Tosh

1st race down 8 to go

I started this thread because I went and stupidly posted on another thread what I
could do with 5K over 3 years.

Because it is unbelievable to 99%. I thought I would give it a go as per other thread

However will only post my lay bets as I don't want to give my prices away on my win bets.

Will explain a bit more later.

Trevh

After I set my max limit only the ones that get matched at my price or less qualify
So far 8 lays 7 good  showing a slight loss on my lays showing a profit on win bets as
mr chard won and I had it priced at 2.4 and it won at 5.3 SP (betfair)

Certainly looks like  a losing race for me
however it wont be a lot. Once I have priced my horses I stick to it .

All are bad value as I post except for the 5 and 6 tab which are over my true odds

I'm definitely not understanding something

13 horses, you price up one at 9, two at 13.5 and the rest at 25
and offer to lay up at to those prices.

If I could back all the horses at those prices for 1 point each, Worst case I lose 3 points on one horse, make half a point on two horses or win 13 points if one of the other ten horses wins.....
So unless I'm being really stupid ( quite likely ) I'd jump on all those prices as a backer surely ?

'scuse my ignorance, what am I missing ?

The 25.00 is not an arbitrary figure it is calculated by a formula
depending on how much a selection is below my calculated price at time of pricing.
Hope that makes sense.

In the above example Star Witness was calculated to start at below 6.00 My price being 12.00
With such an advantage I was prepared to have a bigger lay on it.

Was wrong with that one JUST!

Although I am a pom, the English seem to have lost their b a ll s, turned into real ****.
All I see on this forum is laying horses at low odds. Not much profit in that.

Escapee

Because there was so much value on it increasing from 12.00 to 25.00 increases the multiplier
to get more laid on it.

Escapee, that was explained earlier if you look. CM, any chance of answering my question 7 posts up ^ please.

Trevh
Have changed my rules to a more valued approach. A bit pressed for time betting at the mo, will answer more questions
in detail later.

Days summary ~ Just Lays

Start Bank =    5,000.00
In play bank =  1,000.00    
Gross Profit =    -117.94    
Total Commission =    8.44    
Total Net Profit =    -126.38

Total lays 39, 34 winning lays, 5 losing lays

Detail ~

Race	Tab	Horse	Lay Max Price	Liability        Result
1	3	CONDELAGO	18.5	113.5	7.37
1	4	ACE ACOSTA	10.5	108.5	12.48
1	5	GOLDSTONE	12.5	110.4	12.00
2	1	ALCOPOP	12.0	113.3	16.00
2	2	HERCULIAN PRINCE (NZ)	25.0	118.6	8.12
2	7	ONCE WERE WILD	25.0	118.6	8.47
2	11	CEDARBERG	17.5	116.5	7.51
2	12	MALUCKYDAY (NZ)	8.0	108.1	-108.10
3	2	DIVORCES	25.0	110.8	5.62
3	3	DIZLAGO	9.0	102.6	15.54
3	6	SASA	25.0	110.8	17.87
3	8	ZUTARA	17.5	108.8	8.05
4	1	STAR WITNESS	25.0	116.0	-116.00
4	2	PRESSDAY	25.0	116.0	20.71
4	3	BUFFERING	25.0	116.0	16.11
4	4	SOUL	9.0	107.4	21.96
4	9	SISTINE ANGEL	13.5	111.8	11.52
4	10	SOLAR CHARGED	25.0	116.0	24.16
5	1	SHOCKING	25.0	113.5	14.18
5	7	DESCARADO (NZ)	17.5	111.4	8.02
5	8	SHOOT OUT	25.0	113.5	8.16
6	3	LION TAMER (NZ)	16.5	114.3	-114.30
6	9	DIGITAL FORTRESS (NZ)	11.0	110.6	17.83
6	11	ALMINDORO	14.5	113.3	9.00
7	1	HOT DANISH	25.0	106.7	7.62
7	3	CULMINATE (NZ)	25.0	106.7	8.89
7	6	SACRED CHOICE	25.0	106.7	-106.70
8	1	BLACK PIRANHA	24.0	96.2	5.06
8	5	SWIFT ALLIANCE	12.0	92.0	8.76
8	6	SHELLSCRAPE	10.5	90.8	11.35
8	7	BEADED	15.5	93.9	7.82
8	10	RESPONSE	23.0	96.0	5.05
8	12	DUBLEANNY	25.0	96.3	21.16
9	1	DAO DAO	25.0	102.8	13.04
9	4	JUNGLE RULER	25.0	102.8	10.99
9	6	POOR JUDGE	18.5	101.3	-101.30
9	8	ROCKPECKER	17.5	101.0	10.38
9	10	DEMERIT	25.0	102.8	33.16
9	11	PRINCE BRAEMAN	13.5	99.2	14.50

