General Betting
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28 Oct 10
21:36
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Date Joined:
12 Mar 07
to even raise an eyebrow, let alone question, any answer to the following.
If you, being either a pro or a serious amateur punter, were given ( say) 5000 pounds of capital today, what amount would you realistically expect to grow it to over a (say) three year period ( reinvesting all profits and increasing your stakes over time).
At on which sport(s) would you concentrate ?
If you, being either a pro or a serious amateur punter, were given ( say) 5000 pounds of capital today, what amount would you realistically expect to grow it to over a (say) three year period ( reinvesting all profits and increasing your stakes over time).
At on which sport(s) would you concentrate ?
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And I almost forgot to add the rider.
If and when you do reply, then please just sit back and really analyse what you have said from the perspective of the " real" world of alternaive financial investing.
If and when you do reply, then please just sit back and really analyse what you have said from the perspective of the " real" world of alternaive financial investing.
Typical financial markets thinking.
Anyway, I'd give it to a software developer to develop a tool to automate what I currently do manually.
I can make money on any sport, but some I avoid, Rugby and ice hockey, for example.
Anyway, I'd give it to a software developer to develop a tool to automate what I currently do manually.
I can make money on any sport, but some I avoid, Rugby and ice hockey, for example.
And I'll preepmt the predictable replies from yhe usual suspects.
Yes, it is a rather typically pompous,@rseh0le question from me, but try to get beyond that if you possibly can.
I think it's a valid question, and the answers ( if serious and true) could be very useful info. for any beginners just starting out on the rocky road to wealth and riches from gambling.
Yes, it is a rather typically pompous,@rseh0le question from me, but try to get beyond that if you possibly can.
I think it's a valid question, and the answers ( if serious and true) could be very useful info. for any beginners just starting out on the rocky road to wealth and riches from gambling.
Before the thread gets going you have an opportunity to say what you think Froggy. You already claim to be a profitable bettor. What would you expect to achieve with the scenario you have outlined?
£5k, profits reinvested on which sport please? How much would YOU expect to make?
£5k, profits reinvested on which sport please? How much would YOU expect to make?
football for sure...lots of liquidity..
most popular sport ..most loose gamblers ,
i asked a similar question sometime back to get a few ideas to explore other sports in between football ..
in conclusion i thought it came down to ,
a) a sport you know about ..or are preparred to learn ,
b) what kind of gambling /trading you prefer ...each sport requires "different tacts"
c) time you have to invest into watching game ..e.g cricket is nearly all day !,
footie is 90 mins , horse racing is few mins.
personally i would bet on snail racing if there were cash in it ! ..lol
but i,ve found cricket quite easy to green up trading ,
tennis ..but lack of knowledge of players can catch you out ..but again can be great for ir trading , ...footie best imo though ,
as for £5 start ...that really depends on your personal requirements
most popular sport ..most loose gamblers ,
i asked a similar question sometime back to get a few ideas to explore other sports in between football ..
in conclusion i thought it came down to ,
a) a sport you know about ..or are preparred to learn ,
b) what kind of gambling /trading you prefer ...each sport requires "different tacts"
c) time you have to invest into watching game ..e.g cricket is nearly all day !,
footie is 90 mins , horse racing is few mins.
personally i would bet on snail racing if there were cash in it ! ..lol
but i,ve found cricket quite easy to green up trading ,
tennis ..but lack of knowledge of players can catch you out ..but again can be great for ir trading , ...footie best imo though ,
as for £5 start ...that really depends on your personal requirements
but try to get beyond that if you possibly can.
That in a nutshell is your problem. (Double meaning intended)
That in a nutshell is your problem. (Double meaning intended)
25k year 1
125k year 2
625k year 3
trading on the financial markets.
125k year 2
625k year 3
trading on the financial markets.
DaveEdwards
In 3 years I'm currently aiming for about 25K.
That would be extremely excellent in relatively conventional financial circles ( remember you couln't get into a super style hedge fund with only a 5K ante). And I'm sdopting a pretty risk all or nothing strategy.
Pxb
Still sulking eh ?
In 3 years I'm currently aiming for about 25K.
That would be extremely excellent in relatively conventional financial circles ( remember you couln't get into a super style hedge fund with only a 5K ante). And I'm sdopting a pretty risk all or nothing strategy.
Pxb
Still sulking eh ?
Very good. Just think how much more it might have been if you were pricing up the football games? Assuming it is that sport you involve yourself with.
And Dave I couldn't, at today's liquidity levels in the soccer mkts across the board, really envisage ever being able to make such more that 5K to 10 K a month with a much larger bank of course, without running into bet size problems.
As you know I don't adopt a value price approach.
I have acctually modelled some price variations and, interestingly, it wouldn't actually make a huge difference to my results.
