realistic daily targets..

I don't set any targets, but have amounts that I'm reasonably happy with if I achieve them.  If I don't, I don't let it bother me.

Its all one continuious game

The game only stops when you die or give up betting.

Daily/weekly targets are just psychological crutches.

if you can't walk without crutches then you can't walk.

Targets and limits are useful for people who recognise they have weaknesses, but don't understand themselves or thier weakness enough to deal with it.

So they set targets and limits as a way of dealing with the weakness/failure without actually dealing with the weakness/failure.

to succeed as a long term winning gambler, a person should aim to recognise and confront the weakness or failure, not drive round it.

"realistic" - As what is realistic for 1 punter might be a step too far for another.......then to taper OTHERS ideas to yourself would be illogical IMO.

Each day is different re opportunities for betting. Some days are boringly dull re choice of race types, if HORSES, and if you try to PUSH FOR PROFIT in race types you do not have a strong enough edge in.....then chances are you will lose.

All depends how big an edge you have .....as to how well you do ....PLUS controlling STAKING.

My bank for betting is now up to approx 4,300 from 1,090 3 weeks ago..........but this is probably an extraordinarily high rate of growth on the 1,090 ( I was up to 4,000 approx 3 weeks ago and lost 3,000 over 3 days when my brain went walkabout!!!!), so I am myself probably PUSHING TOO HARD FOR PROFIT !!!!

Having experienced losing 3,000 in 3 days........I am not PUSHING AT ALL nearly as much as before..

EACH RACE SHOULD BE BET ON BASED ON ITS MERIT....AND THE BETS SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH DAILY TARGETS. If you are good enough , with an edge, then the profits will come....BUT ENSURE YOU ARE NOT OVER STAKING RE PROPORTION TO BANK SIZE ETC.

When the LOSSES come......be mentally ready not to chase losses.....try just sticking to betting stakes on the merits of each race/event etc.

I am going to be TIGHTENING UP on staking now my bank is back to just over what it was 3 weeks ago........so if i make a profit on horses of say 50 to 150 .... on a day I will be "happy" with that. With CS LAYS I am averaging about 40/50 a day ....but that is from many bets. 100 a day with the bank size of 4,300 would be exceptional growth rate I suspect on here....so if i can achieve that ...I will be very "pleased" indeed by Christmas !!!

The HIGHER the TARGET the more likely you will make BAD BETS .......

You should only bet when you see a "good betting opportunity" , and you have an edge....and your STAKING should be based on the merits/shape of race/event etc.....not based on DAILY TARGETS!


Trust this helps ...GL with bets.

And DFC am I wrong in saying that when your mood is relatively buoyant, as it is now that you recovered your recent losses, you tend to post more on the forum, and vice versa. That is when you are feeling confident and good again, you feel like giving advice ( good advice I might add), and when you are starting to doubt your skills, you go into a cocoon of silence and don't concern yourself much with others' problems or requests for advice.
Or am I imagining this? It is, to me, a very natural mood swing for anybody, if true.

Confidence counts for alot in this game frog.

For people who are on a steady salary, betting for a living can be very unsteady! Setting targets sounds a methodical and safe way of mimicking a steady salary, but it just doesn't work that way.  The fact is that apart from arbing you can never be 100% sure of making a profit on any given day.  And if you hit your target and jack it in for the day, you're just as likely to be missing out on winning more rather than avoiding losing more.

shanelee
It sure does.
But it is still a bit like golf.
Just when you've thought you have sussed out how to play the game and it's only a matter of time till you get your handicap down to single figures, it rears up bites you in the butt.
Confidence is great, but over confidence is as bad as none at all.

Nothing more so than on the golf course. When ive played a couple of good holes i feel 8 foot tall, a couple of bad holes and i just don`t fancy next few shots at all, can really get to you.

Im my experience all you need more than anything is discipline in betting, without that you`re sunk. No matter how good or smart you are. Discipline should take care of over confidence too.

Escapee 08 Nov 10 23:42 

Its all one continuious game


true but being a continuous game there is for sure an ideal or most efficient growth/compounding rate

with that in mind and knowing that you can only bet so much here because of liquidity...

what would be the ideal daily percentage, lets say for a bank of £1000?

i dont set limits to what i win but i should have a number that if for nothing else acts as a ruler so that i know where i am in relation to my long term goals, if im above it, great, if im below it then i know i should be aiming at x to get back on track

Lusitano,
I think you have failed to grasp the full meaning and implications of the reality: Its all one continuious game





I don't mean to be harsh, but a question like:
what would be the ideal daily percentage, lets say for a bank of £1000?
is Narnia-esque nonsense, in that the answer is ofcourse somewhere in the region 1,000,000,000,000,0000 percent.

Most long term winning gamblers aim to win as much as they can in a day, week, year... within the constraints defined by such things as bankroll risk and managment, +EV oppotunity availability, and the compromises forced into the equation because they are human and all that entails.