To get how much to stake on a 1K bank (my method). Bear with me for a while.

First, rating a race and getting its winning chance, second, converting to a price in decimal, third
comparing prices to see which is value and finally how much to risk as a % of the bank on each selection


This race example has 8 starters, for typing convenience I will use saddle numbers to name each runner.

Horse	Weight	Limit	Base	P&B	Rating	Diff	Decimal
1	58	51	67	-2	58	2.5	0.5
2	57	51	66	0.5	60.5	0	1
3	56	51	66	-4	57	3.5	0.33
4	54.5	51	59	-3.5	52	8.5	0.03
5	52	51	60	-2.5	56.5	4	0.25
6	51.5	51	60	0	59.5	1	0.8
7	51.5	51	60	-7	52.5	8	0.03
8	51	51	61.5	-1	60.5	0	1

Col. A horse, Col.B weight allotted by handicapper, Col. C  limit weight that handicapper can give, Col D Base run ~ this is from past ratings its best performance in a race, Col E Penalties and bonus's , these are derived from tables on class, distance, form, age improvement, consistency and others  you may wish to include, Col F = final rating which is its base run plus  penalties and bonuses minus the difference from weight allotted to the limit weight, Col G is the difference in weight from the highest rating weight (0), Col H is the decimal derived from a table of advantages to chances.

Now pricing and how much to bet.

Horse	Decimal	Sum	Book	%	Price
1	0.5	3.94	90%	11.4213198	8.76
2	1	3.94	90%	22.84263959	4.38
3	0.33	3.94	90%	7.538071066	13.27
4	0.03	3.94	90%	0.685279188	145.93
5	0.25	3.94	90%	5.710659898	17.51
6	0.8	3.94	90%	18.27411168	5.47
7	0.03	3.94	90%	0.685279188	145.93
8	1	3.94	90%	22.84263959	4.38

We divide  the decimal chance by the sum of all chances then multiply by a book you wish to have, in this  example a book of 90% to cover commission and variances. Now we have a percentage chance of each horse winning taking into account the built in 10% margin for comm. and variance to ensure a profit. To get the price we divide 1 by its winning %.( 1/11.4% for horse number 1 giving us a decimal price of  ~ 8.76)

We then compare our prices to betfairs price on offer ~

Our price ... Betfairs price
1. 8.76...........11.00
2. 4.38...........5.5
3. 13.2...........4.60
4. 145.93.......88.00
5. 17.50.........15.50
6. 5.47...........5.10
7. 145.93........120.00
8. 4.38............3.70

At this stage of the market we see that Betfairs book is at 1.016 We back them to get a return of a % of our bank. In this case for ease of calculating we will use 10% of our bank which is 100.00. We multiply the 100.00 by our chance of each selection winning, the higher the chance of it winning the more we have on it.

Our chance of winning on horse 1 is 11.4% so the bet would be 11.4%*100 = 11.40 at betfairs offer of 11.00.  To win  114.00 minus our bet of 22.8 on horse 2. if it wins we win 91.2 on the race.
Our chance of winning on horse 2 is 22.8% so the bet would be 22.8%*100 = 22.80 at betfairs offer of 5.5.  To win 102.6 minus our bet of 11.4 on horse 1. if it wins a profit of  91.2 on the race.