I have acctually modelled some price variations and, interestingly, it wouldn't actually make a huge difference to my results.
maybe, maybe not. I'm assuming that you operate in one(or more) of the subsidiary markets. Maybe worth exploring other avenues. The Investor made a very good post a while back that I'm sure I won't be able to do justice to now along the lines of thinking up scenarios and then exploring the implied probabilities of that event occurring. He, I'm sure, would be better able to put this much better. It would of course apply to both the area you were investigating plus any other related markets where the odds of the scenario you envisage may be out of line.
On that note goodnight!
On that note goodnight!
pxb....Anyway, I'd give it to a software developer to develop a tool to automate what I currently do manually.
If we could find a way to make it mutually benefitial....
And find a way of building up some trust in each other.
A couple of people on here might vouch for my IT skills.
Interested ?
If we could find a way to make it mutually benefitial....
And find a way of building up some trust in each other.
A couple of people on here might vouch for my IT skills.
Interested ?
Escapee
For what it's worth I think pxb is a bit of a dreamer.
So watch it.
I could be wrong of course.
For what it's worth I think pxb is a bit of a dreamer.
So watch it.
I could be wrong of course.
oh... hmmmm, thanks for the input, In the light of which I shall wish pxb all the best for his endevours in this matter whilst I fail at an attempt of a discrete and gracious withdrawl. [:x]
To be fair to pxb, I did say that I could well be wrong.
But as a lot of people infer about me, his posts just don't seem to ring as totally true.
But as a lot of people infer about me, his posts just don't seem to ring as totally true.
Btw I didn't actually say that you shouldn't try to set up a mutually beneficial arrangement with him.
I just said tread carefully if you do.
Don't want to scupper any potential opportunities for either of you to make some good money.
I just said tread carefully if you do.
Don't want to scupper any potential opportunities for either of you to make some good money.
Escapee, drop me a mail at pxbradley AT gmail DOT com and we can take this offline.
Frog Hair is one of those people who gets his jollies abusing complete strangers online. He thinks he's being clever and original, but online forums are full of people like him.
BTW, I was in the S/W biz for many years. I know how to spec out what I want, including avoiding the bells and whistles of limited value.
What I would automate isn't rocket science and the main issue I foresee is whether BF's API supports it.
Frog Hair is one of those people who gets his jollies abusing complete strangers online. He thinks he's being clever and original, but online forums are full of people like him.
BTW, I was in the S/W biz for many years. I know how to spec out what I want, including avoiding the bells and whistles of limited value.
What I would automate isn't rocket science and the main issue I foresee is whether BF's API supports it.
I suppose that puts me fairly and squarely in place. Although I don't think I "abuse" anybody on here.
The good advice is for me to butt out of things that essentially don't concen me.
I will take that good advice on board here.
All the best to both of you.
The good advice is for me to butt out of things that essentially don't concen me.
I will take that good advice on board here.
All the best to both of you.
I just checked my betting history. For the last 30 days I bet on 109 matches (of the type I want to automate). I made a profit on 102 and a loss on 7. My average loss was significantly larger than my average win, but nonetheless made $890.
If you keep going at that rate you'll make approx.5K a year, a football year that is.
Am I right ?
And what capital are you utilising to do this ?
Is it scalable ?
Am I right ?
And what capital are you utilising to do this ?
Is it scalable ?
Btw that's a really amazing win/loss ratio.
You sure must be doing something right.
You sure must be doing something right.
Okay a bank of 5K you said over 3 years.
My market would be Melbourne, Australia. City meets Saturday only ~ on horse racing.
My expectation would be, taking into consideration number of bets, number of days, commission
both normal and premium, scalability/liquidity and no further changes to Betfairs take, I have come
up with the figure of 250K plus or minus 50K
I would be a position taker, backing and laying.
My bets for win and lay would be advantages to chances.
Advantage to chance would mean if I priced a horse at 10.00 my chance of it winning is 10%, so if
It was over that price I would back it thus ~
For my win bet it would be my chance of it winning 10% * 12% of my in play bank 5000 = 60.00
For a lay liability it would be my chance of winning the lay 90% * 12% of my in play bank 5000 = 540
If Betfairs price was equal to or less than 10.00 I would lay to a liability of 540
If Betfairs price was greater than 10.00 I would back with a stake of 60.00
If my prices are reasonably accurate (which they usually are) the profit derived would be the overlay from my prices to what is obtainable on Betfair.
From the bank of 5K I would start with an in play bank of 1K and have 4K in reserve.
If the in play bank dropped below 500.00 I would transfer from reserve 20% or 1K whichever is
the least amount of the two.
The scalability is pretty much exhausted on reaching a 5K in play amount so any time the in play
Bank reached that figure all over would be transferred to reserve.
I would over that 3 year period expect about 150 betting days with approx 9000 betable selections
about 60% being lays.
As from my experience win betting is the most profitable but the most volitile, I would expect
that over 60% of profits would come from the win bets.
Further scalability could be achieved by betting the exotics, Trifecta's, Quadrella's, Quinella's etc...
To hard to quantify results for these.
