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General Betting
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Is it possible to predict the price of 0-0 at half-time ( after goal-less 1st half obviously ) based on the pre-match price ? Is it a straight correlation from the pre-match figure ( ignoring red cards in this example )
Or is it as simple as just looking at what the HT correct score price is for 0-0 ?
Or is it as simple as just looking at what the HT correct score price is for 0-0 ?
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Replies: 34
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No it isn't that simple.
As someone else once said, the 0-0 HT shouldn't be more than the SQRT of the 0-0 FT But to get exact prices you'll have to study a little harder than that I'm afraid . |
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Turkish game on now . pre match 0-0 was 10.5/11 . Half time 0-0 was 2.9 ish. So you could predict that 0-0 would be 3.6 if it stays 0-0 at half time. but as rocket says, it depends how the game is going
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I think it's roughly correct to look at the HT c/s 0-0, it has to be or huge arbs would occur and the markets aren't that slack.
Rocket, did you mean "the 0-0 HT shouldn't be LESS than the SQRT of the 0-0 FT" ? because as far as I have observed it's nearly always more, i.e. KO 9.0 = HT 3.3 KO 16.0 = HT 4.5 KO 25.0 = HT 6.0 etc |
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trev, i think rocket means in the half time score market , pre match .
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Yeah sorry, the SQRT of 0-0 FT should not be less than 0-0 HT
But that is a general rule of thumb and not only will it not give you accurate prices but you'll find that in 99.999999% of cases, the market already knows this and as such it's a useful piece of tit-tat and nothing more. |
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"Turkish game on now . pre match 0-0 was 10.5/11 . Half time 0-0 was 2.9 ish."
No offence but that's a very poor example, that's not the norm, 2.9 @ ht is very very VERY low, even matches that kick off @ 8s wouldn't normally be that low. I'd expect a 10.5/11 ko to be closer to 4. |
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Christ, I'm confusing myself just typing it.
Right, The SQRT of 0-0 FT should always be more than 0-0 HT . |
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It's a moot point though
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I don'tquite agree rttf, that's not my experience. They're ballpark sqrt but it's not a hard and fast rule.
Let's look at the 6 kick offs now .. oh, API appears absolutely screwed. |
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 No, the original answer ... |
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Well 'almost' is the correct answer :) There's a rough calculation that'll give a bit of a guide. Almost :)
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What don't you agree with JC ?
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p.s it may be hard looking at the 6pm kick offs at... 7:02pm [;)]
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thanks for the feedback folks, i will do some more work checking out real time matches. As you say, nothing is set in stone, the way the match is panning out will influence prices of course.
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You won't find an accurate correlation between the two through that method.
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Well no, as of course it was around half time then so we'd have games with odds to look at right there and then, and even if they'd kicked off again, the graphs clearly show half time as it always levels off for a bit due to ht trading :P
What I don't agree with is the odds should be no more than sqrt of full time odds. In my experience, althought I might be wrong, I'm fairly sure it's quite often a little more. |
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No offence but that's a very poor example, that's not the norm, 2.9 @ ht is very very VERY low, even matches that kick off @ 8s wouldn't normally be that low. I'd expect a 10.5/11 ko to be closer to 4.
No way. We must be using different Betfairs's then, perhaps in parallel universes? Most matches at 8.0 won't be anywhere near as high as 2.9, even Augsburg kicking off now is 13.0 / 3.2. |
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He's not asking the HT score price, he's asking the FT 0-0 price AT HT, different ;)
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Yep thats what i meant JC, does get confusing with the 2 separate markets.
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Bit of confusion here.
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When I first started I assumed the HT 0-0 would be roughly same as FT 0-0 @ HT if still 0-0 as it's two 'equal' halves, but it (unless I AM in a parallel universe, let's not rule that out!) isn't, the 0-0 at HT will be higher by a reasonable bit.
I can only assume more goals are scored second half when 0-0 as legs get tired and players get sloppy, or they get more desperate and less cagey or something? |
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More goals are scored in the second half, correct.
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45/55%
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So, after a torturous route, we've finally given the full answer to the OP, and should congratulate ourselves for a job well done
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It wasn't me confused, I was responding to JC's post accusing Diggler's post of 18.27 to be wrong. It's actually spot on. JC had confused FT 0-0 at HT of 3.6, with 2.9 HT market.
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Quite interesting thread with no bitching, that deserves congratulations anyway
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Ahh sorrt trevh I stand corrected. I took "Half time 0-0 was 2.9 ish." as a complete sentence meaning "AT half time, 0-0 was 2.9ish", and obviously didn't read rest of post correctly. I wasn't following game so assumed half time I had been and gone.
I have very VERY rarely seen it @ 2.9 at half time, which is why I responded. Me bad  . |
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No worries JC.
I can only assume more goals are scored second half when 0-0 as legs get tired and players get sloppy, or they get more desperate and less cagey or something? Perversely, backing 0-0 at HT will show a greater profit than backing 0-0 at KO and greening up at HT, which suggests the odds at HT are a little too high across the board. |
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HT now in Augsburg game..
FT 0-0 price is now 4.6/4.7, considerably higher than the HT correct score 0-0 price ( 3.2 ) |
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Assuming you mean the FT price was 4.7 and the HT 3.2 then that looks ok
If not then I am confused. Especially with your opening sentence. |
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Precisely.
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Oooop no wait, we're talking about the FT price at HT
f*ckin hell |
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yep RTTF - thats what i meant
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looks like we get some free BF points this weekend
shhhhhhh ! |