Daily targets are a hindrance to this kind of winning mentality, sure one can project into the future an expected return over a period of time and then mark ones progress against the projection and alter a strategy in the light of an error in the projection.
But this is not the same as betting or ceasing to bet because a daily target has or has not been achieved, or if it is then the strategy itself is fatally flawed.

im betting now but i'll answer your reply later

*comment your reply

Lusi
Escapee is essentially right on all his points in principle.
However, there is one major use of a certain limited period, usually a day, when at the end of it there is commonly a lull in proceedings of a few hours at least.
At that downtime you can best resize up or down your stakes, depending on your respective capital growth or reduction over the last non-stop betting session.
This is perhaps what I think that you mean by the " efficient growth/compounding" point you made ?

FINE AS FROG HAIR Joined: 12 Mar 07
Replies: 1278 09 Nov 10 00:54 
And DFC am I wrong in saying that when your mood is relatively buoyant, as it is now that you recovered your recent losses, you tend to post more on the forum, and vice versa. That is when you are feeling confident and good again, you feel like giving advice ( good advice I might add), and when you are starting to doubt your skills, you go into a cocoon of silence and don't concern yourself much with others' problems or requests for advice.
Or am I imagining this? It is, to me, a very natural mood swing for anybody, if true.
=================================================================================

If I see a subject where a post from me MIGHT be helpful....and I have TIME....I will give an opinion etc.

Otherwise on certain subjects ...eg some of ones you have posted are not what I consider within my knowledge or I MIGHT find too academic....so I don't have a strong opinion on ...so I DON'T POST!

Whether I am doing well, or whether I am incurring losses, if I have TIME and ENERGY I will try to be helpful on posts, or where I think someone is going down the wrong dreel on certain subjects ( like OR etc ......)

When I posted the long post above.......I had had a busy day re "WORK" so was relieved that was over ....so yes I was in a good frame of mind. Having had a number of good odds winners yesterday whilst working...that contributed as well ...TRUE.

However, I have had a roller coaster day today with HORSES ....and also a phone call to take at 12.45 ....which lasted 12 minutes and distracted me on 1st race leaving me with only about 1 minute to choose a lay ...which won...starting day off with a HIT ...plus the phone call was from someone who NEEDS a lot of "help" and drains my energy ...putting me in wrong frame of mind to appraise races with full concentration! I am now posting to this thread , as the subject is one I feel I might give some reasonable guidance on.....


I've noticed you are fairly ACTIVE on GB forum RECENTLY ......and you come across as an intelligent, fairly articulate person ....who probably THINKS TOO MUCH.....indicating that you are academic , and your subject matters tend to be too intellectual and not of much practical use to me ....though i have enjoyed how you deal with critical posts etc etc ...


BTW - I don't DOUBT my skills re HORSE RACING.........and over the last 6/7 weeks a close family member has been ill on and off over that period.....which has coincided with yersel becoming  VERY ACTIVE on GB FORUM.......My TIME has been used  to help that family member, so perhaps I have not posted too much over last few weeks.....or subject matters have not appealed to me....


I suspect you are doing some sort of thesis on BETTING.....and are using the forum to psychoanalyze some of characters on here.....and there are plenty characters to give you material

GL with bets.

OK Escapee


first, i said i didnt set limits to what i win, so lets be clear about that


“Daily targets are a hindrance to this kind of winning mentality, sure one can project into the future an expected return over a period of time and then mark ones progress against the projection and alter a strategy in the light of an error in the projection”.

Thats exactly what i was saying, i project a figure as my expected yearly return and use that figure as a guide so that i know if im either behind or ahead of my objectives

but lets say i want to double my bank in one year using compounding (and this is why i gave the £1,000 bank example)

i would achieve my double up in 12 months with a compounded monthly rate of around 5.8%

but if i used 7% instead i would achieve the same goal 2 months earlier

so, for me, the added risk of increasing 1.2% is more than worth it

this was the percentage i was talking about, that doesnt mean that the bets i make don't go way above this percentage, if they do, even better but i know where i am, in relation to my projections, instead of  “going with the wind”

please note that those figures are just an example for such a small bank, they would vary obviously dpending on the size of the bank, etc etc

I love the way whenever someone posts a question like this, half the forum turns into mister miyagi, and the other half turns into jimmy carr, stood next to mister miyagi doing a running commentary on what he has to say.

all I have to say is, if you know what you're doing, how much you can reasonably expect to make on average as a percentage of your bank gets lower the bigger your bank gets.

and, if you let yourself be emotionally bound by daily/weekly/whateverly targets, you're more likely to come a serious cropper than if you don't.

A realistic daily target is... no target.

Targets are for archers .

Viva
Excuse my ignorance, but who are mister miyagi and jimmy carr.?
Nice to know who you are being compared to.
DFC
I'm no academic. Far from it.
My post to you was not really meant to be all that serious, but appreciate your lengthy and wordy reply. Almost could have been one of mine in fact. Now that could be a worry to you I'm sure.

[:(][:(][:(]

If a bet matches your criteria - take it/lay it.

You may do 5-ish a day, then 20 in one day... and none the next... and none the next, etc.

The only restrictions that I say would be useful is the maximum bank % per bet.

Yep Zola's right.
You should never force the issue, and targets do tend to do that.
Of course there is unfortunately one big target that never goes away.
You run out of money.

Time is also an important restriction (especially when betting manually).