My market would be Melbourne, Australia. City meets Saturday only ~ on horse racing.
My expectation would be, taking into consideration number of bets, number of days, commission
both normal and premium, scalability/liquidity and no further changes to Betfairs take, I have come
up with the figure of 250K plus or minus 50K
I would be a position taker, backing and laying.
My bets for win and lay would be advantages to chances.
Advantage to chance would mean if I priced a horse at 10.00 my chance of it winning is 10%, so if
It was over that price I would back it thus ~
For my win bet it would be my chance of it winning 10% * 12% of my in play bank 5000 = 60.00
For a lay liability it would be my chance of winning the lay 90% * 12% of my in play bank 5000 = 540
If Betfairs price was equal to or less than 10.00 I would lay to a liability of 540
If Betfairs price was greater than 10.00 I would back with a stake of 60.00
If my prices are reasonably accurate (which they usually are) the profit derived would be the overlay from my prices to what is obtainable on Betfair.
From the bank of 5K I would start with an in play bank of 1K and have 4K in reserve.
If the in play bank dropped below 500.00 I would transfer from reserve 20% or 1K whichever is
the least amount of the two.
The scalability is pretty much exhausted on reaching a 5K in play amount so any time the in play
Bank reached that figure all over would be transferred to reserve.
I would over that 3 year period expect about 150 betting days with approx 9000 betable selections
about 60% being lays.
As from my experience win betting is the most profitable but the most volitile, I would expect
that over 60% of profits would come from the win bets.
Further scalability could be achieved by betting the exotics, Trifecta's, Quadrella's, Quinella's etc...
To hard to quantify results for these.
I think one of the most famously successful gamblers of all time was quoted as saying that all even he wanted do was get it right more than 52.5% of the time.
You're sure ahead of him in that respect.
You're sure ahead of him in that respect.
Billy Walters being the gambler in question.
Capital - even though I do 3 or so a day on average, I do them serially (mostly), so capital < $500. Although I went to a liability of $3,0000 on one.
It will scale between X5 and X10. I've already done 1 today (its morning here) and probably won't do more than one more today. Other stuff is more interesting.
It will scale between X5 and X10. I've already done 1 today (its morning here) and probably won't do more than one more today. Other stuff is more interesting.
Compound
So you're achieving the following performance averages.
60 wagers a day for 50 betting days of the year, making bets and lays of the max size you mentioned, and are making circa 1500-2000 pounds or Aust Dollars a day, that is an avg of circa 25 pounds or dollar per wager.
A fair summary ?
I'm envious I have to admit.
Obviouly on the geegees, a sport I don't know enough about to bet on unfortunately, from the sound of things.
Many, many thanks for your quite interesting, and dare I say seemingly quite believable, response.
Should inspire a few beginners out there methinks.
So you're achieving the following performance averages.
60 wagers a day for 50 betting days of the year, making bets and lays of the max size you mentioned, and are making circa 1500-2000 pounds or Aust Dollars a day, that is an avg of circa 25 pounds or dollar per wager.
A fair summary ?
I'm envious I have to admit.
Obviouly on the geegees, a sport I don't know enough about to bet on unfortunately, from the sound of things.
Many, many thanks for your quite interesting, and dare I say seemingly quite believable, response.
Should inspire a few beginners out there methinks.
Close to 2000 a day when reaching maximum scale, not initially.
I hesitated posting these figures as most would find them far fetched.
I hesitated posting these figures as most would find them far fetched.
