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quick one. how do you work out the implied odds of a selection w/o one in the market?
for example, wanting to calculate prem winner w/o chelsea this season when odds were:
Chel 2.0
Man U 4.0
Ars 5.5
Man C 7.0
Liver 11.0
what would all the selections be w/o Chelsea here?
Realise Chel take 50% of the market so you would have to upscale their percentage chance to win by 50%.
Maths help wanted. thanks in advance
for example, wanting to calculate prem winner w/o chelsea this season when odds were:
Chel 2.0
Man U 4.0
Ars 5.5
Man C 7.0
Liver 11.0
what would all the selections be w/o Chelsea here?
Realise Chel take 50% of the market so you would have to upscale their percentage chance to win by 50%.
Maths help wanted. thanks in advance
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Removing Man U (As you can get it right by accident with a 50-50 shot)
So
Chelsea 2.0 = .500
Man U 4.0 = .250
Ars 5.5 = .182
Man C 7.0 = .143
Pool 11.0 =.091
Total 1.166
So, the overround is 16.6%, I'm going to assume you want to keep that the same.
Taking out Man U 1.166 - 0.25 = .916
Then:
Chelsea = .5/.916 = .546
Arsenal = .182/.916 = .199
Man C = .143/.916 = .156
Pool = .091/.916 = .099
BUT you want to retain the 16.6% overround (or you might not, in which case stop now)
so multiply each one by 1.166
Chelsea = .633
Arsenal = .232
Man C = .182
Pool = .115
Then to turn into odds,
it's 1/.633 for Chelsea = 1.58
1/.232 for Arsenal = 4.3
1/,182 for Man C = 5.5
1/.115 = 8.7 for Pool
There are quicker ways but that step by step allows you to stop where you like and write your own formula etc for excel if you need.
*Disclaimer: I've not slept much for two days, so could be errors.
So
Chelsea 2.0 = .500
Man U 4.0 = .250
Ars 5.5 = .182
Man C 7.0 = .143
Pool 11.0 =.091
Total 1.166
So, the overround is 16.6%, I'm going to assume you want to keep that the same.
Taking out Man U 1.166 - 0.25 = .916
Then:
Chelsea = .5/.916 = .546
Arsenal = .182/.916 = .199
Man C = .143/.916 = .156
Pool = .091/.916 = .099
BUT you want to retain the 16.6% overround (or you might not, in which case stop now)
so multiply each one by 1.166
Chelsea = .633
Arsenal = .232
Man C = .182
Pool = .115
Then to turn into odds,
it's 1/.633 for Chelsea = 1.58
1/.232 for Arsenal = 4.3
1/,182 for Man C = 5.5
1/.115 = 8.7 for Pool
There are quicker ways but that step by step allows you to stop where you like and write your own formula etc for excel if you need.
*Disclaimer: I've not slept much for two days, so could be errors.
Note that Chelsea are 1.84 if you remove the overround. Big difference!
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