General Betting
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What percentage of players would you say make 100k+ on here?
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0.0001% if that. the place is full of dreamers (i know as i am one of them) and people unable to face the fact that they have a problem or are a loser. gamblers sing about the winners and dont mention the hundreds of losers.
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I wouldn't disagree with you, though Findlay must be one.
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1 in a million Blades?
It's not clear if the OP means "Makes 100k total" or "Makes 100k per year" but I'd imagine that there's at least 100 people in the latter category and several thousand in the former. Betfair with, um, I forget, let's call it 3 million members MUST have more than 3 people on 100k/year. |
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Me!
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I'd be more interested in knowing how many make 1m/year. That's where I'd like to be. I'm just lacking the discipline
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I have the discipline, sounds like together we could pocket 1 mill+ per annum, Fred!
I would also agree with Lori, far more than, 0.0001%. Think of the posters who openly post about p/l; ie Koo and others. Then consider the IR players paying tens of thousands in pc. |
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I would think that to make more than 100K a year out of betting, you would need to dedicate at least 500K of capital, and that would be cutting it fine.
So if you think there are hundreds dedicating that amount of capital, then hundreds would be your answer. |
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FAFH.
Even Findlay reckons 8% ROI is the ceiling. Veitch claims 16%, but he appears privy to "sharp" info from yards. 20% ROI impossible imo. |
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I would think that to make more than 100K a year out of betting, you would need to dedicate at least 500K of capital, and that would be cutting it fine.
So if you think there are hundreds dedicating that amount of capital, then hundreds would be your answer. It is a major misconception to assume that a large capital base is needed to generate large profits. It might be for position-takers, but for in-play traders, say, more than about £20k is totally unnecessary. |
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Contrarian
People keep saying that but imo it's off dreaming with the pixies. I have yet to see any real proof that 100K a year can be made with 20K of capital. I would love to be proved wrong on this btw. It would give a lot of genuine hope to a lot of earnest triers out there. Steeringjonap I wanted to post your level of figures but I thought it might be too low for people to take them seriously. I agree with your post wholeheartedly. |
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I make about a million a week on here. I donate most of my profits to charity.
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Contrarian
One of the reasons I say this is that you surely just can't make a lot of money from trading from pure volume of making small bets. That is you have to start, at some time down the road at least, to open positions of size, even if you subsequently trade out of them in- play. And that takes capital doeasn't it ? |
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FAFH,
Then it seems to me that you have little or no experience in-play trading. An IP trader usually holds positions for a matter of seconds or minutes. He'll be seeking value over those short time periods, and it's very unlikely that he'll be able to find more than a few 1000 of value at a time (if there's an IP sport where such value exists, point me to it, please). This means that there's a fairly low upper limit on the amount that he's likely to tie up at any one time. Of course there may be exceptions to this: some traders may take very one-sided positions throughout the course of a game/match, and also, I suppose, some people may trade more than one match/game simultaneously, requiring a bit more capital. |
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Contrarian
I agree that I have no experience in IP trading. I'm just making a common sense point that to make large amounts of money you will need to play with large amounts of capital. Even to open a position for 1 second takes the same amt. of capital as opening it for 1 hour? I would agree that perhaps to make a reasonable, modest amount of money IP trading you don't need huge amts. of capital. |
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The point is that the IP trader is making small returns (perhaps 1%, say) on the bets he is placing, but he is placing many, many more of these bets that would a long-term position-taker. If I can back £10k at 1.5, and then lay off 30 seconds later at 1.49, I can make (£67) a 0.67% return. Do this several times a match, and you're making decent money from a £10k bank. Is that clearer?
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Koo ... turned 10,000 into over 600,000 in about 6 months with IR bets........and I,m sure he did not make figures up!
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I would like to bet good money that traders like Contrarian could make money building up from banks as little as £1000.
In my view £20000 is more than sufficient for any decent trader and actually more can be a disadvantage as the bigger you trade generally the less value achievable.Reversing bigger positions can be trickier than you think even when a opportunity is going the way you expected.Taking under the odds purely to "green up" defeats the object. |
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Contrarian
I don't dispute your example of course. But my point is that you can do that a few times in a match MAYBE, and then sometimes come unstuck MAYBE. To do it consistently on a upward curve to be generating 100 K a year ( which was the OP) will take more than a modest amount of capital. In your example you might make a few hundred in one match, less in another, or even lose in another. But overall to make 300 quid every day for a year, whatever happens, you surely would have to be betting on ( say) 10 matches in tandem, maybe even more to even out the inevitable swings and roundabouts. So even in your modest example you might conceptually at any one time need 100 K of capital. The bottom line is that most traders on here make out that they are indulging in some pseudo investment type activity, where their ultimate risk of losing in the long run is infinitessimal and their rewards ( percentage wise to capital invested) are astronomical. If that was really the case, then in the history of mankind, such fabulous money making opportunities ( if they ever really do genuinely exist) are closed down pretty quickly by more and more people jumping in resulting in the returns on capital being either reduced to virtually zero or at the very least to more normal everyday levels. Such is life. Or are you saying that IP betting is such an obscure,arcane form of activity that very few can, and ever will, master it ? |
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DFC
I sometimes wonder whether we are getting the whole Koo gambling picture, or just part of it. He does seem to be an extremely reckless gambler, at times at least, and it is really hard to see how that could be maintained for ever and a day. He's good, no doubt about that. But so have a lot of others before him, and pretty much all of those have gone down in flames ultimately. |
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Who is koo? Is there a thread where i can read about him?
