General Betting
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16 Jan 11
21:00
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Date Joined:
12 Mar 07
into the secondary divisions do you go looking for " value " in footbball.
eg
Do you go into the Blue Sq premier league ?
The low Scottish divisions?
Do you go below serie B in Italy ?
Do you touch 2nd Div Greek or Turkish football etc etc.
How professional and/or trustworthy are these low tier games/players ?
eg
Do you go into the Blue Sq premier league ?
The low Scottish divisions?
Do you go below serie B in Italy ?
Do you touch 2nd Div Greek or Turkish football etc etc.
How professional and/or trustworthy are these low tier games/players ?
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There was an interesting although somewhat dated (and probably exaggerated) article about a supposedly pro gambler who found value in 3rd div scottish footy. He noticed that there was no home advantage.
How true it was, or is now, is unkown. But food for thought. |
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And you also have to realise that if any value does exist, you'll have to find it yourself.
Who finds an edge in the greek 2nd division and then shares it ? [:x] |
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Rocket
I'm really more looking for opinions on whether these lower leagues are really all that " professional ". At what level do they really become part timers for example ? |
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Are you implying there's a correlation between value in soccer matches and the ability of the players, or did you ask two unrelated questions to save pixel space?
Just curious. |
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Sure just curious.
No I was just wondering if whether the lower the dicvisions you go, the lower the ability/full time professionalism of the players, is the general quality of the odds assessments being made by the market makers equally poorer.? |
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Perhaps the higher the divisions you go the lower worth of the players.Could you imagine players in the Serbian 3rd division rolling around clutching their ankles after they brush off someones shinpad?Who knows it all depends on whether current circumstances favour the carrot being dangled or not.I know where I stand
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Tks greenviking. I'll get back to you in a couple of years if and when I manage to decipher the hidden meanings of your post.
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Can anyone at least tell me at what divisional levels players become the local butchers, bakers, milkmen etc, that is part timers and not full time pros.?
Below Serie B in Italy, are they full timers ? Below 2nd Div in Spain.?nd Div in Greece, Turkey ? Div 2/3 in Scotland ? The regional Blue Sq leagues in England etc etc ? In other simple words, when does the full time professionalism go out of the game ? |
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The odds assessments tend to get poorer but overrounds tend to get bigger to compensate.
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*That's in general in sport, it possibly doesn't hold for soccer, but it holds for most things I bet on
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Odds assessments will naturally be poorer if their is less money at stake. So, yes, there is greater value to be had in more obscure leagues. Indeed, if I were starting out as a punter on football I would look at the lower leagues first.
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Players in the Scottish Prem and Scottish 1st are all Full-Time. The rest are part-time
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Thank you Rocket.
Do you or anybody else know this sort of info. about any or all of the other low divions I mentioned elsewhere ? |
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3% net margin [as a % of turnover] acheivable in all leagues via stats
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Rocket to the FACE Joined: 28 Oct 08
Replies: 8570 16 Jan 11 21:02 There was an interesting although somewhat dated (and probably exaggerated) article about a supposedly pro gambler who found value in 3rd div scottish footy. He noticed that there was no home advantage. How true it was, or is now, is unkown. But food for thought. Rocket, I remember the article you mention but I was sceptical as it was a bit 'after the event' which is not unusual that someone will claim to have known about before anyone else. I believe away sides had a period of winning more than homes and all sort of theories were put up except the one that may have been the right one, that being that it was just a blip, and has corrected itself since. The only diff between Scottish Lower divs and the other leagues is slightly more goals which inevitably less draws, something the bookmakers are aware of and price up accordingly. I don't give it much attention so I may be wrong. |
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My basic problem/concern in all this, is that I don't feel really comfortable in gambling on the efforts of part timers.
I would like to extend as far as possible the spectrum of matches I punt on, but am averse to going into these lower divisions or Eastern Europe in general for that matter, but also for other reasons ( such as widespread corruption/match fixing) there. |
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FAFH, There are about 100 matches in England and Scotland this
week. How many matches do you need to chose from ? |
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Never enough.
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was that well known pro gambler Tony Bloom - founder of premierbet and now owner of Brighton ?
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?
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Yeah that was the guy./
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I think you mean Tony Ansell rather than Tony Bloom.
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there's an additional pronlem with betting lower league, in that some lower division games abroad are clearly out and out crooked, which has to be factored in if you're leaving up offers rather than taking what's there at a poor overround.
I think it would arguably be possible to come up with a system that would identify value in serie b, c1, c2, but still lose after commission and fixxes if it was based on putting up offers at value. |
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Serie b is fixed you think.
That's a bit too high profile isn't it ? |
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Btw can you tell me at what level in the Englih leagues the players and managers become part time.
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no, there have been some absolutely clear as daylight fixxes in s-b. games where the draw price suddenly crashes as low as 1.2 pregame, and doesn't respond to goals being scored.
search serie b on forum beta and you'll find some examples. piacenza albinoleffe was the last one, I think. |
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Anything being done about it ?
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not yet, no.
was a discussion on here a couple of weeks back as to whether BF should/would start voiding pre-game on matches with these patterns. I'll try and find it and ttt it - some interesting points were made on both sides, in amongst the usual shouting. |
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just ttt'ed it if you're interested, but it's in football.
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Thank you. I'll look at it.
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