It is basically overlay betting, the bigger the margin between your price and Betfairs price, the bigger the profit.

In my tosh post for lays I would show these at these max set odds ~
Number 3, 25.00
Number 4, 25.00
Number 5, 17.50
Number 7, 25.00

Numbers 6 and 8 would be no bets not enough value to either lay or bet on.

I concur with fafh, an outstanding post.


I remember asking some questions  previously in this thread and failing miserably to comprehend the answers so I'm reluctant to further clutter up this thread with questions.


But as I'm here and I find myself in the 'reply box' I'll tentatively fire one off and hope.

As you do Aus racing and I do UK stuff I'm not sure the handicapper works in the same way.
I've never really understood how UK handicapping works, a horse might go from a 'rating' of 68 to say 70 in its next race and yet the weight on the declared card might drop from 9st8lb to 9st4lb. Whats going on here ?

You talk of 'Limit weight' I don't know what this is could you elucidate ?


In fact if anyone wants to chime in with an explanation of how the UK racing handicapping/rating/weight system works I'm sure I'm not the only one who would be greatful.

Thanks in advance.

Escapee I get most of my form from risa. This URL if you open it will show race 2 of today.
For Four-Years-Old and Upwards - 0 - 95. 53 kg min. Apprentice Can't Claim
In this case it shows the limit weight of 53KG


http://materials.risa.com.au/PUBLISHING/DOWNLOADS/FREEFORM/RD0611FLEM_A.asp?racenum=02&StateDesc=VIC

Cheers

Thanks Compound & Top2

Is this type of analysis something you have struck upon yourself.?
Or is it all accepted as a fairly not well known, correct, if not necessarily practiced, approach to things.?
Of course, always give or take the inherent,subjective decision making that will presumably make all those following this type of approach come up with ( slightly) varying results ?
Remember I don't bet on horses, never have, and so maybe my question is perhaps totally naive.

Compound Magic

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AjriKHhwpRQQdFFLemtUUGk1VUlVaFBmWjZ2YVh2UHc&authkey=COiIzZUP&hl=en#gid=0

Our route may be different but the end product is similar don't you think?

The race is the November Handicap, the last big handicap of the UK Flat Turf season, which took place at Doncaster on 06/11/2010.  The winner, incidentally, was Times Up.

top2rated

Very interesting, pricing by rank. I see you are a speed rater. Tried that with no success maybe my input
information on track surfaces and the going was not accurate enough.

Of the three types of rating systems that I have tried, most success for me has come with the limit weight method.
The popular American rating method of giving each horse a par value certainly has merit but is a bit more difficult
to price.
It seems common in UK to rate by speed but as said I could not come to grips with it.

I think any objective method using known parameters is the best way to profit on horse racing if you are a position
player.

It is interesting how other punters decide what to bet on and how much to stake. I agree with lori on "Kelly criterion"
but when backing and laying multiple selections in the same race have not been able to create a formula to cover all.

You once asked if I would be willing to help with an excel spreadsheet and I never gave you a proper answer, so yes to that.

Hope you are making a quid or two. Putting in the effort that you do, deserves reward.

FINE AS FROG HAIR

As a rule I stick to races where the total prize money is 70k or greater.

Several reasons.
1. Being liquidity, these races almost always have 300k or more bet on them.
2. Acceptance fees to these races are quite expensive so majority are triers.
3. 4th place getter usually can win more prize money in these events than the provincials pay for the win.
4. Stewards are more on the ball and are less corruptible, less chance of race fixing.
5. City tracks are a lot better maintained, they are not as tight and small as country tracks which means
horses are not inconvenienced as much in the running.
6. They are mostly classier runners, more consistent in their form and make it easier to handicap.

Lastly, I don't have time to do more than two meets a week. After the races finish there is about 4 hours work
rating all horses on how they ran and before the next meet when acceptances and weights are known about 6 hours
work working out penalties and pricing etc..

I bet on two year old races that have not raced before even though there is no ratings to be done. There are some
direct pointers to how these will go but that's a topic for another time.

cheers.

thanks