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General Betting
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Seeing as the large majority of people on here finish up with a yearly loss isnt the best bets for those people inc. myself to do the opposite to what they fancy? Had i have done this last night and tues then id have done barca last night under 2.5, rangers under 2.5 and layed birmingham -1 and made a nice profit. If i do my usually study, decide which bet i think will win then do the complete opposite surely ill end up on top?
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trial it on here and i will certainly follow with interest
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Beware of sod's law though.
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Sod's law does seem very real in this game, very real, but that's the downside of having human emotions, sod's law doesn't affect bots! Most people will lose to commission long term even if they reverse their bets.
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Is there any chance of winning at betting trevh?
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It's impossible to bet against yourself. No matter how you reach a decision on how to bet, you are betting on what you think will provide a profit.
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i fancy over 2.5 in the ausie game in the morning. so ill lay it. lets see how i start.
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Yes there is Councellor, but it's a tiny one, and I can't imagine anyone winning long term by randomly selecting bets that they have a hunch will win based on form (not saying you do), but I think it needs a very methodical almost inhuman approach to selections and staking, that's why I like systems - a word that many hate.
Apparently Betfair claim more than 1% of users are profitable, but I personally think long term that figure is probably nearer 0.1%, just a hunch! I think if you gave most punters the keys to run their own roulette table, they would still lose despite having a 2.7% edge, because the edge is so tiny as to be short term invisible. |
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All about discipline eh Trevh ?
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FROG ..... Discipline never won nowt this is a game that favours the Brave ..zip will tell you where discipline will get you nowhere.. ok you will lose slower but you will lose .
when your right lump on |
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Zipper,are you following the late great William Hill,who said,bet very rarely,but when you really fancy a horse,have a lump on.
Or,basically find horses that your convinced must win at least one race,then wait until you cant sit on your hands any longer,[as regards each single horse]then start backing it,once you start punting it you must back it every time[or limit 3 runs?],because horses have a tendency to win races when deemed "no chance"!!. |
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ZIPPER -- you are wrong mate . Discipline has doubled my bank since sep 1st
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I constantly bet against myself.
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councellor
it can be done even by an idiot like me # in horse racing you need to find a group of horses, trainers , jockeys , favourites , 3yo, godolphin etcetcetcetc that are overbet ( lay ) or underbet ( back ). Discipline is my only dowfall . With cold discipline it is easy , take no notice of zipper |
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I think I'll go with Zipper over any advice that says discipline will make winning easy. It might make it more probable but never, ever easy.
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I have thought about this as well. I have just started laying the dogs after a long break - where generally accepted rule of thumb is that the favourite wins about 1/3 of the time. Logically the 2nd favourite would win a bit less and so on. I look to lay 3rd or 4th favourite where I can see that the odds are not wildly out of line with the bookies markets.
Last sample of bets (small sample of 30 races right enough) average odds - 4.9, expected number of losers - 6.1, actual number of losers - 10. Even breaking the numbers down to represent expected winners based sheerly on market position (I got these stats a couple of years ago, so things may have changed) - 33% wone by favourite, 25% won by 2nd favourite, 18% won by 3rd favourite, 12% by 4th favourite etc. I would only have expected to lose 5 races. I know the sample is too small as yet, but if it keeps up, then I may trial backing instead of laying. The big question is would I make the same choices, when so much of my current behaviour is subjective? |