example of a good days laying at maximum scale
| Race | Tab | Horse | Lay max price | Lay Bet Liab. | Betfair SP | Result |
| 1 | 1 | DUTCHY'S LASS | 25.0 | 576.0 | 5.30 | 133.95 |
| 1 | 5 | BELLA'S CRY | 25.0 | 576.0 | 14.00 | 44.30 |
| 1 | 6 | ZOOMANIA (NZ) | 25.0 | 576.0 | 5.70 | 122.55 |
| 2 | 2 | RETRIEVE | 7.4 | 518.9 | 5.16 | 124.73 |
| 3 | 2 | PERTURBO | 25.0 | 576.0 | 5.04 | 142.57 |
| 3 | 5 | BONDARCHUK (NZ) | 19.5 | 569.2 | 16.50 | 36.72 |
| 3 | 10 | TWO HILLS | 25.0 | 576.0 | 12.00 | 52.36 |
| 3 | 12 | FEROCIA | 23.0 | 573.9 | 9.41 | 68.24 |
| 4 | 1 | GOTTA KEEP COOL | 25.0 | 576.0 | 10.00 | 64.00 |
| 4 | 2 | PASS ME BY | 25.0 | 576.0 | 13.10 | 47.60 |
| 4 | 6 | MILES ABOVE | 10.5 | 542.8 | 8.71 | -542.80 |
| 4 | 8 | TESTAGUY | 11.5 | 547.8 | 7.23 | 87.92 |
| 4 | 9 | STONEBLACK | 25.0 | 576.0 | 7.20 | 92.90 |
| 4 | 11 | CHASE THE SUN (NZ) | 25.0 | 576.0 | 19.38 | 31.33 |
| 4 | 13 | ONE SHOT (NZ) | 25.0 | 576.0 | 17.88 | 34.12 |
| 4 | 16 | QUITE FAMOUS | 25.0 | 576.0 | 21.60 | 27.96 |
| 5 | 1 | PINNACLES | 25.0 | 553.4 | 3.60 | 212.84 |
| 5 | 2 | BONINDI | 25.0 | 553.4 | 7.80 | 81.38 |
| 5 | 3 | ONLY HE KNOWS (NZ) | 15.5 | 539.3 | 5.33 | 124.54 |
| 5 | 8 | O'REILLY'S CLOCK (NZ) | 25.0 | 553.4 | 10.22 | 60.02 |
| 5 | 9 | OFFENDERS | 25.0 | 553.4 | 8.00 | 79.05 |
| 5 | 10 | MONSIEUR FERAUD | 25.0 | 553.4 | 22.00 | 26.35 |
| 5 | 11 | TOGNI | 25.0 | 553.4 | 12.21 | 49.36 |
| 6 | 1 | ROYAL IDA | 13.5 | 555.5 | 12.50 | 48.30 |
| 6 | 3 | BELTROIS | 25.0 | 576.0 | 8.40 | 77.83 |
| 6 | 5 | GRAND DUELS | 15.5 | 561.2 | 11.40 | 53.96 |
| 6 | 8 | SPACECRAFT | 12.5 | 552.0 | 10.28 | 59.48 |
| 6 | 10 | THE HANDSOME ONE | 25.0 | 576.0 | 14.94 | 41.31 |
| 6 | 11 | UXORIOUS | 17.5 | 565.7 | 16.00 | 37.71 |
| 7 | 4 | BERRINGAMA | 25.0 | 576.0 | 5.70 | 122.55 |
| 7 | 6 | SACRED ORDERS | 19.5 | 569.2 | 14.91 | 40.92 |
| 8 | 1 | BELSCENICA | 25.0 | 576.0 | 10.50 | -576.00 |
| 8 | 3 | CAMEO MINX | 25.0 | 576.0 | 6.80 | 99.31 |
| 8 | 4 | CHOUXMAANI (NZ) | 13.0 | 553.8 | 11.84 | 51.08 |
| 8 | 5 | DAZZLING RUBI | 20.0 | 570.0 | 18.82 | 31.98 |
| 8 | 6 | SHYLOCK'S DAUGHTER (NZ) | 25.0 | 576.0 | 10.37 | 61.47 |
| 8 | 12 | EAU DE DALI | 25.0 | 576.0 | 22.50 | 26.79 |
| 8 | 15 | LITTLE TYCOON | 25.0 | 576.0 | 10.50 | 60.63 |
Don't give too much away now.
This place is a den of thieves, I mean gamblers, after all.
This place is a den of thieves, I mean gamblers, after all.
Sure A, I average about 30 a day. I only bet soccer.
Not in Compound's performance league either I'm afraid to say. Nowhere near at all.
Not in Compound's performance league either I'm afraid to say. Nowhere near at all.
You still tryin to get a loan of 100K or something ?
What would be your collateral ?
Your no-fail system ?
Your no-fail system ?
If you give me 250k i will give u 300k back after one football season. That's a 20 percent return on your investment.
Shouldn't be a problem. Do u want to transfer the money now?
Froggie, I still don't see why you have the need to gamble. You are living in the West Indies, sitting on a pile of money. You spend your afternoons swimming around the pool. Why do you want to waste your time gambling and throwing your money away?
Surviving through gambling is not simply about depositing £5k in Betfair and betting. It is about cash flow problems, resisting the temptation to "free up money", going to the bank to empty savings accounts, just so that you have funds to keep on laying a horse or a team.
And Premium Charge: In practice almost impossible to predict its effect. How can you plan future profitability when that is hanging over you.
Maybe its just me, but I don't understand your mindset.
Surviving through gambling is not simply about depositing £5k in Betfair and betting. It is about cash flow problems, resisting the temptation to "free up money", going to the bank to empty savings accounts, just so that you have funds to keep on laying a horse or a team.
And Premium Charge: In practice almost impossible to predict its effect. How can you plan future profitability when that is hanging over you.
Maybe its just me, but I don't understand your mindset.
I understand his mindset perfectly. He has read one too many books and armed with his newfound knowledge has arrived on General Betting with a fabricated story with the purpose of extracting as much information as he can whilst trying to give the impression that it's two-way.
This scenario is a hundred times more believable than the one he presents. The truth may be somewhere in the middle but it doesn't really matter because his attitude is such that people just don't believe what he says.
This scenario is a hundred times more believable than the one he presents. The truth may be somewhere in the middle but it doesn't really matter because his attitude is such that people just don't believe what he says.
