General Betting
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I see that the academic world of psychology has gone into meltdown with the agreed publishing of Prof Daryl Bem’s paper “Feeling The Future” in the highly respected Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.
Daryl Bem is no crackpot – but a highly respected and seasoned academic. He claims that he has conducted experiments in extra-sensory perception (ESP) that show, for example, that people are able to predict the future with statistically better than random results. In one particular experiment he was able to show a 53% success rate against an expected 50% random expectation.
Here’s the link to his paper: http://dbem.ws/FeelingFuture.pdf (about page 7 – 8 for the 53% experiment)
Now if he’s right (and I have to say to me his evidence seems rather compelling), that should allow us to predict the outcome of sporting events with a significant edge. I have three questions:
1. Does the market automatically discount the effects of ESP?
2. What experiments can we do on sporting events to examine the veracity of his claims?
3. Is anybody interested in contributing both to the thinking and structuring of the experiments, and to the execution of them?
Many may think I'm mad - but hey, it could be worth a look.
Daryl Bem is no crackpot – but a highly respected and seasoned academic. He claims that he has conducted experiments in extra-sensory perception (ESP) that show, for example, that people are able to predict the future with statistically better than random results. In one particular experiment he was able to show a 53% success rate against an expected 50% random expectation.
Here’s the link to his paper: http://dbem.ws/FeelingFuture.pdf (about page 7 – 8 for the 53% experiment)
Now if he’s right (and I have to say to me his evidence seems rather compelling), that should allow us to predict the outcome of sporting events with a significant edge. I have three questions:
1. Does the market automatically discount the effects of ESP?
2. What experiments can we do on sporting events to examine the veracity of his claims?
3. Is anybody interested in contributing both to the thinking and structuring of the experiments, and to the execution of them?
Many may think I'm mad - but hey, it could be worth a look.
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i supposed that what you're talking about its called intuition, right??
The term intuition is used to describe "thoughts and preferences that come to mind quickly and without much reflection"
The term intuition is used to describe "thoughts and preferences that come to mind quickly and without much reflection"
I'm not sure, but that could well be part of it.
At some point he suggests that there is leakage of future knowledge back to the present. So I guess if you were to bet on say 1000 horse races, and let's say you looked at the results of 500 of them after the event, and the other 500 you didn't bother, you should perform better on those that you looked at afterwards.
At some point he suggests that there is leakage of future knowledge back to the present. So I guess if you were to bet on say 1000 horse races, and let's say you looked at the results of 500 of them after the event, and the other 500 you didn't bother, you should perform better on those that you looked at afterwards.
you could read something about "gestalt" also beefie
Brendanuk1 - that was my first thought. But lets say there was a market on the tossing of a fair coin which should be a straight forward 50:50 shot. If ESP had been factored in taking Bem's 53% as an example it should be priced 53:47.
Maybe market would be formed as 50:50 by stats modellers. Could a gut instinct-er be long term profitable is the question. if they are long term profitable they should move the odds, imo
Interesting - would there perhaps be a tussle between the clairvoyant (53:47) and the stats modellers (50:50)? If it were me and I saw anything other than 50:50, having done my best to ensure it wasn't a bent coin, I'd take what I saw to be the value and drive the price back to 50:50, which of course the clairvoyant would find very attractive.
Suppose unless the clairvoyant was very rich & understood nothing about betting and was going all in each time they would have trouble moving a liquid market.
Might invest in tea leaves instead of tea bags
Might invest in tea leaves instead of tea bags
Amateurs, it's not how you do it:
1. You need a lamb.
2. Build an alter in the form of a heart.
3. There must be exactly four of you. Dress yourselves as teletubbies.
4. A very important part is a druid's knife. Break into a museum, it's the best chance you'll get for acquiring one. If this is impossible, you can use a plastic knife but it is assumed that the edge drops to 52%.
5. Wait for a night when the moon doesn't shine yet the stars are clear.
6. The gay teletubby needs the cut the throat of the lamb on the alter at exactly 12 o'clock at midnight. The rest need talk in thung to Futuros (the god of the future obv) and ask him to reveal to you the event that you care about. Don't ask him relevant stuff like when are the police going to arrest you. Ask him whether Utd will win the title sort of stuff.
7. After the lamb has bled to death the gay teletubby cuts from the neck opening down to the lamb's anus. The heart is taken out and teseted. If it tastes like chicken, the answer is yes. Otherwise, it's a no.
8. Futuro is a freak god by human standards. You need to rape the lamb in order to ensure future service.
9. The lamb should be cooked and eaten as well.
10. Liquidate your assets and lump on.
1. You need a lamb.
2. Build an alter in the form of a heart.
3. There must be exactly four of you. Dress yourselves as teletubbies.
4. A very important part is a druid's knife. Break into a museum, it's the best chance you'll get for acquiring one. If this is impossible, you can use a plastic knife but it is assumed that the edge drops to 52%.
5. Wait for a night when the moon doesn't shine yet the stars are clear.
6. The gay teletubby needs the cut the throat of the lamb on the alter at exactly 12 o'clock at midnight. The rest need talk in thung to Futuros (the god of the future obv) and ask him to reveal to you the event that you care about. Don't ask him relevant stuff like when are the police going to arrest you. Ask him whether Utd will win the title sort of stuff.
7. After the lamb has bled to death the gay teletubby cuts from the neck opening down to the lamb's anus. The heart is taken out and teseted. If it tastes like chicken, the answer is yes. Otherwise, it's a no.
8. Futuro is a freak god by human standards. You need to rape the lamb in order to ensure future service.
9. The lamb should be cooked and eaten as well.
10. Liquidate your assets and lump on.
kef4o
I can see this approach could have a lot going for it. The challenge is, once Futuros has spoken everyone will lump on and the market will quickly move to discount what he has said. Those employing the Bem techniques will know 53% of the time(assuming a 50:50 game) what he is going to pronoumce before he has done it, and so be able to get on before Futuros followers (i.e. teletubbies gay or otherwise).
[;)]
I can see this approach could have a lot going for it. The challenge is, once Futuros has spoken everyone will lump on and the market will quickly move to discount what he has said. Those employing the Bem techniques will know 53% of the time(assuming a 50:50 game) what he is going to pronoumce before he has done it, and so be able to get on before Futuros followers (i.e. teletubbies gay or otherwise).
[;)]
kef4o
Reading your approach back, could you please clarify an important point of sequence detail: is the lamb raped alive or dead?
Reading your approach back, could you please clarify an important point of sequence detail: is the lamb raped alive or dead?
Well, you are only four assuming you don't want to film it or you are not doing it in front of the Buckingham palace, the knowledge remains known only to you. Imagine on the other hand the tons of people who will read that article and apply it the very same way, as if there were any other thing to apply his conclusions to.
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