General Betting
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One of my systems (market making IR horses), which I have been running for several years, displays what to me seems an extraordinary characteristic.
Looking at the profitability profile for each month, it is without exception the same for every month. The first 5-10 days of the month it runs at breakeven, or marginally profitable, the next 10 days or so it is moderately profitable, with the last 10 days of the month providing the majority of the returns.
Further analysis shows that the shape of the market seems to definitely change in that I get more bets matched as the month goes on.
I've been asking myself for sometime why that is. Other than something to do with pay days, or on the "lunatic" fringe something to do with the moon, I'm drawing a blank.
Any ideas?
Looking at the profitability profile for each month, it is without exception the same for every month. The first 5-10 days of the month it runs at breakeven, or marginally profitable, the next 10 days or so it is moderately profitable, with the last 10 days of the month providing the majority of the returns.
Further analysis shows that the shape of the market seems to definitely change in that I get more bets matched as the month goes on.
I've been asking myself for sometime why that is. Other than something to do with pay days, or on the "lunatic" fringe something to do with the moon, I'm drawing a blank.
Any ideas?
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a lot of people get paid at the end of the month? just a guess
Is this based on bf prices? As someone said, pay cycles. Some would load up their account come pay day making the trading/pricing tighter. By Day 21, if volatility would increase. Once paid (27, 28 29) and bills to speed, into the account it goes to start the cycle again.
Pay days would certainly make some sense, and your pattern SS is plausible. I'm just surprised (although I probably shouldn't be) that it could have such a marked effect. Given that a lot of people are weekly paid, why don't I see a similar effect on Thurs/Fri/Sat etc.?
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