Hello Rocket.
Boo .
Gee I hope I didn't scare you too much.
Come on.
Please get out of this quite ridiculous mindset you have developed about me.
It really is a bit too stupid for words.
Boo .
Gee I hope I didn't scare you too much.
Come on.
Please get out of this quite ridiculous mindset you have developed about me.
It really is a bit too stupid for words.
Maksman
I'm only on here presenting opportunities for people to debate things, but only if they want to , not have to, as our other overly paranoid fellow poster seems to be suggesting.
As far as my own gambling is concerned, it is essentially recreational, but that doesn't mean that it has to be reckless and stupid. I'm interested in hearing our others, better than I will ever be at it, approach things.
But I don't take too much I read on here too seriously, in fact I take most with a pinch of salt, but I do think some others do tend to believe all they read about easy success in gambling on here and elsewhere etc. They think that for some reason the rise of BF has now made the whole world of professional gambling accessible to any and all. You know that is not the case, and I know too, but do all ?
They're perhaps the ones you should be more concerned about with your well meaning, and brutally truthful, last post about the "real" world of gambling for most trying to earn a living from it.
I appreciate your apparent concern about me though. Don't worry I'll survive it all.
Btw what did you think of Compound Magic's opposite type tale earlier in this thread? Pretty good read.
You're a geegee man I know. I would be interested to hear your take on it .
I'm only on here presenting opportunities for people to debate things, but only if they want to , not have to, as our other overly paranoid fellow poster seems to be suggesting.
As far as my own gambling is concerned, it is essentially recreational, but that doesn't mean that it has to be reckless and stupid. I'm interested in hearing our others, better than I will ever be at it, approach things.
But I don't take too much I read on here too seriously, in fact I take most with a pinch of salt, but I do think some others do tend to believe all they read about easy success in gambling on here and elsewhere etc. They think that for some reason the rise of BF has now made the whole world of professional gambling accessible to any and all. You know that is not the case, and I know too, but do all ?
They're perhaps the ones you should be more concerned about with your well meaning, and brutally truthful, last post about the "real" world of gambling for most trying to earn a living from it.
I appreciate your apparent concern about me though. Don't worry I'll survive it all.
Btw what did you think of Compound Magic's opposite type tale earlier in this thread? Pretty good read.
You're a geegee man I know. I would be interested to hear your take on it .
I've been thinking a bit more about why Rocket is so suspicious of me and my motives for posting on here.
Whilst I have quite obviously pushed some strangely wired button in his mind, and I'm damned if I know what it is, perhaps I have done the same in others.
Basically I have a lot of free time on my hands ( too much truth be told).
I have discovered on this one and only forum I contibute to, an interesting and harmless way to fritter away some of this free time.
I am generally interested in gambling and freely confess to not having a lot of indepth knowledge about it.
I have probably only been on a racecourse a few times in my life, but I have been in casinos a bit more. I play some cards for fun like most of us, and that's pretty much the full sum of my gambling activities to date.
Then along came BF. Like a lot of others, I found the whole concept intriguing and have, to a degree, been more and more sucked into it day by day. Not addicted in any sense, but certainly quite heavily involved. Still all for fun in my case though.
I post on here hoping and interested to hear in a very general manner, how others approach their gambling, not to steal their secrets, but to learn how I might improve my own game, and enjoy it even more.
If people don't want to share in any form or manner what they do, that's perfectly fine.
If they do feel so inclined to share, in the sense they too might learn something in return, they that's equally fine.
I'm just a bored and curious person with the time and desire to ask questions, and challenge answers to a reasonable degree, about matters well out of my current sphere of knowledge.
I have no hidden agenda. I'm not trying to trick or deceive people into giving me their hard earned gambling secrets.
The bottom line is , share if you want to, and don't share if you feel reluctant to for any reason whatsoever.
There is absolutely no pressure, from me that is, either way.
But please don't end up paranoidly suspicious like Rocket has. That really is too sad and not necessary at all.
Whilst I have quite obviously pushed some strangely wired button in his mind, and I'm damned if I know what it is, perhaps I have done the same in others.
Basically I have a lot of free time on my hands ( too much truth be told).
I have discovered on this one and only forum I contibute to, an interesting and harmless way to fritter away some of this free time.
I am generally interested in gambling and freely confess to not having a lot of indepth knowledge about it.
I have probably only been on a racecourse a few times in my life, but I have been in casinos a bit more. I play some cards for fun like most of us, and that's pretty much the full sum of my gambling activities to date.
Then along came BF. Like a lot of others, I found the whole concept intriguing and have, to a degree, been more and more sucked into it day by day. Not addicted in any sense, but certainly quite heavily involved. Still all for fun in my case though.
I post on here hoping and interested to hear in a very general manner, how others approach their gambling, not to steal their secrets, but to learn how I might improve my own game, and enjoy it even more.