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I think he posted recently that he'd lost alot of money?
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FAFH,
Well, actually, for many IP traders, the risk of losing in the long run is infinitesimally small. Because, over the course of, say, a month, the trader is doing thousands of bets (I, eg., each week trade over 200 markets, and probably match about £2m) if he has an edge, the probability of being down over any extended time period is virtually zero. |
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See thread resurrected
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Contrarian
Many on here compare trading in sports bets with activities such as FX trading or other financial trading activities. And there is no guarantee of winning long term in financialtrading, not even in the professional bank dealing rooms. So what is it in sports gambling that makes the risk of losing long term infinitessimally small ? You talk about edges, I have yet to have a sports trading edge satisfactorily explained to me. At least in professional bank FX trading rooms they can, and largely do, front run customers' orders. Also proprietary dealing rooms in investment banks absorb and use huge amounts of capital. |
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By: FINE AS FROG HAIR When: 18 Nov 10 21:55 Contrarian
Many on here compare trading in sports bets with activities such as FX trading or other financial trading activities. You have mentioned this a lot but I rarely see anybody comparing the two. At least not in any depth. |
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My imagination then it must be.
I at least agree with you on the in depth element. Btw Rocket, do you think you can make guaranteed astonomical high returns on capital by IP sports bet trading ? |
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I don't really trade In-Play but I know there are people who make good money doing it.
Not sure about the 'guaranteed' and 'astronomical' bit. Probably not true for most people. |
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Btw I must say that I am somewhat disappointed by the few posts Contrarian had made on here thus far.
Up till now, I have thought of him as one of the more grounded type posters on here. Now I'm having some doubts even about him. I'm sure he makes some money trading, but I think he is kidding himself on the scale of it all, either in an absolute sense or in the returns on capital he is achieving. But it's for him to know and for us to question. I'm just approaching it all, or at least trying to,from a common sense, real world perspective. |
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If they told it wasn't possible to make 100k a year would you stop? Or try anyway?
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FAFH - 100,000 is only 300 profit daily roughly......So a TRADER doing say 25 markets a day only has to make 12 off each market.....not a lot surely!
So "doubting" the reality of what Contrarian has posted indicates it is yersel that appear to be not understanding the arithmetic   ......You are probably top dog at maths though[;)]If you have a REAL edge , then why is 12 profit per market so hard to believe.......if doing 200 markets = 2400 per week etc etc |
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Frog, what exactly is a real world perspective? Is it a perception of lack? where the common sense aspect equates to a belief in limitation?
That is how it comes across when I read your post, forgive me if im not hearing you correctly. I think the point made about thousands of trades over a shortish period of time with an in-built structured edge with the trader well aware of the maths advantage and the reasoning behind it is enough explanation to show long-term minimal risk. |
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Contrarian is not kidding or exaggerating one little bit frog, you're judging others by your own methods. I'd have an even million with anyone that I could turn 1k into 100k within a year as I know the true odds would be about 1.01.
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Frog, for example there are opportunities in the c/s markets where the odds will hold up (you back) then plummet rather fast (you lay) for a quick trade. I don't do that myself but have noticed where exactly I consistently could, becauses I'm in that market all day every day, nothin doin tonight though - what a lousy day - 3 in-play matches all day lol.
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I think when frog was a young boy, someone told him about father christmas, then in his teens when he found out the truth he has never believed anyone since
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The funny thing is that I have probably been the beneficiary of more good luck in the world of making money than most, if not all of you.
But I also know that the odds against it are very high. My basic common sense, real world perspective ( as some one questioned) is that money does not grow on trees as the traders on here would like you to believe. DFC I understand the maths and when put as simply and naively as you have put it, it certainly does sound as easy as falling off a log. That's why I question it all. Get on Massive where can I send you my 1K. We'll split the profits 50/50, of course you'll have to assume an equal proportion of the downside. Btw I would assume that if you find it so easy, you will have no need of my stake money. |
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By: FINE AS FROG HAIR When: 18 Nov 10 23:30 The funny thing is that I have probably been the beneficiary of more good luck in the world of making money than most, if not all of you.
FAHF, this is where you fall down. I didn't even bother to read the rest of your post. |
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TRADERS with BOTS are capable of making at least 12 off a market FAFH ......they will apply their edge ....and i find it hard to believe they need 500,000 to make 12 off 1 market....
"Naive"......mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm |
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Rocket
Your loss perhaps. Btw the point I'm making is that I'm not talking from any viewpoint of jealousy or envy. Somebody accused me of having an in built belief in limitation. Exactly the opposite in my case. I was simply responding to that critique in probably the most honest way I know how to. You have a better way , good for you. But btw my response to that particular, good or bad, modest or immodest, doesn't essentially negate the general points I'm making about making money. |