Betting strategy?

1. Judging Correct score markets , EPL/European Football .
2. Studied for 1-2 years (, minimal study these days.
3. 5 days a week ,30 hours ,30-40 matches.
4. Yes.
5. Yes.

Glad to be of some help .

This is probably the most likely answer you'll get back from anyone who is being completely honest and making money.

"Yes I have a betting strategy it's one that helps me capitalise on my edge that i have found using lots of statistical analysis, but there's no way i'm going to tell you what my edge is as I would then lose my edge. I study and research my bets loads and bet all the time and back and lay and follow the Kelly staking system."

I do hope that you get more helpful, useful responses than this though, but thought i'd at least offer this one in case you don't get much response.

good way to answer, simple but effective.

1. Trading Tennis
2. Learning about the players in the first place took a while but now i know about them all i usually spend maybe 5/10 mins per match just to confirm my thoughts.
3. When ever there is tennis on.
4. Yes
5. Yes of course.

There are multiple ways to put a winning strategy to use i think ,it's taking that risk with a limited bank ...that's the hard part .

I only bet when I have saved up a bank I can afford to lose. As above it's having a decent sized bank to begin with, so over the last few-years I may have not have bet for months!

I do no research.

When I have a bank to play with I bet everyday in the UK and Aussie horse racing.

I Lay. As I above I would never reveal how exactly as I would lose any advantage I believe I have.

My stakes change depending on the odds of the present horse and how much I need to win to make a profit.

Goonermike Joined: 27 Sep 10
Replies: 6 26 Jan 11 13:23 
I only bet when I have saved up a bank I can afford to lose. As above it's having a decent sized bank to begin with, so over the last few-years I may have not have bet for months!



That comment suggests you go to work save up then, eventually, blow your bank then save again and repeat the process

Step 1: Find edge/value
Step 2: Stake accordingly
Step 3: Profit

U.A's is probably the best answer you'll get, and certainly what I would have written.

Just interested to hear what your betting strategy is? Do you take a lot of time to 'study/research' your bets? how frequently do you bet? Do you alternate stakes? Back/lay?

1. I bet when I have an edge.
2. I take more time than most would believe working on finding stuff.
3. Probably 50-60 hours a week, that's not counting the research stuff.
4. Yes
5. They're the same thing.

Yes...but how do you know you have an edge?

1. Judging Match odds market.
2. Never stop studying.
3. 7 days a week.
4. Yes.
5. Yes.

jimmy,

If you analyzed a random series of bets, you could work out exactly what the probability is of getting a certain positive or negative PnL by using statistical methods.

If you're making money, you probably apply some kind of method. If the assumptions that lead you to make betting decisions are giving you the level of profit you would expect, it seems reasonable to assume that what you are doing is working, and it's not just due to luck. After a while it becomes more and more improbable that what you are doing is random.

The lower the variance of the returns you are getting, the easier it is to determine that it is skill that is leading you to profit. Once you pay PC it pays to increase variance artificially though.

key is to replicate what the market maker does on betfair and you will have consistent profits.

I trade the correct score markets..when liquidity is sufficient...very rarely let a game go in play...initial stake can be anything from £200 to £1000, no more than that due to rare but costly internet/betfair crashes. Yes it takes experience and in my case, years of watching the markets.

I should just add that in 99% of cases, i only trade TWO particular scores...i wont say which two though.

Everyone is a winner on Betfair.

so for example sweetchildofmine:

back 0-1 on an away team who is perceived to be better? then wait for those odds to get shorters and lay?

I only bet when I have saved up a bank I can afford to lose. As above it's having a decent sized bank to begin with, so over the last few-years I may have not have bet for months!



That comment suggests you go to work save up then, eventually, blow your bank then save again and repeat the process

Buzzer, you're spot on, been using the same system for six-years lol, but hoping my lack of discipline and patience were the reasons for it's constant downfall!

paulol..youre on the right track but 0-1 isnt the score id be interested in...but yes if for example you did your research and team A 8 hours before kick off is 1.9 to win, you then discover team B have a couple of late injury scares..its then perfectly reasonable to assume team A will then contract in price and so on

if your betting to a consistant pattern and have an edge, then you will be profitable log term.

i lay to a percentage of my bank including profit, 3.5% liability its all the gearing you need.
everytime my bank hits a new high, and i hit a loser, i reduce my liabilty to 3%, then if i hit another loser before i recoup my losses back to the previous high of my bank, i reduce again to 2.5% liability until i recoup, it can be a slow process getting back to th previous high ad 3.5% liabilty, however it protects the profits already made against varince and a bad dip, the edge i have ensures that i do recover and march on.

hi teco,
U.A. is bang on the money. John Kelly couldn't have said it better. However, I would like to add that there are always areas in sports to find an edge, and not everyone is paranoid about revealing their edge. Some edges are always available due to the nature of the markets.

I add more details on my blog about my challenge to compound a small bank into a sume large enough to buy a home in Florida. I hope you can get some good ideas there.

you are gambling .. you are a gambler ,

Everyone who thinks they have an edge is paranoid about anyone
finding out what it is, how many edges are there ? Not many you
can be sure. Mine ? I bet against the Exchange market moves,
especially those that have no particular reason.

kenilworth you mean like unders in the blackpool v liverpool game where gerrard out and unders smashed in even though gerrard out meant a greater expectation of goals for Liverpool.[;)]

No Johnny, I didn't see that one. I was referring to the likes of
this evening Bury v Shrewsbury 9 corners or less, also B'burn v WBA,
Bolton v Chelsea, Liverpool v Everton (overs), Colchester v AFC,
etc, etc Any one can cherry pick after the event, including me.