If people don't want to share in any form or manner what they do, that's perfectly fine.
If they do feel so inclined to share, in the sense they too might learn something in return, they that's equally fine.
I'm just a bored and curious person with the time and desire to ask questions, and challenge answers to a reasonable degree, about matters well out of my current sphere of knowledge.
I have no hidden agenda. I'm not trying to trick or deceive people into giving me their hard earned gambling secrets.
The bottom line is , share if you want to, and don't share if you feel reluctant to for any reason whatsoever.
There is absolutely no pressure, from me that is, either way.
But please don't end up paranoidly suspicious like Rocket has. That really is too sad and not necessary at all.
Btw also, the reason why I open a thread such as this one talking only about growing 5K into something bigger, is that I'm not really all that interested in hearing about the so called high flying world of big time pro gambling, betting in thousands or even hundresd of thousands at a pop.
I'm more interested in the more modest concept of whether it is truly possible or feasible to turn a relatively litlle bit of one's own money into a relatively large bit of others people's money over a reasonable time frame with guile and patience.
To me that would be more of an intellectual challenge than just going out and gambling big time with big money.
If I wanted to do that in any manner then I would probably , as someone suggested, hire a team of full time of real, proven pros to do it for me. I most certainly wouldn't come on here to try and tease out some so-called gambling secrets from all and sundry on here, and on the basis of that start throwing my money around. I mean would you all really do that ? I don't think so.
I'm more interested in the more modest concept of whether it is truly possible or feasible to turn a relatively litlle bit of one's own money into a relatively large bit of others people's money over a reasonable time frame with guile and patience.
To me that would be more of an intellectual challenge than just going out and gambling big time with big money.
If I wanted to do that in any manner then I would probably , as someone suggested, hire a team of full time of real, proven pros to do it for me. I most certainly wouldn't come on here to try and tease out some so-called gambling secrets from all and sundry on here, and on the basis of that start throwing my money around. I mean would you all really do that ? I don't think so.
If you, being either a pro or a serious amateur punter, were given ( say) 5000 pounds of capital today, what amount would you realistically expect to grow it to over a (say) three year period ( reinvesting all profits and increasing your stakes over time).
This question is, for me, virtually identical to asking me what my P&L is likely to be over the next three years. The limiting factor to P&L on here for a successful punter is not capital, but liquidity at a given price.
This question is, for me, virtually identical to asking me what my P&L is likely to be over the next three years. The limiting factor to P&L on here for a successful punter is not capital, but liquidity at a given price.
FINE AS FROG HAIR Joined: 12 Mar 07
Replies: 1089 29 Oct 10 19:31
I've been thinking a bit more about why Rocket is so suspicious of me and my motives for posting on here.
Whilst I have quite obviously pushed some strangely wired button in his mind, and I'm damned if I know what it is, perhaps I have done the same in others.
Basically I have a lot of free time on my hands ( too much truth be told).
I have discovered on this one and only forum I contibute to, an interesting and harmless way to fritter away some of this free time.
I am generally interested in gambling and freely confess to not having a lot of indepth knowledge about it.
I have probably only been on a racecourse a few times in my life, but I have been in casinos a bit more. I play some cards for fun like most of us, and that's pretty much the full sum of my gambling activities to date.
Then along came BF. Like a lot of others, I found the whole concept intriguing and have, to a degree, been more and more sucked into it day by day. Not addicted in any sense, but certainly quite heavily involved. Still all for fun in my case though.
I post on here hoping and interested to hear in a very general manner, how others approach their gambling, not to steal their secrets, but to learn how I might improve my own game, and enjoy it even more.
If people don't want to share in any form or manner what they do, that's perfectly fine.
If they do feel so inclined to share, in the sense they too might learn something in return, they that's equally fine.
I'm just a bored and curious person with the time and desire to ask questions, and challenge answers to a reasonable degree, about matters well out of my current sphere of knowledge.
I have no hidden agenda. I'm not trying to trick or deceive people into giving me their hard earned gambling secrets.
The bottom line is , share if you want to, and don't share if you feel reluctant to for any reason whatsoever.
There is absolutely no pressure, from me that is, either way.
But please don't end up paranoidly suspicious like Rocket has. That really is too sad and not necessary at all.
When you arrived here a few weeks ago you were telling us in your completely blatant way that you were making good money on Betfair through a mathematically sound and certain method that you had developed.
The more you post the less this sounds like the truth and that is why myself and some others are being closed towards you. In short, I have you down as a liar. And that's without going into the other stories you come up with.
Replies: 1089 29 Oct 10 19:31
I've been thinking a bit more about why Rocket is so suspicious of me and my motives for posting on here.
Whilst I have quite obviously pushed some strangely wired button in his mind, and I'm damned if I know what it is, perhaps I have done the same in others.
Basically I have a lot of free time on my hands ( too much truth be told).
I have discovered on this one and only forum I contibute to, an interesting and harmless way to fritter away some of this free time.
