football odds in running

rorebhoy, it depends on more than one thing, for instance
the goal expectancy for the match, when the first goal is
scored, which side scores the goal for starters. Certainly
too much to go into a post on this thread. GL.

It has changed remarkably over the past +-2 seasons for football.  Plenty of bots have been built that have "tightened" the view on what the odds should be.

Example, look at a graph of a graph when a 4/5 home team gets scored on:

The odds will move out on the team.  If they score in the first half, odds spike down to roughly the same place as if the match had been 0-0.

Then if the visitors score, the odds out and you can draw a line from 0-1 to 1-2 and it is a straight line.

The bots certainly don't bring alot into account (i.e. how a team performs down a goal / how the goal was scored / how the pressure had been till the goal was scored).

So when a goal in, a matter of taking your view on the game and deciding where the value at that moment is if you want to get in.

------
Another loop that has been scored:

LAY the draw then trade out when a team scores.
It used to be that no matter who scored, the odds move out from the initial start.  No more.  Home fave scores, odds will often move in further than where they were at the moment before the goal.

SUMMARY:
Look at the odds after a goal
Look at the match and decide where the value is.

SUMMARY:
Look at the odds after a goal
Look at the match and decide where the value is.

But wouldn't he need to know what the odds were prior to the goal,
and what they should be after the goal ?

I'd suggest just watching the odds in a few matches, and just noting a few yourself. There are plenty of them on. Inplay football odds can be wierd as sometimes they stubbornly don't seem to reflect the match you're watching, then other times, the odds DO. By which I mean the odds might stay very low on a favourite when they are clearly being outplayed, or under 1.5 might stay high when it's an unexpectedly dull match with few opportunities.

Whether it's bots or expectation, .. probably both. But last night on the late night game, the odds DID follow the way the match went, the home team shot up like a cliff and the away team odds collapsed a fair bit. Maybe no bots on it as not that big a market?

you must remember the players using software have a tremendous advantage in this,they play to the next level of decimal placing which is not available to the ordinary player on here,hope i explained that okay.

"hope i explained that okay."
No, you didn't, at all :) I'm 99.951% sure nobody can subdivide the odds any more than a web user, like lay 4.12 or whatever.

Kenilworth
SUMMARY:
Look at the odds after a goal
Look at the match and decide where the value is.

But wouldn't he need to know what the odds were prior to the goal,
and what they should be after the goal ?

Not necessarily since you are assessing the value "at that moment". 

Man U are playing Sunderland at home and are up at 3/5 on the match.

The pressure is strong for the first 30 minutes, Sunderland gets a corner and on the corner score going 0-1.

The odds on Man U had drifted a bit starting at 15 minutes.  The goal, says, pushes it to 11/8.

The decision is if 11/8 is value at 31 minutes.  You may decide that based on the pressure and type of goal, 11/8 is value.

My personal approach is that the odds presented at the start of an event are for the "whole event".  Value is assessed pre-event and are factored into decisions during the in-running.  Horse racing and tennis are great examples of being able to position bets based on your assessment as well as 're-assess' as the event unfolds.

My view is that a 3/5 (1.60) chance went a goal down
after 30 mins, I would have them a lot bigger than 11/8,
whether it was ManU or anyone else. A 1.6 chance is a
1.6 chance. I don't think I have ever seen a 1.6 chance
go 2.38 when a goal down after 30 mins, more like 3.5.

rorebhoy

If you sign-up for Betangel's free five day usage, then you can fire-up Soccer Mystic and model all these scenarios. This tool can also be used in-play to determine where the odds should settle just after a goal has been scored. Very useful.

I was trying to remember the name of the program: Soccer Mystic (per post).

Yes, when that came out, the odds began to level out more after goals.  More and more bots doing it.  Again, ignore the bots and form your own opinions.

Kenilworth, the odds were for example purposes though I have found the odds are bouncing out less and less compared to years before.

that soccer mystic was laughably innacurate

inaccurate *

do u really think im gonna tell ya ,
took me 3 years to master it

Is there some form of generalised equation or table of values the bots all work from somewhere?

If all the bots had a different equation, they'd fight to calculate odds and it'd become more just bots chasing the market?

just checking - that is a very good point

bot use same tables of values

eg goal expectation is 2.6 and it is 0-0 after 22 mins = under 2.5 =1.51 under 3.5=1.18 under 4.5 =1.08

Does this table exist somewhere jonny?

Kevin Pullein gives basic tables for in-running match price and overs/unders in this:

'The Racing Post definitive guide to betting exchanges'.

Well worth a fiver second hand on Amazon.

I'm a trader, you can buy it brand new from me for £10.50 + P&P [;)]

You can use a combination of different lookup tables

Or use the starting odds

Or use a combination of both .

I might get that book actually, thanks. Having watched a lot of odds in play, it's plain that certain matches ignore odds changes versus time compared to 'the norm' though.