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General Betting
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01 Feb 11
05:51
Joined:
Date Joined:
27 May 06
Not many would do this ~
Lays , 50% of float
Back to win 6.00 and under, a combination of 'Kelly Criterion' and average edge on float.
Back to win over 6.00, Bets are overlay type, chance of winning times 50% of float.
Have been experimenting with excel , using solver and what if scenarios to come up with a Super Staking plan.
My current betting, lays and win bets have only been overlay betting to 10% of float which has been very profitable. However this new super staking, if applied
to the past ratings that I have supported would have almost trebled my profits.(for the whole of last year)
I decided to put together a spreadsheet to illustrate what happens.
If interested in the Spreadsheet it can be downloaded at ~
http://www.megaupload.com/?d=C2SIPRT6
The file is excel 2007. If your version of excel is earlier than that, Formulas and conditional formatting will not work.
Results are from beginning of year 2011.
Would be interested to hear if the download worked.
Click on regular download and when the seconds have ticked by click OK.
Nothing seems to happen but look in your documents and it should be there.
Lays , 50% of float
Back to win 6.00 and under, a combination of 'Kelly Criterion' and average edge on float.
Back to win over 6.00, Bets are overlay type, chance of winning times 50% of float.
Have been experimenting with excel , using solver and what if scenarios to come up with a Super Staking plan.
My current betting, lays and win bets have only been overlay betting to 10% of float which has been very profitable. However this new super staking, if applied
to the past ratings that I have supported would have almost trebled my profits.(for the whole of last year)
I decided to put together a spreadsheet to illustrate what happens.
If interested in the Spreadsheet it can be downloaded at ~
http://www.megaupload.com/?d=C2SIPRT6
The file is excel 2007. If your version of excel is earlier than that, Formulas and conditional formatting will not work.
Results are from beginning of year 2011.
Would be interested to hear if the download worked.
Click on regular download and when the seconds have ticked by click OK.
Nothing seems to happen but look in your documents and it should be there.
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Replies: 4
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No doubt...it is rather complex and dubious that it would perform better than Mr. Kelly would. I prefer to keep things simple .... there is a kind of elegance in simplicity.
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TheSnapper
As all my bets and lays are at BSP it is not possible to use 'Kelly'. On top of that using 'Kelly' on an average of 7 selections in an event is impracticable. If there was only one bet per event then 'Kelly' would be the preferred staking if taking a price that is offered. |
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Complexity rules eh Compound ?
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Just another way of skinning a cat!
If nothing else the spreadsheet can show what can be done with a few simple formulas, how to lay out a spreadsheet, how to keep tabs on performance and as a database for further study. Party on. |