I am generally interested in gambling and freely confess to not having a lot of indepth knowledge about it.
I have probably only been on a racecourse a few times in my life, but I have been in casinos a bit more. I play some cards for fun like most of us, and that's pretty much the full sum of my gambling activities to date.
Then along came BF. Like a lot of others, I found the whole concept intriguing and have, to a degree, been more and more sucked into it day by day. Not addicted in any sense, but certainly quite heavily involved. Still all for fun in my case though.
I post on here hoping and interested to hear in a very general manner, how others approach their gambling, not to steal their secrets, but to learn how I might improve my own game, and enjoy it even more.
If people don't want to share in any form or manner what they do, that's perfectly fine.
If they do feel so inclined to share, in the sense they too might learn something in return, they that's equally fine.
I'm just a bored and curious person with the time and desire to ask questions, and challenge answers to a reasonable degree, about matters well out of my current sphere of knowledge.
I have no hidden agenda. I'm not trying to trick or deceive people into giving me their hard earned gambling secrets.
The bottom line is , share if you want to, and don't share if you feel reluctant to for any reason whatsoever.
There is absolutely no pressure, from me that is, either way.
But please don't end up paranoidly suspicious like Rocket has. That really is too sad and not necessary at all.
When you arrived here a few weeks ago you were telling us in your completely blatant way that you were making good money on Betfair through a mathematically sound and certain method that you had developed.
The more you post the less this sounds like the truth and that is why myself and some others are being closed towards you. In short, I have you down as a liar. And that's without going into the other stories you come up with.
Exactly Bayes. P/L is the same thing if all reinvested.
But that is all part and parcel of the equation or question.
What is a realistic figure to expect to make, given the restraints of liquidity amongst other things.
In the alternative world of financial investing one has no such restraints effectively, unless perhaps you're in Warren Buffet's league.
But that is all part and parcel of the equation or question.
What is a realistic figure to expect to make, given the restraints of liquidity amongst other things.
In the alternative world of financial investing one has no such restraints effectively, unless perhaps you're in Warren Buffet's league.
* But liquidity is all part and parcel---- "
Come on Rocket you know you're wrong. Be a man and just admit it and move on.
I am making money and I think my method is mathematically sound.
Good is a relative term, but I have always stated very, very clearly that I don't gamble for a living and that I have a very long term strategy 5-7 years to accumulate whatever target I have set myself.
Why don't you address your real concerns about what I ask, whatever on earth they may be.
Do I perhaps raise some uncomfortable doubts of your own gambling abilities perhaps.
If so, them I'm sorry about that.
But please don't let that override all your common sense. That's not healthy either for you or all those around you.
I'll let the accusation of being a liar pass this time, but I wouldn't get in the habit of repeating it if I was you.
None of us know who we are really talking to on here. So tread carefully, very carefully.
And no that's not a threat, just good advice from someone who just perhaps is a little bit more experienced in life than you.
Also, in closing, really analyse the type of questions I ask on here.
Are they really all that intrusive,or probing.
I don't really think so, do you ?
I am making money and I think my method is mathematically sound.
Good is a relative term, but I have always stated very, very clearly that I don't gamble for a living and that I have a very long term strategy 5-7 years to accumulate whatever target I have set myself.
Why don't you address your real concerns about what I ask, whatever on earth they may be.
Do I perhaps raise some uncomfortable doubts of your own gambling abilities perhaps.
If so, them I'm sorry about that.
But please don't let that override all your common sense. That's not healthy either for you or all those around you.
I'll let the accusation of being a liar pass this time, but I wouldn't get in the habit of repeating it if I was you.
None of us know who we are really talking to on here. So tread carefully, very carefully.
And no that's not a threat, just good advice from someone who just perhaps is a little bit more experienced in life than you.
Also, in closing, really analyse the type of questions I ask on here.
Are they really all that intrusive,or probing.
I don't really think so, do you ?
None of us know who we are really talking to on here. So tread carefully, very carefully.
Not a very good post Froggy it has to be said.
Not a very good post Froggy it has to be said.
No it does come over the wrong way.
Sorry about that.
But this guy is just starting to really annoy me with his innuendos about me trying to steal all his secrets, whatever they could possibly be.
Tell me, are there really lots of others out there who think the same way ?
If so, then I will reassess what I'm asking about on here.
Be honest.
I think I might be able to handle it.
Sorry about that.
But this guy is just starting to really annoy me with his innuendos about me trying to steal all his secrets, whatever they could possibly be.
Tell me, are there really lots of others out there who think the same way ?
If so, then I will reassess what I'm asking about on here.
Be honest.
I think I might be able to handle it.
And anyway Dave don't just pick out the one line in my post you think went over the top a bit.
How about all the rest that hopefully didn't.?
Look this thread or any thread should not be about people's posting styles or personalities.
It should be about the real content of what is bbeing stated or asked.
In the final analysis, style means nothing.
