advantage. IMO.
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Does that mean then that anything can be expected to happen goal total wise, in these cases of even rating ?
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You'd expect more goals from Arsenal v Borrussia Dortmund (equally matched) than Stoke v Blackburn (also about equal) due to style of play
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Yes, i agree there, but how do we quantify that. Maybe we can't. Apparently goalscoring form, number of goals etc is only about 25% of whats crucial in determining goal expectation. That part is easy to work out , its the fact that if 75% importance is due to relevant strengths of the teams, what if they are similar strength, and both score freely against weaker teams (for example) that i find harder to "measure".
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..and yes also agree team news crucial, eg Inter Milan with/without Eto'o large baring on goal expectation
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Is that Pullein's method Missingrib?
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One major flaw in Pullein's method, or at least the method I recall he mentions in his book, is his failure to differentiate between different types of games. e.g. home favourite / away favourite. As far as I remember his analysis appears to just lump all games together. Apologies to KP if I am doing him a disservice.
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