Come on, you as a sports bettor, should know that better than most.
How about all the rest that hopefully didn't.?
Look this thread or any thread should not be about people's posting styles or personalities.
It should be about the real content of what is bbeing stated or asked.
In the final analysis, style means nothing.
Come on, you as a sports bettor, should know that better than most.
It's hard to say how many people think anything. I gave you a bit of a hard time myself previously, but ultimately you pay your money & you take your choice.
It's also true you never know who you are talking to. I could be a neighbour of yours, but we'd never find out as I'd never talk to people who don't already know what I do about anything betting related.
It's also true you never know who you are talking to. I could be a neighbour of yours, but we'd never find out as I'd never talk to people who don't already know what I do about anything betting related.
I find Froggies claim of his interest being primarily recreational believable. It's the rest of his guff that stretches my credulity.
For some reason he reminds me of Kevin Rudd - verbose and pompous.
For some reason he reminds me of Kevin Rudd - verbose and pompous.
Anyway I rest my case.
There will be those who see me as some sort of threat, and those that don't.
The first can freely ignore my posts, and the others will hopefully debate with me.
A simple elegant solution to the whole sorry mess.
Everybody can retire with their pride and egos intact.
No apologies required from anybody.
There will be those who see me as some sort of threat, and those that don't.
The first can freely ignore my posts, and the others will hopefully debate with me.
A simple elegant solution to the whole sorry mess.
Everybody can retire with their pride and egos intact.
No apologies required from anybody.
I've generally found Rocket to be quite a reasonable poster forum user, but sometimes peoples style of posting does rub people up the wrong way.
All said, it's not worth getting worked up about
All said, it's not worth getting worked up about
I'll give you another way to think of it frog. I reckon there are quite a few traders out there who can make between 100 and 500 GBP per hour in perhaps half a dozen of the most liquid sports. A 5k bank would be small to achieve this but not inconceivable.
FINE AS FROG HAIR Joined: 12 Mar 07
Replies: 1095 29 Oct 10 22:59
Anyway I rest my case.
There will be those who see me as some sort of threat, and those that don't.
The first can freely ignore my posts, and the others will hopefully debate with me.
A simple elegant solution to the whole sorry mess.
Everybody can retire with their pride and egos intact.
No apologies required from anybody.
Absolutely fine by me. And I'll ignore the veiled attempt at a thread in your earlier post as a parting gift.
Good luck in your search.
Replies: 1095 29 Oct 10 22:59
Anyway I rest my case.
There will be those who see me as some sort of threat, and those that don't.
The first can freely ignore my posts, and the others will hopefully debate with me.
A simple elegant solution to the whole sorry mess.
Everybody can retire with their pride and egos intact.
No apologies required from anybody.
Absolutely fine by me. And I'll ignore the veiled attempt at a thread in your earlier post as a parting gift.
Good luck in your search.
Fwiw, I would take offence at some of those remarks too, especially the liar one. I don't find anything wrong or suspicious at all in your posts fafh. But as we're speaking our minds here, I do find Compound's profits a little difficult to believe (no offence Compound, it's just my opinion and means nothing) but making consistent large gains by guessing which horses will win or lose a race pre off goes against everything I have learnt on here, but maybe that's just because I know I could never do it. I'll be thinking of Compound Magic as Compound Millionaire from now on 
Thank God for sanity returning in the form of both Bayes and Trevh addressing the thread title and content.
Bayes
I must admit I have never really thought about gambling from a return per hour basis. I'll have to think a bit more deeply about that to see if it really makes any true sense to me that is. I'm sure it does to you.
Trevh
I know absolutely nothing about selecting horses to win or lose for that matter,so his post is totally beyond me to evaluate from a personal perspective.
It still, however, only translates into 100 K a year though, not a fortune by any means in today's world.
Many real top line pro gamblers must do considerably better than that.
Bayes
I must admit I have never really thought about gambling from a return per hour basis. I'll have to think a bit more deeply about that to see if it really makes any true sense to me that is. I'm sure it does to you.
Trevh
I know absolutely nothing about selecting horses to win or lose for that matter,so his post is totally beyond me to evaluate from a personal perspective.
It still, however, only translates into 100 K a year though, not a fortune by any means in today's world.
Many real top line pro gamblers must do considerably better than that.
100k a year tax free is more like 170k as a job income though.
Frog have you given any more thought to my proposal? I have proof that I'm profitable, the my account section of my betfair account being one form of evidence.
Over time I have increasingly had to consider how I spend my time on Betfair. Five years ago I implemented my first automated strategy and the time I spent on this and other bots was undoubtably the most productive. However, the constant threat of different charging regimes, tax or even legislation meant that I have concentrated on making hay. Short-termism for sure, but right for me.
That's why I tend to think in terms of hourly rates.
That's why I tend to think in terms of hourly rates.
Avocado, if you can predict the winners of odds on football matches consistently, why do you need funding?
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